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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 29/05/2025

Pacing #ManitobaMarathon this year with the 3:50 crew! 1,250 full marathon racers registered this year up 20% from last year's sell out! Amazing! Who's joining me?

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

NDP has no leader, no money, no leverage and thus no coalition offer is pending.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

To think back when Scheer (as incompetent as he is) narrowly won against Bernier and O'Leary (vastly more incompetent)? They had a competent, Michael Chong, on the ballot but only drew marginal support. As much as I disagree with Poilievre, he is better than anyone the CPC would consider.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

I have mixed feelings whether the CPC should replace Poilievre. I think they have better leadership candidates to choose from, but they won't choose them, and they risk choosing someone far worse. CPC should win the next election (LPC 5th term?). I don't know if I'd want to roll the dice on this.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

Final Update: 2025 Federal Election Seat Projection. What do you think will happen tonight?

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Reposted by Todd Friesen

Kevin Milligan @kevinmilligan.bsky.social · 19/04/2025

A few comments on the @mark-carney.bsky.social platform released today. You can find it here: liberal.ca/cstrong/. I provided some 'sounding board' advice here and there to those working on the platform. As always: I disclose, but you can decide what weight to put on that. Thread below...

liberal.ca

Canada Strong | Liberal Party of Canada

Download our plan

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

I would say that the NDP are really only truly favoured to win 1 riding (Edmonton-Strathcona), but they are close enough in several that they are expected to win 3 or 4, I just don't know for sure which ones.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

The new model is less blind to NDP-LPC swing votes, and between CPC-PPC. Generally, lost PPC votes are assumed to move to CPC, NDP to LPC. There is a lesser degree of LPC->CPC and CPC->LPC, as this bridge is often tougher to cross.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

I took a deeper dive into AB which has the largest swing of votes in the country (generally from NDP->LPC). But, this created some anomalies, and decent models can vary in projections from 3 LPC seats to 10. The truth might be in the middle. There appears to be a lot of close ridings in Edm/Cgy.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

My prior model was more simplistic using proportionality between 2021 results and regional polling splits from the prior week. (I would also normalize the results such that each riding's vote distribution adds up to 100%, and each party's vote % reconciles with the polling averages).

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

New Canada seat projection model. 200 simulations, LPC majority in all of these (188-215).

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

LPC: 198 CPC: 121 BQ: 19 NDP: 3 GRN: 1 IND: 1

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

Lib 206 Con: 119 BQ: 14 NDP: 3 Green: 1

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

Blue Jackets need a regulation win tonight to stay in the playoff hunt. Could we see a goalie pull in a tie game late in the 3rd? Canadiens on verge of clinching if Jackets don't win in regulation.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

I wonder that too, though our trade relationship with China is a bit strained with Chinese EV's and Canadian canola strapped with high tariffs. Carney is also indicating he is looking outside of China for trade partners. Can China withstand an international boycott?

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

I've seen plenty of these mailers in the past, but this one steps up the level of egregiousness! How many false dichotomies and other logical fallacies can you spot?

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

I'm curious for anyone in Elmwood-Transcona, which election signs you've seen the most of (NDP/LPC/CPC)? It's probably one of the harder to predict ridings in Canada right now. 2024 By-election saw very small LPC vote share, but it was much closer when Trudeau won a majority.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

Based on these, LPC majority if they get 38%. CPC majority if LPC drops below 35.5%. At 44%, LPC still in comfortable majority territory.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

2025 Canada Election projection. Two day update (last posted on Threads) sees LPC down 2 seats (MB/BC), NDP up 1 (MB) and CPC up 1 (BC). No clear trend in polling over the last week.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

Only one candidate can be identified as Rhino on the ballot, but they all are.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

They are all (or almost all) Rhino Party. They pick a riding every election, and flood their entire slate of candidates there. It's a nuisance, but won't impact the outcome. None of these candidates get double digit vote counts.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

I haven't seen any economists touch on these questions yet. Usually more focused on how bad tariffs are in general. And I suspect these are difficult questions to answer.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Similar question for exports. With reciprocal tariffs on US goods, does that give Canada an edge on products we compete with the US on exporting? Curious where this will all go.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

So, assuming these tariffs significantly reduce global trade with US, and manufacturing capacity doesn't go anywhere, would Canadian import prices come significantly down (excluding US)? Then again, maybe US demand is inelastic, they can't produce things more cheaply, and will pay the tariffs.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Down 6% today. Curious about where this ranks for 2-day drops.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

IMO, the Green party should not qualify on the basis they have a seat and run a slate of candidates. The other criterion is 4% polling, but you only need to meet 2/3 criteria. The bar needs to be set higher. I wouldn't oppose a 10% threshold. This time it would narrow to 2 candidates.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Maybe Jack Layton was the last successful debater, which helped prompt an orange wave in QC. That was in the context of a 5-person debate, so moments can happen. But, I think Mulroney vs. Turner moments are largely a thing of the past.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

I'm skeptical the federal debates will bring much opportunity to shift sentiment. 5 leaders is too many, and one of them is polling at 2%, and two others under 10%. 5 leaders = 20 (5x4) possible 1v1 confrontations. Far too little time, and any jabs will feel scripted.

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Reposted by Todd Friesen

John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 04/04/2025

NEW 🧵 A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far: 1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively. These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

If US imports less Nike's from Vietnam, would that reduce the price on Nike imports to Canada (at least temporarily, as manufacturing capacity exceeds demand)?

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

Both @kevinmilligan.bsky.social and @trevortombe.bsky.social are worth a read regarding US tariffs. They strongly disagree on the surface, but largely share the same set of economic principles and theory.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

Do you think one explanation is more probable? I'm 46, had shingles in my early 30's (mild case due to quick diagnosis with anti-virals); family history of dementia. I was thinking reactivation is rare(?), and maybe there isn't much to gain. But, it sounds like benefit is still possible?

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

Not a bad day's work for Josh, bringing home the high school championship 🏆 and team banner in chess!

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

I guess he did step down shortly before I posted this. For him, probably better he can do this on his own terms (not sure if this was technically the case) as the eventual outcome couldn't be much else. But rough road ahead with the investigation.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

I haven't found a Paul Chiang take that explains his thought process. Maybe it was a joke in bad taste? But frankly, I haven't seen this explained in any detail. Many are assuming it isn't a joke. There doesn't seem to be basis to debate the severity. Perhaps benefit of the doubt is not warranted.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

No doubt. I feel for myself, I have very high confidence in Carney's understanding of the global economy and with that an ability to discern good and bad policy. He still has to play a pragmatic game of politics, and I sense he is doing pretty well with the cards handed to him.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

7) If the LPC stumbles, then what? The CPC has more upside if LPC lose NDP voters. There are only so many red Tories out there. Look carefully at NDP/BQ trends to see if they pick up from LPC stumbles. I suspect the CPC needs much more than a Chiang scandal to get the level of traction they need. /🧵

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

6) As a statistician, I think stochastically about the future, which is highly uncertain. The CPC might win the election still but the pathway is not straightforward. They need the NDP and BQ to rise. The CPC can only get so high themselves in the polls, and 40% might not be enough.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

5) I think the old school PC camp is much smaller in size. I think Carney is not a bad match for old school PC politics. All BoC governors are fiscal conservatives, and I think Carney is too. But this is not Poilievre's style of conservatism, which is more ideologically driven.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

4) I don't know if enough has been made of QC. The BQ really doesn't benefit from separatism when US annexation threats loom large. Deferring separation to 2026 is not the message the moment calls for. I wouldn't be surprised if the BQ falls further.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

3) Trump is also a unifying force solidifying the importance of Canadian unity. This further weakened the NDP and the BQ. CPC has slid too (partly because they couldn't easily separate from MAGA sympathizers), but the CPC slide isn't as notable as NDP/BQ.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

2) LPC gains are largely from the mass exodus of NDP voters, with smaller gains from CPC and BQ. One main driver is fatigue with Trudeau/Singh. People want a change and Carney comes in as fresh and highly competent face.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

1) LPC needs about 38% for a majority, 36% for a minority and <34% for a CPC majority. Might not be intuitive, but the election outcome is best predicted by LPC %, not winning margin, not CPC %. 40% is clear majority even if they lose popular vote.

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

I have been doing a lot of processing on federal election polling. It's hard to come to a full understanding of how the numbers have shifted so dynamically in a short period of time. A few thoughts: 🧵

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Todd Friesen @toddfriesen.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

Proud Dad moment. My kid got top math contest score in MB on Grade 11 Fermat. Honestly, he's miles ahead of me w.r.t. mathematical puzzles and I do math modeling as a living.

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