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Scott Gehlbach

@sgehlbach.bsky.social
3.8K followers 509 following 458 posts

University of Chicago, Political Science and Harris School. Director, PhD Program in Political Economy. Autocracy/Eurasia/HPE. Blogging at scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev. Cards fan but o/w Chicago patriot. 🇺🇦

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Reposted by Scott Gehlbach
Isabelle DeSisto @isadesisto.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Our article with @grigopop.bsky.social and @jacobtucker.bsky.social is now out in @bjpols.bsky.social! This has been a very long journey from the initial draft to publication, so we are very excited 😀 I'll summarize our findings in the next few of posts in the thread.
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
School Math Olympiad in #Kyiv these days, held in a bomb shelter. Russia keeps attacking Ukrainian cities, so these kids solve geometry problems between pipes and ventilation ducts. Every solved problem is a small act of defiance. 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine
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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
How do you really help Putin without saying you are really helping Putin?
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
A highlight of #APSA2026: two panels honoring Henry Brady as scholar, mentor, and friend. Here, my remarks—what I have learned from Henry over the years:
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev
Not Actually Roasting Henry Brady
My comments for "Remembrances, Rants, and Roasts," a panel honoring Henry Brady.
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Reposted by Scott Gehlbach
Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
It’s been great to get back to the theory of autocracy after a little break. Here is a new paper with @luozhaotian.bsky.social and @spantoja.bsky.social. It’s a fun setting: a dynamic agency model in which the agent can try to become the principal (e.g., via a coup). papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
It’s been great to get back to the theory of autocracy after a little break. Here is a new paper with @luozhaotian.bsky.social and @spantoja.bsky.social. It’s a fun setting: a dynamic agency model in which the agent can try to become the principal (e.g., via a coup). papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
A highlight of #APSA2026: two panels honoring Henry Brady as scholar, mentor, and friend. Here, my remarks—what I have learned from Henry over the years:
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev
Not Actually Roasting Henry Brady
My comments for "Remembrances, Rants, and Roasts," a panel honoring Henry Brady.
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Reposted by Scott Gehlbach
APSA @apsa.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
David L. Weimer Receives the 2026 John Gaus Award The John Gaus Award is presented annually by the American Political Science Association (APSA) to honor a lifetime of exemplary scholarship in the joint tradition of… politicalsciencenow.com/david-l-wei…
politicalsciencenow.com
David L. Weimer Receives the 2026 John Gaus Award
The John Gaus Award is presented annually by the American Political Science Association (APSA) to honor a lifetime of exemplary scholarship in the joint tradition of political science and public administration. David L. Weimer will deliver the Gaus Lecture on Friday, September 4, 2026 at 6:30pm ET as part of the APSA Annual Meeting. Citation from the Award Committee:
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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
If you work on Russia, read this. Google Threat Intelligence describes "suspected Russian" espionage groups using new mixes of technical and (sometimes quite sophisticated) social engineering to target academics, analysts and researchers covering Russia. [1/3] cloud.google.com/blog/topics/...
cloud.google.com
Distinct Clusters Target Individuals of Interest to Russia | Google Cloud Blog
Distinct Russian clusters have been conducting phishing activity focused on Application Specific Passwords (ASP), OAuth flows, and malware delivery. All of these operations seem focused on account com...
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Project Syndicate @projectsyndicate.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
JD Vance was right when he said that Watergate would be a 12-hour story today, but not for the reason he thinks, write @bobbygulotty.bsky.social and Zhaotian Luo. bit.ly/3RZY6DP
bit.ly
The Trolling of American Democracy
Robert Gulotty & Zhaotian Luo explain how illiberal politicians weaponize irony, forcing critics to choose between silence and ridicule.
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Adam Przeworski @adamprz.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
A summary of what I understand and do not understand about the way democracy works: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7269378
papers.ssrn.com
<p>Swan Song: My Understanding of Democracy</p>
I summarize my understanding of democracy: the theory which predicts when elections peacefully manage conflicts and the empirical evidence regarding the co
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Our paper on the electoral benefits of Trump's ag payments is out now at the Journal of Public Economics. authors.elsevier.com/c/1nWEVAlwA2... tl;dr - We use the natural experiment from 2019's massive increase in spending to compare 2020 Trump vote in over-compensated vs. under-compensated counties.
The political benefits of the monoculture: Estimating the electoral effect of the market facilitation program

Does the distribution of government transfers affect elections? We analyze a natural experiment in the 2019 wave of the US Department of Agriculture’s Market Facilitation Program (MFP). The 2019 MFP allocated $14.5 billion via a formula combining historical production data and commodity-specific trade damages. We show how a methodological quirk resulted in arbitrary variation in these damages that propagated through the formula into excessive county-level compensation rates. We estimate the effects of this payment shock using a novel, design-based, randomization inference approach to account for complex dependencies across US counties. We find that counties receiving greater compensation rates, on average, have higher two-party Republican presidential vote shares in the 2020 election. Instrumenting for actual 2019 MFP disbursements, we find an additional $1 million in payments to a county increased that county’s 2020 two-party Trump vote share by about .18 percentage points on average. Had the 2019 MFP maintained the spending levels of the 2018 wave, we estimate that Candidate Trump’s two-party vote share would have been .117 percentage points lower nationally, with particularly pronounced effects in swing states like Arizona (.41 percentage points) and Georgia (.159 percentage points).
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Pauline Grosjean @paulinegrosjean.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Congrats to amazing recipients of 2026 SIOE prizes for best book, best thesis, best paper www.sioe.org/news/2026-si...
sioe.org
The 2026 SIOE Awards – SIOE
Angela Zhang wins the Douglass North Best Book Award, Matteo Tranchero the Ronald H. Coase Dissertation Award, and Ngoma, Sievert, Jaravel, Nunn and Weigel the Oliver E.…
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Organ intro at Music Box in Chicago as we prepare to watch The Odyssey on 70mm with 700 other aficionados.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Bravo! Excellent conference and great gala to close it out. Here, @ksonin.bsky.social staging Napoleon’s surrender to Kutuzov (in fact, Napoleon surrendered to Wellington, which Kostya knows full well).
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Your regular reminder that market economies are archipelagos of central planning.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Fantastic conference on “The Soviet Legacy” at UCLouvain next January. Cfp here: www.uclouvain.be/en/research-...
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
“From a political perspective…we should have serious concerns about a sweeping elimination of moral-hazard rents from large political and economic organizations.”
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Folks, here’s the program for the 2026 Summer Workshop in the Economic History and Historical Political Economy of Eurasia, to be held July 17–18 at the University of Chicago Center in Paris. So looking forward.
scottgehlbach.net
Scott Gehlbach - 2026 Summer Workshop in the Economic History and
Schedule All sessions will be held at the University of Chicago Center in Paris. Friday, July 17 8:45–9:00 Opening remarks 9:00–10:00 Kristy Ironsi...
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Iowa City on the Fourth. “Cities may be large without being urbane, as when segregation discourages mixing outside of one’s narrowly defined group. And communities may be urbane yet still small, as with the quintessential college town.” scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev/urbanity-her...
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
The Obama Center is more than a museum. For many Chicagoans, it is first and foremost a major investment in the South Side. A few thoughts and photos after visiting this afternoon.
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev
The South Side of Chicago Is the Nicest Part of Town
The Obama Presidential Center is a world-class investment in Chicago's South Side.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
The Obama Center is more than a museum. For many Chicagoans, it is first and foremost a major investment in the South Side. A few thoughts and photos after visiting this afternoon.
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev
The South Side of Chicago Is the Nicest Part of Town
The Obama Presidential Center is a world-class investment in Chicago's South Side.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
They say that Chicago is where fun goes to die, but I can’t imagine a crowd here on a Sunday afternoon like the one that Tianguang Meng assembled last week at Tsinghua University. Thanks for the audience—and for PhD Panda!
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Not there, but this sounds great!
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Dr. Alexandra “Ali” Cirone @alicirone.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Had an excellent time at the UChicago-Beijing Political Economy of Governance Conference, at the UChicago Global Center in Beijing! Top notch papers and amazing hospitality. Huge thanks to Zhaotian Luo, Scott Gehlbach, and Tianguang Meng for hosting!
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Group photo on Day 2 of the UChicago-Beijing Political Economy of Governance Conference.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Congratulations to Giorgio Farace and Lingnan He, now PhD alumni of the University of Chicago!
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Day 1 of the UChicago-Beijing Political Economy of Governance Conference kicks off with two of our most prominent democracy scholars: Carles Boix and Adam Przeworski.
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Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 04/06/2026
Alexey Navalny would have turned 50 today.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Celebrating my birthday in Singapore, having just spent the day discussing Zeren Li’s book manuscript on business-state relations in China.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Congratulations to Giorgio Farace, who just defended his dissertation in political economy (Poli Sci + Harris) here at Chicago. Next stop: a faculty position at Stanford GSB. Not pictured but on Giorgio’s committee: Konstantin Sonin. You can read more about Giorgio here: www.giorgiofarace.com.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Apropos:
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev
On arXiv, LLMs, and What It Means to Put Your Name on a Paper
All you have is your name.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
Either arXiv’s new policy on LLM-generated text changes nothing, or you should be asking yourself some hard questions about work with your human coauthors.
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev
On arXiv, LLMs, and What It Means to Put Your Name on a Paper
All you have is your name.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
Either arXiv’s new policy on LLM-generated text changes nothing, or you should be asking yourself some hard questions about work with your human coauthors.
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev
On arXiv, LLMs, and What It Means to Put Your Name on a Paper
All you have is your name.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
A+ post.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
For all but the dogmatically pro-terminal, this is a fantastic interface for Claude Code (or whatever). So many nice touches. agents.craft.do
agents.craft.do
Craft Agents - The Open Source Agent Interface
An open source desktop app for working with AI agents. Connect any API or MCP server. Multitask naturally. Make it yours.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
The Anti-Corruption Foundation highlights Maria Pevchik’s April visit to Chicago in their monthly update. It was a highlight for us as well!
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Life in the city.
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Austin Carson @carsonaust.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
New article: Harrison Ford’s Indiana Jones meets James Scott’s legibility It’s actually about how states tapped archaeologists for early intelligence capabilities Check it out! “History, archeology, and espionage as improvised legibility” in @ejir.bsky.social coauthored with @asaxton.bsky.social
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Gillian Hadfield @ghadfield.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
1/ Something I’ve been working toward for a long time. Virginia just signed the first state legislation directing a formal study of Independent Verification Organizations for AI. Bipartisan votes of 84-14 in the House, unanimous 40-0 in the Senate.
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Sascha O. Becker @essobecker.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Stata code to implement the MW2024 methods 👉 pauldavidboll.com/research/pub... and a forthcoming Stata Journal article with a practitioners guide (with @pdavidboll.bsky.social and @jvoth.bsky.social)
pauldavidboll.com
Testing and Correcting for Spatial Unit Roots in Regression Analysis
empty
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Anjali Adukia @aadukia.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Submit your work using AI in the social sciences to the annual AI in Social Science conference at the University of Chicago! Submissions due May 1! The conference will be held October 8-9 in Chicago, IL, USA. bfi.uchicago.edu/events/event... @beckerfriedman.bsky.social @caai-booth.bsky.social
Call for papers for the 2026 AI in social science conference: submit by May 1. Conference will be held October 8-9, 2026 at the University of Chicago
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Authoritarian Political Systems Group @apsgworkshop.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Join us next week!! On April 21, @nvasilenok.bsky.social (Stanford) will present her work "Reading Orwell in Moscow" @sgehlbach.bsky.social (Chicago) and @eugenian.bsky.social (@liverpooluni.bsky.social) will discuss.
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Grigore Pop-Eleches @grigopop.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
My 2 cents @goodauth.bsky.social on Orban's loss in the Hungarian elections based on survey data from last week. goodauthority.org/news/the-end...
goodauthority.org
The end of Viktor Orbán’s ‘Hungarian model’?
New data show why Orbán’s Fidesz party finally fell after 16 years in power.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
So happy for the people of Hungary, whom I remember from my year in Budapest in the 90s as warm and generous, and who are now victorious.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
A few reflections on opposition to tyranny and the resilience of hope—apropos of a discussion earlier this week with Maria Pevchikh, chief investigator of the organization that Alexei Navalny founded.
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev
The Demand for Hope Is Inelastic
A conversation with Maria Pevchikh, an avatar of hope
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
A few reflections on opposition to tyranny and the resilience of hope—apropos of a discussion earlier this week with Maria Pevchikh, chief investigator of the organization that Alexei Navalny founded.
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev
The Demand for Hope Is Inelastic
A conversation with Maria Pevchikh, an avatar of hope
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Wednesday we hosted Maria Pevchikh, chief investigator of the organization that Alexei Navalny founded. It was a very special event. A few thoughts.
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev
The Demand for Hope Is Inelastic
A conversation with Maria Pevchikh, an avatar of hope
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Event yesterday with the great Maria Pevchikh, chief investigator for the organization that Alexei Navalny founded. If you have seen the Navalny documentary, you will remember her reaction when Navalny’s poisoner confesses to his role in the plot.
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Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Torn between spending Sunday afternoon with Reinhold Niebuhr (pastor of my hometown church) or Levitsky and Way (grad-school colleagues).
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