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Setu

@setupelz.bsky.social
1.1K followers 2K following 75 posts

Equitable energy transitions, regions of the global South and vulnerable communities globally.

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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The cost gap would reduce if you imagine capture costs to fall faster, but the rate at which this channel (alone) could address carbon debt this century is a function of scale-up (already steep here) and injection rate limits (conservative here, reaching / holding at 6Gt). Paper on this out soon..
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Finally, the allocation approaches shown are illustrative (!!!important) many more can be considered. The SI explains our choices and sets out the full mathematical formulations (hard to find, worth reading: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...). @iiasa.ac.at coverage here: bsky.app/profile/iias...
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
.. and you can explore results across regions and approaches for yourself. Check out all scenarios, more indicators and the CMIP7 comparison here: setupelz.com/faircoop
setupelz.com
Equitable cooperation deepens the solution space for high ambition pathways: explorer
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Our main cost-effective source scenario is close to, though not the same as, the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 Low marker from the same model family. The interactive scenario explorer places them side by side. In Western Europe, e.g. every lowest-feasible variant phases out gas and oil faster..
Screenshot of the paper's online explorer for Western Europe under a 2 °C budget: coal, oil and gas supply from 2020 to 2100, in EJ per year. Four fair-share variants at lowest-feasible transfers (ECPC 2015, CAPC 1990, CAPC 2015 and ECPC 1990, blue lines) are compared with the cost-effective source pathway (thick black line) and the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 Low marker from the same model family (dotted teal line). Coal falls to near zero by about 2050 in all pathways. The fair-share variants phase out oil and especially gas faster than both the source pathway and the CMIP7 Low marker.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Broadly, the work argues for moving past the stale equity versus ambition gridlock, to how equity enables ambition. A 'gross emissions reductions first' strategy among higher-responsibility regions generates system-wide benefits and releases pressure on others to collectively meet climate goals.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
..even when cooperation is restricted to financing novel CDR with geological storage, we see roughly two-thirds of higher-responsibility regions' carbon debt is avoided through gross emission cuts. Each tonne via CDR+geo costs roughly ten times what it would through direct mitigation (excl. LULUCF).
Figure 4a and 4b from the paper, ECPC 2015 case under a 2 °C budget. a: cumulative change from the source scenario in net CO2, gross CO2, BECCS and DACCS for the World, higher-responsibility and lower-responsibility regions, comparing cooperation through transfers for any mitigation with transfers restricted to carbon removal. Restricting cooperation to removal deepens gross emission cuts in higher-responsibility regions. b: stacked bars showing how the higher-responsibility regions' carbon debt is cleared, by cooperation scope (all mitigation or removal only) and transfer level (unlimited or lowest-feasible). With transfers for any mitigation, transfers cover most of it; with transfers restricted to removal, roughly two-thirds is met by domestic emission reductions.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Other fair share studies also often split the problem in two: separating fairness in reductions from CDR. We show this dichotomy can be misleading. The cost-effective response to carbon debt is to avoid accruing it through immediate gross emission cuts, not to scale up removal later in the century..
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Globally, collective fossil exit accelerates: in 2040, fossil energy falls 3-21% below the cost-effective source scenario. At the same time global consumption losses rise somewhat, though these are progressively distributed - lower-responsibility regions gain relative to the cost-effective pathway.
Figure 3a and 3b from the paper, 2 °C budget. a: cumulative change in consumption from 2026 to 2100 against a no-new-policy scenario (percent, net present value) for each fair-share allocation approach, shown for the World, higher-responsibility and lower-responsibility regions, with the cost-effective source scenario as crosses. World changes stay around one percent; lower-responsibility regions gain under the fair-share variants while higher-responsibility regions lose. b: the trade-off for higher-responsibility regions between additional domestic CO2 cuts relative to the source scenario and interregional transfers. Each line runs from unlimited transfers (up to about 40 trillion USD, no extra domestic cuts) to lowest-feasible transfers (a few trillion USD, with up to about 270 Gt CO2 of extra domestic cuts).
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Holding finance to the lowest feasible (read: model feasibility) level redistributes implementation effort. Higher-responsibility regions reduce gross emissions faster, lower-responsibility regions gain room for a more gradual transition, and the global outcome holds (!!!! this is important).
Figure 2a from the paper: line charts of net CO2 (top row) and gross CO2 (bottom row) from 2030 to 2100, as percentage change from 2020, for the World, higher-responsibility regions and lower-responsibility regions. Coloured lines are six fair-share allocation approaches (ECPC and CAPC, with 1990, 2015 and 2025 start years, plus a delayed-cooperation case) at lowest-feasible transfers; the black line is the cost-effective source scenario, under a 2 °C budget (SSP2). At World level the lines almost overlap. Higher-responsibility regions reduce emissions faster than in the source scenario, and lower-responsibility regions reduce them more gradually.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Interregional cooperation is the central element. Regions meet their fair share at home or by financing mitigation elsewhere. Two variants bound the space: 'unlimited transfers' and a new 'lowest-feasible transfers' variant, the least interregional finance with which the model still solves.
Figure 1b from the paper: two schematic charts of the solution space. Top: global mitigation cost plotted against how effort is distributed between regions. The source scenario and the 'unlimited transfers' variant sit at the least-cost end; the 'lowest-feasible transfers' variant sits at the higher-cost end. Bottom: cumulative CO2 emissions over time. Unlimited transfers follow the same trajectory as the source scenario, while lowest-feasible transfers take a different path to the same end-of-century cumulative emissions.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
..so, we developed an approach to integrate principle-based fair shares directly into the IAM scenario generation process. The global climate outcome of the cost-effective scenario is preserved, while its regional implementation is redistributed. The framework can be applied to *any* scenario.
Figure 1a from the paper: a diagram of how fair-share variants are derived from an existing mitigation pathway in four steps. 1) Assess the source scenario's emissions. 2) Allocate each region an emissions budget under a fairness principle; emissions above that allocation are the region's carbon debt. 3) Set cooperation mechanisms, so the debt is met through interregional transfers or additional domestic effort. 4) Solve the fair-share variant. A flow chart below shows covered emissions passing through regional allocations and a cooperation mechanism into new pathways, while excluded emissions follow the source scenario's carbon price.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Cost-effective mitigation scenarios place effort wherever it is cheapest. Fairness is then assessed after the fact, often as a financial obligation, leaving the physical pathway unchanged. Many contest what this implies for who does what, and are confused about what this means for global outcomes..
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Two years plus in the making... our paper building fair effort sharing directly into how integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios are generated is out in Environmental Research Letters🧵 @iopp-environment.bsky.social @iiasa.ac.at doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aea34d
First page of the article 'Equitable cooperation deepens the solution space for high ambition pathways' by Setu Pelz and eleven co-authors, published open access in Environmental Research Letters 21 (2026) 184019 on 18 September 2026. The page shows the author list, affiliations and the abstract.
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IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · 22/09/2026
⚖️ New IIASA-led research shows that integrating fairness into climate models can change how the global mitigation effort is shared across regions while still achieving the same climate goal. The findings offer new insights for translating global ambition into action. 👉 iiasa.ac.at/news/sep-202...
iiasa.ac.at
Fairness informs how the world cuts emissions
Who cuts emissions fastest, and who supports others do so, are central questions in global climate action. New IIASA-led research shows that building fairness into climate models from the start can in...
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
The Bandcamp app has gotten really great. Fun to rediscover the joy of collecting albums, slowly, again. dddriftingcloudsss.bandcamp.com/album/bawuyp...
dddriftingcloudsss.bandcamp.com
Bawuypawuy - Original Mix/Extended Dub, by Drifting Clouds
2 track album
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chriswells95.bsky.social @chriswells95.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
New paper today in GMD describing the Sea Level Rise module in the process-based FRIDA IAM, to examine the role of SLR impacts and adaptation in future scenarios. Also given as a standalone SLR model named FRISIA! Huge shoutout to Lennart Ramme for leading this gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
Good decision :) I'm half way through. Gratuitous descriptions of tipping elements await.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
Call for abstracts - EGU 2026 session ITS3.6/ERE6.5 on justice and social science and humanities (SSH) integration in climate modelling. We invite work linking SSH and IAMs on justice, labour, needs, power, governance and Global South perspectives. Submit (by 15 Jan 2026) www.egu26.eu/session/57677
Call for abstracts - EGU 2026 session ITS3.6/ERE6.5 on justice and social science and humanities (SSH) integration in climate modelling. We invite work linking SSH and IAMs on justice, labour, needs, power, governance and Global South perspectives. Submit (by 15 Jan 2026) via https://www.egu26.eu/session/57677
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Prof Julia Steinberger 🌹🌱🌍 #ClimateAction #Fightfascism @jksteinberger.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
"One of the workshop’s shared diagnoses was that the climate movement must broaden its struggle beyond carbon. This means organising around people’s material realities while confronting the elites and corporations driving destruction." theecologist.org/2025/nov/12/...
theecologist.org
A brainwave in the heatwave?
Engaged academics and high-level strategists from the climate movement met to discuss movement strategy during a European heatwave last June. They released their summary report today.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Do climate conferences actually achieve anything? A lot of people have strong opinions, but we wanted measurements, so we look at how the stock market moves during yearly international meetings called COPs – explanation below, or read the paper here: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
Radware Bot Manager Captcha
To ensure we keep this website safe, please can you confirm you are a human by ticking the box below.
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Chris Bataille @chrisbataille.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
ICTP has issued a call for IPCC AR7 Chapter Scientists, with funding for developing country candidates from Wellcome. Kumaran Kadirgama and I will be serving as CLAs for the WGIII Industry chapter, and we would welcome good candidates. Deadline Oct 18 @ipcc.bsky.social www.ictp.it/opportunity/...
ictp.it
IPCC AR7 Chapter Scientists | ICTP
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is in the process of preparing its Seventh Assessment report (AR7). The IPCC Working Groups are seeking highly motivated early-career researchers f...
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 21/09/2025
The status quo here in Australia. Sadly.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 13/09/2025
Going backwards down a slippery slope - "To attempt to win over sceptical countries, diplomats are discussing options including covering a bigger share of the target with carbon credits..." www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
reuters.com
EU countries delay deal on new climate goal, diplomats say
European Union countries have shelved plans to approve a new climate change target next week, after pushback from governments including France and Germany over plans to quickly land a deal, three EU diplomats told Reuters on Friday.
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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
Our finalised paper on flat10MIP is finally up in GMD! This is the experimental protocol which allows for a simple, emissions-driven evaluation of TCRE, ZEC and climate reversibility in CMIP7. Thanks so much to all who ran these simulations as a proof of concept! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
gmd.copernicus.org
flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions
Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from ...
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Matthew Gidden @gidden.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
Our paper is out today in @nature.com where we assess a Prudent Planetary Limit for Geologic Carbon Storage: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage - Nature
A risk-based, spatially explicit analysis of carbon storage in sedimentary basins establishes a prudent planetary limit of around 1,460 Gt of geological carbon storage, which requires making explicit ...
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
In a new piece for @granthamicl.bsky.social, @frediotto.bsky.social and I unpack the significance of the ICJ’s landmark advisory opinion. We reflect on how it reshapes the legal framing of climate action and what it means for states’ obligations going forward.
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Emily Theokritoff @etheokritoff.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Heat kills, more than we think and we can see. Heat intensified by climate change kills even more. For the 1st time, we conducted a rapid impact attribution study looking at the additional deaths that occurred due to climate change across 12 cities in Europe, in close to real-time: shorturl.at/mv6ms
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Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
*** Faktencheck*** In der Generaldebatte im Bundestag sprach Bundeskanzler Friedrich #Merz auch zum Klimaschutz. Er sagte: "Selbst wenn wir alle morgen klimaneutral wären, würde keine einzige Naturkatastrophe weniger geschehen". Ein Faktencheck. 1/
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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 26/06/2025
Including a climate module and climate damages within a process-based integrated assessment model: meet FRIDA. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
egusphere.copernicus.org
Introducing FRIDA v2.1: A feedback-based, fully coupled, global integrated assessment model of climate and humans
Abstract. The current crop of models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce their assessment reports lack endogenous process-based representations of climate-drive...
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Thomas Piketty @thomaspiketty.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Colonial extraction and unequal exchange have shaped two centuries of North-South inequality. A thread on the new study written with @gatonievas.bsky.social [A thread 1/8🧵]
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IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · 03/06/2025
Call for abstracts – now open! As the world edges closer to surpassing the 1.5°C global warming threshold, it's time to confront the risks of climate overshoot. Join leading scientists at the first-ever Overshoot Conference, hosted by IIASA. iiasa.ac.at/events/sep-2... @carlschleussner.bsky.social
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
Institutional frameworks and electrification planning models will need to evolve beyond the rural-urban binary to keep pace with these urbanization dynamics. Check out the paper for more detail (open access) here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
A geospatial perspective on electrification strategy in urbanizing Africa
Efforts to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7, to ensure modern energy for all, have largely followed models of rural electrification premis…
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
Our analysis identifies critical regions where this ‘gap’ is most acute, notably coastal West Africa, Ethiopian highlands, and the Great Lakes region encompassing Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and the DRC.
A figure describing unelectrified populations by Urban-Rural Catchment Area (URCA) categories. The x-axis is ordinal, describing the URCA categories from within the urban core to the hinterlands. The y-axis is the percent of total unelectrified. The points are coloured by focus countries, with all others left as grey. The size of the points reflect the absolute unelectrified population. We can see the majority of the unelectrified population is found in categories that reflect at most 1 hour travel time to medium- and large cities.Choropleth maps of the DRC and Ethiopia, describing the unelectrified population (people / square km) and highlighting major cities.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
Institutional responsibilities and regulatory frameworks also often remain rigidly divided between rural electrification agencies and urban governance bodies. This rigidity creates jurisdictional gaps, potentially leaving large peri-urban and newly urbanizing areas underserved.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
Least-cost electrification planning models typically rely on binary rural/urban delineation for demand estimation and sometimes for supply decisions. Such assumptions significantly influence technology choice, potentially misallocating resources by failing to capture emerging urbanization dynamics.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
We find that 62% of the unelectrified population lives within or near expanding urban areas, especially in peri-urban zones surrounding smaller and medium-sized cities. This questions the notion of the majority ‘rural unelectrified’ and the binary urban-rural delineation in electrification efforts.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
We combine the Urban Rural Catchment Area (URCA) framework with satellite derived spatial electrification datasets to highlight spatial patterns in electricity access gaps.
A figure describing the workflow from data preprocessing of various spatial datasets to their combination identifying the unelectrified by URCA category across all countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
Urbanization trends are reshaping human settlement patterns and energy needs. Our recent (open access) work, led by Jessica Kersey and Samuel Miles, explores these dynamics across countries in Sub-Saharan Africa 🧵
A map of Sub-Saharan Africa, visualising the unelectrified population using circles sized by population (1000 people / 20 km) and coloured by electrification rate. The inset plots show the Gulf of Guinea, the Ethiopian Highlands and the African Great Lakes region.A image of the title page.
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 19/05/2025
Our recent @nature.com study highlights disproportionate climate risk to children worldwide. This is the first outcome of the @erc.europa.eu Consolidator Grant "LAgrangian Climate Risk and IMpact Attribution" (LACRIMA). A big thanks to the ERC for the support. erc.europa.eu/news-events/...
erc.europa.eu
Study highlights disproportionate climate risk to children worldwide
A new study has found that children born today are likely to experience significantly more exposure to extreme climate events over their lifetime than previous generations - unless global greenhouse g...
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 12/05/2025
Will you live an unprecedented life? In our new paper in @nature.com and accompanying @savethechildren.org report, we detect who will face unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes (🧵) 1/n Report: resourcecentre.savethechildren.net/document/bor... Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
resourcecentre.savethechildren.net
Born into the Climate Crisis 2. An unprecedented life: Protecting children’s rights in a changing climate | Save the Children’s Resource Centre
The climate crisis is not a distant threat; it is a pressing reality that children are facing today. Despite having contributed the least to the climate crisis, the inherent intergenerational injustic...
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
"... [the] 1% and 0.1%, whose transboundary contributions to worsening local extremes arise primarily through investments, rather than consumption... ... [efforts] should also consider the shared responsibilities of governments to expedite systemic changes in financial and regulatory structures"
nature.com
High-income groups disproportionately contribute to climate extremes worldwide - Nature Climate Change
While climate injustice is widely recognized, a quantification of how emissions inequality translates into unequal accountability is still lacking. Here researchers examine how affluent groups disprop...
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
Runaway inequalities are a fundamental challenge to meeting climate ambition. In a new study, we trace transboundary harms attributable to high wealth individuals worldwide - 🧵 by lead author @sarahschoengart.bsky.social 👇
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IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · 07/05/2025
🌎 The wealthiest 10% of the global population have been responsible for two-thirds of global warming since 1990, according to new research published in Nature Climate Change. Read more 🔗 iiasa.ac.at/news/may-202... @carlschleussner.bsky.social @ethzurich.bsky.social
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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 07/05/2025
NEW – Two-thirds of global warming since 1990 caused by world’s ‘wealthiest 10%’ ✍️ by @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org 💬 with comment from Sarah Schöngart @carlschleussner.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social @wimthiery.bsky.social Read here ➡️ buff.ly/0Se78bM
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Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Very excited to announce that the call for abstracts for our @iiasa.ac.at overshoot conference is out. Join us to explore the eightfold path to manage climate risks of an overshoot world: overshootconference.org Abstract deadline: June 27.
overshootconference.org
Overshoot |
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 28/04/2025
In our new paper in @natcomms.nature.com led by Yuanlin Qiu, we identify an amplified increase in heat release from lakes, particularly in mid to high latitudes. Another sign of how lakes worldwide are affected by climate changes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Enhanced heating effect of lakes under global warming - Nature Communications
Mid-high latitude lakes exhibit amplified heat release to the atmosphere due to an ice-loss feedback, revealing distinct responses to global warming between lakes in colder and warmer regions.
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
I've put together a webpage with country-level charts that @glenpeters.bsky.social and I produce. Currently 89 countries, not all with same charts. More to come, including data downloads. Explore for yourself here: robbieandrew.github.io/country/
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Climate Tracker @climate.skyfleet.blue · 18/04/2025
Climate change is not just a problem of physics but a crisis of justice #Climate
theguardian.com
Climate change is not just a problem of physics but a crisis of justice
In an exclusive extract from Friederike Otto’s new book, she says climate disasters result from inequality as well as fossil fuel
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IIASA @iiasa.ac.at · 15/04/2025
🌡️ Why is modeling heat waves important? 🔥 In this podcast, IIASA researcher @kornhuber.bsky.social breaks down the science behind modeling extreme heat waves, and why it's an important tool for protecting communities and shaping smarter policies. 🎧 open.spotify.com/episode/6TIQ...
open.spotify.com
Modeling extreme heat waves
PNAS Science Sessions · Episode
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Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
Overshoot: A Conceptual Review of Exceeding and Returning to Global Warming of 1.5°C. Once we exceed 1.5°C, is it all lost? Can we get back to it from above? What risks would that avoid, and which ones not? Great collaboration with a range of IPCC authors! www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
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