iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

Very glad to have this piece with @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social published - even several months after me leaving Carbon Brief! This article was more than a year in the making, and very timely now given the ongoing heatwaves. Read more below ⬇️

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

(not April fool's - just an unfortunate start date 😅)

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

🚨Personal News: As of today, I have started as the Impact Research and Evidence Manager at SBTi. I will be working at the intersection of research, comms and strategy, evaluating SBTi’s impact on reducing emissions. Thanks to everyone at @carbonbrief.org for making my time there so memorable!

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

Another year, another (territorial) emissions drop for the UK See our analysis below ⬇️

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Josh Gabbatiss @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

Trump's aid cuts are bad news for international climate finance. I looked through the available data to work out how bad... Around 8% of the climate finance pledged to developing countries by rich countries last year came from the US. Those funds are now under threat. ➡️ buff.ly/BuxwfSL

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

I enjoyed writing this week's #DeBriefed newsletter for @carbonbrief.org! As part of this, I wrote a piece that takes you behind the scenes of how @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social and I went about doing our recent analysis on UK airport expansion. Find the full newsletter below. ⬇️

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Orla Dwyer @orladwyer.carbonbrief.org · 14/02/2025

In the past two years, floods ruined soybeans growing in Brazil, a hurricane destroyed millions of $$ worth of crops in Jamaica and drought hit Sri Lankan rice This new interactive map gives a snapshot of how extreme weather is damaging crops, feat. 100 news stories from 2023-24 buff.ly/42Rqf2D

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Daisy Dunne @daisydunne.carbonbrief.org · 10/02/2025

NEW: Just 10/195 countries signed up to the Paris Agreement met the UN’s 10 Feb deadline to submit their 2035 climate pledges UN climate chief Simon Stiell said latecomers must submit by September

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Daisy Dunne @daisydunne.carbonbrief.org · 04/02/2025

In light of the Guardian's front page today, just reupping my story from August reporting that Labour could approve up to *13* new oil and gas projects like Rosebank These are projects that have a license but still need to obtain development consent from gov www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-...

carbonbrief.org

Analysis: UK could approve 13 new oil and gas projects despite North Sea pledge - Carbon Brief

The UK government could approve 13 new oil and gas projects in the North Sea, with the fuel produced emitting 350m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e)

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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 30/01/2025

New runways at London airports would result in cumulative emissions of around 92m tonnes of extra CO2e by 2050, if the number of flights increases in line with their operating company targets. Carbon Brief’s analysis covered by Anushka Asthana on @itvpeston.bsky.social ➡️ buff.ly/3WJ9Ut1

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Prof. Ian Walker @ianwalker.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Overtaking what looks like a Formula 1 car is really making the point

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Not sure on the single most effective way to achieve this but some of the options that have been proposed include things like a kerosene/jet fuel tax (flights currently not taxed on their fuel), a frequent flyer levy and banning short haul flights where rail alternatives exist.

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Our new analysis on UK airport expansion! Note: the comparison to forests is very much a hypothetical comparison that is meant to highlight the scale of these expansions. We cannot just tree plant our way out of any potential expansion of fossil fuel use (although more trees is always nice!).

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Josh Gabbatiss @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

NEW ANALYSIS - With the UK government poised to back the expansion of Heathrow, Gatwick and Luton, we crunched the numbers on the climate impact of these plans. The UK would need to plant a new forest 2X the size of London to offset the emissions from all the extra flights 🌳✈️ ➡️ buff.ly/4hsYYrt

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Dr. Efi Rousi @efou.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

This one sounds like a cool job!

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Molly Lempriere @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org · 23/01/2025

Solar and wind growth in the EU has pushed fossil fuel power to a 40-year low in 2024, with solar alone overtaking coal generation for the first time, according to our analysis of new figures from energy analysts @ember-energy.org

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Amy Westervelt @amywestervelt.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

I assume most people know this, but seems important to point out basic truths at this moment in time. There is no energy emergency in the U.S. The U.S. is the world's top producer of oil and gas at the moment, and the top exporter of gas, and U.S. oil and gas producers are making record profits.

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Apply apply apply! Feel free to reach out if you have any related questions!

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Brilliant documentary - would also recommend everyone to watch this. It's only 25 minutes long and will likely leave a much longer impression on you. Fardowsa is such an inspiration!

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Dr. Sandra Steingraber 🏳️‍🌈 @ssteingraber1.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

A few years ago, my friend, outspoken climate scientist Peter Kalmus @climatehuman.bsky.social, moved his family out of LA because he could extrapolate from the data. This week the house where he raised his kids burned down. His words for us all (gift link): 🧪 www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/o...

nytimes.com

Opinion | As a Climate Scientist, I Knew It Was Time to Leave Los Angeles (Gift Article)

After the Bobcat Fire, L.A. no longer felt safe.

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Adam Vaughan @adamvaughan.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

Britain’s electricity supplies were the cleanest in history last year as fossil-fuel power generation sank to its lowest since 1955, the year Rock Around the Clock topped the charts www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 02/01/2025

+++NEW ANALYSIS+++ UK electricity was the cleanest ever in 2024, with emissions per unit falling by more than two-thirds in a decade Highlights: 🏭end of coal power after 142yrs 🔥fossil fuels at record-low 29% share 🌄renewables at record-high 45% www.carbonbrief.org/... 1/9

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

Our NEW analysis - just released! The carbon intensity of UK electricity was only 124gCO2/kWh in 2024, down 70% from 419gCO2/kWh in 2014.

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Nat Bullard @nathanielbullard.com · 29/11/2024

One word: Plastics. www.carbonbrief.org/five-charts-... h/t @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org and the excellent @carbonbrief.org team

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

*Assuming that production reduction continues linearly at the same rate between 2040-50 as between 2025-40 and that the emissions intensity of plastics stays the same throughout (simplified assumption as likely to see at least some reduction through decarbonisation measures - see below). 5/END

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

Thanks to Dan Gocher for the useful daily insights from on the ground in Busan! Only a few days to go until negotiations wrap up on Sunday! Read more of our analysis in the article we released earlier this week with @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org: buff.ly/4g6vCP3 4/

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

In the chair's latest draft treaty text that came out this morning... this Panama proposal has been added as an option under Article 6 on 'Supply/Sustainable Production'. Let's see if it makes it into the final text. buff.ly/3ZtNOwD 3/

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

Building on this, on Weds, Panama published a new proposal on supply, backed by nearly 100 other countries. It calls on countries to set a global target "to reduce the production primary plastic polymers to sustainable levels". Momentum seems to be building. buff.ly/49jT7lp 2/

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

Is a plastic production reduction target on the cards at #INC-5? The PSIDS group submitted a proposal on Tues that calls for a 40x40 target (40%⬇️ on 2025 levels by 2040): buff.ly/4eUAXrs We show that 40x40 could cut plastics cumu. emissions between 2024-50 by half* wrt to BAU. 1/

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Oui, désolé pour ça, il y avait une erreur dans l'original. bsky.app/profile/vern...

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

The 1.5C temperature goal from the Paris Agreement refers to a longer term global average temperature so we have not reached that yet even though we have passed 1.5C over the last year. See this piece from my colleague Zeke: www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the...

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

The article has now also been updated with the corrected chart:

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

The Karali 20% figure only applies to the emissions excluding end of life so around 0.48 GtCO2 from extraction. This figure also includes extraction emissions from coal (not just oil/gas) which is now a key feedstock and energy source for plastics. eg see here So that could maybe explain?

nature.com

Growing environmental footprint of plastics driven by coal combustion - Nature Sustainability

Despite concerns about plastics in the environment, not enough attention is paid to the impacts of the various stages of the plastics value chain globally. This study finds that most environmental and...

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Apologies, there was an error with the world extraction emissions in the original chart that I discovered this evening when looking into this (the sectoral values got mixed up). Have updated the chart here with the correct value which is ~2 GtCO2 for oil and gas extraction. bsky.app/profile/vern...

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

We ended up using data from the UNEP Gap Report as a credible source but the way the sectors are divided there doesn't necessarily lend itself well to such comparisons that include all lifecycle emissions.

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Agreed, think it would be fairer if we compared to lifecycle emissions of aviation, even if most of aviation's emissions are likely to come from fuel use. If know you of a good data source for this, let us know. That was one of our challenges when trying to do the comparisons for the chart.

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Note: thread was re-uploaded to correct an error in the first chart comparing plastics emissions. The buildings and oil and gas extraction emissions were not correctly plotted in the original version. Apologies for that. The article will be updated as well accordingly.

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Reason 6: This treaty will define future successes. Plastics are where climate was in 1992 with UNFCCC, defining the rules for future COPs to follow. If the treaty is vague and actions not legally binding, future success could be limited. Getting this right, inc voting rules, is critical. 7/

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Reason 5: Getting plastics to net zero will be tricky without addressing production. A net zero plastics sector under BAU would require: - Huge scale up of alternative feedstocks - limited by biomass and renewables availability - V. high plastic recycling rates - challenging in practice 6/

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Reason 4: The treaty could set a cap on global plastics production, which could bring down emissions significantly. Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4: future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU. 5/

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Reason 3: Under BAU, plastics emissions are expected to double by 2050 and this could use up half our remaining carbon budget for 1.5C. This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year. Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year. 4/

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Reason 2: Plastics are driving the growth in oil demand and so propping up fossil fuel use Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil. According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates. 3/

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Reason 1: Because plastics are a large source of GHGs - around 5% of global emissions. Across their whole lifecycle, plastics emit around 2.7 bn tCO2e per year. This puts them above energy use related emissions from oil and gas extraction and aviation. [UPDATE: corrected chart] 2/

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

There was a mistake in this chart so it has been removed. The corrected chart is as follows: Lifecycle Plastics emissions are still greater than energy related emissions in oil and gas and aviation, but only 75% of the emissions of energy use in buildings. This will be corrected in the article.

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Yes, that is right. Could have clarified that more clearly on the chart or include estimates of upstream emissions for aviation to make it a more fair comparison. But still plastics likely to be greater. Will update the chart so its clearer - thanks!

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Josh Gabbatiss @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

To understand global south anger at the COP29 climate finance goal it's crucial to understand two key numbers. 1️⃣ "At least" $300bn/year - developed nations agreed to "take the lead" in mobilising this for developing countries 2️⃣ $1.3tn/year - a wider, vaguer goal They sound pretty big! But...

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