Sign in

Ruth Curtice

@ruthcurtice.bsky.social
2.9K followers 436 following 351 posts

Chief Executive, Resolution Foundation

PostsRepliesMedia
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
How much do the triple lock changes save? Could be nothing, could be tens of billions is not normally a good answer to a question. But here I try to explain why it is the honest one. Moving off a policy with such volatility was essential either way. resolutionfoundation.substack.com/p/why-nobody...
resolutionfoundation.substack.com
Why nobody knows how much we’ll save from the triple lock announcement
Ruth Curtice and Parth Pandya consider the uncountable savings from the PM’s new policy
071
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The triple lock announcement today is essentially a shift to a long-run link to earnings. But with a minimum of inflation or 2.5% in any given year. Most importantly that removes the permanent ratchet above earnings.
23216
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 29/09/2026
The triple lock on the State Pension will be 'adjusted' from April 2030. What might that mean for the value of the State Pension? In this chart we show how the State Pension would have increased under various uprating measures, including the 'smoothed' triple lock announced by the PM today.
0163
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Important analysis out today re new productivity data. UK workers still less productive than French ones, but this gap didn't emerge post financial crisis. Hours worked more important than we realised for boosting UK growth. &OBR no longer look optimistic relative to post financial crisis trends.
033
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Quite apart from the substance here the headline is so silly. The Chancellor decides how much to borrow and the bond market determines how much he will pay for it. It's not up to the Treasury to decide what's allowed! www.ft.com/content/5dec... via @FT
ft.com
Treasury open to smaller fiscal headroom to reduce UK tax hikes
Investors signal Budget buffer could fall from the £23.6bn forecast to around £14bn without spooking gilt market
051
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Cillian Sheehan @cillian-sheehan.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Some tough news for John Healey this morning: August borrowing came in at £18.3bn – that’s up from £15.4bn a year ago and the second highest August on record. This shows why the Chancellor faces a tricky balancing act ahead for the Budget. Short thread…🧵
2109
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
CPI inflation jumps back up to 3.1% in August from 2.9% in July. This was in line with market expectations but above the BoE forecast (from July). The worse news is that with rising oil and gas prices there is more of this to come... Short thread to follow.
158
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
DWP has just published a flurry of new data on how PIP and UC-Health assessments are carried out (face-to-face or via phone, video or paper) and whether this impacts who gets awarded health-related benefits. Five takeaways 🧵
11814
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Rumours Healey will lean into greater use of public financial institutions as a way to boost investment. Affectionately known as PuFins this raises a question: which was the better leaving gift for Elliott Christensen - a Chancellor listening to his report or a resolution foundation cuddly puffin?
191
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Refreshing to see a business group come out and support specific cuts, not just ask for goodies. And of course I agree that moving off the triple lock in exchange for better support for young people would be right trade to make - www.britishchambers.org.uk/wp-content/u...
britishchambers.org.uk
1103
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Anand Menon @anandmenon.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Not to wish your weekend away, but admit it, you're bloody excited about getting your hands on one of these on Tuesday, aren't you? H/T @resolutionfoundation.org @ruthcurtice.bsky.social
032
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Amber Younis-Wood @amberyouniswood.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Autumn Budget 2026 has just been announced for 28 October so it’s time to get technical about living standards. The two main measures of household income, RHDI and HBAI, can tell very different stories. The new @resolutionfoundation.org spotlight I’ve just published explains why. 🧵⤵️
194
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Zachary Leather @zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org · 22/07/2026
Today Burnham announced the return of the £2 bus fare cap, a much loved policy of previous Governments that was raised to £3 by Reeves two years ago. But who will benefit? [THREAD]
43410
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Ahead of Reeves delivering what most people assume will be her final Mansion House speech we’ve been looking at the data on how the economic picture has changed over the past two years. What is Reeves’ legacy?
24725
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Huge congratulations to Silvana and what a great appointment for the IMF. Having worked closely with Silvana as an @resolutionfoundation.org associate it is clear that she will be amazing in this job. Sad to see her exit the UK policy debate - but our loss is the world economy's gain! 👏👏👏
033
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Some of the headroom estimates in this article look a touch optimistic to me. But we're all guessing at this point. One thing we can be sure of is that the Treasury's briefing to a new PM will not start "things are much better than people think actually". www.ft.com/content/c4ce...
020
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Lots on and missed this. Patrick is right that the government should hurry up and appoint a National Statistician as @hetanshah.bsky.social has said. But we must stop criticising the ONS for old mistakes, or for being honest about new ones, to help it turn around. www.ft.com/content/fe04...
ft.com
The ONS: an Outrage of National Significance
The UK statistics agency plays a vital role but has been beset by errors and poor leadership
1133
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Important analysis of today's announcement and its implications from Zachary.
121
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Good to see Andy Burnham place the stagnant living standards of the last twenty years at the heart of his economic agenda today. But what are the chances of growth in every postcode, and what would it take to get there? A thread…
32212
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Lots of jobs changing at the moment - but let's focus on the most important. I am recruiting for a new partner in crime. Take a look, and get in touch if you want to help us deliver higher living standards across the UK, with an incredible team. www.resolutionfoundation.org/director/
resolutionfoundation.org
Director • Resolution Foundation
The Resolution Foundation is seeking a new Director, to work closely with the Chief Executive to develop and deliver the overall strategy of the organisation; to drive the next phase of the Foundation...
11414
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 26/06/2026
With Andy Burnhnam looking ever more likely to be the next PM, what tough decisions lie ahead for him? Turns out the new trade-offs look a lot like the old trade-offs. @ruthcurtice.bsky.social breaks down the challenges – from living standards to public services – in 5 charts ⬇️ buff.ly/vTEZMib
resolutionfoundation.org
Dear Andy • Resolution Foundation
Morning all, I don’t know why major international football tournaments provoke upheaval on Downing Street, but there’s definitely a pattern emerging. So, we’ve got a special edition for you, laying…
064
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Very pleased that bbc verify have now corrected their chart based on our points - kudos to them for listening www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
What's happened to UK defence spending?
BBC Verify looks at the size of the UK military after Lord Robertson criticises the government over defence spending.
081
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Fun to be back in the weeds of public sector finances data to appear on world@1 today. The high debt-interest today is a one off thanks to the jump in inflation in March. Debt interest forecasts in the autumn will depend on whether yields are higher or lower in the ten days the OBR happen to use.
050
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
This 'bloody southerners' thing may well have worked well for the King of the North in Makerfield. Whether it'll help him should he become King of the South, West and East as well is open to question.... (h/t @ruthcurtice.bsky.social)
Trust no one. As Burnham blames Westminster for the woes of Makerfield, this research suggests he is tapping into some deep-rooted psychology. The analysis investigates how trust is felt up-North and down-South. Participants play a trust and dictator game, with a separate group of spectators incentivised to guess the trustworthiness of each pair… but only based on where they’re from. The author finds that Southerners seem no more suspicious of Northerners than they are of their own – but Northerners trust Southerners far less. This cultural trust gap is attributed to the belief that Southerners are more selfish. The author reflects on the policy implications of this mistrust, noting that trust divides can damage prosperity. But no prizes for guessing the answers Burnham and Starmer would put in the trust and dictator game this weekend…
93710
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
There’ll be a good weather impact, but even so - retail sales well ahead of expectations in May. www.ons.gov.uk/businessindu...
ons.gov.uk
Retail sales, Great Britain - Office for National Statistics
Retail sales rose in the three months to May 2026, according to our first estimate.
2172
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Continuing signs of a weak labour market in this mornings data. And a very striking rise in zero hours contract - see Louise's brilliant thread for more.
111
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
As debates rage about where to get the money for higher defence spending, it’s important we have a clear picture of how we spent the peace dividend while it was around. Thread 🧵⤵️
13299158
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
🧵It’s time to stop being polite about the triple lock! It was always a poorly designed, unfair, arbitrary ratchet and we can no longer afford it. New @resolutionfoundation.org spotlight out this morning🧵 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
What a ratchet! • Resolution Foundation
The State Pension triple lock has delivered real gains for pensioners since its introduction in 2012. But the case for boosting pensioner incomes over and above others has now run out, while the case ...
4208
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Sarah O'Connor @sarahoconnorft.ft.com · 04/06/2026
Today, my book finally enters the big wide world! Exciting and also nerve-wracking! I'm really thrilled with this lovely review in The Spectator today, which describes it as "powerful and refreshing". If that sounds like YOUR cup of tea, please buy a copy! spectator.com/article/will...
1322931
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
If you missed @soumayakeynes.ft.com and @chadpbown.com then you missed 1) why this isn't all about Trump 2) why the UK will need to pick a side and 3) how to arm yourself in the fight. But don't worry you can buy the book! Everything you wanted to know about trade but were too afraid to ask.
172
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Soumaya Keynes @soumayakeynes.ft.com · 01/06/2026
Guess who’s in London and excited for our talks this week at the Resolution Foundation (tomorrow) and the LSE (Thursday)?!!?? PS the ukulele may or may not be making an appearance tomorrow - but only in person so you should DEFINITELY brave the tube strike
1295
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 20/05/2026
"If people felt better off, the Government would be getting a lower penalty on its handling of other things" @profjanegreen.bsky.social spoke to us about whether higher living standards the key to electoral success. Subscribe to High Resolution wherever you get your podcasts ⤵️ buff.ly/xAvHIV0
144
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
IMF's review of the UK is v positive in the scheme of these things. Fiscal&growth policy on the right track. One v significant nugget "the long-term scope for further revenue increases is becoming limited unless more fundamental tax reforms are envisaged" www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
United Kingdom: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2026 Article IV Mission
• While the UK economy has remained resilient in recent years, the war in the Middle East is dampening near-term prospects. Growth is projected to slow to 1.0 percent this year, then gradually recover...
040
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Enjoyed the solid debates this morning at our event about whether Sunak, Boris, or Thatcher represent the most appropriate analogy for current times. But for the Sunak camp it did start pouring it down in Westminster about ten mins after Wes announcement.
160
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Bank of England follows the Fed and holds its policy rate at 3.75% given uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East. BoE hints it will be patient on raising rates but the bigger issue is its assessment of the impact of the war. Thread on all that to follow...
295
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
What happens when you increase the Irish talent at RF....kudos to @cillian-sheehan.bsky.social for this chart of the week to lighten the mood as beer garden weather finally kicks in.
1175
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Looking forward to this one already - that moment when your clever friend writes an awesome book and you get to interview them about it on stage! @soumayakeynes.ft.com www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/how-t...
resolutionfoundation.org
How to win a trade war • Resolution Foundation
Register to attend in person or to receive an access link for online viewers. Trade wars are becoming a feature of the modern global economy and are being tied to actual wars too. Britain has played i...
051
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Great event. It is hard to size economic effects through uncertainty but policymakers can't "wait and see" forever so we have to try. The Bank face their next decision in a month and the government has time before deciding whether to provide energy bill support.
111
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 17/04/2026
For our chart of the week we've dug into the data on school absences. Worryingly, the rate of severe school absences is rising. And there's a lot of regional variation, with London performing significantly better. Read the full newletter from @ruthcurtice.bsky.social ⤵️ buff.ly/SdrRmBm
Chart showing rate of severe school absences by region: England
041
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Pre-Middle East conflict UK economic data from ONS: GDP rose by 0.5% in February Unemployment fell from 5.3 to 4.9% in January Borrowing in February £1.9bn below the OBR forecast Positive trends now all at risk. No wonder the Chancellor is seething in Washington…
053
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Jonny Marshall @jonnymarshall.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Good to see removing the Carbon Price Support form part of this. Something @resolutionfoundation.org suggested way back in 2023
094
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social times column this week is an incredibly pithy (even by his standards!) summary of the issues and changes in working age welfare - including why spending on it isn't out of control.
16444
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Today we discussed new research from @resolutionfoundation.org co-authored with @gthwaites.bsky.social @annastansbury.bsky.social and Richmond Egyei on the long shadow that deep poverty in childhood casts over the earnings of graduates in the labour market. Thread below on what we found …
166
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Important report out today. Child poverty isn't just bad, it causes a lasting earnings penalty. Perhaps some gap is not so surprising. But I was shocked by the scale of the penalty persisting even for children who go to university, get the same degree and work for the same firm.
24522
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Gavin Kelly @gavin-kelly.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Come and shape the future of the Nuffield Foundation. A new & key leadership role at the UK’s leading independent funder of social & economic research. We fund evidence, back innovation & support pioneering practice. Join a great team at an exciting moment. roles.saxbam.com/advert-detai...
roles.saxbam.com
Advert
01932
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
I've been wondering this week whether we are all (myself included) talking too much about energy prices and not enough about food.
050
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Brilliant thread from Elliott unpacking this mornings public sector finances
040
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
Nye Cominetti @nyecominetti.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Today’s labour market stats were better than expected – headline unemployment didn’t rise thanks to a surprise Jan single month number, and payrolled jobs rose. Real wages are still growing (slowly), but war in the middle east clouds the outlook there. Thread from me and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social
11610
Reposted by Ruth Curtice
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Bank of England keeps rates at 3.75% on a striking unanimous vote. All eyes on how the BoE might change tack in the face of renewed energy shock. Thread on that to follow…
174
Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Good session at the TSC's Inquiry into the OBR. Thanks to @julianhjessop.bsky.social for the football analogy that survived the whole evidence session. Think we ended up all agreeing on one thing: the referee is not mainly to blame for the low growth high debt situation the UK finds itself in.
243