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Tom Barson

@tbarson49.bsky.social
145 followers 471 following 616 posts

Retired global IT services director. Hopeless eclectic with weaknesses for economics, history, philosophy of science, geopolitics, mathematics, and music. East Lansing, MI

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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Over on X, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde works a theme ("labor repression") once discussed intensively by @pseudoerasmus.bsky.social at pseudoerasmus.com/2017/10/02/i... (JFV's original post last summer had the credit, his summary today does not.) x.com/JesusFerna70...
x.com
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
I think the Economist's strategy in every case is to give the invitee enough rope.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
Remind me to wash my hands when the Turks decide to reoccupy Serbia.
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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 25/05/2025
“Fifty years from now, you will want to be able to look in the mirror and know that you did what you thought was right, in every part of your life. At the end of the day, your integrity is all you have.” Jay Powell www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
federalreserve.gov
Baccalaureate remarks by Chair Powell at the Princeton University Baccalaureate Ceremony
Thank you, President Eisgruber, for the opportunity to speak here today. Congratulations to the Princeton University class of 2025 on the tremendous achievemen
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Might one reason be that the US mainly exports that light Texas crude? (I've been told that the US mainly refines heavy oil and exports the higher-priced light stuff. If that's the case, then tariffs could have a big impact. Customers can't buy if they can't sell.)
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
"To believe that we live in a fallen world is to disgrace every one of our forebears who worked to give us a better future." Noah Smith puts paid to the oldest cultural criticism trope in the universe. @noahpinion.blogsky.venki.dev www.noahpinion.blog/p/you-are-th...
noahpinion.blog
You are the heir to something greater than Empire
Our golden age lies in our future, not our past.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 19/04/2025
This from @shadihamid.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | The dangerous pattern in Trump’s targeting of student activists
The administration doubles down on criminalizing criticism of a foreign country.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
Short and to the point by @shadihamid.bsky.social BTW, a quick search will get you to the defense fund sites for Mahmoud Khalil and Mohsen Mahdawi www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | The dangerous pattern in Trump’s targeting of student activists
The administration doubles down on criminalizing criticism of a foreign country.
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Jo Wolff @jowolff.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
Georgia O’Keefe says good morning.
Luscious red flower in white vase.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
Go fast and break things.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
Sure, Oren Cass is a noted (old-style) Republican policy guy. But an "economist"? www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | ‘I Hope I Am Wrong, but I Am Pretty Pessimistic’: Four Economists Dissect Trump’s Tariffs
The most dramatic effort to remake the post-World War II trade system was underway — until it wasn’t.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
Nils Gilman nails it. @nilsgilman.bsky.social www.persuasion.community/p/how-univer...
persuasion.community
How Universities Can Save Themselves
The crisis of the universities is worse than they realize. They must rediscover their core mission.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
“It looks as if Lenin thinks nationalism has more affective/unifying pull, that is, revolutionary potential, than class. This despite the fact that class conflict may well be one of the grounds that is one of the sparks that leads to revolt.” digressionsimpressions.substack.com/p/nation-cla...?
digressionsimpressions.substack.com
Nation > Class in Lenin on Imperialism.
One reason why J.A.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
OK, I get your point now. I made the behavioral observation (need for brevity made it seem critical -- I'm really talking about the mariginal utility of income) and you pointed out they were also being good Rawlsians. Fair enough.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
OK. But why do we care about what Rawls says is "acceptable"? If you were arguing this outcome was a Nash equilibrium, that would at least follow from original US/China "game" example.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Whether they would vote for it, if given the prospective choice, is another question. Whether they would punish a politician who did this, after the fact, is yet another. But I'm pretty sure a politician get more of their votes in the gain scenario than in the loss one. Disagree? 4/4
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
The question is whether the same behavior will be observed when we substitute losses for gains. I guess I can imagine lower income voters acquiescing to a tax increase if theirs get framed as a sacrifice and the hated elite's as a deserved punishment. 3/4
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
...how will groups act, not how should they act. My sense, based on the recent election, is that lower income voters will accept any permanent gain (e.g., a tac cut) as evidence that "He fought for me," with no apparent expectation that he won't feather his own (or his class's) nest even more. 2/4
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
So, Branko, apologies (a deadline to blame) for not responding immediately. But I don't understand the appeal to Rawls here. When we switched from the "game" to inequality (no game, in my view) it seemed like the discussion had to go forward in terms of behavioral laws. In other words... 1/4
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Yeah, I guess libertarians get the same right-twice-a-day broken clock guarantee that I get. But, yes, his example is spot-on.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
I have a hard time imagining them being content the direction of your example outside of, say, a "national emergency" (with its applied promise of recompense upon resolution). But maybe the fallout of "Liberation Day" will be a kind of test case. 2/2
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Well, the lower-income Trump voter seems to use this logic, but in the opposite direction. They will accept huge income gains for the wealthy as long as a small income gains (say, a tax cut) are earmarked for them. 1/2
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Note that this isn't economics, or even "political economy". Only in a pure great power conflict "game" could you possibly justify the assertion that the least-loser "wins" via an implicit claim that less is more.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Will read. But do see today's WaPo piece in which USTR's cited economists take down the formula. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
Analysis | Trump White House cited economists for its tariff formula. They pan it.
Economists say the administration’s formula fails to take into account whether conditions change.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
You're a goner for sure. (But it sounds really interesting.)
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Looks like a prison!
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Exactly. That's the point. It doesn't matter if you hate Trump's agenda. Given this action, with their every purchase, every American gets sucked into his zero-sum worldview.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Such as, interrupting your profound statement with "Those glasses do nothing for you."
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Great piece. That first quote - Lenin giving us a spec for a combined data warehouse and control system - made my day. Maybe ironically, headlines that one-sidedly juice thoughtful essays or op-eds are something I complain about. But here I just knew where the iece wanted to go!
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
It can be both, stupid.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Lenin as the architect of DOGE. Beautiful. @nescio13.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/digressi...
open.substack.com
Lenin's Political Economy of Information in Monopoly Capitalism
In chapter 2 of Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism (1916), Lenin offers an account of the role the transition of the banking sector plays in his stadial theory of the development of monopoly...
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Today's WaPo "Fact Checker" surveys the economists cited in the USTR post on "Reciprocal Tariff Calculations". Congrats to glennkessler.bsky.social for laying bare this fraudulent analysis. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
Analysis | Trump White House cited economists for its tariff formula. They pan it.
Economists say the administration’s formula fails to take into account whether conditions change.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Yes, of course. I read the formula as saying "consumers should pay, through tariffs, for 100% of US bilateral trade deficits (as of the last time it was measured)." So, if no one changes buying habits, the tariffs will pull -- what, ~4% of GDP? -- from spending on US produced goods and services.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
In the "It's an ill wind..." dept., @delong.social reminds us that if a bot has replaced Navarro, Hassett, Bessent & Co, Liberation Day might be a net win. FWIW, I ran the "Reciprocal Tariff" formula past DeepSeek, which quickly replied that it was nonsense. braddelong.substack.com/p/tariffs-by...
braddelong.substack.com
Tariffs by Chatbot: Trump’s Trade Policy as AI-Generated Farce
Trump’s tariff regime isn’t just wrong—it’s mathematically incoherent, diplomatically corrosive, and economically catastrophic...
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Per Dominick Preston, ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, and Claude all recommend or endorse the laughable "reciprocal tariffs" formula. FWIW, when I gave the formula to DeepSeek, it quickly replied that it was nonsense. www.theverge.com/news/642620/...
theverge.com
Trump’s new tariff math looks a lot like ChatGPT’s
ChatGPT may be the White House’s latest economic advisor.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Geez I wish MW were still the day's hot issue...
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Any sense where the formula comes from? USTR cites recent Pujolas & Rossbach research that suggests tariffs can be welfare improving for counties with large deficits. But I don't find anything like this formula there.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Nothing pretty about a frustrated sense of entitlement.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
What I find disappointingly incomprehensible is that every word in this piece doesn't go without saying. But since apparently they don't, thank you, Keker, Van Nest & Peters. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/30/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | For God’s Sake, Fellow Lawyers, Stand Up to Trump
The time has come to defend the oath we took when we became officers of the court.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
I don't get this comment. The "business community" doesn't really have a policy reaction voice, yet it clearly needs revise forecasts and business plans based on the latest information. CEOs can't volunteer their companies for retaliation, either. Clear tho is that Hassett is (still) a total hack
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 30/03/2025
Peter Navarro goes full Orwell on Fox News Sunday: "The message is that tariffs are tax cuts."
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 29/03/2025
Nice
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
But he didn't, not in any legislative way that could be trumpeted. Unskilled real wages started rising in ~2019 as a tight labor market (finally) emerged from years of near-0 interest rates. Real wage gains since 2021 were small compared to the nominal wage gains mostly eaten up by inflation.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Probably you did, since the cuts (though absurdly tilted towards the highest-earning brackets) were across the board. This is precisely the problem. Trump's supporters seem to be satisfied with crumbs, as long as they are accompanied by cultural reinforcement.
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
But @sharonk.bsky.social 's point is right on. Trump voters prefer income to programs. when they say Trump "fought for them" they mean he gave them a tax cut (which they see in every paycheck) and they believe he will come through for them again.
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100.3 The Q! @theq.fm · 21/03/2025
I've never seen anyone windmill on a violin before, but I'm certainly looking forward to it. Happy Friday -Scott
The members of The Who, dressed in tuxedos, are preparing to play orchestral instruments. Roger Daltrey is saying "Tonight's program will be selections from our new opera, 'Thomas'". The caption for the image reads "The Whom"
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
One grim fact is that there is no essential connection between the modern research university and the values of liberal democracy other than, as (recall) Michael Polanyi noted, that they can have the same enemies. digressionsimpressions.substack.com/p/on-the-pre...
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
But is it necessary to insist on this distinction in this context?
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Tom Barson @tbarson49.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Substance, substance, substance. @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social @davidshor.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Democrats Need to Face Why Trump Won
The Democratic pollster David Shor walks through what voter data reveals about the 2024 election — and how the American electorate is shifting.
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Shadi Hamid @shadihamid.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
It's on.
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