Reposted by Ari 🚋
I frequently see "AI" boosters implying that LLMs are simply an innate and superior part of coding now, inescapable, and that literally all programmers agree with them.
And, well. That, too, is a form of propaganda
Ari 🚋
@transitenjoyer.bsky.social
536 followers 261 following 195 posts
Guy who is normal about trains. Computer scientist, member of @bettertransportqueensland.org All posts, reposts, etc are made in a purely personal capacity he/him
![A quote from the Courier Mail, which reads:
Mr Newton is now facing cross examination.
He has been asked to explain how the CRR project costs blew out from $5.4bn to its current $19bn price tag.
Here is the entire explanation:
“The $5.4 billion number back in 2017-18, when that budget was announced, the accounting standards didn’t require a declaration of the private financing component,” Mr Newton said.
“In the subsequent year, in 2019-20, that private financing of roughly one $1.5bn or one $1.499bn was incorporated, so hence the budget was, then, I suppose, recorded as being $6.88bn.”
“In the 2023-24 budget, it was adjusted to that same number, the comparative number $6.88bn was adjusted to $7.85bn and in that window was a range of things, stuff that’s been talked about here, but also Covid.
“Then the most recent adjustment is in the current budget, which is in the 2025-26 budget, which is $9.83bn OK, so that if you were to do an apples with apples comparison, the $6.88bn has been adjusted to $9.83bn.
“So then going to the question around the $19bn… it’s more than just that core scope of Cross River Rail.
“If you add $2.6bn – which is the service payments, which is the 25 year concession period where the state pays back that, that creates a number of $12.4bn.
“And there’s a further $6.6bn of other work that we’re delivering … there’s complimentary work, so stabling yards, station upgrades, bridges and some conventional signaling in the rail corridor. And on top of that is the ETCS signaling and also upgrades to the new generation rolling stock fleet, so that is ETCS capable.
“And then there’s some integration funding… then there’s other costs, such as alternative transport… and also some additional costs for Queensland Rail for their operation once that goes in.”
Keeping up?
CRR build cost = $12.43bn ($9.83bn for project + $2.6bn for service payments)
Other related works = $6.6bn
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![A post made by me on the BTQ forum in Dec 2025, which reads as follows
A ministerial statement from Dec 2024 breaks it down into:
$10.5B for construction + 25 years of maintenance
$5B for trains (QTMP?), stabling, signalling, rail replacements during construction, maintenance facilities, and “integration works” (presumably other projects)
$1.5B for “late running and contractor claims”
Last cost estimate from the red team before departure was $6.3B spend, and that’s for construction only.
The link Metro posted above (probably the most reliable of the bunch) isn’t entirely clear, but does include this chart
[A detailed chart showing the funding of Cross River Rail over various financial years]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2orb5ax3lflfkrvcsvo5miww/bafkreihhd2f6je6u5qik3e24lyx4cppt6jehegghnlw42vliqe2qzlyjpy)
![A continuation of the previous post by myself, which reads as follows:
Looking further at pages 25 & 26, as far as I can tell
$8.3B + $1.5B private funding for ‘core project’ (which, assuming everything grew in cost evenly from 2019 roughly breaks down into:)
$6B for tunnels, stations, and development
$1B for rail, integration, and systems
$2.8B for land acquisition, contingencies, and other project costs
$3.6B for associated project costs, seemingly all funded by QR & TMR (again, assuming even cost growth breaks into:)
$1.8B for ETCS
$1.8B for rail, integration, and systems
$2.6B for 25 years of operations and maintenance
$3B for ‘associated project costs’, which include “tunnel integration with the existing rail network, train stabling facilities, signalling systems, temporary bus services during construction, and maintenance equipment”. We also know from the media release above that this includes the new QTMP trains
Some personal thoughts:
Red team estimate of $6.3B from 2023 lines up perfectly with the state contribution to the CRR project at that time. I think if we want to do any meaningful comparison our cost for CRR is now $8.3B
Blue team is counting the cost of the whole project including private funding and separate ETCS/RIS that QR is paying for, so that’s already a ‘blowout’ up to $13.4B without an additional cent being spent. I don’t think this is unreasonable per se (certainly the QR portion is also a state cost), but it’s odd to change costing half way through
Blue team has additionally added 25 years of maintenance and ops to the cost (which we already knew about), as well as factored into what seems to be the entirety of the QTMP project, rail replacement buses, stabling, and god knows what else. I don’t really have any way to describe this other than dodgy to the point of lying to the public. Really disappointing
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