Reposted by Louise MurphyAlex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Our report from June explains how the replacement for the triple lock will work (we called it a 'smoothed' triple lock). It's a much better policy than the current triple lock - State Pension is protected from inflation spikes and tracks earnings long term, but the expensive ratchet is removed. 63018
Reposted by Louise MurphySimon Pittaway @simonpittaway.bsky.social · 25/09/2026A core part of diagnosing Britain's malaise is that our post-2007 slowdown in productivity growth was much worse than our peers. That may no longer be true. New ONS data suggests we actually had the *second-fastest* rate of productivity growth in the G7 between 2007 and 2019. 133
Reposted by Louise MurphyCillian Sheehan @cillian-sheehan.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Some tough news for John Healey this morning: August borrowing came in at £18.3bn – that’s up from £15.4bn a year ago and the second highest August on record. This shows why the Chancellor faces a tricky balancing act ahead for the Budget. Short thread…🧵 2109
Reposted by Louise MurphyEduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/09/2026This is one of the key charts from our report out today. PIP only provides 2 levels of support for daily living costs. This means people with very different levels of assessed disability get the same amount of cash. 042
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026DWP has just published a flurry of new data on how PIP and UC-Health assessments are carried out (face-to-face or via phone, video or paper) and whether this impacts who gets awarded health-related benefits. Five takeaways 🧵 11814
Reposted by Louise MurphyHannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 18/08/2026Today’s labour market statistics show that the decent GDP growth from the early summer isn’t (yet) translating into stronger employment and pay, which both remained fairly flat in the latest month. Our @resolutionfoundation.org thread from me and @louisemurphy.bsky.social 🧵... 2146
Reposted by Louise MurphyParth Pandya @parthpandya.bsky.social · 12/08/2026But screens aren't the main driver of the recorded rise in time use data, solo working is. Across the standard 9-to-5, the share of people doing paid work alone rose from around 5% to between 12 and 15% (a near-tripling). (3/5) 111
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 09/07/2026The interim report of the Timms Review of PIP was published this morning, and its conclusion is stark: "PIP is not working." Here's a thread summarising what it says, and what we might expect from the final report in the autumn. 🧵 43013
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 02/07/2026Good to see the Government announce action to reduce the number of 16-17-year-olds who are NEET or 'not known'. While we might expect local labour market conditions to vary, the ability of local authorities to enforce the mandatory participation age should not. www.gov.uk/government/n... 293
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 18/06/2026This morning’s data shows a weak labour market: unemployment remains high and real wages are barely growing. The monthly LFS unemployment data is volatile but the big picture is that unemployment has been climbing for the past few years and stood at 4.9% in the three months to April. 2137
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 16/06/20264 million people in England and Wales now receive PIP. As the Timms Review gets underway, here are five things today's new DWP data tells us about the benefit 🧵 254
Reposted by Louise MurphyGiles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 29/05/2026Extraordinary testimony to the Millburn Report about sleeping habits 125719
Reposted by Louise MurphyNye Cominetti @nyecominetti.bsky.social · 28/05/2026If you need persuading of the importance of education funding / structures to UK's NEET problem, this chart was my best attempt at making that point. UK has *higher* % of YP in straight-employment than almost all OECD countries. But still manages higher NEET rates because ed participation so low 1127
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 21/05/2026This is a fantastic report - we are utterly failing too many young people, and it is no wonder that many of them feel fed up with the systems around them 022
Reposted by Louise MurphySimon Pittaway @simonpittaway.bsky.social · 21/05/2026The UK's run of feel-good economic data came to an abrupt end this morning. The flash composite PMI index for May suggests private-sector activity shrank on the month. Worryingly, this happened despite pre-emptive buying propping up manufacturing. Services shrank at the fastest rate since 2021. 032
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 13/05/2026Running a half marathon isn't my idea of fun... but neither is living in a country where we lose someone to suicide every 75 minutes. I'm running the Hackney Half this Sunday for The Listening Place - any donations would be hugely appreciated! www.justgiving.com/page/louisem...justgiving.comLouise's fundraiser for The Listening PlaceHelp Louise Murphy raise money to support The Listening Place 170
Reposted by Louise MurphyJamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 30/04/2026Bank of England follows the Fed and holds its policy rate at 3.75% given uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East. BoE hints it will be patient on raising rates but the bigger issue is its assessment of the impact of the war. Thread on all that to follow... 295
Reposted by Louise MurphyResolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 24/04/2026How many pints of Guinness does an hour’s work buy you? Well, it depends where you live. Check out our Chart of the week ⤵️ buff.ly/KPkiIZZ 1166
Reposted by Louise MurphyHannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026This morning’s stats show that the labour market remains loose, with high unemployment (albeit with a surprise fall in the latest month) and weak wage growth. A thread about what this means as we go into an energy price shock from me, @louisemurphy.bsky.social and @jametg.bsky.social: 1134
Reposted by Louise MurphyParth Pandya @parthpandya.bsky.social · 17/04/2026New #ONS estimates of #families and #households in the #UK, up to 2025, were released today (www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...). The most eye-catching finding is the trend towards living with parents, especially so for young men. Here’s a thread with some key takeaways 🧵:ons.gov.ukFamilies and households in the UK - Office for National StatisticsEstimates of families (with and without children) and household types, including people living alone in the UK in 2025. 577
Reposted by Louise MurphyJonny Marshall @jonnymarshall.bsky.social · 04/03/2026What a difference a week makes. It's almost as though our entire energy system is based on something fundamentally unstable 295
Reposted by Louise MurphyNye Cominetti @nyecominetti.bsky.social · 26/02/2026NEET estimates for Q4 2025 from ONS this morning. We already pretty much had the picture for Q4 from the main stats release last week (rising unemp) but let's run through the charts. And then zoom out. First - the number crept up ever so slightly. Importantly for comms the number remains below 1m. 187
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 25/02/2026Tomorrow the ONS will publish new data on the number of young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET). This is important – and not just because the number is very close to one million… 21912
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 17/02/2026Youth unemployment is at its highest level in over a decade - here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org take on today’s labour market stats 072
Reposted by Louise MurphyResolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 10/02/2026🚨 New Living Standards Outlook published today! 🚨 This year will see a welcome boost to living standards... which we sadly expect to be short-lived. @louisemurphy.bsky.social explains 👇 buff.ly/siFTYAC 066
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 10/02/2026Families across Britain have experienced two decades of poor income growth, and the outlook for the rest of the 2020s isn't much better. In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones... 174
Reposted by Louise MurphySimon Pittaway @simonpittaway.bsky.social · 05/02/2026Look, I know there's a lot going on in the news right now. But the MPC decision today was actually quite interesting! They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low. Thread below ⤵️ 13021
Reposted by Louise MurphyAlex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 29/01/2026Our new report on Universal Credit is out today. We worked with participants from @changingrealities.bsky.social to develop 16 recommendations for how outcomes for and experiences of UC claimants can be improved. This thread has the details! 263
Reposted by Louise MurphyXiaowei Xu @xiaoweixu.bsky.social · 15/01/2026The latest USoc wave lets us split out the Covid years from what came after. So striking that they look the same! Average mental ill health (based on a general screening instrument) is no better now than during the lockdown years, at any age. @alexbryson.bsky.social @dannyblanchy.bsky.social 31111
Reposted by Louise MurphyBen Baumberg Geiger @benbgeiger.bsky.social · 16/01/2026Job opportunity - we need a fab new colleague to do quant research on work, welfare and mental health within @kingscsmh.bsky.social (closes 8 Feb) This is funded until Apr/28, but we'll support you in bids to extend it - please do circulate to suitable ppl! www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD294/p...jobs.ac.ukPostdoctoral Research Associate in Work, Welfare & Mental Health at King's College LondonApply now for the Postdoctoral Research Associate in Work, Welfare & Mental Health role on jobs.ac.uk - the leading job board for higher education jobs. View details. 1514
Reposted by Louise MurphyHannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 16/12/2025Today’s labour market stats show a weakening jobs market, with rising unemployment and flatlining real pay. Some @resolutionfoundation.org key takeaways from me and @louisemurphy.bsky.social 🧵 ... 1129
Reposted by Louise MurphyNye Cominetti @nyecominetti.bsky.social · 15/12/2025Have written a piece teeing up tomorrow's labour market stats, pointing out the sort-of obvious - that we currently have a problem with unemployment (i.e. demand) not just participation (i.e. supply). www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...resolutionfoundation.orgLabour Market Outlook Q4 2025 • Resolution FoundationEmployment has fallen over the past two years and is substantially lower than it was before the pandemic. Perhaps surprisingly given its central place in policy debates, participation is essentially u... 11410
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 11/12/2025Good news - DWP has finally published UC Health data, splitting out those who have migrated over from legacy benefits (ESA). What does the data tell us? ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic. 31611
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 08/12/2025The Govt is undertaking the Timms review, assessing whether PIP is “fair and fit for the future”. But what if we could learn lessons from a nation within the UK that had successfully implemented a new adult disability benefit just three years ago? 🤔 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...resolutionfoundation.orgDelivering dignity? • Resolution FoundationWhen the Scottish Government introduced the Adult Disability Payment (ADP) in 2022 to replace Personal Independence Payment (PIP), it set out to do things differently. [i] Although the two benefits ha... 2148
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 27/11/2025This Budget was undoubtedly a progressive one. The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent. But beneath the surface... 1189
Reposted by Louise MurphyCharlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 27/11/2025New net migration figures show that international net-migration falls to 204k (like 2000s average). Partly reflects ONS revisions to how they calculate the figure. This is a big difference compared to the latest ONS projections, which don't forecast impact of policy or use the latest data. 194
Reposted by Louise MurphyResolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 26/11/2025The Chancellor has scrapped the two-child limit, benefitting more than half a million families. In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit: - 6 in 10 had 3 children. - 6 in 10 had at least one person in work. - And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit. 23324
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 26/11/2025Reminder - increasing the number of face-to-face assessments for PIP is a red herring. The success rates for face-to-face vs virtual assessments are very similar. 1156
Reposted by Louise MurphyAlex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 26/11/2025Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy. OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty 1241384
Reposted by Louise MurphyJonny Marshall @jonnymarshall.bsky.social · 26/11/2025Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation 21712
Reposted by Louise MurphyNye Cominetti @nyecominetti.bsky.social · 25/11/2025The 2026 minimum wage rates have been announced: NLW: £12.21➡️£12.71. (+4.1%) 18-20-yo rate: £10➡️£10.85. (+8.5%) 16-17-yo rate: £7.55➡️£8.00. (+6%) Some context & thoughts on those uprating decisions: 137
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 25/11/2025Great new blog from Alex. Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed. 051
Reposted by Louise MurphySophie Metcalfe @sophiemetcalfe.bsky.social · 20/11/2025NEW: Report from me and @nehaldavison.bsky.social on how and why boys from low-income families get left behind in their early years 🧵⬇️ www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...instituteforgovernment.org.ukThe opportunity gap facing boys from low-income families at age 5 and beyond | Institute for GovernmentEarly attainment gaps mean some boys don't just start behind, they stay behind. 32022
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 12/11/2025Unless DWP improves the clarity of its UC statistics by splitting out claimants who migrate from legacy benefits to UC vs those who make new claims, we're going to keep getting misleading headlines like this for the foreseeable future... 1115
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 11/11/2025Today’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, with unemployment reaching 5 per cent for the first time in almost a decade (pandemic period aside). Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me. 12517
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 07/11/2025What should we make of the Mayfield 'Keep Britain Working' review, published this week? New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further. www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...resolutionfoundation.orgFrom Review to reality • Resolution FoundationThere’s always a danger that official reviews end up generating a lot of talk and symbolic gestures, but don’t set out meaningful steps for change. That’s the challenge faced by the just-published rev... 050
Reposted by Louise MurphyAmber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 06/11/2025NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.instituteforgovernment.org.ukPerformance Tracker 2025: Schools | Institute for GovernmentIt will be extremely difficult for the government to meet its education priorities within the budget it has set for the coming parliament. 11516
Reposted by Louise MurphyRuth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 27/10/2025Rare opportunity. We are currently recruiting for a member of our senior leadership team to take forward our work on productivity and growth. Do get in touch if interested. www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...resolutionfoundation.orgResearch Director • Resolution FoundationThe Resolution Foundation is looking for an exceptional candidate to help lead our research team. This is an exciting opportunity to join the Foundation’s senior leadership as we seek to turn around t... 0616
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 21/10/2025There are close to one million young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) - but before we can fix this problem, we need to understand who these young people really are. We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report... www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...resolutionfoundation.orgFalse starts • Resolution FoundationNearly one million young people are now NEET (not in education, employment or training). Tackling this crisis requires stronger enforcement of participation requirements for 16-17-year-olds and an exp... 3155
Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 07/10/2025It's increasingly perplexing that DWP aren't prioritising improving their stats to better reflect the move from legacy benefits to UC. Until then, we'll keep getting misleading headlines like 'Long-term sickness claims rising by 5,000 a day' - you can't blame journalists when the stats are so bad! 2218