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Pavel Podvig

@russianforces.org
8.2K followers 321 following 914 posts

Russian nuclear forces, nuclear arms control, disarmament, verification. Strictly personal views here. All coordinates are at russianforces.org/podvig

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Reposted by Pavel Podvig
Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 4h
A 1969 letter to Kissinger asserted that BMEWS issued 40-50 "false reports"/"false alarms" per year, which is basically once a week! nsarchive.gwu.edu/sites/defaul...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 19h
"Is the Dead Hand back? Well, it never went away" - My take on the story about Kosvinsky Kamen/The Dead Hand/Perimeter. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09... Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/is-the-dea...
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Reposted by Pavel Podvig
The Insider @theins.press · 28/09/2026
Times report says Russia reactivated its “Dead Hand” nuclear retaliation system — expert @russianforces.org says the system was never deactivated The recent modernization of an underground command center inside Mount Kosvinsky Kamen in the Urals sparked speculation over the Soviet Perimeter system.
theins.press
Times report says Russia reactivated its “Dead Hand” nuclear retaliation system — expert Pavel Podvig says the system was never deactivated
Russia has significantly expanded and modernized a secret underground command center inside Mount Kosvinsky Kamen in the Urals in recent years, a facility…
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 27/09/2026
A section from the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces book describing nuclear command and control russianforces.org/RussianStrat... Soviet document showing the system has not been in automatic mode russianforces.org/blog/2006/04... Also note - it's not a bunker for the leadership. 2/2
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 27/09/2026
People should take a deep breath about this "Russia reactivated the Dead Hand system" story. Object 1335 is just an element of nuclear command and control. It's never been deactivated. There is every reason to believe it's never been automatic and isn't now. Some links in reply 1/2
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 27/09/2026
Thanks. But I'm puzzled why people think it's a big deal.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 27/09/2026
There is absolutely no reason to believe it is automatic.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 27/09/2026
Yes, Russia has (finally) completed the construction of that command center in the Urals. No surprises here. www.thetimes.com/article/03e5... The story has some good photos. What's puzzling is that it seems to suggest that survivable command and control is somehow problematic. It is not.
thetimes.com
Revealed: Putin is preparing a base for doomsday nuclear strikes
Exclusive investigation: Operation Dead Hand has been revived to guarantee retaliation if Russia comes under nuclear attack
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 24/09/2026
How do they know you are trying to learn?
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Reposted by Pavel Podvig
James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Now imagine that during a crisis an AI draws from a huge amount of data to conclude that Russia or China are preparing a nuclear first strike and an under-pressure analyst sends that immediately up the chain.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 18/09/2026
Russia launched a Glonass satellite. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09... Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-...
Image of a rocket launched from the Plesetsk site
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 16/09/2026
International Panel on Fissile Materials is now on Substack: fissilematerials.substack.com. Subscribe to receive new posts by email. It is free.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 14/09/2026
Yes and no. It's clear that this was the plan all along. The only surprise is that they admitted it.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 14/09/2026
Or they just knew that flying around 24/7 with nuclear weapons on board is a really stupid idea... It's possible, although I don't have firm confirmation, that Soviet aircraft never landed with a nuclear weapon on board (outside of aborted tests).
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 08/09/2026
As I understand it, there was some activity around the Avangard silo (low-resolution though). And the warnings around Vikulovo looked real.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 08/09/2026
It's a bit of a puzzle. One would expect Russia to notify the US, prompting Cobra Ball flights.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 08/09/2026
I haven't checked Cobra Ball systematically. What's the summary?
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 07/09/2026
Russia apparently planned to launch an ICBM from Dombarovskiy during the 3-5 September window. By all indications it was the Avangard glider. The test appears to have been cancelled. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09..., Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/attempted-...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 30/08/2026
No
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 29/08/2026
There are signs of an upcoming Sarmat launch (from Dombarovskiy) on September 3. We will see...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/08/2026
Launch of mobile Yars missile from Plesetsk - russianforces.org/blog/2026/08.... Also on Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-...
Launch of a Yars ICBM
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 26/08/2026
Launch of a Glonass-K navigation satellite from Plesetsk russianforces.org/blog/2026/08... (also on Substack russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-...). Said to be Glonass-K 19L. NORAD lists it as Cosmos-2619, but no official confirmation from Russia.
Photo of a launch of a Soyuz launcher from Plesetsk
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 23/08/2026
Like "too cheap to meter" or "incredible abundance in ten years." The industries say it's all (largely) under control. Maybe. Who will write AI's Normal Accidents? 2/2
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 23/08/2026
I am wondering if someone has written on the similarities between public reaction to nuclear power and AI. Both seem to be quite complex, capital-intensive technologies pushed by large institutions that have said capital and that tell us they have great promise. 1/2
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/08/2026
The West is trying to address this issue by expanding its own enrichment capacity fissilematerials.org/blog/2026/06...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/08/2026
The uranium enrichment business is complicated. "Russia supplies approximately 44% of global enriched uranium and 20-30% of enriched uranium used in the U.S. and Europe." A good write-up: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
cbc.ca
Russian enriched uranium shipped to Canadian-owned Westinghouse in U.S. | CBC News
While the Russian military attacks Ukraine's power infrastructure, Europe and the U.S. still depend on Russian nuclear fuel to power their electricity grids. Canadian-owned Westinghouse Electric is am...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/08/2026
A good take on floating nuclear power plants bellona.org/news/nuclear...
bellona.org
Floating nuclear power was a Russian curiosity. Now others want to give it a shot - Bellona.org
For years, the Akademik Lomonosov looked like one of the nuclear industry’s more eccentric experiments: two reactors mounted on a barge and towed thousands of kilometers to Pevek, a tiny Russian port ...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 19/08/2026
An update of the Russian early-warning radar network file: russianforces.org/blog/2026/08... (also on Substack russianforces.substack.com/p/russian-ea...). Comments and corrections are welcome.
A Google Earth screenshot showing fans of the Russian early-warning radars
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 14/08/2026
I keep telling people that from this point of view the Cold War was much easier on the Soviet side. No MTV, no scary movies...
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Reposted by Pavel Podvig
Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
81 years ago today, on August 9, 1945, an atomic bomb was dropped upon the city of Nagasaki, Japan, by the United States. This was 3 days after the first atomic attack on Hiroshima.
Nagasaki, bomber's eye view: Close-up view of the head of the mushroom cloud at the Nagasaki explosion, as seen from either the bomber or the observation plane.Nagasaki, distant ground view: Photo of the Nagasaki cloud taken ~15 minutes after the atomic bomb detonation, by Hiromichi Matsuda, stationed at Koyagi-jima Island, some 5 miles / 8 km away.Nagasaki, before and after, aerial views. Nagasaki, ground view, some weeks after the attack.
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Reposted by Pavel Podvig
Faine Greenwood @faineg.com · 31/07/2026
I used to do some work on the ethical use of satellite and drone imagery for aid and disaster response, and it is genuinely hard to express in words what a dangerous, stupid thing Google is doing by making it easy to use GenAI to create faked satellite imagery:
digitaldigging.org
How to plant a nuclear plant in Iran
The question is: what on earth is Google doing?
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Reposted by Pavel Podvig
Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
In 1961, CIA believed the Soviets had 50-100 ICBMs. USAF Intelligence believed it was at least 120, with 300 coming within the year. SAC's Thomas Power though they had 1,000. In reality they had more like 4.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 01/07/2026
Yes, but it comes up in other episodes too. I think Rusk said during the Berlin crisis in 1961 that the US use of nuclear weapons could trigger negative reaction.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 01/07/2026
Interesting parallels: Dulles in 1955: "[it is vital that] we urgently educate our own and world opinion as to the necessity for the tactical use of atomic weapons." Karaganov et al in 2024: "Convinc[e] our World Majority partners of the legitimacy of a possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia"
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Reposted by Pavel Podvig
Lewi Whalberg @anno1540.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Finnish ambassador in russia lays flowers at a destroyed memorial to dead Finnish POW’s in Hatsina, russia.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/05/2026
Happy to contribute to the discussion in Norway about the "advanced deterrence" agreement with France 🙂 (translated from Norwegian). This follows the op-ed published last month, also in Norwegian: russianforces.substack.com/p/the-mirage...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026
Normally, Russia holds exercises of its nuclear forces in October. This one was in May, which is unusual. It included launches of Yars, Sineva, ALCMs, and Kinzhal, Tsirkon, Iskander. Website russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... or Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Launch of a Yars ICBM
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026
The nuclear exercise just carried out by Russia involved Belarus and non-strategic nuclear weapons. Russia said that actual nuclear weapons have been delivered to the combat units. Which is rather unusual. Website russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... or Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Image showing an Iskander ballistic missile loaded on a launcher
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026
Link to the video t.me/vestiru/214906. The list of launches t.me/vestiru/214905. Statements before t.me/vestiru/214900 and after t.me/vestiru/214909 2/2
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026
The strategic part of the nuclear exercise: Zirkon, Kinzhal, Tu-95MS at Ukrainka, Yars from a Krona shelter at Plesetsk, Iskander ballistic missile from Kapustin Yar (reportedly by a Belarusian crew). Sineva launch reported but not shown. 1/2
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026
Yet another video from the non-strategic exercise t.me/mod_russia/6.... It's quite puzzling, though. Like, the trucks are tarp-covered. Really? In general, Russian MoD and 12GUMO are very careful about their role in all this. I wouldn't be surprised if they are not involved
Image of an Iskander missile loaded on TEL
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 19/05/2026
A strategic exercise in May is somewhat unusual - these are normally held in October - but not unprecedented. There was one in May 2014 russianforces.org/blog/2014/05...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 19/05/2026
But no, it is not linked to Putin's visit to China - based on NOTAMs, the original plan was to hold the exercise around 9-11 May. Interesting that there seems to be lack of coordination with Belarus - they started earlier. 2/2
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 19/05/2026
Russia decided to join Belarus in its nuclear exercises... Speaking seriously, MoD announced a major exercise on 19-21 May, which will include ICBMs, submarines, cruise missile launches, non-strategic weapons (yes, including those in Belarus). Seems rather large-scale. Timing is rather unusual. 1/2
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 13/05/2026
US and the Soviet Union usually were getting rid of capabilities that were useless anyway.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 13/05/2026
Are two successful tests enough to put a missile on combat duty? Probably not. On the other hand, these missiles are supposed to sit motionless in silos for tens of years. This they can certainly do. A lot of nuclear deterrence is theater (and not just in Russia).
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 13/05/2026
Probably not enough, but, on the other hand, these missiles are supposed to sit motionless in silos anyway - that they can certainly do.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 12/05/2026
Second successful test launch of Sarmat ICBM. The first one was in April 2022. Deployment to begin this year. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Image shows the launch of Sarmat ICBM
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Reposted by Pavel Podvig
Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 12/05/2026
Putin today promised to deploy Russia's Sarmat ICBM "by the end of this year" — the same pledge he has made at least 10 times since 2021. The only fully successful Sarmat test before today was in April 2022. The missile exploded during a test in Sept 2024. t.me/astrapress/1...
t.me
ASTRA
Путин уже пять лет обещает поставить ядерный «Сармат» на боевое дежурство. Он заявлял об этом как минимум 10 раз с 2021, подсчитала ASTRA В апреле 2021 года Путин в послании Федеральному Собранию за...
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Reposted by Pavel Podvig
The Barents Observer @thebarentsobserver.com · 12/05/2026
“It is the most powerful missile system in the world,” Vladimir Putin said after receiving confirmation that the missile had struck its designated target at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia’s Far East.
thebarentsobserver.com
Nuclear forces test Sarmat missile from Plesetsk
“It is the most powerful missile system in the world,” Vladimir Putin said after receiving confirmation that the missile had struck its designated target at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Penins...
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