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Tim Bale

@timbale.bsky.social
30K followers 1.3K following 6.5K posts

Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London & author of The Conservative Party after Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation (now out in paperback). The bits and pieces I do for websites and newspapers turn up eventually at proftimbale.com

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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 3h
As my dad used to say, "Surprise, surprise!"
theguardian.com
Christian nationalism in Britain driven by people who seldom go to church, says report
Research challenges the notion that the growing visibility of crosses and other symbols reflects a revival of Christianity
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Khashoggi's Ghost @urocklive1.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
IDK about you guys, but I use Wikipedia multiple times a day, every day, and I value them highly. Even if you're tight, it's worth it to give at least the minimum. =================== I support Wikipedia, where information is still human-created, fact-checked, and 100% free. donate.wikimedia.org
donate.wikimedia.org
Make your donation now - Wikimedia Foundation
Donate to the Wikimedia Foundation, the nonprofit that hosts Wikipedia and other crucial free knowledge projects. Each year, the generosity of the 2% of readers who donate allows us to expand the reac...
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Possibly the most sad and pathetic we’ve yet seen him - and that’s saying something. Embarrassing.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
“Well, I never did”, as my dad used to say.
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Jan-Werner Mueller @jwmueller-pu.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
👇
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
A much-needed - and typically brilliant - counter(blast) to the current common wisdom. I've read so much motivated reasoning from Tory-inclined commentators and out-and-out Badenoch fan-boys (and girls) over the last few days that this was a real breath of fresh air.
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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 23h
Nothing is more important than intimidating asylum seekers
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Mincepies @mincepies8888.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
USA Vote: URGENT Registration ends: TODAY - OK 13th - DC, MD, NJ, OR, WV 14th - WI 16th - NE 19th - AL, DE, SD, WY, PA, CA 23rd - ID, UT, VA,TX Help/Info Desk: www.votefromabroad.org Citizens abroad request ballot by e mail. Please copy/paste everywhere to remind other Americans. Vote Vote Vote
votefromabroad.org
Request Absentee Ballots for US Citizens | VoteFromAbroad.org
Helping US Citizens Request Their Absentee Ballot to Vote from Outside the US | VoteFromAbroad.org
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 23h
You've given me an earworm! www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGtt...
youtube.com
Femme Fatale
YouTube video by The Velvet Underground - Topic
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
They are SO good, though - although tbf, we did them as a game of two halves.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
A much-needed - and typically brilliant - counter(blast) to the current common wisdom. I've read so much motivated reasoning from Tory-inclined commentators and out-and-out Badenoch fan-boys (and girls) over the last few days that this was a real breath of fresh air.
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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
The Bjg Time Chatlie account seeking to identify & incite vs RNLI staff as traitors was run by a recruitment consultant in Worcestershire who is a Restore donor & Cromwell Club member. He hss now deactivated the anon troll account after being publicly identifird www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...
theguardian.com
Recruitment boss accused of being behind ‘doxxing’ campaign against RNLI and anti-racism activists
Tom Watson, of Worcester, alleged to be behind Big Time Charlie X account that created so-called Traitorbase
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
“Well, I never did”, as my dad used to say.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Possibly the most sad and pathetic we’ve yet seen him - and that’s saying something. Embarrassing.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
"The UK should have a codified constitution". Discuss.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Yes but if you stop now there's still time to pull them out of the fire.
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Angela 🐱💙 💛🌻 @hollia.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Whilst he'll be having a meltdown about it, she made a joke about him 🤭 bsky.app/profile/wuta...
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Trump: "I was robbed!"
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Anand Menon @anandmenon.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Someone’s hacked Dunt
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Liberal Democrats - you are doing ok. It really isn't very different from the last parliament. Stop using polling numbers as a measure of success in isolation. Maintaining a position when almost all around are doing worse than before is a good thing.
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Paul Evans @pauliewaulie.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Next leader of The Greens? He’s tanned, rested and ready. 👍
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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
The problem for Centre-Right parties *everywhere* is coming to terms with the reality that the period where their baseline vote was Centre-Right + Radical Right (45-50% of the electorate) wasn't the Normal Politics but a specific post-WWII blip.
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K.Flynnx (St.) @kflynny369.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
That explains the moving rock mystery.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
ngl, pathetic I know, but, contrarily, I can derive an absurd amount of pleasure from rolling up at the next red light directly behind the tw*t who's tailgated me for miles before dangerously overtaking and then doing 60 in a 30 zone. (h/t @resolutionfoundation.org's @ruthcurtice.bsky.social)
The author tackles a frustration familiar to every driver: you overtake a slower car and establish a healthy lead, before finding the same car mysteriously behind you at the very next red light. They dub this the  'Voorhees law of traffic' after the Friday the 13th killer, who was truly the tortoise to his fleeing victim's hares. The model itself is pretty simple, with the probability of being caught equal to the red-light share of the cycle minus your time advantage share. On average you escape as much as you get caught, but negativity bias means the successful stalkers are much more memorable than the clean getaways.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Great stuff (of course!) from @psurridge.bsky.social
ukandeu.ac.uk
Chasing Reform voters could backfire for Badenoch - UK in a changing Europe
Paula Surridge argues that the Conservative Party’s attempts to win back former voters who have switched to Reform UK are unlikely to...
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Good question. To quote a queen, though: "I have no desire to make windows into men's souls"!
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Sorry but that's just mad. Don't want to go all biblical on you people but, as the guy who part-inspired your movement once put it, "I say unto you that likewise more joy shall be in Heaven over one sinner that repenteth, than over ninety and nine just persons who need no repentance." (Luke 15:7)
labourlist.org
Labour members willing to accept Green defections, but not Tories or Reform - poll - LabourList
Labour members would welcome high-profile defections from the Greens, but oppose any from the Conservatives or Reform UK, exclusive polling for LabourList reveals.
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GuyD @thenotoriousguy.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Lest we forget - it was a spreadsheet error that consigned us to years of austerity under Cameron/Osbourne
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Must be a nice change.
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Indeed Seoltangi @icareyesido.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Hey Spurs fam we won 😂
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
To quote Liz Truss 'That. Is. A. Disgrace!', especially now that UK/EU relations are back in vogue. Like many others, I want to pay a huge tribute to the Duracell Bunny's Duracell Bunny, @anandmenon.bsky.social - and to all those (far too many to name) who (just about !) managed to keep up with him.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Our first DevolvedElections Westminster projection on recent polling: 🌹 Lab — 301 ➡️ Reform — 121 🌳 Con — 77 🔶 LD — 72 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 SNP — 45 🐉 PC — 8 ☘️ SF — 7 🌱 Green — 4 🔷 UUP — 4 🦁 DUP — 3 ⚫ Ind — 3 🌹 SDLP — 2 ⚪ Speaker — 1 ⬅ Restore — 1 Ⓣ TUV — 1 From devolvedelections.co.uk/westminster/
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
And the main task, given that there wasn't actually as much switching straight to the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall in 2024 as many imagine, is to reactivate/re-energise those 2019 Tories who just stayed home. Guess it all depends on why they did so - fiendishly difficult to research non-voters, though!
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
"I'm not confident the corporation will continue the series. I so hope they do." So say all of us! I'll miss MP but, come on, how costly can the programme be? It's just one minor celebrity, the host, and an expert in a studio for half an hour or so, plus researcher and producer. #PerformativeCuts!
spectator.com
I bid fond farewell to Great Lives
By my bed at home is a little shelf on which I put useful things for the morning. Coins, keys, my smartphone, some eardrops and… I looked at it, and it looked back at me. ‘You won’t be needing me any ...
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Unlikely to help their claim to be able to free up the housing market either, although I have to say that, driving around Canterbury and Margate this weekend, I've never seen so many new housing estates being built!
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Sorry but that's just mad. Don't want to go all biblical on you people but, as the guy who part-inspired your movement once put it, "I say unto you that likewise more joy shall be in Heaven over one sinner that repenteth, than over ninety and nine just persons who need no repentance." (Luke 15:7)
labourlist.org
Labour members willing to accept Green defections, but not Tories or Reform - poll - LabourList
Labour members would welcome high-profile defections from the Greens, but oppose any from the Conservatives or Reform UK, exclusive polling for LabourList reveals.
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Three of the UK’s four nations are led by parties advocating a split. Which is most likely to go? theconversation.com/three-of-the...
theconversation.com
Three of the UK’s four nations are led by parties advocating a split. Which is most likely to go?
New prime minister Andy Burnham is facing renewed calls for independence votes.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Yes, but the John Barnes and Ian Wright stuff was so painfully inauthentic and obviously written by someone who doesn't know anything about footie and/or wasn't around when they were having to put up with what they - and other black players - had to put up with.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
As we all know, it's always far harder to spot errors when they reinforce the case you're wanting to make.
theguardian.com
Tories overstate net zero cost by nearly £500bn in apparent spreadsheet error
Exclusive: Badenoch’s flagship conference policy document cites £957bn estimate, twice the total in climate advisers’ data
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Agree - and the hagiography around Badenoch herself in some Tory circles risks fuelling a faith-based (rather than evidence-based) belief in what she's doing. She's definitely better than she was, but she's not necessarily as brilliant as they think.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Top marks, Playbook. Top marks! 😂👏
MEET YOUR MP: Abdi-Wali, 42, has taken an unusual route to Westminster. Born in Somalia, she arrived in Britain as a child refugee and went on to become leader of Camden Council. She has also experienced hardship, choosing to support Tottenham Hotspur at a young age. Politically Abdi-Wali is firmly in Labour’s mainstream, backing Andy Burnham rather than Jeremy Corbyn for leader after she joined the party in 2015. She later chaired Starmer’s constituency party and remains a close ally of the ex-PM.
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billkittle.bsky.social @billkittle.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
That's a lot of tortoises!
theguardian.com
Scientists discover 180,000 giant tortoises on one Seychelles island
Free-roaming Aldabra population far exceeds human population of Seychelles after decades-long recovery programme
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Labour, as a mid-term government, can be pretty satisfied with losing just four points, although the Greens moving up 22 points after the week they've had should help Burnham and co. avoid complacency.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Interesting as always from @robertshrimsley.bsky.social but worth noting that plenty of other European centre-right parties have tried the same strategy, slagging off their far-right rivals as extreme while adopting many of their policies and their rhetoric. Not sure it will work any better here.
ft.com
Badenoch’s punchy plan to reunite the right
It was just a speech, but the Tory leader’s rejection of Reform reveals a new and determined strategy
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
True - and for a really positive take, see
kellnerp.substack.com
The figures that make Sagal Abdi-Wali’s victory remarkable
Ignore the Greens’ misleading claims. It was a catastrophic night for Zack Polanski
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Lewis Baston @lewisbaston.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
This suggests - gently, as it’s only two results - that there has been a 5-6 point swing from Green to Lab since May in seriously contested elections in their main battleground.
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Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
A good read but I wish everyone would instead of using “will of the people” point out that less than 40% of the electorate voted Leave. That as Parliament recognised in 1977 when it set a 40% threshold for devolution is not the will of the people.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Labour, as a mid-term government, can be pretty satisfied with losing just four points, although the Greens moving up 22 points after the week they've had should help Burnham and co. avoid complacency.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Naïve optimism or about right? "Many European politicians and publics would, whatever the obstacles negotiations might throw up, be happy to see the UK finally admitting to itself that, in an increasingly unstable economic and geopolitical environment, being inside the EU is the safest place to be."
aa.com.tr
End of the Brexit era? Burnham's pivot back to Europe
Brexit has done severe damage to the UK and that's why Burnham has, after just 10 weeks in the job, concluded that more has to be done to reverse or at least further mitigate the colossal act of self-...
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