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Sam Winter-Levy

@samwl.bsky.social
789 followers 689 following 73 posts

Fellow @CarnegieEndow, Technology + International Affairs. Previously poli sci PhD @ Princeton, @ForeignAffairs, @TheEconomist.

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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
On the @cleaninguppod.bsky.social with James Cameron and Afonso Salema to talk about the geopolitics of AI infrastructure, Europe’s AI gap, and how middle powers can avoid becoming dangerously dependent on the US: www.cleaningup.live/the-race-is-...
cleaningup.live
The Race Is On To Control AI | Episode 274: Afonso Salema & Sam …
More than 80% of the world’s advanced AI compute is concentrated in the US and China. For Europe and other middle powers, the question may no longer be how to win t…
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Just Security @justsecurity.org · 07/08/2026
The Trump administration's recent decision to relax export controls on the UAE occurred with little public notice but could have significant implications for US AI policy, write Andrew Leber, Alasdair Phillips-Robins, and @samwl.bsky.social (Sam Winter-Levy).
justsecurity.org
The Trump Administration Throws Gulf AI a Lifeline
The Trump administration significantly relaxed AI export controls on the UAE, and it's unclear what the United States got in return.
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Just Security @justsecurity.org · 07/08/2026
The Trump administration's recent decision to relax export controls on the UAE occurred with little public notice but could have significant implications for US AI policy, write Andrew Leber, Alasdair Phillips-Robins, and @samwl.bsky.social (Sam Winter-Levy).
justsecurity.org
The Trump Administration Throws Gulf AI a Lifeline
The Trump administration significantly relaxed AI export controls on the UAE, and it's unclear what the United States got in return.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
My latest, with Alasdair Phillips-Robins, on how the Trump administration promised Gulf AI deals it couldn’t deliver, started a war that destroyed the economic case for the original bargain, then gave away all its leverage to compensate for the damage.
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Just Security @justsecurity.org · 11/06/2026
On its current trajectory, the #AI Exports Program risks failing to serve both U.S. industry and foreign partners, write @samwl.bsky.social (Sam Winter-Levy) and Teddy Tawil. Here's how the administration can fix it:
justsecurity.org
It’s Not too Late to Fix the AI Exports Program
The administration must treat the program as economic statecraft rather than a vehicle for green-lighting deals industry would pursue anyway.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
For the @washingtonpost.com, Anton Leicht and I wrote about how middle powers need to get smart about AI competition.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
In @foreignaffairs.com, Anton Leicht and I wrote about how middle powers should navigate an AI revolution that threatens to leave them behind: www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
foreignaffairs.com
The AI Divide
How U.S.-Chinese competition could leave most countries behind.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
In @foreignaffairs.com, Anton Leicht and I wrote about how middle powers should navigate an AI revolution that threatens to leave them behind: www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
foreignaffairs.com
The AI Divide
How U.S.-Chinese competition could leave most countries behind.
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 21/08/2025
Today's Lawfare Daily is a Scaling Laws ep, with @utexaslaw.bsky.social, where @alanrozenshtein.com spoke to @samwl.bsky.social, Janet Egan & @petereharrell.bsky.social about the Trump admin’s decision to allow Nvidia and AMD to export AI semiconductors to China for a 15% payment to the U.S. govt.
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 20/08/2025
Read @samwl.bsky.social and Nikita Lalwani on how AI advances could undermine nuclear deterrence—and “encourage mistrust and dangerous actions among nuclear-armed states”:
foreignaffairs.com
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
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John Carl Baker @johncarlbaker.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
Appreciated this balanced look at the impact of quote-unquote AI on nuclear deterrence - more of this, please. Does AI present new nuclear risks? Yes. Are there hard limits to AI's capabilities? Also yes. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
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Christian Thiels @christianthiels.eurosky.social · 08/08/2025
"So long as systems of nuclear deterrence remain in place, the economic and military advantages produced by AI will not allow states to fully impose their political preferences on one another. " @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
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Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
Fascinating read. So many things combined in this article: deterrence theory, nuclear doctrines, AI development. Not cheerful but insightful. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
In @foreignaffairs.com, Nikita Lalwani and I write about the idea that winning the AI race will give one state unchallenged global dominance. To do so, we argue, it would have to undercut nuclear deterrence—no small feat. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 28/07/2025
The Trump administration’s AI Action Plan and accompanying executive orders are friendly to companies and hostile to “woke AI.” But these policies’ effects will depend on their implementation, writes @samwl.bsky.social in @justsecurity.org: www.justsecurity.org/117765/asses...
justsecurity.org
Assessing the Trump Administration’s AI Action Plan
Unpacking the Trump administration's AI Action Plan — what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next.
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Just Security @justsecurity.org · 25/07/2025
The Trump administration has unveiled its most ambitious AI strategy to date, with the goal of achieving “unquestioned and unchallenged” global dominance in AI. @samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpacks the AI Action Plan - what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next. #AIActionPlan
justsecurity.org
Assessing the Trump Administration’s AI Action Plan
Unpacking the Trump administration's AI Action Plan — what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next.
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Just Security @justsecurity.org · 24/07/2025
The Trump administration has released its long-awaited #AI Action Plan. Leading experts Josh Geltzer, Jennifer Marron, @briannarosen.bsky.social, and @samwl.bsky.social unpack the plan, its implications, and what lies ahead. www.justsecurity.org/117752/just-...
justsecurity.org
The Just Security Podcast: Decoding Trump’s AI Playbook: The AI Action Plan and What Comes Next
Joshua Geltzer, Jenny Marron and Sam Winter-Levy join Brianna Rosen on the show to discuss the Trump administration's U.S. AI Action Plan.
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 23/07/2025
Beijing has claimed last week’s trade deal with Nvidia as a win for China. Is it actually? Probably, write @samwl.bsky.social‬ and Alasdair Phillips-Robins in @foreignpolicy.com: the U.S. should tighten its AI export controls, not undercut them. Full article: foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/22/n...
foreignpolicy.com
The Nvidia Chip Deal Trades Away the United States’ AI Advantage
Right when the Trump administration should be ramping up export controls, its trade strategy is undermining them.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
In @foreignpolicy.com, Alasdair Phillips-Robins and I wrote about the Trump administration’s mismanagement of export control policy. In its desperation to reach a deal in its trade war with China, the administration has hamstrung its ability to impose new chip restrictions:
foreignpolicy.com
The Nvidia Chip Deal Trades Away the United States’ AI Advantage
Right when the Trump administration should be ramping up export controls, its trade strategy is undermining them.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Trump's Gulf datacenter plan will put a key node of the world’s AI infrastructure in locations highly vulnerable to drone attack. Yet despite these obvious risks, physical security has barely registered in the public debate. That needs to change. My latest, in @washingtonpost.com: wapo.st/46SQXKe
wapo.st
Opinion | The gulf is not the place to build the world’s AI infrastructure
Drone threats make the UAE and Saudi Arabia the wrong homes for critical AI data centers.
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 04/06/2025
What exactly do the AI deals that President Trump made on his Gulf trip entail? And what’s next for AI policy in the U.S., the Gulf, and the world? @samwl.bsky.social and Alasdair Phillips-Robins explained for @justsecurity.org:
buff.ly
What Comes Next After Trump’s AI Deals in the Gulf
Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the AI race.
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Just Security @justsecurity.org · 04/06/2025
Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the #Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the #AI race. Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpack what comes next. www.justsecurity.org/113944/what-...
justsecurity.org
What Comes Next After Trump’s AI Deals in the Gulf
Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the AI race.
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 19/05/2025
AI deals were a major focus of President Trump’s trip to the Middle East last week. But what should we make of these deals? Do they open the U.S. up to economic opportunities, or security risks? Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social on how to tell: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
How to Gauge Whether Trump’s AI Chip Deals With Gulf Countries Are Any Good
Several key factors will hint at whether Trump used the United States’ considerable leverage around AI to minimize risk.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
Great @nytimes.com reporting from @anaswanson.bsky.social, ft some closing comments from me on the tensions between an America First AI policy and the decision to offshore the world's most powerful AI facilities to the UAE:
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
Shared some more skeptical reactions to Trump's Gulf AI deals with @washingtonpost.com: www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Shared a couple of thoughts with @anaswanson.bsky.social for the @nytimes.com on the risks of letting the Gulf amass giant concentrations of cutting-edge AI chips: www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b...
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Some thoughts from me in the @washingtonpost.com on what's shaping up to be a bad AI deal with the Gulf: washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
1/ The Trump admin may be about to greenlight the export of advanced AI chips to the Gulf. If it does so, it will place the most important technology of the 21st C at the whims of autocrats with expanding ties to China and interests very far from those of the US.
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Sinan Ulgen @sinanulgen.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
My conversation with @samwl.bsky.social moderated by @rmomtaz.bsky.social on how AI is re- shaping the world order. @carnegieeurope.bsky.social @carnegieendowment.org. Part of the europe-inside-out podcast. europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/how...
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com
How AI Is Reshaping the Global Order | Europe Inside Out
Rym Momtaz, Sinan Ülgen, and Sam Winter-Levy examine how artificial intelligence is reshaping international politics and will define the future of the tech industry.
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Paul Staniland @pstaniland.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Some thoughts on DOGE/the Trump administration's destruction of USIP, the Wilson Center, and home-grown social science/area studies expertise about the rest of the world: paulstaniland.com/2025/04/16/u...
paulstaniland.com
USIP, the Wilson Center, and the Politics of Wrecking
I recently received this email from Nate Cavanaugh, listed as the “Acting Chairman and President” of the United States Institute of Peace (USIP): It cancelled a contract for a special r…
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
In the wake of DeepSeek's market-jolting release, @carnegieendowment.org's Matt Sheehan and I explain why export controls almost certainly still matter, how the Chinese govt is likely to respond, and what this means for the U.S.-China AI race more broadly carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...
carnegieendowment.org
Chips, China, and a Lot of Money: The Factors Driving the DeepSeek AI Turmoil
Two experts discuss the Chinese AI startup that’s causing global turbulence and what they’re watching for in the coming weeks.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
Some more thoughts on the AI diffusion framework in @justsecurity.org. If the Trump admin keeps it—big if!—it gives them a ready-made new bargaining chip as leverage in international negotiations: www.justsecurity.org/106545/the-f...
justsecurity.org
The Future of the AI Diffusion Framework
The Biden administration's AI diffusion rule is another salvo in the United States' escalating AI competition with China.
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Just Security @justsecurity.org · 21/01/2025
How widely should the US share its #AI technologies? Amid growing competition with #China, the Trump admin will have to grapple with this question as it reviews the Biden-era diffusion rule, writes @samwl.bsky.social. www.justsecurity.org/106545/the-f...
justsecurity.org
The Future of the AI Diffusion Framework
The Biden administration's AI diffusion rule is another salvo in the United States' escalating AI competition with China.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
Yesterday, the Biden admin released one of its most ambitious acts of technological policymaking: a major new rule that reshapes how AI technology can be exported globally. @carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
With Its Latest Rule, the U.S. Tries to Govern AI’s Global Spread
How to understand the Biden administration’s new AI diffusion framework.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
Earlier today, the Biden admin released one of its most ambitious acts of technological policymaking: a major new rule that reshapes how AI technology can be exported globally.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
How widely should the US share its AI technology? In a new @carnegieendow.bsky.social paper, I map the debate on what may soon become a core question for US foreign policy. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org
The AI Export Dilemma: Three Competing Visions for U.S. Strategy
As cutting-edge artificial intelligence technology proliferates worldwide, U.S. policymakers will need to figure out how to leverage first-mover advantages and reconcile national security pressures wi...
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
How widely should the US share its AI technology? In a new @carnegieendow.bsky.social paper, I map the debate on what may soon become a core question for US foreign policy. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org
The AI Export Dilemma: Three Competing Visions for U.S. Strategy
As cutting-edge artificial intelligence technology proliferates worldwide, U.S. policymakers will need to figure out how to leverage first-mover advantages and reconcile national security pressures wi...
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 28/10/2024
In @foreignaffairs.bsky.social, I wrote about the increasingly close relationships between US AI companies and the Gulf states—and the difficult questions they raise for US policymakers: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
The Emerging Age of AI Diplomacy
To compete with China, the United States must walk a tightrope in the Gulf.
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 15/11/2024
“The United States should not impose a blanket ban on all sales of advanced AI chips to the Gulf,” writes @samwl.bsky.social. “At times, U.S. policymakers will have to become comfortable operating in regions and sectors in which U.S. and Chinese influence overlap.”
foreignaffairs.com
The Emerging Age of AI Diplomacy
To compete with China, the United States must walk a tightrope in the Gulf.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 28/10/2024
In @foreignaffairs.bsky.social, I wrote about the increasingly close relationships between US AI companies and the Gulf states—and the difficult questions they raise for US policymakers: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
The Emerging Age of AI Diplomacy
To compete with China, the United States must walk a tightrope in the Gulf.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 29/09/2024
For @foreignpolicy.com, I reviewed Chris Kirchhoff and Raj Shah’s new account of how commercial innovation is shaping warfare and how U.S. bureaucracies have struggled—and, more rarely, succeeded—in their efforts to keep up: foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/20/s...
foreignpolicy.com
Silicon Valley Hasn’t Revolutionized Warfare—Yet
The Pentagon is warming up to commercial technologies, but it has a long way to go.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 08/05/2024
My latest, for Foreign Affairs, with Michael Liebreich and @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social, on why US fears about Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are misplaced. These attacks force Russia to export more oil, not less: www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-...
foreignaffairs.com
Why Ukraine Should Keep Striking Russian Oil Refineries
Washington’s fears about energy markets are misplaced.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 18/04/2024
Thrilled to be guest-posting for @mattyglesias.bsky.social today with Bryan Schonfeld on how researchers measure antisemitism—and what we actually know about its prevalence: www.slowboring.com/p/d4a8630d-2...
slowboring.com
Slow Boring
Start your day with pragmatic takes on politics and public policy. Click to read Slow Boring, a Substack publication with hundreds of thousands of subscribers.
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 18/04/2024
Thrilled to be guest-posting for @mattyglesias.bsky.social today with Bryan Schonfeld on how researchers measure antisemitism—and what we actually know about its prevalence: www.slowboring.com/p/d4a8630d-2...
slowboring.com
Slow Boring
Start your day with pragmatic takes on politics and public policy. Click to read Slow Boring, a Substack publication with hundreds of thousands of subscribers.
243
Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 07/03/2024
Some things I read and liked recently: titletk.substack.com/p/spring-of-...
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Sam Winter-Levy @samwl.bsky.social · 15/11/2023
A round-up of a few great pieces from this fall: titletk.substack.com/p/things-ive...
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Reposted by Sam Winter-Levy
Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 03/10/2023
A good tool to bridge people you follow on Twitter over to Bluesky but took me a minute to figure out: — install plugin in Chrome — go to *your Twitter profile page* and click on list of people you follow — activate plugin Very short video was helpful: github.com/kawamataryo/...
github.com
GitHub - kawamataryo/sky-follower-bridge: Instantly find and follow the same users from your X(Twitt...
Instantly find and follow the same users from your X(Twitter) follower on Bluesky. - GitHub - kawamataryo/sky-follower-bridge: Instantly find and follow the same users from your X(Twitter) follower...
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