JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 13hBBC are reporting this morning that energy bills are set to jump 16% in January. On its own, obv not good news (as Jonny makes clear below - more support is likely coming at the Budget), but this is actually lower than 24% BoE has a couple of weeks ago as wholesale gas prices have fallen slightly. 001
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 24/09/2026At the @NIESRorg London Macro Policy Forum we’re talking about the monetary policy outlook. Great panel with @swatidhingra.bsky.social, Jan Vlieghe and others. Clear theme: how BoE deals with the gathering energy price shock. Difficult times ahead… 110
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 24/09/2026We are talking about how to reform housing taxes @resolutionfoundation.org this morning. Taxes in this area are a mess - so it’s time we got some proper reform (take note @andyburnham.bsky.social). Do read our report on how to put this right: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...resolutionfoundation.orgHome economics • Resolution FoundationEngland’s housing taxes are a mess: Council Tax still rests on 1991 valuations, and Stamp Duty gums up the market. This briefing note shows who loses out, and sets out a roadmap to a fairer, proportio... 012
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Here's full details of this morning's disappointing public finances data from @cillian-sheehan.bsky.social. The data show higher spending than the OBR had bee forecasting, at least a big chunk of which is the effects of higher inflation. 011
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 17/09/2026BoE did not follow the Fed and ECB today, leaving rates on hold at 3.75%. But the big news was on how it unwinds QE, allowing the Debt Management Office to manage the process. Both of these are good news on the cost of borrowing but there was also bad news on the cost of living... 185
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 16/09/2026CPI inflation jumps back up to 3.1% in August from 2.9% in July. This was in line with market expectations but above the BoE forecast (from July). The worse news is that with rising oil and gas prices there is more of this to come... Short thread to follow. 158
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Want to know how the net zero transition can be leveraged to drive new high-quality jobs and regenerate local areas? Course you do. @zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org has the answers for you here...resolutionfoundation.substack.comIs net zero reindustrialising the North?Green jobs, clean industries, and the future of Grimsby and Aberdeen 064
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 19/08/2026Summer of good economic news seems to be grinding to a halt with UK inflation up to 2.9% in July, from 2.6% in June, slightly higher than expected by the BoE. Main driver was a rise in energy prices reflecting the impact of conflict in the Middle East. Short thread to follow.. 122
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 18/08/2026All you need to know about this morning's mixed bag of labour market data from @hannahslaughter.bsky.social and @louisemurphy.bsky.social here: 000
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 30/07/2026BoE holds rates at 3.75% for the fifth time in a row on 6-3 Committee vote. Bigger question for today is what the Bank has to say about how long high inflation is going to hang around. This matters for the new government and struggling families. Thread on that to follow... 184
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 22/07/2026Welcome - and slightly larger than expected - fall in UK CPI inflation in June to 2.6% (2.8 in May). But, with conflict in the Middle East resuming, this is likely to prove short lived, meaning the government is right to focus on cost of living pressures. Thread to follow... 184
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 20/07/2026Perhaps the biggest challenge for Andy Burnham is going to be how to balance the books. So here's a thread on the challenges ahead drawing on a new RF report with Simon Pittaway, Cillian Sheehan and Andy King. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...resolutionfoundation.orgThe great escape • Resolution FoundationThis report is the first in a series on the size and shape of the state, and how the public finances can be better managed in an era of low growth and high uncertainty. It diagnoses how Britain fell i... 142
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 16/07/2026Here at @resolutionfoundation.org we’re giving advice to Andy Burnham and his new government on how to end our fiscal malaise this morning. Great panel to discuss the difficult issues here… 021
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 16/07/2026Please do join this great @resolutionfoundation.org event starting soon. 000
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 08/07/2026Huge congratulations to Silvana and what a great appointment for the IMF. Having worked closely with Silvana as an @resolutionfoundation.org associate it is clear that she will be amazing in this job. Sad to see her exit the UK policy debate - but our loss is the world economy's gain! 👏👏👏 033
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 07/07/2026New @OBR_UK Fiscal risks and sustainability report out today: obr.uk/frs/fiscal-r.... Plenty of exploding debt charts to confirm your worst fiscal fears (see below). But there's also some hints at our fiscal salvation... Short thread on that to follow (& a plug for next week)... 373
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 18/06/2026Bank of England on hold as expected this lunchtime (so rates stay at 3.75%). Big story for today is whether the Bank will give any indication as to whether the next move in rates is up (on inflation concerns) or down (given tumbling energy prices and weak lab market). Short thread to follow... 192
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 18/06/2026All you need to know about this morning's (volatile) labour market data. 000
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 17/06/2026Hold onto your hats everyone because there's double *good* news on UK inflation this morning... The expected rise in inflation in May failed to materialise AND (more importantly) falls in energy prices mean inflation will peak much lower than expected later this year... 2236
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 15/06/2026The debate on UK defence spending has jumped to a tradeoff between welfare and defending the country. That is odd, unhelpful and - in some cases - just plain inaccurate as Ruth Curtice explains here: substack.com/home/post/p-...substack.comDefence versus welfare – the trade-off is being misrepresentedRuth Curtice takes a closer look at the 'defence versus welfare spending' debate, and explains why it's important we have a clear picture of how we spent the peace dividend while it was around. 064
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 02/06/2026Here @resolutionfoundation.org we are talking wars, no, not in the Middle East this time, but trade wars. We have @soumayakeynes.ft.com and @chadpbown.com talking about how to win one. 142
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 20/05/2026UK inflation data out this morning show an unexpectedly big FALL in the rate of price increases. You might be forgiven for thinking there is a war on, so why is inflation falling? A LOT going on here, so thread to follow. Key point - this is the last fall for a while so enjoy it while you can... 1138
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 14/05/2026Want to know why we all want to live in the UK but only in January, February and March (Q1)? @simonpittaway.bsky.social has all the answers for you... 020
Reposted by JamesSmithRFSimon Pittaway @simonpittaway.bsky.social · 12/05/2026I've been writing about interest rates (again) for the RF Substack. 042
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 30/04/2026Bank of England follows the Fed and holds its policy rate at 3.75% given uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East. BoE hints it will be patient on raising rates but the bigger issue is its assessment of the impact of the war. Thread on all that to follow... 295
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 23/04/2026We got a first look at the public finances for the whole of 2025-26 this morning. The government should take credit for bringing down borrowing BUT: taxes are up a lot; and the pub finances are in a worse state than before the election. @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social has all the details for you: 022
Reposted by JamesSmithRFResolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 22/04/2026🚨Live in 5 minutes! 🚨 What does war in the Middle East mean for the economic outlook and the public finances? Watch here ➡️ buff.ly/95QR0VI 011
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 22/04/2026New inflation data out this morning are the first to be affected by war in the middle east. CPI inflation was 3.3% in March, up from 3.0% in February, mainly driven by rises in petrol prices. Further increases in inflation are on the way. Short thread on where we are headed to follow... 1113
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 21/04/2026All the details of this morning's conflicting labour market stats wrapped up in one handy thread from @hannahslaughter.bsky.social, @louisemurphy.bsky.social and @jametg.bsky.social 👏👏👏 010
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 16/04/2026Good work from @resolutionfoundation.org colleagues in pushing for changes to energy pricing: 010
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 01/04/2026Some facts behind all the debate on what is happening in the mortgage market right now. 010
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 26/03/2026I may be hopelessly biased but this is a great piece of working trying to spark debate about the impact of seemingly opaque financial regulation on younger and poorer families. @simonpittaway.bsky.social & Hannah Aldridge. 👏👏👏 010
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 25/03/2026Not too late to sign up to tomorrow great event on the housing market: 000
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 25/03/2026As expected, UK CPI inflation held steady at 3.0% in February according to data out this morning. But the key issue is where inflation is *going*, rather than where it was. Thread on what the latest data tells us and how cost of living pressures will now build to follow... 1125
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 21/03/2026This is going to be a great event on Thursday with @bankofengland Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden, who is an excellent speaker. Do sign up. 000
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 20/03/202610y yields are at their highest since 2008 today off the back of expectations that central banks will soon have to raise rates. This is bad news for the public finances and bad news for those looking to get a mortgage. 092
Reposted by JamesSmithRFElliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 20/03/2026Unanimous in the face of uncertainty. Yesterday's Bank of England decision to hold interest rates at 3.75% was the first unanimous vote by the 9-strong Monetary Policy Committee in over 4 years. 0114
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 20/03/2026Public finances data was pretty disappointing this morning. Not ideal given war in the Middle East is likely to end up hitting the public sector finances. @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social has all the details for you... 020
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 19/03/2026Here's all you need to know on today's key labour market data. Things were a bit better than expected (unemployment rate lower; employment stronger) but that's not been shared by younger people, who are faring worse, and all this comes before any effects from the conflict in the Middle East. 020
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 19/03/2026Bank of England keeps rates at 3.75% on a striking unanimous vote. All eyes on how the BoE might change tack in the face of renewed energy shock. Thread on that to follow… 174
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 19/03/2026Great thread on why yesterday's land use framework is welcome but 'kicks the can' on a lot of the key details.... 000
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 18/03/2026Great thread from @nyecominetti.bsky.social here on the new LPC remit that was snuck out earlier in the week. Bottom line govt has got itself in a bit of a muddle on what to do about youth rates and is now backing away (at least to some extent) on convergence with adult rate. 030
Reposted by JamesSmithRFNye Cominetti @nyecominetti.bsky.social · 18/03/2026I missed this: Govt published LPC's remit for the 2027 minimum wage rates on Monday (the rates coming in next month are already set). Main take-away is Govt wants a more cautious approach to the youth rates. It has dialed up the 'worry about employment' bit of the remit. www.gov.uk/government/p...gov.ukLow Pay Commission Remit 2026: National Living Wage and National Minimum Wage 2109
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 18/03/2026Our take on yesterday's Mais lecture (from @sophiehale.bsky.social 👏👏👏). The short version is that it's great to hear the government is doubling down on growth - but still A LOT more it can do... 002
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 13/03/2026Disappointing UK GDP this morning with the economy flatlining in January. Bit surprising given survey suggesting a brighter start to the year. Outlook is now clouded by conflict in Iran. Plenty for the Chancellor to worry about as she prepares for next week's Mais lecture. Short thread to follow... 5139
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 06/03/2026Great conversation with @gilesyb.bsky.social and @ruthcurtice.bsky.social on this podcast. Do check it out. (Don't worry, we don't talk about the Spring Forecast for long - there's much more on where we are now and how economic policy might unfold over the rest of this year). 032
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 06/03/2026Really enjoyed recording this. Key point for me: even if there wasn't a lot of new policy this week, the Spring Statement tells us a lot about the state of our economy, and our politics right now. 020
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 03/03/2026Follow the Spring Forecast live with Ruth Curtice: 001
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 26/02/2026This morning we got another release of the ONS's estimates of the differential impact of inflation - the Household Cost Indices (or HCIs) going up to the end of last year. The story here is inflation rates converging as differences in housing cost contributions continue to wane... 134
JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 23/02/2026Today's consultation on SEND spending (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/699862...) shows why policy announcements shd come with fiscal events. It *seems* to contain new money, but isn't clear how it will be funded or what it means for the fiscal rules. Thread on what is going on to follow...assets.publishing.service.gov.uk 123