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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 30/09/2026

"Is the Dead Hand back? Well, it never went away" - My take on the story about Kosvinsky Kamen/The Dead Hand/Perimeter. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09... Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/is-the-dea...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 27/09/2026

People should take a deep breath about this "Russia reactivated the Dead Hand system" story. Object 1335 is just an element of nuclear command and control. It's never been deactivated. There is every reason to believe it's never been automatic and isn't now. Some links in reply 1/2

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 18/09/2026

Russia launched a Glonass satellite. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09... Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-...

Image of a rocket launched from the Plesetsk site

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 16/09/2026

International Panel on Fissile Materials is now on Substack: fissilematerials.substack.com. Subscribe to receive new posts by email. It is free.

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 07/09/2026

Russia apparently planned to launch an ICBM from Dombarovskiy during the 3-5 September window. By all indications it was the Avangard glider. The test appears to have been cancelled. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09..., Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/attempted-...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/08/2026

Launch of mobile Yars missile from Plesetsk - russianforces.org/blog/2026/08.... Also on Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 26/08/2026

Launch of a Glonass-K navigation satellite from Plesetsk russianforces.org/blog/2026/08... (also on Substack russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-...). Said to be Glonass-K 19L. NORAD lists it as Cosmos-2619, but no official confirmation from Russia.

Photo of a launch of a Soyuz launcher from Plesetsk

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 19/08/2026

An update of the Russian early-warning radar network file: russianforces.org/blog/2026/08... (also on Substack russianforces.substack.com/p/russian-ea...). Comments and corrections are welcome.

A Google Earth screenshot showing fans of the Russian early-warning radars

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/05/2026

Happy to contribute to the discussion in Norway about the "advanced deterrence" agreement with France 🙂 (translated from Norwegian). This follows the op-ed published last month, also in Norwegian: russianforces.substack.com/p/the-mirage...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026

Normally, Russia holds exercises of its nuclear forces in October. This one was in May, which is unusual. It included launches of Yars, Sineva, ALCMs, and Kinzhal, Tsirkon, Iskander. Website russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... or Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026

The nuclear exercise just carried out by Russia involved Belarus and non-strategic nuclear weapons. Russia said that actual nuclear weapons have been delivered to the combat units. Which is rather unusual. Website russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... or Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Image showing an Iskander ballistic missile loaded on a launcher

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026

Link to the video t.me/vestiru/214906. The list of launches t.me/vestiru/214905. Statements before t.me/vestiru/214900 and after t.me/vestiru/214909 2/2

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026

The strategic part of the nuclear exercise: Zirkon, Kinzhal, Tu-95MS at Ukrainka, Yars from a Krona shelter at Plesetsk, Iskander ballistic missile from Kapustin Yar (reportedly by a Belarusian crew). Sineva launch reported but not shown. 1/2

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026

Yet another video from the non-strategic exercise t.me/mod_russia/6.... It's quite puzzling, though. Like, the trucks are tarp-covered. Really? In general, Russian MoD and 12GUMO are very careful about their role in all this. I wouldn't be surprised if they are not involved

Image of an Iskander missile loaded on TEL

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 12/05/2026

Second successful test launch of Sarmat ICBM. The first one was in April 2022. Deployment to begin this year. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 29/04/2026

This, of course, has nothing to do with reality (to put it mildly). Which is better illustrated by the image below.

An image of a tweet with a photo of a 20 January 1991 meeting in Moscow in support of Lithuania.

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/04/2026

"The Mirage of European Nuclear Weapons. There is no scenario in which nuclear weapons can contribute to the security of Europeans." My op-ed in @Forsv_forum "Kjernevåpen for Europa – en illusjon." English version - Web: russianforces.org/podvig/2026/... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Headline in Norwegian: "The Mirage of European Nuclear Weapons. There is no scenario in which nuclear weapons can contribute to the security of Europeans."

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 26/04/2026

Angara launch deploys four military satellites on 23 April 2026. Most likely MKA small optical reconnaissance satellites. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Image of a launch of ANgara space launcher

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 23/04/2026

Launch of multiple military satellites from Plesetsk (on 17 April 2026). Two groups of satellites deployed, mission is unknown, Cosmos designations have not been released. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 03/04/2026

New Meridian-M communication satellite is in orbit russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Image of a space launcher leaving a launch pad.

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/03/2026

Karelia Project 667BDRM/Delta IV submarine is preparing to resume service after a medium overhaul that included refueling (previous one in 2009). 16 Sineva/R-29RM missiles with up to 4 warheads each. (h/t @mrfrantarelli.bsky.social and @thelookout.bsky.social). Links follow 1/2

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 13/03/2026

Uranium enriched to 60% is, of course, already a weapon-grade material in that it does not require further enrichment. A relevant paper from Science & Global Security. Lower enrichments, even HALEU, will work too. And design doesn't have to be implosion. scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/2025...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 11/03/2026

The Program on Science and Global Security invites applications for the Princeton School on Science and Global Security to be held July 27-31, 2026 at the International Center for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy. Applications close on April 17, 2026 sgs.princeton.edu/school2026

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/02/2026

It's only partially a joke that the entire Soviet military industrial complex was a ploy to get access to a legal source of ethanol... (From elib.biblioatom.ru/text/tremaso...)

Quote from a book (in Russian) that describes ethanol quotas in the Soviet military industry

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 14/02/2026

I have a working paper that looks into the history of (some) Soviet and Russian false alarms and nuclear weapons incidents. A short summary (and a link to the full paper) is in the post. Links below. (Image: Fire on the Yekaterinburg submarine in 2011) 1/2

Fire on the Yekaterinburg submarine in December 2011

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 11/02/2026

A data point on decoupling. The Soviet Union did an experiment back in 1976. 36-meter cavity (from another explosion), 10 kt, 15-fold signal reduction. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, p. 477)

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 09/02/2026

Nine ministry of defense satellites launched from Plesetsk on Feb 5. The missions are not yet clear. One, Cosmos-2600, is on sun-synchronous orbit with altitude about 325 km. Others are at about 500 km orbits. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/02... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Launch of Soyuz-2.1b rocket from Plesetsk

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 08/02/2026

Those of you who are lucky to be in Paris, don't miss the chance to see Martin Parr's photos at Jeu de Paume. He is really good.

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 04/02/2026

Russia takes back the commitment to stay within New START limits for one year, but leaves some room for doing it de facto (or together with the US). However, Putin's September initiative seemed only conditioned on the US response after a year, so maybe we'll see it again. mid.ru/ru/press_ser...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 29/01/2026

What to expect when New START expires on 5 February 2026? Russia is likely to stick to its offer to stay within the limits. The US is likely to go for upload, but there are options about when and how. Links to the post below. 1/2

Personnel at Minot AFB demonstrate the capability to return a Minuteman III missile to a three-warhead configuration during a snap exercise in July 2020.

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/01/2026

Back to Greenland and early-warning radars. As it turned out, a few things have changed. All radars got an upgrade to AN/FPS-132 (UEWR). Here is an updated Goole Earth file russianforces.org/US-Early-War.... The image shows Pituffik/Thule. Note that ranges are notional

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 19/01/2026

All eyes on Greenland... Yes, the US has an early-warning radar there. And in many other places too. Here is a Google Earth file with US radar fans russianforces.org/US-Early-War... It's from 2018, but I don't think much has changed. Maybe the name - it's still Thule in the file.

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 15/01/2026

Forty years ago, on 15 January 1986, Mikhail Gorbachev announced a plan to eliminate all nuclear weapons by 2000. Here is the original poster and the English version. More details on the website russianforces.org/blog/2026/01... and Subtack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 14/01/2026

I tried to put together an update of the status of the Russian strategic forces. My estimate is 575 launchers/1530 warheads (can "upload" to about 2100). It appears that R-36M2/SS-18 has been withdrawn. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/01... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 13/01/2026

First Yars missiles deployed at Tatishchevo. Not clear if they are replacing Topol-M deployed there since 1997. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2025/12.... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 12/01/2026

A nice video by DTRA on inspections. They are optimists and still maintain the program to train linguists and inspectors. Don't tell me that verification is hard or even impossible. There is a lot of expertise there. youtu.be/FNtV2-0QFzg?... (Image: R-39 removed for inspection?)

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 01/01/2026

Well, Russian early-warning satellites may not be dead yet. Thanks to @planet4589.bsky.social and @coastal8049.bsky.social for pointing out that it may be too early to write these satellites off. I still think the constellation is not quite well, but we'll see in a few months. Links below 1/

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 29/12/2025

Here is its mean motion. It may be technically alive, but most definitely off station.

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/12/2025

The space segment of the Russian early-warning system is not in good shape. Only one satellite appears to be operational. The image shows mean motion of Cosmos-2563, launched in November 2022. Links to posts below 1/2

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 27/12/2025

Oreshnik in Belarus? Something is definitely happening but there are reasons to be skeptical. I tried to put various bits together russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... Krichev-6 on the map below is the site identified by Jeffrey Lewis' team (seems rather close to the Russian border) 1/2

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 26/12/2025

Missile defense was, of course, a big topic as well. Here is Putin in 2008 (I'd disagree with this logic, but it's a standard argument). What's interesting, the "barbaric" stuff was indeed under development. There is a photo of Status-6/Poseidon from 2009 russianforces.org/blog/2016/04...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 26/12/2025

Here is an interesting exchange between Bush and Putin in 2005. Uranium of Pakistani origin in Iran? And who are "they" who found it (if Iran didn't tell the IAEA)? nsarchive.gwu.edu/sites/defaul... (I must say I don't know Iran all that well, so maybe this is not something new at all)

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 18/12/2025

Deployment of Yars missiles in Kozelsk completed russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... The decision to keep silos for Yars was made in 2008, first two missiles deployed in 2014. The total number of Yars missiles in Kozelsk silos is now 30. Post on Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/deployment...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 16/12/2025

Missile defense works perfectly ... against missiles that don't exist. Documents from the Katayev archive show how the Soviet Union concluded that it can come up with missile designs to defeat SDI. I'm sure it will be the same with the Golden Dome. Links to full posts below 1/2

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 16/12/2025

In early December Russia released NOTAMs for the 3-7 December window covering Plesetsk and Kura. By all indications it was a Yars launch. The test was either cancelled or postponed - NOTAMs were cancelled on 2 December (h/t @thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 07/12/2025

Knyaz Pozharsky submarine was accepted for service in July 2025, but it's not clear if it test-launched its missile, Bulava. NOTAMs suggest that the launch was planned (h/t @m514ever.bsky.social) and it's likely it was scrubbed. But hard to say this with certainty. Links below. 1/

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/11/2025

By all indications, the event in Yasnyy/Dombarovskiy was a failed Sarmat test (links to the full post below). So much for the promise to deploy the first Sarmat in 2025. I wouldn't overdramatize this - stuff happens. And it's not like Russia needs Sarmat. 1/

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/11/2025

Full video of the launch t.me/militaryruss.... Colleagues are positive it's SS-18 or Sarmat (they are quite similar). My guess is that Sarmat is more likely. A launch from Yasnyy logical after last year failure in Plesetsk. As for SS-18, it hasn't been tested for a while (2014?) so why do it now?

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/11/2025

Something happened in Yasnyy/Dombarovskiy. There is also a video and some NOTAMs t.me/militaryruss.... Looks like a failed ICBM launch. The color of this cloud doesn't look good. Not clear if it's Sarmat. There are other options: SS-18 or SS-19. Wait for more information.

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 27/11/2025

Apparently, it's the first document of this kind in quite a while (since 2005?). Here is the link www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/w...

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