iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Cinnamon bun and apple pie are at least desserts. What is going on with chicken and waffles???

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

New Marist poll of Texas finds 61% say undocumented immigrants should stay in US if meet certain requirements. Only 35% say they should leave. A majority of noncollege white men (Trump base) says stay. Supports my case (see piece/thread below) that Trump opened way for new pro-immigrant consensus

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

In 2026 I started seeing syllabus links with the utm_source=chatgpt.com and I was like come on, at least pretend you found this article without the use of an LLM

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

tbh as someone who was doing a public policy master's program at the time and trying their best to follow the news closely, I had a really hard time figuring out what the real tariff rates ended up being. Trump making big announcements makes news but walking them back does not and this is a problem

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Dan Murphy @bungdan.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

RIP Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russian and Iran Act. b. 9/16/26, d. 10/9/26.

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Jay Willis @jaywillis.net · 09/10/2026

Kind of a buried lede in the results of this Supreme Court approval rating poll from Marquette: Overall support for Supreme Court expansion, which even Democratic politicians were dismissing as "radical" just a few years ago, is now at 53 percent today.marquette.edu/2026/09/marq...

Proposal Favor or oppose
Favor Oppose
Enforce strict ethics code for justices 89 10
Limited terms for justices 79 21
Increase number of justices 53 47
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey: Sept. 2-9, 2026

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Trying to imagine the fifth grader who has both heard of and actually enjoys head cheese

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Discontinued FoOoOods! 👻🎃 @discontinuedfoods.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

The ol' Oscar the Grouch special

A whimsical ingredient for a candy bar featuring such comical elements as a car seat, whale blubber, oil, shampoo, and broccoli

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ProPublica @propublica.org · 08/10/2026

The government doesn’t track how often immigration agents detain U.S. citizens. So ProPublica did. We’ve tallied more than 500 Americans held against their will in warrantless arrests and detentions during President Trump’s second term.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Trump is basically claiming that he pardoned a crook who didn't deserve it for purely political resasons. This alone is worthy of impeachment and removal; overall, Trump's abuse of power pardons are easy calls for legitimate impeachment and removal. Whether he brags about it or not.

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John Hickenlooper @hickenlooper.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

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Kyle Clark @kylec.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Six years ago this week, a fly attempted a brazen attack on VP Mike Pence during a live debate. Today, another fly (potentially an associate) attacked Sen. John Hickenlooper, leading Hick to slap his own face on television. These flies are a menace.

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

That's true, I think the volume of problematic people who came out of the Sanders campaign is probably higher than TYT, but TYT definitely produces problematic people more consistently

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

for Halloween this year Target is selling *squints* moldy pumpkins I guess

A pumpkin-shaped throw pillow on the shelf at Target. It is fuzzy and is various shades of dark green and brown. It looks like a pumpkin was colonized by the nastiest mold infection you've ever seen in your life.

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Clearly the Telmarines killed Father Christmas

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I also suspect electoral threshold is less of a factor than people think. Brazil's threshold is the same as eg Germany or Czech Republic but they have about three times as many parliamentary parties. Of course I'm pretty ignorant about this but it seems like other factors are contributing.

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

How many countries actually use a threshold that high? I'm looking at Wikipedia and it's saying the only country to use a threshold >=10% at the national level is Benin? Is that right?

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I can't believe Trump wants to take away the jobs of the guys who turn the big key at the cathedral to change the time twice a year

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Reposted by William Martindale (馬凱威)

Lisa Fazio @lkfazio.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Devistating. And against Congress's directive. SBE was included in the 26 budget and the NSF section states that "no directorate shall receive more than a 5 percent reduction relative to the fiscal year 2024 enacted level."

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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Again, you can always detect some faint embarrassment from Democrats when they talk about the ballroom, but “the president demolished a big part of the White House to build himself a palace with bribes from enemy powers” is, by an order of magnitude, the worst corruption scandal in US history

esquire.com

A Wealthy Russian Businessman Is Helping Fund Trump’s Stupid Ballroom. Nothing Sketchy About That, Right?

Surely, our president will face consequences for this insanity.

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Maybe this is actually a devious plan to make me practice my Chinese

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Some Chinese person surnamed Hong has accidentally given United Healthcare my phone number instead of their phone number and every week or so I get another call from their Chinese speaking call center from another confused worker trying to contact him about his insurance

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Reposted by William Martindale (馬凱威)

Jane Coaston @janecoaston.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

the funniest thing about the "we don't trust the media" people is that they will trust literally anyone else. like, if you have an image and text, they'll buy it. shaking keys at babies type logic.

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

man I thought Heidi Ganahl was bad but like seriously, are freaks, murderers, and nutjobs the only people willing to run in the Colorado Republican Party? When people started calling Barbara Kirkmeyer of all people "moderate" this year I felt like I was getting whiplash.

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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 01/10/2026

"they really believe it"/"they will try to do it"/"the promises are real" are things that most americans refuse to believe about politicians but if you take them seriously will help you predict political behavior more often than not

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I knew Victor Marx was a bad dude but I was not prepared for how sickening this whole thread was

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

That said Trump is only 8 years younger....

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I know it's a lot to ask but I would really appreciate if the president had more lucidity than my sick 88-year-old grandfather

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

on the contrary, the kind of person who would make a service this legally and morally sketchy could not help but write their site entirely with AI

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

My feeling is that these are still kind of acceptable in the IR literature but mostly in the policymaking side. Of course it's definitely more think tanks that publish this kind of thing but I still see journal articles along the lines of "some thoughts on the 3rd plenum" or whatever

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Reposted by William Martindale (馬凱威)

Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

There is a lot of "oh dear" to go around in the results of this very thorough Pew study on the issues with synthetic samples, but this strikes me as particularly "oh dear" www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...

AI polling results can lean on racial or partisan stereotypes

In many cases, our AI poll took beliefs or attitudes that are reasonably common among a particular subgroup and portrayed them as nearly ubiquitous. For example, our AI poll would indicate that:

97% of Hispanic adults are at least somewhat likely to follow the World Cup (while the actual share is 43%).

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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

this really is impeachable for any president, but really grotesque coming from a regime that cut life-saving development aid because they said it was not efficient

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

something something Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

On further interrogation I've found that the america.gov AI is completely unaware that it is doing this which definitely makes it creepier

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

It's a government version of the End Poem from Minecraft but for people who have never beat the game before (most people) it's a really creepy response to get from a chatbot lol

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Reposted by William Martindale (馬凱威)

jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026

"Replication crisis" reforms like preregistration & pre-analysis plans were developed to control false positives in experimental research. Does that work in observational studies? Our new paper in Sociological Methods & Research argues for a different approach. 🧵 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

A Replication Framework for Observational Research: From Specification Restriction to Specification Expansion
Jonathan Ben-Menachem https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8092-0848 jbenmenachem@gmail.com, Ari Galper https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7909-8837, and Nic Fishman
Abstract
Sociology has remained relatively insulated from debates about the “replication crisis.” Heeding calls to consider replication more deeply, we introduce a distinction between two types of research reforms that have emerged in the wake of the crisis: specification-restricting and specification-expanding reforms. Specification restriction is often promoted as a way to increase the repeatability of research findings by controlling false positives. We argue that this statistical justification is less compelling in observational contexts—where the assumptions licensing false-positive control are harder to sustain and rigid ex ante analytical commitments can instead enshrine fragile specifications—than in experimental contexts. We further argue that apparently low replication rates do not necessarily imply a high prevalence of false positive findings. Instead, we propose a replication framework centered on specification-expanding reforms, stronger incentives for confirmatory research, and meta-analysis. This approach equips sociologists to assess the repeatability of findings and build a more cumulative discipline.

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Ben Raderstorf @raders.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

This poll from Cook is bonkers. A *huge* plurality of voters (43% overall, 61% of Ds) want Dems to focus on changing the political system overall vs. just opposing (21%, 36% of Ds) or working with Trump (35%, 3% of Ds).

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Haven't been getting many Manny Rutinel ads where I live (a small town in the northern part of the district) which seems like a wasted opportunity in an election like this. The ads I do get mostly just paint Gabe Evans as a Trump Republican. Not as much description of Rutinel's policy.

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Surprisingly the Republican ads I get in CO-8 are pretty unified on messaging. They pretty much just paint Manny Rutinel as a socialist using the same three or four stances he took publicly before the current election, while painting Gabe Evans as a non-Trump Republican focused on affordability.

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

You should read Godzilla's Monsterpiece Theatre by Tom Scioli

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

is this the pivot to Asia we were promised

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derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

This is true. In 2016, I got into an argument with a gay man on a menswear forum. I've since made it my mission to make every man dress gay, thereby destroying his ability to tell who is actually gay and, ultimately, his chances of finding love. I built my social media following to achieve that goal

Someone on Twitter writes to me: "People should follow your advise if they want to look gay."

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Doro|河文 @faeydoro.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

White person shocks waiter with horrible mandarin, asked to eat with fork and knife, they could at least have given me a spoon

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William Martindale (馬凱威) @wijama.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

For real. I asked my dad, who is well into his late 60s, what he thought about the discourse and he'd literally never encountered this opinion before. Like, it's an office. People drink coffee.

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