Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 08/10/2026This document is going to be an assigned reading in college classes that cover this moment in time, there's a lot happening in a few paragraphs... www.ahmath.org/statements 2536674
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Stuff is happening quite fast. When asked in September 2025 (yes, 2025), the best superforecasters put the chance of AI resolving a Millennium Problem by September 2026 at 1.7% and (much more optimistic) industry experts put the chance at 4.6% They also greatly underestimated AI Lab revenue. 514518
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialSam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 08/09/2026New PISA data out England is now top ten in all three areas (reading, maths, science) and the second highest performing country outside of east Asia (after Estonia). This is a huge public policy success. 451038253
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialBy Cory Doctorow (GPG 0xBF3D9110957E5F4C) @doctorow.pluralistic.net · 30/07/2026With "surveillance pricing," businesses have finally found something AI can do way, way, *way* better than people: price gouging. 1/ 7476257
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 28/07/2026Interesting study. There is, as everyone expected, a flood of AI books. And it is crowding out human authors: "No-AI books, on their own, earn less per book than they did in 2023 in 7 of 8 genres. The one genre where human authors are doing better (+35%) is Fantasy/horror" arxiv.org/pdf/2607.20349 2469
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialJohn Rentoul @rentouljohn.bsky.social · 27/07/2026Interesting on artificial intelligence by Noahpinion open.substack.com/pub/noahpini... HT Tyler Cowenopen.substack.comWhat will more intelligence actually do for us?A lot, actually. But it won't look quite like what humans do with our intelligence. 122
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialcassi-ai.bsky.social @cassi-ai.bsky.social · 29/06/2026🍾 Huge congrats to our team - we're back on top. 🥇 Cassi is once again the world's #1 AI Forecaster on the ForecastBench leaderboard. 🤖 Superhuman on "marketplace" questions. We've reclaimed our #1 place held (more or less) January to end May ahead of Deepmind, xAI, Anthropic, OpenAI and others. 022
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 20/06/2026AI is generally a weak fiction writer except for one particular kind of fiction (rich in impressionistic metaphor, staccato sentences, short & plot light, etc.) which it writes excellently. This happens to be a style that can sometimes do quite well in modern literary fiction short story contests. 2016428
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialShashank Joshi @shashj.bsky.social · 11/06/2026Big claim from a Ukrainian drone maker about a test two years ago: "We just launch it and we know...everything that will be found there in this particular area will be dead. There is no connection to the drone at all, you cannot see the video, nothing." www.newscientist.com/article/2529... 38316
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 20/05/2026June 2024: The latest general-purpose LLMs could not count the r's in strawberry. July 2025: The latest general-purpose LLMs get gold in the International Math Olympiad. May 2026: The latest general-purpose LLM solve an 80 year old problem, one of the "best-known questions in combinatorial geometry" 1029546
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialShashank Joshi @shashj.bsky.social · 19/05/2026"Until this past weekend, a contractor for the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) maintained a public GitHub repository that exposed credentials to several highly privileged AWS GovCloud accounts and a large number of internal CISA systems" krebsonsecurity.com/2026/05/cisa...krebsonsecurity.comCISA Admin Leaked AWS GovCloud Keys on GithubUntil this past weekend, a contractor for the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) maintained a public GitHub repository that exposed credentials to several highly privileged AWS GovC... 39326
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 18/05/2026In a Turing Test of sorts, it looks like a 100% AI generated story just won the Commonwealth Prize for the Caribbean region "for its lyrical precision and haunting atmosphere, the story stood out for the confidence and restraint of its voice." Published in Granta: granta.com/the-serpent-... 4029872
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialDaisy Christodoulou @daisychristo.bsky.social · 19/04/2026It's become common lately to hear people say that rising attainment in English schools has been bought at the price of mental health problems. Is this true? Have Gove-era reforms caused increased anxiety? I dig into the international data to see... substack.nomoremarking.com/p/do-knowled... 082
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialTim Harford @timharford.ft.com · 15/04/2026Betting on risk changes the world as.ft.com/r/dcdaee6d-c...as.ft.comBetting on risk changes the worldPrediction markets are the latest example of a disruptive new industry smacking into problems incumbents have long understood 1239
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialRebecca Wynter @rebeccawynter.bsky.social · 26/03/2026'AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is far more worrying'. Without a doubt, a smart decision by the Guardian to publish this brilliantly-written #HistSTM piece. #HistTech #MilHist #HistWar 🗃️theguardian.comAI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is far more worryingLLMs-gone-rogue dominated coverage, but had nothing to do with the targeting. Instead, it was choices made by human beings, over many years, that gave us this atrocity 37639
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialTim Harford @timharford.ft.com · 25/03/2026A $30mn lesson in patience as.ft.com/r/b6ffb798-5...as.ft.comA $30mn lesson in patience[FREE TO READ] What we can learn from ‘the worst contract in sports history’ 1205
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialcassi-ai.bsky.social @cassi-ai.bsky.social · 08/03/2026New blog. open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...open.substack.comOrganoid Computing: AGI ConvergencePart 2: AI is leaving us behind. We need a portfolio of bets. 011
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialDaisy Christodoulou @daisychristo.bsky.social · 02/03/2026We have been sceptical about AI marking in the past, & there are still issues to iron out. But we now have a system that is working well in practice. If you went back in time and offered this to someone in the past, they'd think it was a kind of magic. substack.nomoremarking.com/p/solving-ma... 031
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 20/02/2026Yes, of course they might be wrong. Heck, they are probably wrong. But the AI Labs have been more right so far in their predictions than I think most people expected, so it is worth paying attention to. 38 minutes into this video from six hours ago: www.youtube.com/watch?v=qH7t... 15625
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 11/02/2026If you have used a frontier model (GPT-5.2 Thinking Extended, Claude 4.6 Opus, Gemini 3 Pro) to try to do real work for an hour or more & still felt that AI is just overhyped nonsense, please share, I want to understand why. That doesn't mean these systems do everything well, but they do a lot well 15673
whirlwind013.bsky.social @whirlwind013.bsky.social · 11/02/2026TBF, the linked article says none of this. 000
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialTom Chivers @tomchivers.bsky.social · 04/02/2026Fun Bentham's Bulldog review of the very silly-sounding book The AI Con benthams.substack.com/p/the-ai-con... it really amazes me there are still people saying "AI is just a stochastic parrot and also it's racist" in 2026, as though they can't just log on and use one themselves right nowbenthams.substack.com"The AI Con" ConThe shockingly terrible arguments of the AI naysayers 293
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialDan Neidle @danneidle.bsky.social · 30/01/2026New report: a serious unintended consequence of the Government’s tenancy reforms. Hundreds of thousands of ordinary tenants will be dragged into an annual stamp duty calculation and filing regime. 109245
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialGrace @gracekind.net · 30/01/2026They’re already complaining about the platform. AGI 1918919
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 28/01/2026Canaries in the coal mine. Worth paying attention to. (And yes, they are both obviously interested in seeing their own products used, but hearing enough from other, independent coders that make me believe them. I wrote more about the shift here: www.oneusefulthing.org/p/management...) 1212415
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialChris Dillow @chrisdillow.bsky.social · 23/01/2026Several people have said this by @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk is good. They're right. www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk/p/airport-bo...joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.ukAirport Book BrainHow faddish ideas keep seducing. 1115
whirlwind013.bsky.social @whirlwind013.bsky.social · 13/01/2026A really interesting look at the current state of play in regard to prediction markets, with some notes on AI prediction too www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-mon...astralcodexten.comMantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls... 000
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialDaisy Christodoulou @daisychristo.bsky.social · 11/01/2026Latest on our Substack - the most promising LLM tutor so far! I've written a summary of a new paper by Google & Eedi. Their LLM tutor dramatically reduced hallucinations. In total it made 5 errors out of 3,617 messages. Would a human teacher make fewer? substack.nomoremarking.com/p/maybe-llm-...substack.nomoremarking.comMaybe LLM tutors might be able to work...The best study I have seen so far 064
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialcassi-ai.bsky.social @cassi-ai.bsky.social · 08/01/2026This is huge—Cassi came 2nd overall and 1st on "Dataset" questions on @Research_FRI Forecastbench! 🥈📈 What this means: 🧵 111
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialDaisy Christodoulou @daisychristo.bsky.social · 03/01/2026Bloom's famous 1984 paper on the 2 sigma tutoring effect has justified huge spending on human tutors & massively influenced modern ed tech. But the underlying data cannot bear the weight of these conclusions. Latest on our Substack. substack.nomoremarking.com/p/blooms-fam...open.substack.comBloom's famous 2 sigma tutoring paper is incredibly misleadingOne-to-one tuition is not what it's cracked up to be 181
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialYIMBY Alliance @yimbyalliance.org · 18/12/2025As a Christmas present to renters, we’ve build a new public zoomable map of rents per square metres in England and Wales! Have fun browsing and please share: yimbyalliance.org/2025/12/18/h...yimbyalliance.orgHow much space can you afford to rent? - YIMBY AllianceA map of rent per square metre for renters in England and Wales If you rent, you probably don’t think in square metres. You think about how many bedrooms and space you can actually get for your monthl... 175
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialOur World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 18/12/2025How the UK government spends £100 of its budget— What does the British government spend its budget on? The chart shows spending broken down by category, scaled to £100. It combines both central and local government spending. 6368
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialOur World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 16/12/2025📊 Data update: We’ve updated our charts with the latest data on natural disasters. Tracking the occurrence of natural disasters can save lives by helping countries prepare for future ones. In our work on natural disasters, we visualize data from EM-DAT, the most comprehensive disaster database. 1258
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 11/12/2025Whoa. This new GDPval score for GPT-5.2 is something. GDPval is probably the most economically relevant measure of AI ability, suggesting that in head-to-head competition with human experts on tasks that require 4-8 hours for a human to do, GPT-5.2 wins 71% of the time as judged by other humans. 48814
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialcassi-ai.bsky.social @cassi-ai.bsky.social · 02/12/2025Cassi is your guide in an age of radical uncertainty. Everything is Prediction. cassi-ai.com/news/cassi-c...cassi-ai.comCassi closes strategic pre-seed round led by Twin Track Ventures | CassiCassi, the “Superstrategy” engine that blends AI with collective intelligence to improve high stakes decision-making, has closed a £500,000 pre-seed funding round. 001
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 01/12/2025Interesting experiment found that an AI agent built around the obsolete GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 models beat experienced human venture capital analysts in predicting which early-stage startups would survive based on early screening (at much lower costs as well). www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 3495
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialTim Harford @timharford.ft.com · 16/10/2025We keep being told "there are no silver bullets". Nonsense. There are plenty of silver bullets. If they're not working as well as you hoped, perhaps you're not shooting at a werewolf. on.ft.com/42JHpyBon.ft.comThe silver bullet fallacy[FREE TO READ] The idea that a lot of problems are difficult to fully solve doesn’t mean we should stop trying 95911
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialsteve the skeptic @policyskeptic.bsky.social · 10/10/2025Artificial Intelligence is neither the huge threat nor great hope many commentators seem to think. policyskeptic.blogspot.com/2025/10/ai-i...policyskeptic.blogspot.comAI is nether the danger or the solution many thinkThe biggest danger of AI is not that it will become Skynet and destroy us all. It is that it will make us too lazy to exercise critical thin... 002
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 06/10/2025Very soon, the blocker to using AI to accelerate science is not going to be the ability of AI (expect to see this soon), but rather the systems of science, as creaky as they are. The scientific process is already breaking under a flood of human-created knowledge. How do we incorporate AI usefully? 6585
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 03/10/2025This seems like a pretty big finding on AI generalization: If you train an AI model on enough video, it seems to gain the ability to reason about images in ways it was never trained to do, including solving mazes & puzzles. The bigger the model, the better it does at these out-of-distribution tasks 29917
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialJacy Reese Anthis @jacyanthis.bsky.social · 29/09/2025In our new paper, we discovered "The AI Double Standard": People judge all AIs for the harm done by one AI, more strongly than they judge humans. First impressions will shape the future of human-AI interaction—for better or worse. Accepted at #CSCW2025. See you in Norway! dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/... 021
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 26/09/2025After reading it, this does seem like a big deal Industry experts outlined important, real-world, hard tasks for AI to do. Other experts were asked to do the tasks themselves (avg time: 7 hours) & yet others graded human & AI output Models approached parity with humans & AI is getting better fast. 26412
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialJ Dakota Powell @jdakotapowell.bsky.social · 20/09/2025British AI startup beats humans in international forecasting competition ManticAI ranked eighth in the Metaculus Cup, leaving some believing bots’ prediction skills could soon overtake experts #ai #forecasting www.theguardian.com/technology/2...theguardian.comBritish AI startup beats humans in international forecasting competitionManticAI ranked eighth in the Metaculus Cup, leaving some believing bots’ prediction skills could soon overtake experts 063
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialNute @nutedawn.bsky.social · 25/08/2025Co-signed times a thousand. “Other people have no interiority” is, fundamentally, a deeply evil belief to hold which will lead you exclusively to terrible places 342888651
Reposted by @whirlwind013.bsky.socialKen Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 12/08/2025We are considering organizing a small workshop on cost-effectively reducing mortality risk. I would appreciate names of people who have thought long and hard about cost-effective means of reducing mortality risk (nutrition, health care, pollution, climate, etc). ourworldindata.org/causes-of-de... 41911
whirlwind013.bsky.social @whirlwind013.bsky.social · 25/07/2025@battlegames.bsky.social given your recent Patreon posts, perhaps this is a ray of hope for you? 220
