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Ash Splawinski

@splawinski.bsky.social
355 followers 170 following 278 posts

PhD candidate in political science @ UofT Researching federalism, policy design, administrative burdens, and political mobilization Previously a visiting scholar at UT Austin & CU Denver Sometimes I podcast. Listen to Nobody’s In Charge on Spotify or Apple

PostsRepliesMedia
Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The feds are fighting. The U.S. + Russia are engaging in influence campaigns in Alberta. This is acknowledged by pretty much everyone. Canada is simultaneously being accused of midterm election interference in the U.S. and is also is being asked to say [thick Canadian accent] soooorry? Huuuuuh?
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Meanwhile: "...when Alberta separatist leaders went to Washington [...] they offered up key assets from the province’s resource portfolio, including access to fresh water and royalties on crude oil, in exchange for help transitioning to independence." www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...
theglobeandmail.com
The elephant in the room
Alberta separatists have gone to D.C. offering fresh water and oil in exchange for American support – and Republican operatives have provided tactical assistance inside the province
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The state of Canada-U.S. relations 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 www.cbc.ca/player/play/...
cbc.ca
Carney laughs at Trump's claim that Canada will apologize to U.S.
Asked by CBC News about U.S. President Donald Trump's comment on Monday that Canada will soon apologize to get a trade deal, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada 'stands ready to negotiate in good f...
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
"The Globe also found that when Alberta separatist leaders went to Washington to meet with the U.S. State Department, they offered up key assets from the province’s resource portfolio, including access to fresh water and royalties on crude oil, in exchange for help transitioning to independence."
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Reviewer one: has potential, needs fixing Reviewer two:
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
"Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro told Canadian lobbyists to 'get the hell out' of the U.S. and warned Canada would 'pay even more dearly' if it interfered in the upcoming midterm elections. Navarro did not explain what he meant by Canadian interference." ...Diplomacy 👍🏽 www.cbc.ca/news/world/t...
cbc.ca
Trump says 'very bad' Canada is being 'taught a little lesson' as trade action escalates | CBC News
U.S. President Donald Trump's war of words with Canada continued Wednesday as he veered off a prepared script at an event marking Hispanic Heritage Month in the States to chastise Canadian leaders for...
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Asawin Suebsaeng @swin24.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Is it?
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
There has been no accountability around DOGE as a project or as a theory of governance. For the first, we need a credible Congressional commission. For the second, explaining why DOGE failed feels like a useful exercise for informing what we should do next. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/a-year-on-...
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
New from me: I unpack what happened at the Jack Smith hearing, and offer a theory of what the hell Senator Eric Schmitt thought he was doing. And yes, an inability to tell the difference between the Hawks and Hawkeyes really did seem to be a big part of it. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-happe...
donmoynihan.substack.com
What happened at the Jack Smith hearing?
A guide for the perplexed. And yes, it does say something about the state of the Republican Party
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
A guide that was as quick as all the memes! Now we can all understand the facts. And the memes!
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Pam Herd @pamherd.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
America.gov launched today--a DOGE initiative to use AI to deliver public services. Child lying facedown on a frozen lake as the image accompanying the question: "How can I invest in my child's future" is just incredible. Way to go AI
Image of a child lying facedown on a froze lake.  above is the portal where you ask AI questions about government services.  the question matching this image is:  "How can I invest in my child's future?"
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Ann Monster Lipton @annmlipton.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
this is at least as responsible for the hostility to AI as anything else: forcing it into every corner of life even when it's just obviously not ready. It could be ready one day! But it isn't now and the people forcing it on us are not the ones who suffer arstechnica.com/health/2026/...
arstechnica.com
Trump admin using AI to deny medical care for seniors in disastrous experiment
Vendors rolling out AI have an "incentive to deny as many claims as possible."
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
this. this is why I log into BlueSky. 🙏🏽
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Ahem. www.politico.com/news/2024/11...
politico.com
US allies repudiate doubts about women in combat
Canada's military chief drew a standing ovation at the Halifax International Security Forum for standing up for women on the front lines.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I know there were several factors at play, but I feel like we can draw a direct line from this ideology to the alleged lack of U.S. support for General Jennie Carignan — a very qualified candidate — who just lost her bid to chair the NATO Military Committee. www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
cbc.ca
Canada's top general loses election to become head of key NATO Military Committee | CBC News
Despite a push from the federal government, Canada's chief of the defence staff has lost a vote to be the next chair of the NATO Military Committee, the alliance's top military authority and a key adv...
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Reuters @reuters.com · 25/09/2026
Trump sees no urgency for Canada deal as trade dispute deepens, USTR says reut.rs/4hoPBuB
reut.rs
Trump sees no urgency for Canada deal as trade dispute deepens, USTR says
President Donald Trump's administration is comfortable maintaining its trade standoff with Canada even as new US import ​bans on Canadian products take effect next week and Washington threatens 50% tariffs ‌on Canadian autos, parts and steel from January, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Friday.
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Larry J. Simon @larryjsimon.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring … and it blossoms in the summer … and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall all alone … just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops." mason.gmu.edu/~rmatz/giama...
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I'm at a very J-pop time in my life.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I'm at whatever stage of dissertation writing this is. Ami Kusakari absolutely killing it on the bass helps. Like, a lot. www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxqY...
youtube.com
サカナクション / 忘れられないの -Music Video-
YouTube video by サカナクション sakanaction
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Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
BREAKING: SCOTUS keeps the Missouri 2022 congressional map in effect for this election in an order that criticizes the Eighth Circuit's actions in the case. The five page, per curiam — unsigned order — came with no noted dissents. More to come at Law Dork: www.lawdork.com
lawdork.com
Law Dork | Chris Geidner | Substack
The Supreme Court, law, politics, and more. Click to read Law Dork, by Chris Geidner, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
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Reuters @reuters.com · 25/09/2026
Polymarket sues New York attorney general to block regulation of its prediction market reut.rs/4d59kOF
reut.rs
Polymarket sues New York attorney general to block regulation of its prediction market
Polymarket sued ​New York ‌Attorney General Letitia James and ​other state ​officials on Thursday ⁠evening, to ​block them from ​regulating its prediction market.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The paper proposes a research agenda organized around the politics of "administratively produced populations" and the deliberate distribution of administrative burden through policy design.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This also has implications for the intersection of federalism and feedback: two donor-conceived people in the same country can face entirely different administrative conditions, and entirely different pathways to political claimsmaking and mobilization, depending solely on where they were conceived.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Donor-conceived adults complicate our understanding of feedback by illustrating an unusual feedback loop. This population, now mobilizing for reform of donor conception, is itself a product of the arrangements it is contesting.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Hey, policy geeks! New paper alert!🚨 My new piece in PSJ argues that donor conception offers a theoretically distinctive site for the study of administrative burden, policy feedback, and the social construction of target populations. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
<em>Policy Studies Journal</em> | PSO Public Policy Journal | Wiley Online Library
Donor-conceived adults are a growing population, mobilizing against the very regulatory arrangements that determined the terms into which they were conceived. In Canada and the United States, where d...
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Actual S.Res.708 text: www.congress.gov/bill/119th-c... My piece on the federalism fight over prediction markets: substack.com/home/post/p-...
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Reminder that S.Res.708 is kinda the only thing Congress (well, the Senate) has done to address prediction markets. And it only stops Senators from trading. How long until the CFTC gets involved and does what they always do - insist this totally isn't gambling and that they have jurisdiction here.
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
My latest @npr.org story: Registered voters are less confident that the U.S. Postal Service will deliver mail-in ballots on time compared to 2024, a NPR / @pbsnews.org / @maristpoll.bsky.social poll finds, after USPS was part of President Trump’s failed bid to limit mail voting for the midterms
npr.org
Poll: Trust in the U.S. Postal Service delivering mail-in ballots on time has fallen
Registered voters are less confident that USPS will deliver election mail on time compared with 2024, an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds, after USPS was part of Trump's bid to limit mail voting.
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Sam Bagenstos @sbagen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
What @mirandayaver.bsky.social said. mirandayaver.substack.com/p/the-medica...
mirandayaver.substack.com
The Medical Debt Crisis is a Policy Choice
A new report by The Commonwealth Fund highlights the widespread extend to which even people with health insurance bear medical debt – and it’s only going get worse with looming premium hikes.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Actual article: www.ajpmonline.org/article/S074...
ajpmonline.org
Emergency Department Visits for Gambling Disorders After the Legalization of Single-Event Sports Betting and Rapid Expansion of Online Gambling
Online gambling and single-event sports betting have been legalized and expanded in North America. Although these changes have raised concerns over increased gambling-related harms, the impacts of gam...
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Right. Yeah. I’m just gonna leave this here. www.cbc.ca/news/health/...
cbc.ca
More people are seeking emergency care for gambling, a new study says — and it's mostly men and boys | CBC News
New research published Wednesday in The American Journal of Preventive Medicine, found a nearly 100 per cent increase in emergency department visits, in just the past few years, following the rapid gr...
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
New from Lauren Supplee at Can We Still Govern? The US government had gradually become better at producing and using evidence. This evidence-based infrastructure is largely invisible, important, and one more thing gutted by Trump. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-system...
donmoynihan.substack.com
The System for Using Evidence to Improve Federal Programs Has Been Gutted
Here’s How We Fix It
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Sad and odd, indeed! 😔
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 19/09/2026
Online gambling companies have collected mass amounts of user data. Former DraftKings employees told The New York Times they used data science techniques to identify gamblers who were more likely to respond to promotional offers by betting — and losing.
nyti.ms
At DraftKings, AI Targets the Gamblers Likeliest to Lose
Data science helps determine who receives betting incentives, but the company has resisted using similar technology to protect gamblers at risk of addiction.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
“The Pentagon’s political leadership really doesn’t seem to have that much interest in senior military leadership being female, so it’s hard to see how that would extrapolate to support for a female four star.”
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
U.S. fixation on masculinity and manhood has consequences beyond U.S. borders, reportedly including who gets to lead NATO. Canada's Gen. Jennie Carignan is in the running, but sources say a lack of U.S. support is working against her. www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
theglobeandmail.com
Canada not counting on win at NATO vote to pick alliance’s new military leader
Apparent lack of U.S. support for country’s top soldier, General Jennie Carignan, may block her path to victory Saturday, sources say
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Interesting contrast: Canada approved its first legal prediction-market app this summer and explicitly banned it from including elections. Meanwhile Polymarket/Kalshi (both American, both geo-restricted in BC) are actively taking bets on who wins Vancouver's mayoral race anyway. Sigh. Cool.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
💀
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Election betting is banned in Canada, by the way. vancouver.citynews.ca/2026/09/17/p...
vancouver.citynews.ca
Over $200K USD already riding on Vancouver election
Vancouver’s mayoral election is exactly one month away, but some big money is already riding on the outcome.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
But then he was told he was wrong. Then right. Then wrong. I swear! That's what actually happened! Learn about partisan redistricting and the role it plays in this year's midterm elections in this 16-minute (audio) explainer here: open.spotify.com/episode/22LB...
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Missouri redrew their map in 2022 and again in 2025. But at the end of 2025, opponents to this new map got enough signatures to freeze it. Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins waited until the DAY of the Missouri primary to say the petition could not be used for congressional redistricting.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Last summer President Trump urged Texas Republicans to engage in partisan gerrymandering. They did. In a totally unprecedented move, California responded stating that they were specifically trying to bypass their independent redistricting commission in order to create more Democrat-leaning seats.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Early voting for the U.S. midterns has begun following an “unprecedented spate of mid-decade redistricting for the U.S. House that began when Trump urged the Republican-controlled legislature in Texas to redraw its congressional map to help the party." 

 www.pbs.org/newshour/pol...
pbs.org
Early voting begins in U.S. midterm elections that could flip control of Congress
In-person voting for this year’s midterm elections began Friday, ushering in the final six weeks for Americans to decide which party they trust to lead Congress through a cost-of-living crisis, a prol...
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Last summer President Trump urged Texas Republicans to engage in partisan gerrymandering. They did. In a totally unprecedented move, California responded stating that they were specifically trying to bypass their independent redistricting commission in order to create more Democrat-leaning seats.
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
1 in 10 people now live in a different congressional district than they did in 2024. That's over 35 million people! www.cbs19news.com/news/the-fig...
cbs19news.com
The fight over congressional maps put nearly 35 million people into new House districts, report says
A new report reveals that mid-decade redistricting for the U.S. House has changed congressional districts for one-tenth of Americans. The report by Protect Democracy shows that about 34.8 million peop...
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Edwin Park @edwincpark.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
My Georgetown CCF colleagues @adamsearing.bsky.social & @joanalker1.bsky.social on how residents of rural communities who rely on #Medicaid are at greater risk of being disenrolled and becoming uninsured due to H.R. 1's work reporting requirements: ccf.georgetown.edu/2026/09/14/r...
ccf.georgetown.edu
Rural Communities at Greater Risk of Harmful Impacts from New Medicaid Work Reporting Requirements
In 2025, Congress passed H.R. 1, legislation which requires work reporting requirements as a condition of Medicaid eligibility in the 41 states, including Washington, D.C., that have expanded coverage...
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Political encroachment in statistical methods for political goals undermines confidence in the entire statistical system. That could hurt funding, response rates, and retention of expert staff, further degrading data quality. Read more at @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
Political meddling at the Census Bureau damages the entire US statistical system
This summer marks the worst period for US statistical integrity since President Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last August. Two different and seemingly uncoordinated eve...
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Ash Splawinski @splawinski.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This episode: upcoming midterms, redistricting as a political tool, and why partisan gerrymandering has become a federalism coordination problem that has become so dang hard to deal with.
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