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Drew Stommes

@drewstommes.bsky.social
1.4K followers 1.2K following 145 posts

Quantitative social scientist.

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Reposted by Drew Stommes
Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
A favorite painting—a Monet—spotted at the Yale Art Gallery during my day trip to New Haven/Yale today.
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
A favorite painting—a Monet—spotted at the Yale Art Gallery during my day trip to New Haven/Yale today.
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Reposted by Drew Stommes
Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Excited to share that I’m starting a new role as a Senior Data Analyst at SmarterDx, a company that builds clinical AI to help hospitals translate care into payment. I’m looking forward to contributing to research there, including the design and analysis of randomized experiments.
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Grateful to everyone who offered advice and guidance during my transition from academia. I especially appreciate those who took the time to connect and share their perspectives. Looking forward to staying in touch.
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Excited to share that I’m starting a new role as a Senior Data Analyst at SmarterDx, a company that builds clinical AI to help hospitals translate care into payment. I’m looking forward to contributing to research there, including the design and analysis of randomized experiments.
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
After years in academia, I’m exploring data science and research roles in industry. I'm a quant. social scientist (PhD Yale ’24, NYU) focused on causal inference, experiments, and large-scale data. Feel free to get in touch or share; all leads appreciated. dwstommes@gmail.com
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Mashail Malik @mamalik.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
New paper in @ajpseditor.bsky.social. Is descriptive representation good for substantive representation? Why do voters stay loyal to corrupt and poorly governing ethnic parties? I argue that we ought to focus less on patronage and more on dignity concerns. Defiant pride can come at a price. 1/🧵
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
In Defense of the Pre-Test: Valid Inference when Testing Violations of Parallel Trends for Difference-in-Differences (new working paper from Mikhaeil and Harshaw) arxiv.org/pdf/2510.26470
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
In Defense of the Pre-Test: Valid Inference when Testing Violations of Parallel Trends for Difference-in-Differences (new working paper from Mikhaeil and Harshaw) arxiv.org/pdf/2510.26470
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Francesc Amat @cescamat.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
📢 📢 Call for Papers IV Yale–UB Historical Political Economy Workshop Organized by @Didacqueralt.bsky.social & @Cescamat.bsky.social 🎤 Keynote: Lisa Blaydes (Stanford) 📍 University of Barcelona 🗓 June 29–30, 2026 Submit your papers by Jan 21, 2026: shorturl.at/oZTNy #pleaseRT
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Reporting the treated group mean along with DID estimates of the ATT cyrussamii.com?p=4151
cyrussamii.com
Reporting the treated group mean along with DID estimates of the ATT – Cyrus Samii
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Cool new working paper worth checking out: "Cross-Validated Causal Inference: a Modern Method to Combine Experimental and Observational Data" arxiv.org/pdf/2511.00727
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Cool new working paper worth checking out: "Cross-Validated Causal Inference: a Modern Method to Combine Experimental and Observational Data" arxiv.org/pdf/2511.00727
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Rithika Kumar @rithikakumar.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Wrote a short article for @voxdev.bsky.social using results from my primary data collection. This article is based on a forthcoming @thejop.bsky.social piece where I argue that male migration is an under-examined pathway for female political engagement. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Left Behind or Left Ahead? Implications of Male Migration on Female Political Engagement
How does the temporary absence of men from the household due to migration affect female political engagement? While studies on gender and politics have establis
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
This is an excellent review article discussing open questions/challenges in causality and causal inference. arxiv.org/pdf/2508.17099
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
This is an excellent review article discussing open questions/challenges in causality and causal inference. arxiv.org/pdf/2508.17099
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Alex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Congrats to @daniel-a-n-goldstein.com and @drewstommes.bsky.social for showing how an information treatment that US wars are fought predominantly by the poor increases preferences for recruiting from the rich. No effect on tax policy tho! here again we see fx on "target attitudes" not "nontarget"
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
I have a new paper with Daniel Goldstein evaluating whether and how citizens want to address the differential burdens of public goods provision, focusing on the physical costs of US military conflict disproportionately borne by less affluent Americans.
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Joshua Tucker @jatucker.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
1/ 🚨 What if intro political science textbooks were better and cheaper? We built one: ✅ $1/chapter ✅ Modular & flexible ✅ Written by top scholars ✅ Full (free!) instructor resources 🌐 www.politicsexperiment.com Help us spread the word! @rudalev.bsky.social & I are the editors!
politicsexperiment.com
Home Page - A Political Science Experiment
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
“Modi Wants More Indians to Speak Hindi. Some States Are Shouting ‘No.’” “States worry that the imposition of Hindi, the main language of northern India, would wipe out their cultural heritage.” www.nytimes.com/2025/07/13/w...
nytimes.com
Modi Wants More Indians to Speak Hindi. Some States Are Shouting ‘No.’
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Really wonderful to see this. My USIP-Minerva Dissertation Fellowship was absolutely critical for helping me push my doctoral dissertation across the finish line.
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Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
I spoke with @dkthomp.bsky.social about scientific consensus on the potential harms of #socialmedia and why it's really, really hard to figure out the consensus about polarized topics based on how they are discussed on social media You can listen here: www.theringer.com/podcasts/pla...
theringer.com
What Experts Really Think About Smartphones and Mental Health - The Ringer
I’m very concerned about the relationship between smartphone use and America’s mental health crisis. But many researchers don’t see things my way. They insist that there is little to...
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Michael Albertus @mikealbertus.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
Excited to have a new paper forthcoming @cpsjournal.bsky.social – Indigenous Community Recognition and Identity: Evidence from Peru. A first individual-level analysis of a key, widespread public policy, based on years of mapping, data & conversation with colleagues papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
“[Yunus’s] aides say he feels thwarted by an emerging alliance between the country’s largest remaining political party and the army, which have criticized his policies and say he is being too slow to plan elections.”
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
Bangladesh’s Leader Threatens to Resign Over Election Pressure www.nytimes.com/2025/05/23/w...
nytimes.com
Bangladesh’s Leader Threatens to Resign Over Election Pressure
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
I’m very much looking forward to this soon-to-be-released South Asian history book—titled Apostles of Development: Six Economists and the World They Made—by Prof. David Engerman at Yale. global.oup.com/academic/pro...
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
I’m very much looking forward to this soon-to-be-released South Asian history book—titled Apostles of Development: Six Economists and the World They Made—by Prof. David Engerman at Yale. global.oup.com/academic/pro...
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Laia Balcells @laiabalcells.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
So excited to see this out. Stathis and I presented a first version of this paper at APSA in 2010.
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Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
I am hiring a new Lab Manager to help run the NYU Center for Conflict & Cooperation. We start reviewing apps on MAY 1st and it pays over $58,000. Please share with anyone who might be interested! Please apply here: apply.interfolio.com/166620 See more details below:
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Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
New paper alert (hey, I can't doom scroll all the time): This one's on doing causal inference with "microlevel data" where we suspect that the treatment has spatial spillover & temporal carryover effects. We illustrate our new approach + package w/ application to US counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq
arxiv.org
Spatiotemporal causal inference with arbitrary spillover and carryover effects
Micro-level data with granular spatial and temporal information are becoming increasingly available to social scientists. Most researchers aggregate such data into a convenient panel data format and a...
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
If your research involves RD designs, check out this important new working paper from Ghosh, Imbens, and Wager: "PLRD: Partially Linear Regression Discontinuity Inference" arxiv.org/pdf/2503.09907
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
If your research involves RD designs, check out this important new working paper from Ghosh, Imbens, and Wager: "PLRD: Partially Linear Regression Discontinuity Inference" arxiv.org/pdf/2503.09907
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
Piet Mondrian’s Broadway Boogie-Woogie (one of my favorites)
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Didac Queralt @didacqueralt.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
🚨New pre-print! It builds on the State Formation seminar that I teach at Yale, benefiting from rich conversations with brilliant students. The piece tackles state formation, state building, and outlines 3 paths of future research: civil wars, international constraints, and bureaucratic capacity.
annualreviews.org
From Territorial Consolidation to Bureaucratic Dominance: The Long Arc of State Development | Annual Reviews
Our understanding of state development—a term that encompasses both state formation and state building—has grown significantly in the last two decades. In this review, I outline the foundations of the...
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Dr. Alexandra “Ali” Cirone @alicirone.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
New Broadstreet post up! Highlighting some great work rethinking common assumptions about African borders! @ricarthuguet.bsky.social @jackpaine.bsky.social and Christy Qiu www.broadstreet.blog/p/african-bo...
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
#3 Stommes et al (2023) show that RDDs in political science, many of which are close election RDDs, are "underpowered to detect all but large effects." As with all low power tests, we should be wary not only about large standard errors, but also type M/S errors! journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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Kasia Nalewajko @knalewajko.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Very happy that my paper has just been published at @apsrjournal.bsky.social! Do insurgents help or hurt genocide targets? Contrary to common belief, I find that insurgent presence reduced Jewish victimisation during the Holocaust in France. Here's what I discovered 👇 1/6
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
I have a new working paper with @aidanmilliff.com and Varun KR which is now available on SocArXiv: osf.io/preprints/so...
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
I have a new working paper with @aidanmilliff.com and Varun KR which is now available on SocArXiv: osf.io/preprints/so...
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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
🚨🚨🚨🚨 New WP (with @benckrick.bsky.social @austinlw.bsky.social) available at the ESOC working paper series: esoc.princeton.edu/wp39
Title: Refugee Repatriation and Conflict: Evidence from the Maximum Pressure Sanctions

Abstract: How does refugee return shape conflict in migrants’ destination communities? We argue that conditions inducing repatriation bear critically on the consequences of return. When refugees return because of worsening conditions in host countries, they are often marginalized and destitute. In this setting, mass return risks amplifying conflict in returnee-receiving communities. We test this theory leveraging the Trump administration’s sudden re-imposition of sanctions on Iran in 2018. These “Maximum Pressure” sanctions decimated the Iranian economy and spurred mass return of Afghan refugees from Iran. Exploiting historical returnee settlement patterns and the plausibly exogenous timing of the sanctions, we estimate the causal effect of large-scale refugee repatriation on violence. We find that the returnee influx increased insurgent violence in returnees’ destination communities. We find suggestive evidence for an opportunity cost mechanism. Sanctions-induced currency depreciation reduced household incomes in returnee-receiving areas, lowering reservation wages and driving up insurgent recruitment. We also find evidence that Iran retaliated against the sanctions by escalating support for Afghan insurgent factions. While insurgent violence increased in repatriation communities, there was no effect on communal conflict.
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
Some paintings that caught my eye today at the Met.
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Drew Stommes @drewstommes.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
Some paintings that caught my eye today at the Met.
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Daniel Tavana @danieltavana.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Excited to share my new article in the American Journal of Political Science (@ajpseditor.bsky.social)! "Endogenous Opposition: Identity and Ideology in Kuwaiti Electoral Politics" explores how authoritarian elections generate opposition to incumbent autocrats. Link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ukrer...
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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
How do you know when a mechanism is externally valid? In“ Sign-Congruence, External Validity, and Replication,” @tara-slough.bsky.social and @scottatyson.bsky.social develop a framework for accumulating evidence across multiple studies and develop theoretical foundations for replication.
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