Sign in

Julian Jessop

@julianhjessop.bsky.social
1.8K followers 424 following 1.2K posts

Independent economist. Likes charts. IEA Economics Fellow. Schools speaker. Diploma in Law. FRSA. COYG. Views here mine only. More on website at www.julianhjessop.com. Also on substack at substack.com/@julianhjessop

PostsRepliesMedia
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 11h
More survey evidence that the labour market may be stabilising, though this is yet to show in the official data... 🤔 KPMG and REC UK Report on Jobs says both permanent and temporary recruitment picked up in September. But recovery is still fragile, and wage growth slowed again.
101
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 23h
📢 New blog post ✍️ I've written - mostly favourably - on Kemi Badenoch’s inheritance tax plans (though I'm not as keen on the carve out for family homes)... 🤔 julianhjessop.substack.com/p/two-cheers...
100
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
"Wednesday briefing: Is it time to end the Bank of England’s independence?" An impressively diverse group of economists from across the far left - Costas Lapavitsas, James Meadway and Ann Pettifor - and next up, Isabella Weber... 😉 www.theguardian.com/world/2026/o...
theguardian.com
Wednesday briefing: Is it time to end the Bank of England’s independence?
In today’s newsletter: As MPs launch a fresh inquiry into the Bank, leading economists make their case for rethinking one of Britain’s most powerful institutions
121
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The snap election in Spain (29 Nov) is yet another blow to Burnham's hopes of an easy rapprochement with the EU. Polls suggest that Spain's centre-right People’s Party and further-right Vox could form a coalition. They're even less likely to want to do a left-wing UK government any favours... 🤔
421
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
FYI, after Zack Polanski chose to campaign in Holborn & St Pancras rather than do anything to prevent the Green Party's slide into extremism, Labour are now even bigger favourites to win on Thursday... 👇 www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri...
oddschecker.com
British Politics Holborn & St Pancras By-election Betting Odds | Politics
British Politics - Holborn & St Pancras By-election Betting Odds. Get the best available British Politics odds from all online bookmakers with Oddschecker, the home of betting value.
051
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
UK economy retains some positive momentum, albeit with caveats... S&P Global UK PMI Composite Output Index fell to 52.0 in September, from 52.5 in August, but this was a touch better than the flash estimate of 51.7 and still consistent (at face value) with decent GDP growth 👇 (1/3)
131
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
"When people show you who they are, believe them..." The Greens have voted to equate Zionism with racism, while rejecting an amendment which could have prevented the policy from being used to “pressure, proscribe or discipline members based on affiliation with Jewish community institutions”... 🤔
150
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
ICYMI, I write a weekly wrap based on my social media posts and other work. You can read the latest edition and sign up (for free) in the thread below... 👇
000
Reposted by Julian Jessop
Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Just so dispiriting to watch the Greens be corrupted by the same poison that took over Labour. All the same shit: the excuses, the mealy-mouthed justifications, the tortured position statements, the deafening silences. Like a historical reenactment.
67743100
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I'm still getting questions on Dale Vince's plan for a (roughly) £3,000 increase in the personal allowance, echoing proposals from the LibDems and Reform. Here's one I wrote earlier... 🤓
000
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
"Budget fears might ease, but Brexit uncertainty is back" 📢 New blog alert - my latest Weekly Wrap is up 🤓 julianhjessop.substack.com/p/weekly-wra...
001
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
A bit of a narrative buster here (sorry)... 🤔 The UK government's cost of borrowing has risen by much *less* than most other countries, both over the past month and the past year. Unfortunately, gilt yields were relatively high to begin with, and they are still the highest.
033
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Chart of the Day 🤓 Euro area inflation jumped to 3.8% in September, from 3.2%, mainly due to higher energy costs. The operation of the Ofgem cap on domestic bills will delay the full impact on the UK CPI until October, but inflation is about to jump here too... 🫤 ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...
010
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
A reminder of another global inflation shock... The UN FAO food price index (a basket of agricultural commodities) rose further in September, as war disruption and adverse weather events continued to impact supplies of cereals, oils, and sugar 👇 www.fao.org/worldfoodsit...
001
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Another rollercoaster day sees gilt yields end lower as US Treasuries rally - could all change tomorrow after US payrolls! I get that some people want to make this all about Burnham, but it really isn't. Just look at France, with Italy now also being dragged into another EU debt crisis... 👇
196
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Chart of the Day 🤓 The cost of government borrowing has risen by less in the UK over the last month than in many other countries, notably France. BUT... The *level* of yields in the UK is still relatively high, and it is the level that matters for the public finances... 🙄
021
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Global bond sell-off continues - but what's really scary is that there still isn't much of a "Burnham premium" in gilt yields... 👇 Over the last month, 10-yr yields have risen ¼% in the UK, ½% in the US and ¾% in France (best not to take any economic lessons from Macron!)
120
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
ICYMI, I had two mentions in the HoC Treasury Select Committee's recent report on the OBR... 🤓 1⃣ on the risk that the OBR's forecasts are too conservative 2⃣ on the spurious accuracy of the debate around the fiscal 'headroom' committees.parliament.uk/work/9506/th...
011
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
CYMI, here's @TheIFS take on the changes to the triple lock 👇 I essentially agree. It's a sensible reform and will still deliver steady increases in the state pension... (1/2) ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
ifs.org.uk
How will the new triple lock work and what effects will it have? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has announced a major and welcome change to the triple lock, which will come into effect in 2030–31.
101
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
ICYMI, here's something I wrote yesterday on Dale Vince's plan to raise the personal allowance (also favoured by the LibDems, and Reform)... 🤔
000
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
FYI, this morning's Bank of England money and credit data show broad money growth remains subdued at around 4%... 👇 (In my view, this is too slow to fuel a prolonged surge in inflation - so no need for aggressive rate hikes - but not weak enough to sound the all clear either.)
011
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
ICYMI, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates overnight for the *fourth* time this year, taking the policy rate to 4.6%. And most of the comments in the accompanying statement could apply to the UK economy too... 🤔 www.rba.gov.au/media-releas...
rba.gov.au
Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases
At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent.
000
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
BRC survey suggests shop price inflation eased back in September, including food inflation, but pipeline pressures are continuing to build... "Retailers have absorbed wave after wave of extra costs, but there is a limit to what businesses can shoulder" brc.org.uk/news-and-eve...
brc.org.uk
Retailers keep prices low despite rising cost pressures
010
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
📢 new blog post ✍️ A quickie on why Dale Vince's plan for a £3,000 increase in the personal allowance doesn't add up (including the bit about how the Bank could save us £30 billion...) julianhjessop.substack.com/p/why-raisin...
011
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Three points on the big jump in the shares of major property developers today after the announcement of new Help to Buy... 1⃣ this is potentially a "good thing", because it reflects hopes of higher sales volumes (i.e. more new homes) and not just increased prices...
101
Reposted by Julian Jessop
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
📢 new blog post ✍️ My latest weekly wrap is up (link in reply) 👇
102
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"Burnham set to revive Help to Buy scheme in bid to boost housebuilding" Here we go again… 🙄 Four quick points 1⃣ Help to Buy (HTB) is a gimmick that helps only a small number of people onto the housing ladder while driving up house prices for everyone else...
3137
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
📢 new blog post ✍️ My latest weekly wrap is up (link in reply) 👇
102
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Congratulations to Mikel Arteta, who has now won the Premier League with Arsenal *three* times (2022-23, 2023-24 and 2025-26)! 🍾🍾🍾 #COYG (Assuming City stripped of their last two titles... 🫰)
031
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Updated Premier League table, removing the club that has broken multiple financial rules... 🤔 (I was tempted to keep City with a big points deduction, but didn't want to lift Sp*rs off the bottom 😉)
000
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
FYI, almost all the (small) fall in 30-year gilt yields after the BoE announced a halt to sales a week ago has now been reversed (driven again by global worries about inflation, short rates and bond issuance)... 🙄 The cost of new long-term borrowing could soon be a full %pt higher than in March...
011
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Another good take on the Tony Blair report... 🤔
020
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Good take on the latest thin gruel from the Tony Blair Institute on the EU (and David is not exactly a Brexiteer!)...
110
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I'm still quietly impressed by how some hacks managed to make a story out of a 0.1pp revision to an annual growth forecast, but here was my take on the OECD numbers... 🤓
010
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Interesting - one way Healey could reduce the pain in the Budget would be to allow the fiscal headroom to fall... 🤔 Tempting, but risky... www.ft.com/content/5dec...
100
Reposted by Julian Jessop
Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Guys the budget has been leaked!
642644
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
📢 new blog post ✍️ In an idle moment I've pulled together some comments on the latest from the OECD and the IMF... 🤔 julianhjessop.substack.com/p/what-to-ma...
julianhjessop.substack.com
What to make of the OECD forecasts
The OECD is not really in the forecasting business and its projections are no more interesting than any others. But the consistent policy messages from the OECD and IMF might carry more weight.
000
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
FYI, I'll be on Times Radio shortly after 12 noon, talking about the latest numbers and comments from the OECD and IMF... 🤔
000
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Some welcome good news from manufacturing 🫰 @cbieconomics.bsky.social's latest Industrial Trends Survey shows a further improvement in order books, though this is perhaps best described as "stabilisation" rather than "recovery". (ps. the flash PMI is out tomorrow) www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...
033
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
ICYMI, here's a summary of tax proposals made in the last 48 hours... 🧵 The Good... 👍 restore VAT-free tourist shopping (a proper evidence-based policy, would boost the economy)... cebr.com/reports/anal...
cebr.com
Analysis of tourists’ economic behaviour in the UK - CEBR
The Heart of London Business Alliance commissioned Cebr to conduct analysis of tourists’ economic behaviour in the UK, with a particular focus on VAT-free shopping.
121
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
More evidence that any "Burnham bounce" is already fading... 🤔 S&P Global's UK Consumer Sentiment Index fell back to a 3-month low in September, with "job security" at a 43-month low 👇 www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
011
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
📢 new blog post ✍️ Better late than never, my latest weekly wrap is up, with a killer chart on rental inflation... 🤔 julianhjessop.substack.com/p/weekly-wra...
000
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
📢 new blog post ✍️ "Six questions and answers on the new productivity data" Don't watch Match of the Day, read this instead... 😉 julianhjessop.substack.com/p/six-questi...
julianhjessop.substack.com
Six questions and answers on the new productivity data
New ONS analysis shows that UK productivity has held up much better than previously thought. Here’s a quick Q&A including what this could mean for the Budget, and what it is telling us about Brexit...
010
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Just to add to my posts below, here's an FT chart to illustrate the significance of the new ONS work on productivity data... 🤔 (There's still a post-GFC "productivity puzzle", but it may be much smaller than previously thought)
011
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
August retail sales were more resilient than expected (and suggested by the BRC and CBI surveys), rising by 0.5%. On a 3m/3m basis, sales rose 0.9%, maintaining the upward trend... 👇 www.ons.gov.uk/businessindu...
100
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
"The Bank of England should have raised interest rates" I have a comment piece in the Daily Telegraph, though I know not all will agree... 🤔 www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
telegraph.co.uk
001
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
ICYMI, this ONS analysis was overshadowed today by the Bank of England decision, but better news on productivity could be good both for the public finances and for inflation (the economy could grow faster without overheating)... 🤞
020
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
FYI, the Bank's announcements have gone down well in the bond markets today, but worth stressing that most of the action has been in longer maturities (reflecting the decision to halt sales of long-dated gilts) rather than the short end (the decision to hold rates today was widely expected)... 🤓
000
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
FYI, I'll be on SkyNews live at noon to discuss the Bank of England MPC's decision to "look past another temporary supply shock" / "kick the can further down the road" / "get ahead of the curve" * * delete as applicable... 😉
000
Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Some potentially better news - including for the public finances? 🤔 A new (improved) ONS methodology suggests that productivity slowed by less than previously thought after the GFC. Could this encourage the OBR to be more optimistic about the future too? ons.gov.uk/economy/econ...
122