iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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BeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

CBS staff, you have one job and that is to incept Bari Weiss into believing she can win over Isaac Chotiner.

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Andrew Gordon @andrewgordon.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

New preprint out today (osf.io/preprints/ps...). We tested whether AI agents are actually infiltrating online surveys. Spoiler alert: they aren't Thread 🧵 [1/9]

osf.io

OSF

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Tommy Siegel @tommysiegel.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

the types of podcasts: a guide

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Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

👀 Reuters/Ipsos poll: Trump’s approval rating on the economy has sunk to 29%. Lower than Biden’s lowest rating. Far lower than Trump’s first-term lowest.

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Tyler T Reny @tylerreny.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

I am chairing the Emerging Scholar Award committee for the APSA EPOVB section this year. Send in your submissions (self-nominations welcomed!) with a cv to me and the committee (@wzcmarsh.bsky.social and Holli Semetko) by March 1 for consideration! More info here: apsanet.org/membership/o...

apsanet.org

Section32 - American Political Science Association (APSA)

Elections, Public Opinion, and Voting Behavior (Section 32) The purpose of this section is to promote interest in teaching and research on elections,

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Tyler T Reny @tylerreny.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

To clarify a question I've been getting: sending a CV with your nomination is sufficient, no need to send a nominating letter!

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Tyler T Reny @tylerreny.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

apsanet.org

Section32 - American Political Science Association (APSA)

Elections, Public Opinion, and Voting Behavior (Section 32) The purpose of this section is to promote interest in teaching and research on elections,

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Tyler T Reny @tylerreny.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

Any other political scientists getting these weird emails from thelighthousecommunity@proton.me?

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Tyler T Reny @tylerreny.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

New article out (w Marcel R, Ben N, and David S) in @pnas.org. We show that young folks who signal interest in becoming cops hold more conservative views on race, multiculturalism, gender, and sexuality, etc.than their peers intending careers in other fields www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

pnas.org

Late adolescents entering college intending a career as police officers hold more right-leaning views than their peers | PNAS

One longstanding explanation for bias and excessive force in policing is selection—the assertion that those who select to work in law enforcement a...

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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 17/11/2025

It takes a long time to get detailed precinct-level data for a presidential election. We're now at 99 percent complete. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

nytimes.com

An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2024 Election (Gift Article)

See how your neighborhood voted on our interactive, precinct-level results map of the presidential election.

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Marcel Roman @mfroman.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

Our @apsrjournal.bsky.social article is now in print! We develop a theory to explain why the public doesn't become more prosocial toward LGBTQ+ people after illegitimate anti-LGBTQ+ violence and provide causal, externally valid, evidence for the theory across 4 studies doi.org/10.1017/S000...

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Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

New today at Science Advances from @kshoub.bsky.social and me. We revisit the question of whether a local tragedy (mass shooting) influences voter behavior. They do, at least at the local level, with some important caveats and implications for policy. Short thread... www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

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Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Engagement-based #algorithms amplify intergroup hostility + moral-emotional content, leading it to be overrepresented in your feed This leads us to falsely perceive that people want to see this kind of content and share more of it. This technology fuels false polarization: osf.io/preprints/os...

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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

This is an excellent review article discussing open questions/challenges in causality and causal inference. arxiv.org/pdf/2508.17099

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Cory McCartan @corymccartan.com · 21/10/2025

A few weeks ago I shared a new WP on doing ecological inference—learning individual relationships from aggregate data, such as vote choice by race from precinct data. Excited now to introduce `seine`, our open-source R package for doing EI easily and efficiently! corymccartan.com/seine/

seine: Semiparametric Ecological Inference
Ecological inference (EI) is the statistical problem of learning individual-level associations from aggregate-level data. Without certain identifying assumptions and proper estimation methods, researchers can easily draw incorrect conclusions from aggregate data, finding patterns where none exist, missing important individual-level patterns, or even concluding an effect runs in the opposite direction than it actually does. This is known as the ecological fallacy.

The seine package allows researchers to perform modern ecological inference quickly, accurately, and transparently.

Double/debiased machine learning allows for controlling for confounding covariates, which increases the plausibility of identifying assumptions. Machine learning can be used to estimate the key regression model and avoid strong parametric assumptions made by existing EI methods.
Sensitivity analysis and benchmarking let researchers understand how violations of their assumptions will affect results.
A tidy interface makes the package modular and easy to use, and works well with pipe-based workflows.
Minimal dependencies and efficient estimation routines keep everything fast and lightweight.

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Tyler T Reny @tylerreny.bsky.social · 01/10/2025

📢 New paper w @mfroman.bsky.social and Ben Newman: Why do some conservative White Americans support abortion? It's not gender or religion. They want to slow the growth of disliked out-groups. bit.ly/4mFYYXd

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Tyler T Reny @tylerreny.bsky.social · 01/10/2025

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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 26/08/2025

🌅📙 64.3 #NostalgicDeprivation in Europe 🇪🇺 These authors (🧵⬇️) look at impact of #NostalgicDeprivation on support for #PopulistParties across both Eastern and Western Europe 🌍 linking populist attitudes and voting. 🔗 buff.ly/HuJNAqL

ow.ly

Nostalgic deprivation and populism: Evidence from 19 European countries

JEREMY FERWERDA, JUSTIN GEST, TYLER RENY

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Tyler T Reny @tylerreny.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

My coauthor on this project, Marcel, has a much more comprehensive thread on our new paper if you want to read through!

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Marcel Roman @mfroman.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

🚨NEW PAPER 🚨 Are police more right-wing and biased against marginalized groups than the general public? If so, why? My new article in @pnas.org w/ @tylerreny.bsky.social, Newman, and Sears provides some answers. 🧵1/n

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Tyler T Reny @tylerreny.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

pnas.org

Late adolescents entering college intending a career as police officers hold more right-leaning views than their peers | PNAS

One longstanding explanation for bias and excessive force in policing is selection—the assertion that those who select to work in law enforcement a...

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M. Nolan Gray 🥑 @mnolangray.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

The impossible has become possible: we've passed a clean CEQA infill exemption. This is probably the most important thing California has done on housing in the present YIMBY moment.

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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 22/06/2025

illegal war started by a man constitutionally ineligible to be president

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Benjamin McKean @blmckean.bsky.social · 16/06/2025

i'm not at all qualified to evaluate this study but i am absolutely going to share it with my students, scared straight style

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Tyler T Reny @tylerreny.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

Excited and honored to be chosen for an emerging scholar award from @apsa.bsky.social Elections, Public Opinion, and Voting Behavior (EPOVB) section this year!

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Stan Oklobdzija @stano.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

If you haven't gotten around to it, please call your state Senator today and urge them to vote yes on SB 79. This could be transformative for California if it passes and should've been passed back in 2018 when it was first brought up. Don't let the segregationists keep you poor any longer.

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Alexander Kustov @akoustov.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

I see a lot of confusion about what it means for Republicans to "own" immigration. Does this mean increasing immigration salience helps Rs on average? Yes. But does that mean anything Rs do on immigration is popular? Absolutely not. Folks should remember: issue ownership can be lost.

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Kelsey Atherton @atherton.bsky.social · 09/04/2025

every day I wake up and check the news and am madder about the Trump administration than I have ever been and then I have to meet the obligations of my daily life and them the next morning I wake up and check the news and am madder about the Trump administration than I have ever been and then I have

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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

@tylerreny.bsky.social & B. Newman find “Floyd protests swiftly decreased favorability toward police and increased perceived anti-Black discrimination among low-prejudice & politically liberal Americans” but barely among “high-prejudice & politically conservative…” www.benjnewman.com/uploads/1/2/...

Title: The Opinion-Mobilizing Effect of Social Protest against Police Violence: Evidence from the 2020 George Floyd Protests

Published online by Cambridge University Press: 08 June 2021

By TYLER T. RENY and
BENJAMIN J. NEWMAN

Abstract

Does social protest following the police killing of unarmed Black civilians have a widespread “opinion-mobilizing” effect against the police? Or, does the racialized nature of these events polarize mass opinion based on standing racial and political orientations? To answer these questions, we use a large dataset comprised of weekly cross sections of the American public and employ a regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) approach leveraging the random timing of the police killing of George Floyd and ensuing nationwide protests. We find that the Floyd protests swiftly decreased favorability toward the police and increased perceived anti-Black discrimination among low-prejudice and politically liberal Americans. However, attitudes among high-prejudice and politically conservative Americans either remained unchanged or evinced only small and ephemeral shifts. Our evidence suggests that the Floyd protests served to further racialize and politicize attitudes within the domain of race and law enforcement in the U.S.

FIGURE 1. George Floyd Media Coverage, Social Media Posts, and Search Behavior. Shows trend lines in Newspaper mentions, Twitter mentions and Google Trends that spike around George Floyd protests and decline after about June 1

FIGURE 3. Coefficient and Predicted Value Plots for Prejudice and Partisanship

In Figure 3, we plot both the coefficient and 95% confidence intervals for indicators
of prejudice (rows 1 and 2) and partisanship (row 3),
which allows us to assess both whether attitudes are
becoming more racialized and partisan as well as esti-
mate whether this polarization in attitudes is driven by
movement solely among those lower in prejudice
(or strong Democrats), those higher in prejudice
(or strong Republicans), or both. We use two indicators
of prejudice included in the NS survey: (1) a Black–
White favorability differential, which subtracts Black
from white favorability Likert scales, and (2) the
“generations” item from the well-known racial resent-
ment scale. For partisanship, we use the standard
seven-point scale ranging from strong Democrat to
strong Republican. See Appendix A for more informa-
tion on these items.
Beginning with the coefficient plots in column A, we
find strong evidence of increased racialization and par-
tisan polarization of attitudes. Pretreatment waves indi-
cate that these attitudes were already polarized by racial
and partisan orientations, though in all cases the coeffi-
cients significantly increase following the eruption of the
Floyd protests.
In column B, we plot the probability of reporting a
“very unfavorable” view of the police as a function of
respondents’ prejudice and partisanship; these figures reveal that almost all of the movement in attitudes is
among those lower in prejudice and among strong
Democrats. These analyses suggest that the Floyd pro-
tests facilitated attitude change primarily among those
who were already sympathetic to the BLM movement
and failed to exert a meaningful effect on attitudes
among those higher in prejudice and political conserva-
tives.

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Mark Cuban @mcuban.bsky.social · 22/03/2025

From 2010 to 2016 (latest data I have ), NIH research contributed to EVERY drug approved by the FDA

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Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 22/03/2025

To give a sense of how much money this is: according to CBO in 2023, non-defense discretionary spending was $917B. So the cost of running the entire federal govt, aside from SocSec, Medicare, Medicaid & defense was $917B. And in six weeks DOGE lit $500B on fire.

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Jacqueline Sweet @jsweetli.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

NEW: Bari Weiss’s University of Austin, touted as a haven for free academic inquiry, has a dozen scholars and officials with ties to Hungary’s speech-suppressing regime. www.thenation.com/article/soci...

thenation.com

How a Free-Speech University Sidles Up to Orbán’s Strongman Rule

Bari Weiss's University of Austin, touted as a haven for free academic inquiry, has a dozen scholars and officials with ties to Hungary's speech-suppressing regime

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Alex Garlick @garlicksauce.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

I guess I'm an unwitting member of the "abundance agenda" coalition, and tying Trump's tariffs to the unpopularity of housing costs/inflation could really make hay for these arguments in the near future. (story via GlobeNH: view.email.bostonglobe.com?qs=ec3226b93...)

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Ilya Somin @ilyasomin.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

In addition to other legal flaws, Trump Admin. use of Alien Enemies Act to deport Venezuelans to imprisonment in El Salvador (without any due process whatsoever) violates the Due Process Clause of the 5th Amendment: reason.com/volokh/2025/...

reason.com

How Trump's Alien Enemies Act Deportations Violate the Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment

Most public debate over the Trump Administration's efforts to use the Alien Enemies Act as a tool for deportation have focused on whether

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Sam Connell @samuelconnell.3i.social · 19/03/2025

This breaks my heart. My salary at St. Jude was paid through our comprehensive cancer center grant. My wife's oncologist is at a comprehensive cancer center. Millions of children and adults with cancer get treatment in these 57 centers around the country. These are essential locations for research.🧪

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Bill Kristol @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social · 16/03/2025

Germany did destroy itself almost a century ago. It wasn’t because it took in too many migrants. It was because it fell for arguments uncomfortably close to Vance’s.

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

Stop pretending that the authoritarian repression is BECAUSE of the problems in {higher education, the media, the law, government, immigration policy, etc.}. This is what authoritarians do. If they didn't focus on these justifications, they'd come up with other ones.

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Ezra Levin ❌👑 @ezralevin.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

NEWS: After an emergency meeting of Indivisible groups across the country, Indivisible is officially calling on Senate Minority Leader Schumer to step down from his leadership position. indivisible.org/statements/i...

indivisible.org

Indivisible Calls on Schumer to Step Aside

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Rogue Citizen One @roguecitizenone.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

Chuck Schumer has a book tour starting this week. It would be a damn shame if people showed up to let him know how they feel about his capitulation on the short-term spending bill passed by the Senate Friday afternoon. @schumer.senate.gov

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Rob Davis @robwdavis.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Great job alert: ProPublica is hiring a computational journalist, "someone who will use technology and data to identify and unlock stories that would otherwise be out of reach." Salary: $120K-$140K Remote: ✅ Come join us!

boards.greenhouse.io

Computational Journalist

New York, New York, United States

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

As another Trump-induced market crisis unfolds from tariffs, it's time we ask "What's the Matter with Billionaires?" I've run the numbers. Billionaires do better under Dems. So why do billionaires keep supporting GOP policies against their economic interests? See my latest piece on why. (TLDR 🧵⬇️)

open.substack.com

What's the Matter with Billionaires?

How America's wealthiest sabotage their own prosperity (and ours) to avoid paying taxes

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JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

What an odd fucking framing for a bipartisan majority gently explaining an extremely uncontroversial element of Constitutional procedure to a delusional lunatic who hates the country he's in charge of

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Alt18F @alt18f.bsky.social · 01/03/2025

18F was doing exactly the type of work that DOGE claims to want – yet we were eliminated shortly after midnight. Read our letter to the American people: 18f.org

18f.org

We're not done yet | 18F

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GOLIKEHELLMACHINE @golikehellmachine.com · 28/02/2025

it's still just striking to me that we're five weeks into this, and neither trump nor musk are offering up any treats, to anyone. everything is bad news. everything makes life harder. the only thing they're offering is a tax cut for *extremely* wealthy people, at the expense of *everyone* else.

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Patton Oswalt @pattonoswalt.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

This scrum of pot-bellied, sunken-chested betas trying to bully an all-black clad badass Eastern European wasteland survivor while dressed like Men’s Wearhouse mannequins is peak cinema.

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