Sign in

Ronan Mainprize

@ronanmainprize.bsky.social
790 followers 499 following 34 posts

Ax:son Johnson Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for Statecraft and Strategic Communication Research on intelligence, statecraft, and strategy • Writing a book on Lyndon Johnson, the CIA, and the Global Cold War • University of Warwick PhD

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
William D. James @wdjames.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
How are America's core allies in Europe & the Indo-Pacific responding to the oscillations in its foreign policy at a time of rising great power competition? I offer an answer in a new article for @iajournal.bsky.social, focusing on Australia, Japan, Poland & the UK. doi.org/10.1093/ia/i...
02210
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Despite intelligence dominance in the war with Iran, events suggest the US intelligence community is having little influence on White House decision-making. Read the latest RUSI Commentary by Dan Lomas (@sandbaggerone.bsky.social) and @mtsavill.bsky.social.
rusi.org
Missing Intelligence: The Trump Administration, Iran and the US Intelligence Community
Despite intelligence dominance in the war with Iran, events suggest the US intelligence community is having little influence on White House decision-making.
64214
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
William Hurst @wjhurst.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/44...
linkedin.com
University of Cambridge hiring Postdoctoral Research Associate x 3 (Fixed Term) in Cambridge, England, United Kingdom | LinkedIn
Posted 11:50:13 AM. The Centre for Geopolitics (CfG), part of the Centre for Research in the Arts, Social Sciences and…See this and similar jobs on LinkedIn.
042
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
In this video commentary @lmhurel.bsky.social and Lewis Sage-Passant ( @encyclopediageopolitica.com) discuss the role of private cyber companies in a time when countries increasingly depend on digital infrastructure. Watch the full discussion: bit.ly/4u4OtBe
042
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Melanie Brand @melaniebrand.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
I’m excited to share that my forthcoming book now has a website and a publication date! You can find out more and even pre-order here: press.georgetown.edu/Book/Blind-T...
press.georgetown.edu
Blind Trust
042
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Sophie Duroy @sophieduroy.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
A roundtable on my book is now out in @intnatsecjournal.bsky.social Grateful for the thoughtful and generous engagements. A great interdisciplinary exchange on law, intelligence, and security, permitted by @kcsi.uk's Polly Corrigan Book Prize. doi.org/10.1080/0268... @elgarpublishing.bsky.social
098
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Intelligence and National Security @intnatsecjournal.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Available online now - a fantastic roundtable on The Polly Corrigan Book Prize Winner 2024, The Regulation of Intelligence Activities under International Law, by Sophie Duroy. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
The Polly Corrigan Book Prize Winner 2024, The Regulation of Intelligence Activities under International Law
Published in Intelligence and National Security (Ahead of Print, 2026)
085
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Samuël Kruizinga @samuelkruizinga.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Vacancy for a three-year post-doc position at the Universiteit van Amsterdam! This postdoc position, part of the European Research Council (ERC)-sponsored 𝐁𝐋𝐎𝐂𝐊𝐀𝐃𝐄 project, seeks to understand the long legacies of blockades on the post-war order.
12829
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism @jpict.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
🔊 📖 We are delighted to share @ronanmainprize.bsky.social's review of @jrogg.bsky.social's 'The Spy and the State.' Mainprize argues that 'Rogg's book will likely become a key reference for the spy, the state, and the scholar.' 📖 Read the review here ➡️ doi.org/10.1080/1833...
032
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Jack Dickens @jackfdickens.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
What does the US-Iran conflict tell us about American power in the Middle East and beyond? Make sure to read this excellent article by Ronan to find out:
012
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Engelsberg Ideas @engelsbergideas.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Why the US remains a major Middle Eastern power | @ronanmainprize.bsky.social engelsbergideas.com/notebook/why...
engelsbergideas.com
Why the US remains a major Middle Eastern power
Despite talk of US decline, the war in the Middle East shows that American power has not dwindled as much as some have claimed. It may yet prove crucial in resolving the region's crises.
045
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
The Society for Intelligence History @socintelhist.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Today is the final day for submissions for the SIH Annual Conference, held at King's College London this October. @kcsi.uk Submit proposals to: SIH2026Conf@gmail.com View the full CFP at intelligencehistory.org
031
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
The Society for Intelligence History @socintelhist.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
In recognition of CSIS’s 40th Anniversary, SIH is proud to announce a C$3,400 travel award for Canadian students researching Canadian intelligence. To be considered, note this in your submission. If already applied, email to confirm candidacy. Submit to SIH2026Conf@gmail.com by March 23 @kcsi.uk
In recognition of CSIS’s 40th Anniversary, SIH is proud to announce a C$3,400 travel award for Canadian students researching Canadian intelligence.
036
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
The Society for Intelligence History @socintelhist.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
This just in: We've just received some intel — we can now offer an excellent opportunity for a Canadian student, which means we are extending the submission deadline! Check back here for more info soon. Submit proposals to SIH2026Conf@gmail.com by March 23 @kcsi.uk #SIHConference2026
033
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Dr Matthew Hefler @matthefler.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
The Ax:son Johnson Institute for Statecraft and Diplomacy’s #Intelligence and #Security Digital Seminar Series is in full swing! 💥 Our stellar lineup continues 10 March with Professor Richard J. Aldrich 🇬🇧 🇸🇪 For detals on our forthcoming speakers and to register: www.hhs.se/en/research/...
hhs.se
Upcoming Seminars - hhs.se - Stockholm School of Economics
The AJI Intelligence and Security Programme Digital Seminar is a monthly gathering dedicated to cutting-edge intelligence research and analysis.
033
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Institute for Military History (IMH) @mhafhs.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Dear Friends, Please find in the link below the IMH International Seminar Series programme for the Spring Term 2026. Zoom links to follow, but for now please put these dates in your diary. We look forward to seeing you in person or online. www.linkedin.com/posts/instit... 🗃️ #MilHist #Skystorians
linkedin.com
#internationalisation | Institute of Military History (IMH), Swedish Defence University (FHS)
Dear Friends, Please find below the IMH International Seminar Series for the Spring Term 2026. Zoom links to follow in due course, but for now please put these dates in your diary. We look forward to ...
054
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Engelsberg Ideas @engelsbergideas.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Unlocking new hydrogen fuel technologies could unleash a transformation in warfare as profound as any witnessed over the past five centuries, with far-reaching strategic implications for NATO and the war in Ukraine. Hydrogen warfare | Mara Balasa engelsbergideas.com/notebook/hyd...
engelsbergideas.com
Hydrogen warfare
Unlocking new hydrogen fuel technologies could unleash a transformation in warfare as profound as any witnessed over the past five centuries, with far-reaching strategic implications for NATO and the ...
022
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Jeff Rogg @jrogg.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
Operation Absolute Resolve was a resounding success for American intelligence. But the real test of resolve is just beginning… Some thoughts on how US intelligence can help stabilize post-Maduro Venezuela:
011
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
King's Centre for the Study of Intelligence (KCSI) @kcsi.uk · 08/01/2026
📄 Call for papers 🙌🏼 King's Centre for the Study of Intelligence (KCSI) is delighted to partner with the Society for Intelligence History (SIH) to host the SIH Annual Conference at King's College London on October 11-13, 2026. @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social @socintelhist.bsky.social (1/8)
1168
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Dr. Dan Lomas @sandbaggerone.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
📚 My review of Mark Lowenthal's excellent study of the US intelligence community, Vigilance Is Not Enough, is available in the @iajournal.bsky.social journal. A comprehensive study of the the development of US intelligence - well worth a read. 🔗 academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...
0156
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Engelsberg Ideas @engelsbergideas.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
Agent-running is all about people. The safety of agents – who often treat their case officers as confessional, priest-like figures – is paramount. The art of agent-running | @mpolymer1.bsky.social engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the...
engelsbergideas.com
The art of agent-running
Agent-running is all about people. The safety of agents – who often treat their case officers as confessional, priest-like figures – is paramount.
0125
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
The Society for Intelligence History @socintelhist.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
𝗖𝗙𝗣: Join the 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗲𝘁𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗛𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆’s 2026 conference, hosted at King’s College London with the 𝗞𝗶𝗻𝗴’𝘀 𝗖𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗱𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 kcsi.uk and the 𝗗𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗪𝗮𝗿 𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗱𝗶𝗲𝘀 @warstudieskcl.bsky.social 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 15, send to: SIH2026Conf@gmail.com www.intelligencehistory.org
21110
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Ryan Evans @ryanevans.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
A ten-part thread on misreading Trump: A number of thoughtful observers argued Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. From the outset I argued that he would on the podcast and in private conversation.
17526
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
petercgrace.bsky.social @petercgrace.bsky.social · 21/12/2025
“Arrestingly well-researched and rich in biographical detail, this remarkable book reveals that America’s top spies believed in social science and hoped universities could rescue the early CIA from intelligence failure.” —Richard Aldrich, author of GCHQ: The Uncensored Story.
173
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
I have a new piece with The Guardian where I look into the history of aerial confrontations going back to the Cold War. I argue that intruding Russian aircraft must be shot down as a prophylactic measure. There will not be a nuclear war. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Russia’s provocations are menacing Nato. The cold war shows how it needs to respond | Sergey Radchenko
Despite the cost of shooting down fighter jets and drones, small skirmishes remind both sides of the dangers of escalation, says academic Sergey Radchenko
411742
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 08/09/2025
“Companies in the sector have raised €2.4bn since the start of 2022 including €1.4bn in the first seven months of this year alone, up from just €30mn in 2020 and €150mn in 2021” on.ft.com/3VJiU0d
on.ft.com
Europe’s defence tech start-ups attract investment surge
Russia’s war in Ukraine and fears over US security relationship drive wave of VC funding
26225
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Engelsberg Ideas @engelsbergideas.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Josephine Baker’s secret war | @matthefler.bsky.social engelsbergideas.com/portraits/jo...
engelsbergideas.com
Josephine Baker's secret war
The singer-turned-spy Josephine Baker played a key, and hitherto unacknowledged, role during the Second World War in the secret contest between Britain and France in the Middle East.
065
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Engelsberg Ideas @engelsbergideas.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
The man who brought Sweden in from the cold | Rikard Westerberg engelsbergideas.com/portraits/th...
engelsbergideas.com
The man who brought Sweden in from the cold
During the first two decades of the Cold War, a former university librarian, Thede Palm, led Sweden’s military intelligence. His disregard for his country's official policy of non-alignment helped mak...
011
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Marc Polymeropoulos @mpolymer1.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Must read from General Hayden and David Gioe www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
Trump Is Breaking American Intelligence
“Speak plainly!” Russian President Vladimir Putin snapped at his foreign intelligence chief, Sergei Naryshkin, at a televised security council meeting on the eve of his shambolic full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Naryshkin was visibly nervous. Once he had finally stammered out his support for recognizing the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states—the words Putin was waiting for—he was abruptly told to sit down, like an unprepared pupil flubbing an oral exam.
0307
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Dr Matthew Hefler @matthefler.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
Glad speaking with @svenskadagbladet1.bsky.social on US intelligence on Iran and how to consider the public disputes around assessments 🇺🇸 Though hard to guauge from outside, recent events remind us to beware politicization of intelligence or secret services 🌍 English 👇 www.svd.se/a/kwoBJX/exp...
svd.se
Expert: Underrättelser om Iran har blivit politik
De motstridiga uppgifterna om bombningen av Iran tyder enligt spioneriexperten Matthew Hefler på att underrättelse i USA håller på att bli politik.
142
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Clément Renault @clementrenault.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
🚨📚 New Publication - The #Intelligence Behind the Strike: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program? 🇮🇱🇮🇷 in @thecipherbrief.bsky.social www.thecipherbrief.com/intelligence...
thecipherbrief.com
The Intelligence Behind the Strike: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program?
OPINION — On June 13, 2025, just after midnight, Israel launched a military operation against Iran, citing an urgent need to halt Tehran’s march toward nuclear weapons capability. Prime Minister Benja...
021
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Dr Matthew Hefler @matthefler.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
Thanks to Sweden’s national TV network @svtnyheter.bsky.social for getting my reaction to 🇸🇪's recent intelligence review by Carl Bildt 🌍 I said that a new foreign intelligence agency will take time and must reflect Sweden's security needs and "intelligence culture" 🛠️ 🇸🇪 www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...
svt.se
Experten om ett ”svenskt CIA”: Verkar vilja gå i den riktningen
”Kan bli betydande förändringar” • Ny svensk underrättelsemyndighet föreslås
083
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Patrick Porter @patporter76.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
Me in @TheCriticMag: David Ben-Gurion believed Israel in its hostile region could never have finality on its terms. It would always have to deter, requiring discipline. Netanyahu's war of temptation on Iran rejects that vision. Decisiveness may elude him. thecritic.co.uk/deterrence-r...
thecritic.co.uk
Deterrence requires discipline | Patrick Porter | The Critic Magazine
To deter, or to destroy? To try to dissuade adversaries from attacking one’s people or interests, or to take the gloves off and try to eliminate them? It’s a question central to Israel’s history…
294
Ronan Mainprize @ronanmainprize.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Stuck in Copenhagen airport all day, but luckily I have some great reading material with me 📚
060
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
What happens when allies don’t see eye to eye on intelligence? warontherocks.com/20...
warontherocks.com
Intelligence, Strategy, and the Israeli-Iranian War - War on the Rocks
States use intelligence to inform their strategic decisions — and to influence their friends. Israel has a long history of passing secret intelligence to
092
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
American intel agencies have assessed that, despite Israel's attack, Iran has not decided to move to a nuclear weapon. That could change, officials said, if the US attacks Fordo or Israel kills the Supreme leader. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/u...
nytimes.com
U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb
1612843
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 18/06/2025
Israel’s secret war inside Iran on.ft.com/44or9UI
on.ft.com
Israel’s secret war inside Iran
Hacked phones, deep-cover agents and miniaturised weapons systems: the covert campaign that preceded Jewish state’s attack
2288
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 18/06/2025
Exclusive: President Trump told senior aides he approved attack plans for Iran, but is holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran will abandon its nuclear program.
on.wsj.com
Trump Privately Approved Attack Plans For Iran But Has Withheld Final Order
The president is hoping that threatening to join Israel’s strikes will lead Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.
183030
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
NEW: In @globeopinion.bsky.social, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and I argue that the US should not become a pawn in the Israel-Iran war www.bostonglobe.com/2025/06/18/o...
bostonglobe.com
US should not become a pawn in the Israel-Iran war - The Boston Globe
Trump should pivot to coercive mediation: making any additional military or intelligence support conditional on Israeli restraint.
26326
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Axios @axios.com · 18/06/2025
SCOOP: Tulsi Gabbard cancels Senate Intel briefing
axios.com
Scoop: Gabbard cancels Senate Intel briefing amid Iran tensions
Gabbard had a principal-level White House commitment, one source familiar with her plans said.
2410037
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Dr Steven Wagner @stevenbwagner.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
My latest BCISS blog post on the Iran Israel war. Was Iran really close to building a bomb? I doubt it, but who knows?! The pretext and cause for war are far less certain than its consequences. intelligencestudiesreview.blog/2025/06/18/s...
intelligencestudiesreview.blog
Signals, Sabotage, and Strategic Collapse: Intelligence and Ambiguity in the Iran-Israel Conflict
The Israeli-Iran war remains in an extremely dangerous phase. Deterrence has collapsed. Although the Israelis have said they expect a two-week campaign, there is no obvious end in sight. Now, Iran’…
043
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Ronan Mainprize @ronanmainprize.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
On ‘64, I’d also add Burr and Richelson’s article in International Security (www.jstor.org/stable/2626706) and a @sarabcastro.bsky.social chapter about assumptions and intelligence on China’s nuclear programme (bokforlagetstolpe.com/en/books/int...).
021
Ronan Mainprize @ronanmainprize.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
I’ve been thinking a lot about Frank Gavin’s ‘Nuclear Statecraft’, in particular ch. 4 on US policy towards China’s nuclear test in ‘64. Provocative for thinking about the risks of nuclear armed rogue states and proliferation in 2025. An analogy to ‘64 perhaps shows a rush to war is unnecessary?
cornellpress.cornell.edu
Nuclear Statecraft by Francis J. Gavin | Paperback | Cornell University Press
We are at a critical juncture in world politics. Nuclear strategy and policy have risen to the top of the global policy agenda, and issues ranging from a nuclear Iran to the global zero movement are.....
261
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
Will China's spy agencies adopt A.I. tools faster than the west? New report by Recorded Future on Chinese intelligence agencies investments in A.I. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/u...
nytimes.com
China’s Spy Agencies Are Investing Heavily in A.I., Researchers Say
911524
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Dr Matthew Hefler @matthefler.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
Podcast alert! 🚨 📻 I had the pleasure of chatting about my collection Intelligence and Contemporary Conflict on "Yukiko and Patrik meet"👇 This book brings together experts on issues of intelligence and security and was produced by the Ax:son Johnson Institute 🌍 open.spotify.com/episode/6VsQ...
open.spotify.com
7. Yukiko och Patrik möter Matthew Hefler
Stolpe Stories · Episode
011
Ronan Mainprize @ronanmainprize.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
With a lot of discussion about the US-Israel alliance in the news, I’m resharing an article I wrote last year for @engelsbergideas.bsky.social on how LBJ and the Cold War 1960s helped establish what became a special relationship 🇺🇸🇮🇱
engelsbergideas.com
How LBJ forged the US-Israel alliance
The special relationship between the United States and Israel was cemented by the support offered by Lyndon B. Johnson throughout the sixties.
155
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 09/06/2025
Ukraine’s drone strike against Russia and Israel’s operations against Hezbollah show how technological advances and good tradecraft can potentially alter the course of wars
buff.ly
Modern Tech and Old-School Spycraft Are Redefining War
Ukraine’s drone strike against Russia’s bomber fleet and Israel’s operations against Hezbollah show how technological advances and good tradecraft can potentially alter the course of wars.
2115
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Why would a country sabotage its own security agencies in wartime? Israel's leadership crisis reveals a troubling global pattern. warontherocks.com/20...
warontherocks.com
Populists vs. Spies in Israel and Beyond - War on the Rocks
Over a year and a half after the Oct. 7 attacks, the Israeli government is embroiled in an unprecedented institutional clash with the nation’s internal
0166
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Engelsberg Ideas @engelsbergideas.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
Donald Trump’s nuclear nightmares | In conversation with Fiona Hill engelsbergideas.com/essays/in-co...
engelsbergideas.com
In conversation with Fiona Hill on Donald Trump’s nuclear nightmares
Fiona Hill, distinguished adviser to several US presidents on foreign affairs, spoke to EI’s Jack Dickens about Donald Trump’s fear of nuclear Armageddon, how this fear has shaped Trump’s worldview, a...
12011