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Dr Verner Viisainen

@vernerviisas.bsky.social
3K followers 792 following 69 posts

Impact Research @sciencebasedtargets.org ex-@carbonbrief.org ex-Green Alliance PhD in Engineering he/him Personal account. Views expressed are my own and not those of my employer

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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
*Assuming that production reduction continues linearly at the same rate between 2040-50 as between 2025-40 and that the emissions intensity of plastics stays the same throughout (simplified assumption as likely to see at least some reduction through decarbonisation measures - see below). 5/END
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Thanks to Dan Gocher for the useful daily insights from on the ground in Busan! Only a few days to go until negotiations wrap up on Sunday! Read more of our analysis in the article we released earlier this week with @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org: buff.ly/4g6vCP3 4/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
In the chair's latest draft treaty text that came out this morning... this Panama proposal has been added as an option under Article 6 on 'Supply/Sustainable Production'. Let's see if it makes it into the final text. buff.ly/3ZtNOwD 3/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Building on this, on Weds, Panama published a new proposal on supply, backed by nearly 100 other countries. It calls on countries to set a global target "to reduce the production primary plastic polymers to sustainable levels". Momentum seems to be building. buff.ly/49jT7lp 2/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Is a plastic production reduction target on the cards at #INC-5? The PSIDS group submitted a proposal on Tues that calls for a 40x40 target (40%⬇️ on 2025 levels by 2040): buff.ly/4eUAXrs We show that 40x40 could cut plastics cumu. emissions between 2024-50 by half* wrt to BAU. 1/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
The 1.5C temperature goal from the Paris Agreement refers to a longer term global average temperature so we have not reached that yet even though we have passed 1.5C over the last year. See this piece from my colleague Zeke: www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the...
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
The article has now also been updated with the corrected chart:
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 6: This treaty will define future successes. Plastics are where climate was in 1992 with UNFCCC, defining the rules for future COPs to follow. If the treaty is vague and actions not legally binding, future success could be limited. Getting this right, inc voting rules, is critical. 7/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 5: Getting plastics to net zero will be tricky without addressing production. A net zero plastics sector under BAU would require: - Huge scale up of alternative feedstocks - limited by biomass and renewables availability - V. high plastic recycling rates - challenging in practice 6/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 4: The treaty could set a cap on global plastics production, which could bring down emissions significantly. Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4: future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU. 5/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 3: Under BAU, plastics emissions are expected to double by 2050 and this could use up half our remaining carbon budget for 1.5C. This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year. Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year. 4/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 2: Plastics are driving the growth in oil demand and so propping up fossil fuel use Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil. According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates. 3/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 1: Because plastics are a large source of GHGs - around 5% of global emissions. Across their whole lifecycle, plastics emit around 2.7 bn tCO2e per year. This puts them above energy use related emissions from oil and gas extraction and aviation. [UPDATE: corrected chart] 2/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
There was a mistake in this chart so it has been removed. The corrected chart is as follows: Lifecycle Plastics emissions are still greater than energy related emissions in oil and gas and aviation, but only 75% of the emissions of energy use in buildings. This will be corrected in the article.
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Thanks to my CB colleagues: - @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org for the article text. - Kerry, @jjgoodman.bsky.social and @tomoprater.carbonbrief.org for charts and visuals. And Daniela Duran Gonzalez (of CIEL) for her insights. Read the full article below ⬇️ buff.ly/4g6vCP3 8/End
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 6: This treaty will define future successes. Plastics are where climate was in 1992 with UNFCCC, defining the rules for future COPs to follow. If the treaty is vague and actions not legally binding, future success could be limited. Getting this right, inc voting rules, is critical. 7/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 5: Getting plastics to net zero will be tricky without addressing production. A net zero plastics sector under BAU would require: - Huge scale up of alternative feedstocks - limited by biomass and renewables availability - V. high plastic recycling rates - challenging in practice 6/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 4: The treaty could set a cap on global plastics production, which could bring down emissions significantly. Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4: Future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU. 5/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 3: Under BAU, plastics emissions are expected to double by 2050 and this could use up half our remaining carbon budget for 1.5C. This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year. Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year. 4/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 2: Plastics are driving the growth in oil demand and so propping up fossil fuel use Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil. According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates. 3/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Amidst #COP29, you might have missed it but, the most important environmental treaty since the #Paris is being negotiated THIS week! At the #INC-5 in Busan, countries are hoping to strike an agreement on a global treaty to reduce #plastic pollution. But why is this relevant for climate? A 🧵 1/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 4: The treaty could set a cap on global plastics production, which could bring down emissions significantly. Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4: Future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU. 5/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 3: Under BAU, plastics emissions are expected to double by 2050 and this could use up half our remaining carbon budget for 1.5C. This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year. Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year. 4/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
REASON 2: Plastics are driving the growth in oil demand and so propping up fossil fuel use Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil. According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates. 3/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Reason 1: Because plastics are a large source of GHGs - around 5% of global emissions. Across their whole lifecycle, plastics emit around 2.7 bn tCO2e per year. This puts them above aviation, oil and gas extraction and energy use in buildings. 2/
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
FOSSIL FUELS mentioned! #COP29 The first draft negotiating text on the UAE dialogue dropped this morning! And the #COP28 outcome wording on 'transition away from fossil fuels' is in there! PROGRESS! Follow our text tracker to keep up to date on new docs: www.carbonbrief.org/interactive-...
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
New #COP29 analysis from me and @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org: Had a fun time analysing delegate titles to infer their gender (not possible in all cases eg Dr) ⚖️Turns out that the avg. delegation going to COP29 is more gender balanced than ever before! - at 60% male, 40% (excl. non-gendered titles) ⬇️
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 31/10/2024
Something to bear in mind ahead of next week's #USelection: ⚠️ A #Trump win could add 4bn tonnes to US emissions by 2030 Based on analysis we did in March when #Biden was still the likely Dem. nominee But analysis still stands with #Harris as new nominee www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-tru...
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 22/10/2024
☀️🇨🇴COP16 is in full swing! Since yesterday, 9 new documents have been added to the tracker. One new doc on 'Capacity building and development', has 53 brackets yet to be resolved. Still a long way to go in the negotiations. @giulianaviglione.bsky.social ⬇️ www.carbonbrief.org/interactive-...
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 21/10/2024
Thanks to one of our readers for flagging this. The original solar capacity chart had an error (for year 2025 in the WEO 2024 projection) - and has now been updated in the article (might require hard refresh of the page) and below
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 09/10/2024
"If I can simplify this beautiful story into two words: ‘China’ and ‘Solar’" - Fatih Birol, head of IEA New IEA Renewables 2024 report finds that between now and 2030: - 🇨🇳 is set to account for ~60% of all new renewables capacity - Solar PV ☀️ set to account for ~80% of all new renewables capacity
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 09/02/2024
Labour's revised green spending pledge, compared: 47% less total spend vs £28bn/yr 74% less new spend vs £28bn/yr 29% less total spend vs ramp to £28bn/yr 56% less new spend vs ramp to £28bn/yr 47% more total spend vs current govt spend Take your pick
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Dr Verner Viisainen @vernerviisas.bsky.social · 12/01/2024
🥳Some birthday good news! The IEA and my colleague @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social show that: 🇪🇺new renewables built in last 5 years are enough to power whole EU 🥅the world could reach the tripling of renewables goal by 2030 in the IEA 'accelerated' scenario Read ⬇️ www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-wor...
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