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JamesSmithRF

@jamessmithrf.bsky.social
2.7K followers 446 following 840 posts

Chief Economist at the Resolution Foundation. Previous lives at the Bank of England and in the civil service. Focussed on all things economic-policy related.

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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 13h
BBC are reporting this morning that energy bills are set to jump 16% in January. On its own, obv not good news (as Jonny makes clear below - more support is likely coming at the Budget), but this is actually lower than 24% BoE has a couple of weeks ago as wholesale gas prices have fallen slightly.
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
At the @NIESRorg London Macro Policy Forum we’re talking about the monetary policy outlook. Great panel with @swatidhingra.bsky.social, Jan Vlieghe and others. Clear theme: how BoE deals with the gathering energy price shock. Difficult times ahead…
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
We are talking about how to reform housing taxes @resolutionfoundation.org this morning. Taxes in this area are a mess - so it’s time we got some proper reform (take note @andyburnham.bsky.social). Do read our report on how to put this right: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
Home economics • Resolution Foundation
England’s housing taxes are a mess: Council Tax still rests on 1991 valuations, and Stamp Duty gums up the market. This briefing note shows who loses out, and sets out a roadmap to a fairer, proportio...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Here's full details of this morning's disappointing public finances data from @cillian-sheehan.bsky.social. The data show higher spending than the OBR had bee forecasting, at least a big chunk of which is the effects of higher inflation.
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
BoE did not follow the Fed and ECB today, leaving rates on hold at 3.75%. But the big news was on how it unwinds QE, allowing the Debt Management Office to manage the process. Both of these are good news on the cost of borrowing but there was also bad news on the cost of living...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
CPI inflation jumps back up to 3.1% in August from 2.9% in July. This was in line with market expectations but above the BoE forecast (from July). The worse news is that with rising oil and gas prices there is more of this to come... Short thread to follow.
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Want to know how the net zero transition can be leveraged to drive new high-quality jobs and regenerate local areas? Course you do. @zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org has the answers for you here...
resolutionfoundation.substack.com
Is net zero reindustrialising the North?
Green jobs, clean industries, and the future of Grimsby and Aberdeen
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Summer of good economic news seems to be grinding to a halt with UK inflation up to 2.9% in July, from 2.6% in June, slightly higher than expected by the BoE. Main driver was a rise in energy prices reflecting the impact of conflict in the Middle East. Short thread to follow..
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
All you need to know about this morning's mixed bag of labour market data from @hannahslaughter.bsky.social and @louisemurphy.bsky.social here:
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
BoE holds rates at 3.75% for the fifth time in a row on 6-3 Committee vote. Bigger question for today is what the Bank has to say about how long high inflation is going to hang around. This matters for the new government and struggling families. Thread on that to follow...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Welcome - and slightly larger than expected - fall in UK CPI inflation in June to 2.6% (2.8 in May). But, with conflict in the Middle East resuming, this is likely to prove short lived, meaning the government is right to focus on cost of living pressures. Thread to follow...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Perhaps the biggest challenge for Andy Burnham is going to be how to balance the books. So here's a thread on the challenges ahead drawing on a new RF report with Simon Pittaway, Cillian Sheehan and Andy King. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
The great escape • Resolution Foundation
This report is the first in a series on the size and shape of the state, and how the public finances can be better managed in an era of low growth and high uncertainty. It diagnoses how Britain fell i...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Here at @resolutionfoundation.org we’re giving advice to Andy Burnham and his new government on how to end our fiscal malaise this morning. Great panel to discuss the difficult issues here…
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Please do join this great @resolutionfoundation.org event starting soon.
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Huge congratulations to Silvana and what a great appointment for the IMF. Having worked closely with Silvana as an @resolutionfoundation.org associate it is clear that she will be amazing in this job. Sad to see her exit the UK policy debate - but our loss is the world economy's gain! 👏👏👏
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
New @OBR_UK Fiscal risks and sustainability report out today: obr.uk/frs/fiscal-r.... Plenty of exploding debt charts to confirm your worst fiscal fears (see below). But there's also some hints at our fiscal salvation... Short thread on that to follow (& a plug for next week)...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Bank of England on hold as expected this lunchtime (so rates stay at 3.75%). Big story for today is whether the Bank will give any indication as to whether the next move in rates is up (on inflation concerns) or down (given tumbling energy prices and weak lab market). Short thread to follow...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
All you need to know about this morning's (volatile) labour market data.
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Hold onto your hats everyone because there's double *good* news on UK inflation this morning... The expected rise in inflation in May failed to materialise AND (more importantly) falls in energy prices mean inflation will peak much lower than expected later this year...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
The debate on UK defence spending has jumped to a tradeoff between welfare and defending the country. That is odd, unhelpful and - in some cases - just plain inaccurate as Ruth Curtice explains here: substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com
Defence versus welfare – the trade-off is being misrepresented
Ruth Curtice takes a closer look at the 'defence versus welfare spending' debate, and explains why it's important we have a clear picture of how we spent the peace dividend while it was around.
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Here @resolutionfoundation.org we are talking wars, no, not in the Middle East this time, but trade wars. We have @soumayakeynes.ft.com and @chadpbown.com talking about how to win one.
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
UK inflation data out this morning show an unexpectedly big FALL in the rate of price increases. You might be forgiven for thinking there is a war on, so why is inflation falling? A LOT going on here, so thread to follow. Key point - this is the last fall for a while so enjoy it while you can...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Want to know why we all want to live in the UK but only in January, February and March (Q1)? @simonpittaway.bsky.social has all the answers for you...
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Simon Pittaway @simonpittaway.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
I've been writing about interest rates (again) for the RF Substack.
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Bank of England follows the Fed and holds its policy rate at 3.75% given uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East. BoE hints it will be patient on raising rates but the bigger issue is its assessment of the impact of the war. Thread on all that to follow...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
We got a first look at the public finances for the whole of 2025-26 this morning. The government should take credit for bringing down borrowing BUT: taxes are up a lot; and the pub finances are in a worse state than before the election. @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social has all the details for you:
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 22/04/2026
🚨Live in 5 minutes! 🚨 What does war in the Middle East mean for the economic outlook and the public finances? Watch here ➡️ buff.ly/95QR0VI
The economic fallout from war in the Middle East Part II
The outlook for the economy and public finances 
Wednesday 22nd April
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
New inflation data out this morning are the first to be affected by war in the middle east. CPI inflation was 3.3% in March, up from 3.0% in February, mainly driven by rises in petrol prices. Further increases in inflation are on the way. Short thread on where we are headed to follow...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
All the details of this morning's conflicting labour market stats wrapped up in one handy thread from @hannahslaughter.bsky.social, @louisemurphy.bsky.social and @jametg.bsky.social 👏👏👏
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Good work from @resolutionfoundation.org colleagues in pushing for changes to energy pricing:
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Some facts behind all the debate on what is happening in the mortgage market right now.
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
I may be hopelessly biased but this is a great piece of working trying to spark debate about the impact of seemingly opaque financial regulation on younger and poorer families. @simonpittaway.bsky.social & Hannah Aldridge. 👏👏👏
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Not too late to sign up to tomorrow great event on the housing market:
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
As expected, UK CPI inflation held steady at 3.0% in February according to data out this morning. But the key issue is where inflation is *going*, rather than where it was. Thread on what the latest data tells us and how cost of living pressures will now build to follow...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
This is going to be a great event on Thursday with @bankofengland Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden, who is an excellent speaker. Do sign up.
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
10y yields are at their highest since 2008 today off the back of expectations that central banks will soon have to raise rates. This is bad news for the public finances and bad news for those looking to get a mortgage.
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Elliott Christensen @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Unanimous in the face of uncertainty. Yesterday's Bank of England decision to hold interest rates at 3.75% was the first unanimous vote by the 9-strong Monetary Policy Committee in over 4 years.
The scatter chart shows the voting history of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) since 2017 to present. It is annotated with March 2026, the most recent and a unanimous vote, and September 2021, the last occasion the MPC voted unanimously.
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Public finances data was pretty disappointing this morning. Not ideal given war in the Middle East is likely to end up hitting the public sector finances. @elliott-xtensen.bsky.social has all the details for you...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Here's all you need to know on today's key labour market data. Things were a bit better than expected (unemployment rate lower; employment stronger) but that's not been shared by younger people, who are faring worse, and all this comes before any effects from the conflict in the Middle East.
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Bank of England keeps rates at 3.75% on a striking unanimous vote. All eyes on how the BoE might change tack in the face of renewed energy shock. Thread on that to follow…
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Great thread on why yesterday's land use framework is welcome but 'kicks the can' on a lot of the key details....
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Great thread from @nyecominetti.bsky.social here on the new LPC remit that was snuck out earlier in the week. Bottom line govt has got itself in a bit of a muddle on what to do about youth rates and is now backing away (at least to some extent) on convergence with adult rate.
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Nye Cominetti @nyecominetti.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
I missed this: Govt published LPC's remit for the 2027 minimum wage rates on Monday (the rates coming in next month are already set). Main take-away is Govt wants a more cautious approach to the youth rates. It has dialed up the 'worry about employment' bit of the remit. www.gov.uk/government/p...
gov.uk
Low Pay Commission Remit 2026: National Living Wage and National Minimum Wage
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Our take on yesterday's Mais lecture (from @sophiehale.bsky.social 👏👏👏). The short version is that it's great to hear the government is doubling down on growth - but still A LOT more it can do...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Disappointing UK GDP this morning with the economy flatlining in January. Bit surprising given survey suggesting a brighter start to the year. Outlook is now clouded by conflict in Iran. Plenty for the Chancellor to worry about as she prepares for next week's Mais lecture. Short thread to follow...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Great conversation with @gilesyb.bsky.social and @ruthcurtice.bsky.social on this podcast. Do check it out. (Don't worry, we don't talk about the Spring Forecast for long - there's much more on where we are now and how economic policy might unfold over the rest of this year).
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Really enjoyed recording this. Key point for me: even if there wasn't a lot of new policy this week, the Spring Statement tells us a lot about the state of our economy, and our politics right now.
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Follow the Spring Forecast live with Ruth Curtice:
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
This morning we got another release of the ONS's estimates of the differential impact of inflation - the Household Cost Indices (or HCIs) going up to the end of last year. The story here is inflation rates converging as differences in housing cost contributions continue to wane...
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JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Today's consultation on SEND spending (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/699862...) shows why policy announcements shd come with fiscal events. It *seems* to contain new money, but isn't clear how it will be funded or what it means for the fiscal rules. Thread on what is going on to follow...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
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