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Ash Splawinski

@splawinski.bsky.social
345 followers 167 following 277 posts

PhD candidate in political science @ UofT Researching federalism, policy design, administrative burdens, and political mobilization Previously a visiting scholar at UT Austin & CU Denver Sometimes I podcast. Listen to Nobody’s In Charge on Spotify or Apple

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Ash Splawinski
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 22h
New from me: I unpack what happened at the Jack Smith hearing, and offer a theory of what the hell Senator Eric Schmitt thought he was doing. And yes, an inability to tell the difference between the Hawks and Hawkeyes really did seem to be a big part of it. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-happe...
donmoynihan.substack.com
What happened at the Jack Smith hearing?
A guide for the perplexed. And yes, it does say something about the state of the Republican Party
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Pam Herd @pamherd.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
America.gov launched today--a DOGE initiative to use AI to deliver public services. Child lying facedown on a frozen lake as the image accompanying the question: "How can I invest in my child's future" is just incredible. Way to go AI
Image of a child lying facedown on a froze lake.  above is the portal where you ask AI questions about government services.  the question matching this image is:  "How can I invest in my child's future?"
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Ann M. Lipton @annmlipton.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
this is at least as responsible for the hostility to AI as anything else: forcing it into every corner of life even when it's just obviously not ready. It could be ready one day! But it isn't now and the people forcing it on us are not the ones who suffer arstechnica.com/health/2026/...
arstechnica.com
Trump admin using AI to deny medical care for seniors in disastrous experiment
Vendors rolling out AI have an "incentive to deny as many claims as possible."
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I know there were several factors at play, but I feel like we can draw a direct line from this ideology to the alleged lack of U.S. support for General Jennie Carignan — a very qualified candidate — who just lost her bid to chair the NATO Military Committee. www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
cbc.ca
Canada's top general loses election to become head of key NATO Military Committee | CBC News
Despite a push from the federal government, Canada's chief of the defence staff has lost a vote to be the next chair of the NATO Military Committee, the alliance's top military authority and a key adv...
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Reuters @reuters.com · 25/09/2026
Trump sees no urgency for Canada deal as trade dispute deepens, USTR says reut.rs/4hoPBuB
reut.rs
Trump sees no urgency for Canada deal as trade dispute deepens, USTR says
President Donald Trump's administration is comfortable maintaining its trade standoff with Canada even as new US import ​bans on Canadian products take effect next week and Washington threatens 50% tariffs ‌on Canadian autos, parts and steel from January, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Friday.
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Larry J. Simon @larryjsimon.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring … and it blossoms in the summer … and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall all alone … just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops." mason.gmu.edu/~rmatz/giama...
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I'm at whatever stage of dissertation writing this is. Ami Kusakari absolutely killing it on the bass helps. Like, a lot. www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxqY...
youtube.com
サカナクション / 忘れられないの -Music Video-
YouTube video by サカナクション sakanaction
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Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
BREAKING: SCOTUS keeps the Missouri 2022 congressional map in effect for this election in an order that criticizes the Eighth Circuit's actions in the case. The five page, per curiam — unsigned order — came with no noted dissents. More to come at Law Dork: www.lawdork.com
lawdork.com
Law Dork | Chris Geidner | Substack
The Supreme Court, law, politics, and more. Click to read Law Dork, by Chris Geidner, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
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Reuters @reuters.com · 25/09/2026
Polymarket sues New York attorney general to block regulation of its prediction market reut.rs/4d59kOF
reut.rs
Polymarket sues New York attorney general to block regulation of its prediction market
Polymarket sued ​New York ‌Attorney General Letitia James and ​other state ​officials on Thursday ⁠evening, to ​block them from ​regulating its prediction market.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Hey, policy geeks! New paper alert!🚨 My new piece in PSJ argues that donor conception offers a theoretically distinctive site for the study of administrative burden, policy feedback, and the social construction of target populations. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
<em>Policy Studies Journal</em> | PSO Public Policy Journal | Wiley Online Library
Donor-conceived adults are a growing population, mobilizing against the very regulatory arrangements that determined the terms into which they were conceived. In Canada and the United States, where d...
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Reminder that S.Res.708 is kinda the only thing Congress (well, the Senate) has done to address prediction markets. And it only stops Senators from trading. How long until the CFTC gets involved and does what they always do - insist this totally isn't gambling and that they have jurisdiction here.
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
My latest @npr.org story: Registered voters are less confident that the U.S. Postal Service will deliver mail-in ballots on time compared to 2024, a NPR / @pbsnews.org / @maristpoll.bsky.social poll finds, after USPS was part of President Trump’s failed bid to limit mail voting for the midterms
npr.org
Poll: Trust in the U.S. Postal Service delivering mail-in ballots on time has fallen
Registered voters are less confident that USPS will deliver election mail on time compared with 2024, an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds, after USPS was part of Trump's bid to limit mail voting.
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Sam Bagenstos @sbagen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
What @mirandayaver.bsky.social said. mirandayaver.substack.com/p/the-medica...
mirandayaver.substack.com
The Medical Debt Crisis is a Policy Choice
A new report by The Commonwealth Fund highlights the widespread extend to which even people with health insurance bear medical debt – and it’s only going get worse with looming premium hikes.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Right. Yeah. I’m just gonna leave this here. www.cbc.ca/news/health/...
cbc.ca
More people are seeking emergency care for gambling, a new study says — and it's mostly men and boys | CBC News
New research published Wednesday in The American Journal of Preventive Medicine, found a nearly 100 per cent increase in emergency department visits, in just the past few years, following the rapid gr...
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
New from Lauren Supplee at Can We Still Govern? The US government had gradually become better at producing and using evidence. This evidence-based infrastructure is largely invisible, important, and one more thing gutted by Trump. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-system...
donmoynihan.substack.com
The System for Using Evidence to Improve Federal Programs Has Been Gutted
Here’s How We Fix It
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 19/09/2026
Online gambling companies have collected mass amounts of user data. Former DraftKings employees told The New York Times they used data science techniques to identify gamblers who were more likely to respond to promotional offers by betting — and losing.
nyti.ms
At DraftKings, AI Targets the Gamblers Likeliest to Lose
Data science helps determine who receives betting incentives, but the company has resisted using similar technology to protect gamblers at risk of addiction.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
U.S. fixation on masculinity and manhood has consequences beyond U.S. borders, reportedly including who gets to lead NATO. Canada's Gen. Jennie Carignan is in the running, but sources say a lack of U.S. support is working against her. www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
theglobeandmail.com
Canada not counting on win at NATO vote to pick alliance’s new military leader
Apparent lack of U.S. support for country’s top soldier, General Jennie Carignan, may block her path to victory Saturday, sources say
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Interesting contrast: Canada approved its first legal prediction-market app this summer and explicitly banned it from including elections. Meanwhile Polymarket/Kalshi (both American, both geo-restricted in BC) are actively taking bets on who wins Vancouver's mayoral race anyway. Sigh. Cool.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Election betting is banned in Canada, by the way. vancouver.citynews.ca/2026/09/17/p...
vancouver.citynews.ca
Over $200K USD already riding on Vancouver election
Vancouver’s mayoral election is exactly one month away, but some big money is already riding on the outcome.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Early voting for the U.S. midterns has begun following an “unprecedented spate of mid-decade redistricting for the U.S. House that began when Trump urged the Republican-controlled legislature in Texas to redraw its congressional map to help the party." 

 www.pbs.org/newshour/pol...
pbs.org
Early voting begins in U.S. midterm elections that could flip control of Congress
In-person voting for this year’s midterm elections began Friday, ushering in the final six weeks for Americans to decide which party they trust to lead Congress through a cost-of-living crisis, a prol...
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
1 in 10 people now live in a different congressional district than they did in 2024. That's over 35 million people! www.cbs19news.com/news/the-fig...
cbs19news.com
The fight over congressional maps put nearly 35 million people into new House districts, report says
A new report reveals that mid-decade redistricting for the U.S. House has changed congressional districts for one-tenth of Americans. The report by Protect Democracy shows that about 34.8 million peop...
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Reposted by Ash Splawinski
Edwin Park @edwincpark.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
My Georgetown CCF colleagues @adamsearing.bsky.social & @joanalker1.bsky.social on how residents of rural communities who rely on #Medicaid are at greater risk of being disenrolled and becoming uninsured due to H.R. 1's work reporting requirements: ccf.georgetown.edu/2026/09/14/r...
ccf.georgetown.edu
Rural Communities at Greater Risk of Harmful Impacts from New Medicaid Work Reporting Requirements
In 2025, Congress passed H.R. 1, legislation which requires work reporting requirements as a condition of Medicaid eligibility in the 41 states, including Washington, D.C., that have expanded coverage...
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Ryan Enos @ryanenos.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Like clockwork, every election cycle, somebody suddenly discovers that survey respondents have ideologically incoherent policy positions (this has been a bedrock finding of political science for over 60 years). www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Opinion | This Is Why So Many Voters Hate Both Parties (Gift Article)
Most voters have messier views than their partisan labels would suggest.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Political encroachment in statistical methods for political goals undermines confidence in the entire statistical system. That could hurt funding, response rates, and retention of expert staff, further degrading data quality. Read more at @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
Political meddling at the Census Bureau damages the entire US statistical system
This summer marks the worst period for US statistical integrity since President Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last August. Two different and seemingly uncoordinated eve...
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
There's a U.S. state that ran a primary this year in districts that, legally, kinda didn't exist. I discuss this bizarre situation, along with Texas and California, where redistricting has explicitly become a tool of political retaliation. open.spotify.com/episode/22LB...
open.spotify.com
Gerry's Salamander and A Confused Missouri
Nobody's In Charge · Episode
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
www.ctvnews.ca/world/trumps...
ctvnews.ca
Trump calls Canada becoming ‘associate member’ of EU a hostile act
U.S. President Donald Trump says if Canada becomes the first associate member of the European Union it would be a “hostile act.”
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Reposted by Ash Splawinski
Pollcat, AKA Scott Keeter @pollcat.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Almost 70% of national polls in 2024 were weighted on party affiliation or past vote. This kind of political weighting is controversial. But evidence shows it has made polls modestly more accurate. New report: how it works, how we do it and its limits: www.pewresearch.org/methods/2026...
pewresearch.org
Weighting Polls on Party Affiliation and Past Vote
This report explains how political weighting works, how Pew Research Center does it, and some of its limitations.
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Shefali Luthra @shefali.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Big news: The family of Tierra Walker, who died after she couldn't get an abortion, is suing a slate of Texas actors in state court, including AG Ken Paxton. They say the state ban is unconstitutional. This is the first suit of its kind. 19thnews.org/2026/09/texa...
19thnews.org
Tierra Walker died after she couldn’t get an abortion. Her family is suing Ken Paxton
The case, filed Tuesday, argues that Texas’ near-total abortion ban violates the state and U.S. Constitutions, which “prohibit state actors from killing their citizens.”
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Molly White @molly.wiki · 15/09/2026
Clarity Act has just surpassed 41 NOs in the cloture vote; it will not advance to a full vote. The bill is essentially dead in the water under this Congress.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
FOIA docs via @WIRED reveal that CFTC Enforcement authorized multiple insider-trading investigations into Polymarket event contracts this year (e.g., Biden pardon markets, Iran-related contracts).
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derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
When they eventually make a movie about this time, please don't put the male politicians in good suits. IMO, the ugly, low rent tailoring should be part of the story.
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Polling Canada @canadianpolling.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Canadians want a European Canada open.substack.com/pub/canadian...
open.substack.com
Canadians Want a European Canada
Nearly half of Canadians now support joining the European Union, while eight in ten support closer Canada-EU integration
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Karin Wulf @kawulf.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Thanks for reading my 🧵 on the voluminous discourse on higher ed in the US. I have some (probably obv but am noting anyway) thoughts about the phenomenon of endless reflections on higher ed/ flood of higher ed takes. Why is it different fr reporting and personal essays on other industries? 1/
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
is nothing sacred 😔
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Christopher Whitaker @civicwhitaker.com · 13/09/2026
If the Speaker feels they don’t have enough expertise there’s a way to bring it back - The Office of Technology Assessment! www.liberalcurrents.com/congress-nee...
liberalcurrents.com
Congress Needs Its Tech Experts Back
If Congress is to tackle issues from DOGE sabotage to AI to social media, it needs to resurrect its Office of Technology Assessment.
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Luke Farrell @lukef.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Government services are a maze for working people, but building that maze is highly profitable for some big corporations. I got to talk with @moreperfectunion.bsky.social about how this dynamic is breaking SNAP and Medicaid (and democracy!)
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The Associated Press @apnews.com · 08/09/2026
Canada’s tariffs on about $20 billion in U.S. goods have taken effect, responding to President Trump’s latest tariffs. Here’s what to know.
bit.ly
What to know about Canada’s escalating trade war with the US as Carney retaliates with tariffs
Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion worth of U.S. goods take effect Tuesday, turning its escalating trade war with President Donald Trump into a test watched far beyond the border: Can a country much smaller than the United States stand up to Trump and succeed?
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The Atlantic @theatlantic.com · 07/09/2026
Why is there still such sludge in our bureaucratic systems? @adamhsays.com speaks with @annielowrey.bsky.social about how “time taxes” show up in our lives, and how to make our government more efficient. Listen to Radio Atlantic:
bit.ly
How the Government Wastes Our Time
What do we lose in the hours spent filling out paperwork?
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
On episode 3 of Nobody's In Charge: Lake Ontario is still Lake Ontario. But what CAN a U.S. President do to a shared natural resource? I asked political scientist @vanitaclare.bsky.social open.spotify.com/episode/60LR...
open.spotify.com
It's Lake Ontario, btw
Nobody's In Charge · Episode
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The Volatile Mermaid @ohnoshetwitnt.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
When old SVU episodes don’t hold up in modern times.
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Ross Dahlke @rossdahlke.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
My MA student, Huang, and I find 16% of US adults report using Polymarket. Use is higher among those with lower incomes and less education, but similar across political parties. In both parties, use is correlated with lower civic knowledge and certain anti-democratic attitudes:
Key findings from a survey of U.S. adults about Polymarket. Any use was reported by 15.7%; 11.2% used it a moderate amount or more. Use was higher among Democrats (16.8%) and Republicans (18.0%) than Independents (10.8%); adults under 50 (about 23%) than older adults (6.5–7.0%); and Black (30.4%) and Hispanic respondents (20.1%) than White respondents (11.4%). Use declined as income and education rose and was somewhat higher among men than women. Users had varied demographic profiles. Compared with nonusers, users scored lower on a basic civics question and were more accepting of some forms of political rule-breaking and limits on debate or speech. These patterns generally appeared within each party.
Image description
Six grouped bar charts show self-reported Polymarket use by age, income, gender, education, party, and race and ethnicity. “Any use” was reported by 23.0% of ages 18–29, 23.5% of ages 30–49, 6.5% of ages 50–64, and 7.0% of ages 65-plus. Use declined from 19.9% among households earning under $50,000 to 9.4% among those earning $150,000 or more, and from 19.6% among adults with a high-school education or less to 12.8% among those with a four-year or postgraduate degree. Rates were 17.7% for men and 14.2% for women; 16.8% for Democrats, 10.8% for Independents, and 18.0% for Republicans; and 11.4% for White, 30.4% for Black, and 20.1% for Hispanic respondents.
Image description
Six grouped bar charts show self-reported Polymarket use by age, income, gender, education, party, and race and ethnicity. “Any use” was reported by 23.0% of ages 18–29, 23.5% of ages 30–49, 6.5% of ages 50–64, and 7.0% of ages 65-plus. Use declined from 19.9% among households earning under $50,000 to 9.4% among those earning $150,000 or more, and from 19.6% among adults with a high-school education or less to 12.8% among those with a four-year or postgraduate degree. Rates were 17.7% for men and 14.2% for women; 16.8% for Democrats, 10.8% for Independents, and 18.0% for Republicans; and 11.4% for White, 30.4% for Black, and 20.1% for Hispanic respondents.
Image description
Six grouped bar charts show self-reported Polymarket use by age, income, gender, education, party, and race and ethnicity. “Any use” was reported by 23.0% of ages 18–29, 23.5% of ages 30–49, 6.5% of ages 50–64, and 7.0% of ages 65-plus. Use declined from 19.9% among households earning under $50,000 to 9.4% among those earning $150,000 or more, and from 19.6% among adults with a high-school education or less to 12.8% among those with a four-year or postgraduate degree. Rates were 17.7% for men and 14.2% for women; 16.8% for Democrats, 10.8% for Independents, and 18.0% for Republicans; and 11.4% for White, 30.4% for Black, and 20.1% for Hispanic respondents.
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public health guy @publichealthguy1.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
administrative burden bat signal activate!!! @donmoyn.bsky.social
statnews.com
The Trump administration is burying science and health care in paperwork
This White House has become the paperwork administration, write Brandon Marshall and Abdullah Shihipar.
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Social Media Lab @socialmedialab.ca · 01/09/2026
"Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney hit back at US officials who have blamed their northern counterparts for the trade war, saying tariff talks can proceed when “Americans stop doing memes, stop throwing shade, stop trying to be tough, and start being serious about having those discussions…”"
theguardian.com
‘Start being serious’: Canada’s Carney hits back at US officials as tariff talks stall – live
PM Mark Carney responds to US officials who blame Canada for trade war; Jamieson Greer says trade tension with Canada is ‘more their emergency than ours’
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Episode Two! Re-uploaded for "I'm a one person operation and there was a tiny tech issue" reasons. Recently, a Canada–US trade deal collapsed over French-language labelling rules. To understand why, you need a few decades of context. You can find that context here! open.spotify.com/episode/43S6...
open.spotify.com
Quebec, Explained To Americans
Nobody's In Charge · Episode
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Interesting question re: the lack of a collective political movement. I wonder if more politicians will start using burden reduction strategically given how well Mamdani’s PIT Crew has landed or if things like that will teach voters to spot “admin burden” as its own category worth organizing around.
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John Michael McGrath @jm-mcgrath.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Good morning. Ipsos has restricting energy exports to the US with 2:1 support; an oil & gas export tax at nearly 3:1 support. *In Alberta.* (Table 2.) www.ipsos.com/en-ca/canadi...
ipsos.com
Canadians Support A Robust Response To U.S. Tariffs
Canadians Support COVID-Style Program To Protect Workers
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot @nbeaudrot.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Oddly specific.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
1) Fun fact: Ontario comes from a Haudenosaunee word that means “great lake” or “sparkling waters” 2) Neither country can unilaterally officially change the name 3) “Lake America” isn’t a policy position, it’s just a conformity test. The more incoherent the demand, the purer the loyalty test.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
This is where we are now, I guess. www.ctvnews.ca/ottawa/artic...
ctvnews.ca
Ontario premier says Trump can ‘kiss my ass’ as U.S. president threatens new tariffs on vehicles
Ontario Premier Doug Ford reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to increase tariffs on cars and trucks next year, saying he can “kiss my ass.”
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