iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 29/05/2025

Pacing #ManitobaMarathon this year with the 3:50 crew! 1,250 full marathon racers registered this year up 20% from last year's sell out! Amazing! Who's joining me?

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

I have mixed feelings whether the CPC should replace Poilievre. I think they have better leadership candidates to choose from, but they won't choose them, and they risk choosing someone far worse. CPC should win the next election (LPC 5th term?). I don't know if I'd want to roll the dice on this.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

Final Update: 2025 Federal Election Seat Projection. What do you think will happen tonight?

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Kevin Milligan @kevinmilligan.bsky.social · 19/04/2025

A few comments on the @mark-carney.bsky.social platform released today. You can find it here: liberal.ca/cstrong/. I provided some 'sounding board' advice here and there to those working on the platform. As always: I disclose, but you can decide what weight to put on that. Thread below...

liberal.ca

Canada Strong | Liberal Party of Canada

Download our plan

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

New Canada seat projection model. 200 simulations, LPC majority in all of these (188-215).

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

Blue Jackets need a regulation win tonight to stay in the playoff hunt. Could we see a goalie pull in a tie game late in the 3rd? Canadiens on verge of clinching if Jackets don't win in regulation.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

I've seen plenty of these mailers in the past, but this one steps up the level of egregiousness! How many false dichotomies and other logical fallacies can you spot?

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

I'm curious for anyone in Elmwood-Transcona, which election signs you've seen the most of (NDP/LPC/CPC)? It's probably one of the harder to predict ridings in Canada right now. 2024 By-election saw very small LPC vote share, but it was much closer when Trudeau won a majority.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

2025 Canada Election projection. Two day update (last posted on Threads) sees LPC down 2 seats (MB/BC), NDP up 1 (MB) and CPC up 1 (BC). No clear trend in polling over the last week.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

So, assuming these tariffs significantly reduce global trade with US, and manufacturing capacity doesn't go anywhere, would Canadian import prices come significantly down (excluding US)? Then again, maybe US demand is inelastic, they can't produce things more cheaply, and will pay the tariffs.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

I'm skeptical the federal debates will bring much opportunity to shift sentiment. 5 leaders is too many, and one of them is polling at 2%, and two others under 10%. 5 leaders = 20 (5x4) possible 1v1 confrontations. Far too little time, and any jabs will feel scripted.

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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 04/04/2025

NEW 🧵 A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far: 1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively. These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

Both @kevinmilligan.bsky.social and @trevortombe.bsky.social are worth a read regarding US tariffs. They strongly disagree on the surface, but largely share the same set of economic principles and theory.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

Not a bad day's work for Josh, bringing home the high school championship 🏆 and team banner in chess!

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

I haven't found a Paul Chiang take that explains his thought process. Maybe it was a joke in bad taste? But frankly, I haven't seen this explained in any detail. Many are assuming it isn't a joke. There doesn't seem to be basis to debate the severity. Perhaps benefit of the doubt is not warranted.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

I have been doing a lot of processing on federal election polling. It's hard to come to a full understanding of how the numbers have shifted so dynamically in a short period of time. A few thoughts: 🧵

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

Proud Dad moment. My kid got top math contest score in MB on Grade 11 Fermat. Honestly, he's miles ahead of me w.r.t. mathematical puzzles and I do math modeling as a living.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

With NDP/BQ down in the polls, a majority government looks increasingly likely. Just a 3% window for a minority government. LPC needs about 37-38% for a majority, and can win a majority while losing the popular vote by a significant margin.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

I think QC is perhaps an underrated variable in the Canadian election. I think Carney has potentially a lot to gain in QC. With the right voice, a mainstream party can win over BQ votes. NDP has done it with the orange wave. LPC could do it too.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

#CanadaElection simulations based on 338. LPC needs ~37% for a majority. They get more seat efficiency if BQ slides. CPC needs ~43% for majority. The difference between a majority and a tie is if 2% of voters switch from LPC to CPC. CPC majority if 4% of voters of LPC switch to LPC.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 23/03/2025

I am not tired of Canada winning over the USA. Jonathan David puts Canada up 2-1 in Nation's League 3rd place match (60 minutes). This after USA losing to Panama in the semi-final, also subject to annexation threats.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

Given current polling and a 3.3% shift from LPC to CPC, still an LPC majority even if CPC is up 2.7% in popular vote. (Note my model methodology uses a ratio method for each riding from 2021 results. It's a pretty basic model, but I think the methodology is pretty sound).

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

I'll make an outlier prediction for the federal election. LPC majority while losing the popular vote to the CPC. Based on my modeling, LPC electoral efficiency is soaring while NDP support plummets and can win a majority losing by 2%. Can you imagine how many heads will explode in this scenario?

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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

A quick plot of Canadian border crossing data. The daily data are noisy so this is a "LOESS" smooth run through the daily data. Can really see the, ahem, trend in year-on-year data.

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Paul Nuki @paulnuki.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

How risks multiply, how they relate and how they apply to you personally are all important. We once built a tool for the NHS that allowed this. This screenshot is all i can find of it now but even high level results like this are informative, i think

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

I'm very happy with BlueSky thus far. Need to do some work on more custom feeds/lists, but that will come. For me, I appreciate a respectful environment, but not via echo chambers. I'll express opinions. I do appreciate respectful disagreement. My ideas aren't all correct, and I'm here to learn.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

The advancement of renewable energy has been a bright spot for progress on climate change. @katharinehayhoe.com gives us a few positive messages while not ignoring the elephant in the room. Worth a listen.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

Curious if there are any/many on the political right buying Teslas as a virtue signal.

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Leyla Asadi, MD PhD @leylaaa.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

Childhood vaccines are humanity’s greatest achievement. Not electric cars. Not satellite internet reaching the world. Not even rockets to Mars. Undermining public trust in these vaccines is unconscionable.

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Deepta Bhattacharya @deeptabhattacha.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

With full acknowledgment that this may fizzle out w/o onward transmission, I hope even the slightest possibility emphasizes how important it is to have someone who believes in vaccines as head of HHS.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

Got a flu/covid shot this morning. No fever / chills today. Elevated heart rate so seems like immune response is working, but usually I get fever symptoms.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 16/11/2024

Enjoying a Steve Bell concert with Mike Janzen. Nice mix of gospel and jazz. Steve is such an outstanding narrator and supporter of marginalized people groups. I can't stomach the alignment of Christian artists and the political far right. Bell and Janzen are very authentic and speak to my soul.

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Jason Kindrachuk @kindrachukjason.bsky.social · 05/11/2023

In the history of the dumbfounding things uttered from RFK Jr’s mouth hole, this takes the cake: “I’m gonna say to NIH scientists, God bless you all,” Kennedy said. “Thank you for public service. We’re going to give infectious disease a break for about eight years.” www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...

nbcnews.com

RFK Jr. comes ‘home’ to his anti-vaccine group, commits to ‘a break’ for U.S. infectious dis...

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Edward Nirenberg @enirenberg.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

I think of all the picks we have seen so far, this one embodies kakistocracy the most. Appointing the world's leading source of vaccine disinformation to head HHS in the wake of the worst pandemic in a century which fueled his ascension into the mainstream is astonishing. Yet somehow not surprising.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

The deterioration of young adult mortality in Canada / US is real (pink line 2010-2019) and likely largely due to opioids. What surprises me is that this doesn't seem to be replicated elsewhere in the world.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

Exactly. The quickest way to drop life expectancy is to remove childhood vaccines. But we have had them for so long we just don't remember.

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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 13/11/2024

A tale of two platforms: BlueSky user numbers have hit a new record high in recent days, while the number of people deleting their accounts on X/Twitter has rocketed 🚀

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Blue skies Smiling at me Nothing but blue skies Do I see Blue birds Singing a song Nothing but blue birds All day long Blue days All of them gone Nothing but blue skies From now on

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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 13/11/2024

Haven't seen a goal this filthy in a long time. Gabe Vilardi receives a mid-air pass on his backhand, taps it down & through a defender's legs, fakes left, dishes right, receives a return pass through the crease and taps it past Igor Shesterkin. Winnipeg Jets go on to defeat the NY Rangers 6-3.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 12/11/2024

New intro. I am Todd from Winnipeg. These days I am most obsessed with distance running. Recent 1st time Boston Marathon Qualifier (2026). I am a disability actuary by trade, and a strong interest in mathematical modeling, climate and health sciences. NHL Jets and Bayern Munich devotee.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 09/11/2024

Wife says I needed to move the treadmill out of the living room. Basement ceiling not tall enough so we compromised by sawing a hole in the ceiling! On a short hiatus to heal a minor toe injury but getting close to 3000km this year. Need to get ready for Chicago 2025 and Boston 2026 marathons!

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 08/11/2024

Still the most important driver in recent elections.

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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 18/10/2024

The recent political polarisation of Silicon Valley is really striking. 25 years ago most big tech and VC execs were moderates. Then the whole sector shifted gradually leftwards up until 2020, and now suddenly we have a sharp divide into Democrat-backers and Trump backers.

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 03/01/2024

Love this new presentation of mortality data from a recent blog by @scientificdiscovery.dev. It shows mortality rates experienced by successive cohorts (people born in 1910s, 1920s, etc) and how these have fallen over time across the whole lifespan. www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/19-seven-t...

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 31/12/2023

Added 4 new half/full marathon medals in 2023 (left side). All PB's! WPS: 1:43:03 Rotary: 1:37:39 WFPS: 1:33:26 Twin Cities (virtual due to live event heat cancelation): 3:46:04 Previous bests: Full: 4:01:31 2019 MB Marathon Half: 1:44:45 2022 WFPS

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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 31/12/2023

The whole history of federal debt in Canada and the U.S. Quite the divergence in recent decades. Canada has some important financial challenges ahead, but nothing like the U.S. #cdnecon #cdnpoli

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