iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Just to update this chart: 1 - AI salience has increased dramatically in the past week - increasing as much in the last week as the previous year combined

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

We cross-referenced the psychometric personality data of ~ 1 million people with their zodiac astrological signs: 1) There is a small but statistically significant effect of zodiac sign on personality controlling for demographic and attitudinal variables

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

America's Jewish neighborhoods - both Hasidic and non-Hasidic - are trending fast toward Republicans while similar non-Jewish precincts matched on demographics like education and income have trended toward the Democrats

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

One of the hardest problems in politics is that people who are capable eloquently organize their thoughts and perspectives in writing are really weird and unrepresentative! This is true between groups but also is even more true *within* groups

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

We're hiring Machine Learning Scientists for our election forecasting team! Our election forecasting team works with the largest collection of political data ever assembled and helps allocate billions of dollars in resources - it's a pretty cool job - come work with us! grnh.se/uok4eeeh4us

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Just to emphasize how bad of a hole the Trump Administration is in right now, gas price approval this morning literally plummeted so far we had to fix the Y axis of this chart.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

We conducted a bunch of polling on the red-blue button dilemma. Highlights: 1) Blue beats red by a 3:1 margin 2) Red button pushers report being less empathetic and higher frequency of anti-social behavior 3) Red button pushers are more supportive of Luigi Mangione controlling for ideology

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Excited to be on Odd Lots to talk about the politics of AI! AI today is less important than it will ever be. Over the past year, AI rose in issue importance faster than any issue we track — it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care, and abortion.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

Jewish/Muslim segregation in Israel is unlike anything seen anywhere in the US within living memory. Israeli Jews are ~7x more likely to have zero Muslim neighbors than white Americans are to have zero Black neighbors — for Israeli Muslims vs Black Americans, it's ~78x.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

New poll of Denmark residents (N=1,200; Jan 27–Feb 2). Trump’s Greenland push has basically unified the entire country against him. No huge surprise, but a -94 approval rating amongst Danes is pretty impressive.

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Alon (they/them) @alonlevy.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

One of the insights of @davidshor.bsky.social is that a party or movement can take an unpopular issue and run with it and make it popular among its own voters, getting from 15% support to 45% support, it just can't get over 50% that way. (This is more or less happening re Venezuela.)

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

Do you support or oppose new AI data centers being built in your local community? 31% support, 44% oppose Would you support or oppose new data centers if they lowered your property taxes by 10%? 59% support 18% oppose

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

We recently tested ~ a dozen public statements from a diverse set of Democratic elected officials on the murder of Renee Good and this was the top testing one

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 28/12/2025

When you ask Americans whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about AI, optimism beats pessimism by ~5 points. The primary fault lines are age, gender, and race - young people, men, and racial minorities are the most optimistic about AI. N=30,900 , fielded 12/1 to 12/10

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

Because child gender is ~ random, we can estimate the causal impact of being a "boy mom" vs "girl mom" by conditioning on # of kids. Mothers with sons are ~3% more Republican, while mothers with daughters are ~4% more Democratic. Child gender has ~ zero effect on fathers.

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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 12/12/2025

This from @davidshor.bsky.social made me LOL. "having wealthy people or economists be mad at you is a feature, not a bug" .... anyway, it's a very interesting conversation I recommend it.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 12/12/2025

Really excited I got to talk to @bharatramamurti.bsky.social about what the polling says about AI, people’s intuitions of fairness in a hypothetical post scarcity world, and most controversially what I think about PRICE CONTROLS Check it out! bharatramamurti.substack.com/p/a-conversa...

bharatramamurti.substack.com

A Conversation with David Shor of Blue Rose Research

What public opinion tells us about AI, affordability, and more

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

Young voters are now 3x as likely to report having been estranged from their parents for an extended period of time than voters over the age of 65. Parental estrangement is uncorrelated with partisanship and is concentrated among low-turnout independents.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

Amazon/Microsoft/Google/Apple all have very high net favs, Nvidia is unknown, Tesla is unpopular, Meta is somewhere in between "Big tech companies" in general underperform the average of specific tech companies and are narrowly underwater - but still much more popular than both political parties

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

The issue landscape has changed dramatically over the last year - Democrats successfully have simultaneously raised the salience and expanded our trust advantage on our best issue (healthcare) *and* dramatically improved our trust advantage on the cost of living and the economy

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Crooked Media @crooked.com · 07/11/2025

David Shor: "[Zohran Mamdani] ran the most economically focused campaign of any politician that I can remember maybe since Barack Obama in 2012." #crookedcon2025

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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 24/08/2025

Video of this year's Harvard Hutchins Center forum: What went wrong? What's next? Thoughtful and provocative conversation. Jonathan Capehart, Astead Herndon, Sherrilyn Ifill, David Shor, Laurence Tribe, Charlene Hunter-Gault www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld4k...

youtube.com

WATCH LIVE: The 2025 Hutchins Forum

YouTube video by PBS NewsHour

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 12/07/2025

Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

The mayor race on Tuesday saw massive turnout differentials - turnout in @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social’sbstrongest precincts was up ~30% while turnout in Cuomo’s best districts were ~ flat. These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

Traditionally there's been a quant/qual split on ad length in Democratic politics, with [usually more moderate] quants pushing for shorter 15 second ads and [usually more progressive] qual folks pushing for 60 second ads. Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

Zohran raised a lot less money than you'd expect given his vote share and educated coalition - he barely outraised Lander! His prioritization of persuasion over fundraising in his public facing communication was extremely unusual and more Democrats should follow his lead!

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

@zohrankmamdani.bsky.social is a great example of how far you can go if you genuinely center your campaign in an engaging way around the issue that voters overwhelmingly say in surveys they care the most about www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyL4...

youtube.com

NYC is Suffering from Halalflation

YouTube video by Zohran Mamdani for NYC

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 16/05/2025

Excited to signal boost @shiraamitchell.bsky.social and @ccgilroy.bsky.social 's response to the @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social and Caroline Soler's critiques of our estimates of Harris support among non-voters and youth voters. Our main points:

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

Really great to see @rokhanna.bsky.social stand up for tracking - removing advanced classes from schools is literally the single most unpopular policy we've ever polled

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 12/05/2025

If you're in the Bay Area tomorrow and want to learn more about ways to apply AI skills toward progressive change and fighting Trump, come check us out on Tuesday May 13th! lu.ma/dugt12v6

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 18/03/2025

Also we’re hiring for an AI-focused machine learning engineer role at Blue Rose! This is a great chance to be at the forefront of using cutting edge machine learning techniques to resist Donald Trump! t.co/dwE3D3mJ4F

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Gillian Branstetter @gbbranstetter.bsky.social · 18/03/2025

This, from David Shor, is what I've been saying for a while. A lot of post-election punditry has decided trans issues are a "luxury belief" but also the obsessive hatred of us across the right-wing is somehow not. It's a rich man's game, society's wealthiest scapegoating the wrong 1%

When you look at Donald Trump’s best-performing ads, it was basically the economy, gas prices, immigration and crime. There has definitely been an overemphasis on D.E.I., wokeness and trans issues.

It definitely played a role in elite discourse and in why so many tech chief executive officers have shifted to the right. I believe Republicans are making a mistake to focus on these things instead of concrete issues that people actually care about.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 18/03/2025

Excited to join @ezraklein to talk through what happened in 2024. There's a turnout story this cycle, but not the one we're used to talking about. With less-engaged and less-likely voters becoming more Republican, a larger turnout meant a more GOP electorate.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

Come work with us!

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

I also struggle to find a lot of solace in the fact that Dems are going to romp in 2026, but all the evidence is that they're going to. I'm stealing this from @davidshor.bsky.social on Twitter but current generic ballot polling suggests Dems will win 2 party vote by 8 points 18 months from now.

scatterplot of early generic ballot polling (1st quarter) and midterm results.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

The defining psychometric characteristics of leftist anti-Dems after you control for demographics/ideology are pretty anchored around wanting to rebel against authority and be different than the mainstream. They can’t really help it, it’s who they are on a very fundamental level

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

People who most strongly disagree with “I keep my promises” are ~7x likelier to support Luigi than those who strongly agree

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Joost @almodozo.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Looking at the Berlin election map, the transformation of Die Linke's results from 2009 to 2025 is clear: not just the evolution from East-German party to East/West coalition, but the inner/outer Berlin switch too. (Maps from interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/bundesta...)

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

The share of Republican men and women who believe "women should return to their traditional gender roles" has increased by ~1.5X since 2022, with the position now achieving plurality status among GOP men. t.co/bjOaDde6Y0

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 08/02/2025

Explicit antisemitic attitudes are now much more common among young voters - 18 year old registered voters are now ~5x more likely to say that they have an unfavorable view of the Jewish people than 65 year olds.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

Zoomers care more about making money than any generation in at least 50 years

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

In Norway the gender gap in support for left wing parties among high-school aged teenagers *doubled in size* during covid, with the increase being mostly driven by a dramatic increase in the share of teenage boys who believe "gender equality has gone too far"

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 19/01/2025

Yeah - this is the classic example I give for 1) “Racial resentment” does actually measure what it says it does contrary to what anti-woke people say 2) whatever drive Trump was probably “upstream in the DAG” from RR - easier to see now that working class non-whites have swung so R ofc

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 19/01/2025

Really great write-up here on what the DNC actually spends it's money on. cauldronllc.substack.com/p/what-did-t...

cauldronllc.substack.com

What Did The DNC Do This Cycle?

Examining yet more FEC filings

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 19/01/2025

This is the party reg breakdown among white 18 year old men on the TS voter file and our raw polling by party registration among vf-validated 18 year old white male 2024 voters. Multiply this out and you get ~29% for folks in party reg states.

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 12/01/2025

The extent to which young voters cared about climate change has been overstated. Even among Dem leaning young voters, climate change was tied with housing for the top 10% of political participation, housing dominated for bottom 90%. Inflation was even more dominant. youtu.be/bLcP5juxmdA?...

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David Shor @davidshor.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

The whole deal this cycle was that people who don’t care about politics became a lot more Republican. This generally means that Democrats would have done worse if turnout was higher.

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