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Clément Renault

@clementrenault.bsky.social
2.5K followers 957 following 87 posts

Senior Research Fellow in Intelligence, War & Strategy @irsem.bsky.social 🕵️🛰️📡 · Visiting Fellow @kcsi.uk · Adjunct Professor at Sciences Po - Paris School of International Affairs (PSIA) 📚 Website: clementrenault.com

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Clément Renault @clementrenault.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
🚨📚 #Publication I have the great pleasure of publishing a new piece in the International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence on the use of AI for intelligence processing, analysis and decision-making in the Russo-Ukrainian war. 🇷🇺🇺🇦 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
AI, intelligence processing, analysis, and decision-making in the Russo-Ukrainian war
The Russo-Ukrainian War is a major empirical case for examining how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping intelligence processing, analysis, and decision-making. Both Ukraine and Russia have de...
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IntelArchive @intelarchive.io · 12/12/2025
New addition Journal article: AI, intelligence processing, analysis, and decision-making in the Russo-Ukrainian war by Clément Renault (published 11-12-2025) doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2025.25965…
doi.org
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War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
A sloppy operation can still succeed if the goal is subversion, not sophistication. (Members Only) Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...
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Clément Renault @clementrenault.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
I had the great pleasure of speaking with the wonderful Nicole Wiley on War on the Rocks’ podcast, The Insider. We spoke in this podcast about the broader evolution of Russia’s intelligence tradecraft and activities in Europe in the context of the war in Ukraine🇷🇺🇺🇦 warontherocks.com/episode/the-...
warontherocks.com
How Russia's Intelligence Tradecraft Has Changed During the Russo-Ukrainian War - War on the Rocks
Clément Renault, a senior research fellow in intelligence, war, and strategy at the French Institute for Strategic Research, joins Nicole on The Insider to dive...
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Clément Renault @clementrenault.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
🚨📚#Publication Held in Paris from October 29 to 31, 2025, the “red hands” trial is the first judicial proceeding in France 🇫🇷 against an alleged network of operatives related to Russian intelligence services 🇷🇺. This piece highlights the key takeaways of the trial. warontherocks.com/2025/11/red-...
warontherocks.com
Red Hands in Paris: A Small Act of Vandalism in a Big Russian Strategy
On the afternoon of May 11, 2024, two men arrived at a modest hotel in Paris. One of them, identifying himself as Mircho Angelov, presented a Bulgarian ID
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The Insider @theins.press · 09/09/2025
Czech, Romanian, and Hungarian special services smash Belarusian espionage network, Moldova’s former counterintelligence chief arrested The Czech MFA is set to expel a Belarusian intelligence officer operating under diplomatic cover. theins.press/en/news/284782
theins.press
Czech, Romanian, and Hungarian special services smash Belarusian espionage network, Moldova’s former counterintelligence chief arrested
The Czech Security and Information Service (BIS) reports that the country’s intelligence agencies, together with their counterparts in Romania and Hungary, have uncovered and dismantled a Belarusian e...
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Luca Trenta @lucatrenta.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
I’m not saying Trump is a Russian asset… www.nytimes.com/2025/09/04/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Administration to End Security Programs Protecting European Allies From Russia
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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 01/09/2025
A plane carrying Ursula von der Leyen was forced to land in Bulgaria using paper maps after suspected Russian GPS jamming disabled all navigation systems at Plovdiv Airport, Financial Times reports. The aircraft circled for an hour before landing manually.
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André Loez & podcast Paroles d’histoire @andreloez.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
Reprise du podcast Paroles d’histoire avec plein de nouvelles parutions passionnantes à partir de lundi 1er septembre ! #StayTuned
Ines Anrich, Filles en conflitd
Michael Lucken, Les occupants 
Arnaud Fossier, Les cathares 
JY Mollier, Panama
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The War Monitor @warmonitor.net · 24/08/2025
If you support a military takeover of U.S. cities, ask yourself this: Who do you think they’ll target next... after they’re done wiping out your rivals? History shows these campaigns don’t end... they expand.
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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 23/08/2025
The Trump administration is increasing the risk of a major intelligence failure, argue David Gioe and @genmhayden.bsky.social. “Brave analysts may no longer be willing to stick their heads above the parapet to provide intelligence that Trump needs to know.”
foreignaffairs.com
Trump Is Breaking American Intelligence
Politicizing the system makes dangerous failures more likely.
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Clément Renault @clementrenault.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
"For decades, American presidents have relied on the expertise of foreign policy professionals to help guide them through tricky negotiations in high-stakes conflicts around the globe. Trump has taken a different approach toward such experts: He’s fired them." www.nytimes.com/2025/08/21/u...
nytimes.com
‘Flying Blind’: Trump Strips Government of Expertise at a High-Stakes Moment
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Anton Gerashchenko @antongerashchenko.bsky.social · 17/08/2025
President Macron: We are talking about an imperialist and revisionist power that is today's Russia, which since 2008 has constantly sought to conquer new territories, has constantly revised international borders, and has never kept its promises of peace and non-aggression.
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Jef Hilsen @jef-hilsen.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
Excellent décryptage sur le renseignement israélien. Merci @clementrenault.bsky.social et @alexjubelin.bsky.social ! J'ai juste été surpris de ne pas voir évoqué le facteur religieux dans les causes de l'échec RENS du 7 octobre. Mais peut-être un biais de ma part de lui donner cette importance ?
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International Affairs @iajournal.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
☀️ The wait is over: our summer reading list 2025 is here! Explore our recommended selection of books, reviewed in International Affairs, to keep you company this summer: medium.com/internationa...
medium.com
The International Affairs summer reading list 2025
There is nothing quite like spending the summer lost within the pages of a great book — or ten. Every year, Book Reviews Editor Mariana…
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Brandon Friedman @brandonfriedman.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
Agree this is shocking, but I find it historically unsurprising. While American democracy had deeper roots and more guardrails than Germany in 1933, the U.S. has been subject to destructive capitalist forces in recent years which have left the Republic only lightly defended. 🧵
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Fred Reibell @fredreibell.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
🎙️🔎 Excellent épisode du podcast #LeCollimateur sur le renseignement israélien. Merci à @clementrenault.bsky.social et @alexjubelin.bsky.social pour ce décryptage très éclairant.
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War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
The year was 1610. The king was killed. The war was called off. The design was never finished. warontherocks.com/20...
warontherocks.com
Toward a New Grand Design? Reviving Sully’s Legacy in European Strategic Thought - War on the Rocks
Editor’s Note: This is part of a running series of essays by Iskander Rehman, entitled “Applied History,” which seeks, through the study of the history of
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🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @militarynewsua.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
❗️Analysts doubt that Trump will impose the promised 100% tariffs on Russia's partners, - NYT In their opinion, the large-scale trade between China and Russia - about $250 billion per year, mainly due to oil - makes such a step unlikely.
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David Monniaux @monniauxd.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
Rappelons à toutes fins utiles à l'ESR français (qui parfois utilise WeTransfer pour du professionnel) qu'il a filesender.renater.fr francetransfert.numerique.gouv.fr/upload et sans doute d'autres services dans les organismes.
filesender.renater.fr
FileSender
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Le Rubicon @lerubicon.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
Pour le début de cette deuxième saison des "Unpopular opinions" du Fil de l'épée en histoire militaire, avec @andreloez.bsky.social‬, @abrgll.bsky.social et @surlechampfr.bsky.social, retour vers Rome avec une première "hot take" d'André. lerubicon.org/collimateur-...
lerubicon.org
Rome [Unpopular Opinions – Le Fil de l’épée #9]
Pour le début de cette deuxième saison des "Unpopular opinions" du Fil de l'épée en histoire militaire, avec @andreloez.bsky.social‬, ‪@abrgll.bsky.social‬ et ‪@surlechampfr.bsky.social‬, retour vers ...
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IntelArchive @intelarchive.io · 12/07/2025
New addition Journal article: Ukrainian Intelligence’s Use of Telegram in Wartime by Peter Schrijver (published 08-07-2025) doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2025.25222…
doi.org
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Alexandre Jubelin @alexjubelin.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
Le sentiment de sécurité (voire les complexes de supériorité) mène généralement à la catastrophe dans les questions militaires, cas d'étude n°3264 avec @clementrenault.bsky.social, sur le renseignement israélien, ses failles et ses prouesses ultérieures.
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Le Rubicon @lerubicon.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
#LeCollimateur se penche aujourd'hui sur le fonctionnement et les dysfonctionnements du renseignement israélien, depuis l'échec lors des attaques du 7 octobre 2023 jusqu'aux démonstrations de puissance de ces derniers mois face au Hezbollah et à l'Iran, avec @clementrenault.bsky.social
lerubicon.org
Le renseignement israélien : de la faillite du 7 Octobre aux triomphes au Liban et en Iran
Le Collimateur se penche aujourd'hui sur le fonctionnement et les dysfonctionnements du renseignement israélien, depuis l'échec lors des attaques du 7 octobre 2023 jusqu'aux démonstrations de puissanc...
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Clément Renault @clementrenault.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
🚨📚 New Publication - The #Intelligence Behind the Strike: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program? 🇮🇱🇮🇷 in @thecipherbrief.bsky.social www.thecipherbrief.com/intelligence...
thecipherbrief.com
The Intelligence Behind the Strike: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program?
OPINION — On June 13, 2025, just after midnight, Israel launched a military operation against Iran, citing an urgent need to halt Tehran’s march toward nuclear weapons capability. Prime Minister Benja...
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Corentin Sellin @corentinsellin.bsky.social · 25/05/2025
La même lancinante observation alors que Kiev est pilonnée de bombes par les drones de la #Russie. Le président D. #Trump fait depuis 5 mois encore et toujours le jeu du seul Vladimir #Poutine et de son agression guerrière perpétuée. Pourquoi? 🧵1/ axios.com/2025/05/24/t...
axios.com
Trump helps Putin move the goalposts on Ukraine
It's hard to imagine Trump berating Putin as he did with Zelensky.
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Clément Renault @clementrenault.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
🚨🎙️Join us (online) on 27 May at 6pm for a new conference on #intelligence with @paulmcgarr.bsky.social As tensions arise between #India and #Pakistan, there is. no better place to be on the 27th to dig into the history of Indian intelligence 🇮🇳 Registration here 👇 www.irsem.fr/agenda/cycle...
irsem.fr
Cycle 2025 de conférence sur le renseignement. Online Conference 5 : Paul McGarr – Spying in South Asia - IRSEM
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Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 19/04/2025
Thinking back to right after Hegseth’s confirmation when MAGA Twitter insisted he would run the Pentagon so much better than Lloyd Austin. www.politico.com/news/2025/04...
politico.com
Pentagon turmoil deepens: Top Hegseth aide leaves post
“There is a complete meltdown in the building,” one official said.
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War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Shashank Joshi interviews Mike for a wide-ranging discussion about the strategic lessons analysts can draw from the Russo-Ukrainian War. warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
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War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Deception has always been part of warfare, but today’s battlefield is shaped by the electromagnetic spectrum. warontherocks.com/2025/04/thin...
warontherocks.com
Thinking Through Deception on the Electromagnetic Spectrum - War on the Rocks
The art of deception, as old as war itself, can garner astonishment when one side’s competence enables it to pull off an audacious plan. Warfighters can
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Wassim NASR @simnasr.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Syrie détails inédits sur les aspects militaires, politiques et stratégiques. Les limites et défis du nouveau pouvoir. Le rôle de la France & les intérêts concordants des acteurs régionaux & internationaux. Au 🎙️@alexjubelin.bsky.social @lerubicon.bsky.social lerubicon.org/collimateur-...
lerubicon.org
Syrie : un pays dans les décombres du régime Assad
Quatre mois après la chute de Bachar Al-Assad, le Collimateur revient sur l'état militaire et sécuritaire de la Syrie, avec Wassim Nasr, spécialiste des mouvements jihadistes et de la Syrie, et journa...
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Stephanie Carvin @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
« On ne peut plus avoir confiance aveuglément dans le renseignement américain. Il faut diversifier nos partenariats et avoir plus de capacités nous-mêmes » - @thomasjuneau.bsky.social www.lapresse.ca/actualites/c...
lapresse.ca
Un Canada sans espions est-il un Canada myope ?
Quand il a préparé son projet de sabbatique au début de l’année 2024, David Morin lui a donné un titre qui paraît aujourd’hui prémonitoire. « Le 51e État ».
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John Sullivan @fbi-sullivan.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Last week, after nearly 17 years on the job, I resigned from the FBI. I saw the threat Donald Trump and Kash Patel are to American safety and security and I couldn’t stand idly by any more. See my full resignation letter below. open.substack.com/pub/fbisulli...
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Alex Blackwell @alexblackwell.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
The Determined Spy: The Turbulent Life and Times of CIA Pioneer Frank Wisner www.amazon.com/dp/0593184424/
amazon.com
The Determined Spy: The Turbulent Life and Times of CIA Pioneer Frank Wisner
The Determined Spy: The Turbulent Life and Times of CIA Pioneer Frank Wisner [Waller, Douglas] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The Determined Spy: The Turbulent Life and Times of CIA Pioneer Frank Wisner
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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 06/04/2025
The Times profiles UK's one (1) ocean surveillance ship and the threats it is supposed to counter. Good: explainer of why Russian subsea activity matters (as in, it's not just cutting comms cables). Bad: we're having the exact same public conversations as in 2015. www.thetimes.com/article/f3cb...
thetimes.com
Revealed: Russia’s secret war in UK waters
Russian sensors trying to track nuclear submarines have been found in a campaign of ‘greyzone’ warfare that also targets our energy and internet. Even oligarchs’ superyachts are in on it
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CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program @erep.csis.org · 05/04/2025
NEW: This week's episode of Russian Roulette breaks down the latest drone and artificial intelligence technologies being employed on the battlefield in Ukraine. Kate Bondar and @sambendett.bsky.social join @msnegovaya.bsky.social and @maxbergmann.bsky.social ⬇️ www.csis.org/podcasts/rus...
csis.org
Drones and AI on the Battlefields of Ukraine with Kate Bondar and Sam Bendett | Russian Roulette | CSIS Podcasts
Maria spoke with Kate Bondar and Sam Bendett about their work on the latest drone and artificial intelligence technologies being employed on the battlefield in Ukraine.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 04/04/2025
The dismissal of Timothy Haugh came just hours after the US president sacked a number of senior National Security Council officials following claims of disloyalty by a far-right activist. www.ft.com/content/0e4d...
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Clément Renault @clementrenault.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
🎤 J’aurai le plaisir le 8 avril à 18h de recevoir dans le cycle de conférence Béatrice Guillaumin pour parler de l’intégration institutionnelle du renseignement 🇫🇷 et analyser par le droit administratif le quotidien des acteurs et de l’appareil de renseignement 🕵️👇 www.irsem.fr/agenda/cycle...
irsem.fr
Cycle de conférence sur le renseignement « L'appareil français de renseignement : une administration ordinaire aux attributs extraordinaires ». En ligne - IRSEM
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Clément Renault @clementrenault.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
🇺🇸🇺🇦Deep dive into US-Ukraine intelligence cooperation 🕵️ "The auditorium basement became what is known as a fusion center, producing intelligence about Russian battlefield positions, movements and intentions. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
The Secret History of America’s Involvement in the Ukraine War
This is the untold story of America’s hidden role in Ukrainian military operations against Russia’s invading armies.
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MKSutherland @mktsutherland.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
To invoke wartime deportation powers, President Trump asserted that Venezuela’s government controls a gang. U.S. intelligence analysts think that is not true. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/u...
nytimes.com
Intelligence Assessment Said to Contradict Trump on Venezuelan Gang (Gift Article)
To invoke wartime deportation powers, President Trump asserted that Venezuela’s government controls a gang. U.S. intelligence analysts think that is not true.
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Franz-Stefan Gady @hoanssolo.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
Interesting piece. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
The Secret History of America’s Involvement in the Ukraine War
This is the untold story of America’s hidden role in Ukrainian military operations against Russia’s invading armies.
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Stéphane Taillat @staillat.bsky.social · 29/03/2025
Merci au @grandcontinent.bsky.social pour l'opportunité de faire un point sur l'action du DOGE (même si je n'aurais pas forcément choisi ce titre). Merci à @joeguiffard.bsky.social pour sa relecture attentive. Un 🧵 1️⃣L'objet de ma recherche: opérationnaliser le concept d'infrastructure
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Clément Renault @clementrenault.bsky.social · 29/03/2025
After his unannounced visit to NSA headquarters on 13 Feb, Musk now going for more HR and budget talks at the CIA, this time again on the invite of John Ratcliffe. www.politico.com/news/2025/03...
politico.com
Musk to visit CIA for ‘government efficiency’ talks
It is the latest spy agency to face the billionaire’s scrutiny.
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Andrew 🎵 #FBPE #FBR #musicproduction ❤️ Facts over ideology ❤️ @musicproduction.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
I wonder how long before they start keeping people in rather than out. yaledailynews.com/blog/2025/03...
yaledailynews.com
Three prominent Yale professors depart for Canadian university, citing Trump fears
History department power couple Timothy Snyder and Marci Shore and philosophy professor Jason Stanley will begin teaching at the University of Toronto’s renowned Munk School in fall 2025.
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Colin Gerard @colingerard.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Pas de changement notable dans l’état de la menace informationnelle du rapport annuel de l’ODNI, si ce n’est de nommer directement des acteurs déjà sanctionnés comme la SDA et ANO Dialog (Doppelgänger), là où le rapport de 2024 faisait de manière indirecte référence aux activités de Storm-1516.
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Clément Renault @clementrenault.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
🇺🇸 L’Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) a publié ce jour, mardi 25 mars, son Annual Threat Assessment (ATA). Comme l’indique son introduction usuelle, « ce rapport reflète les idées conjointes de la communauté du renseignement.” 📚🧵👇 www.dni.gov/index.php/ne...
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Rémi Lung @remilung.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Une anecdote de plus dans l'océan évoqué par @alexjubelin.bsky.social & @clementrenault.bsky.social
lerubicon.org
Comment faire du renseignement avec Donald Trump ?
Le renseignement américain se trouve au cœur de chamboulements profonds avec le mandat de Donald Trump qui ont des répercussions pour tous les services occidentaux, sur lesquels le Collimateur fait le...
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Alexandre Jubelin @alexjubelin.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Voilà, quand on parlait des légères failles dans le maniement des informations classifiées par l'équipe Trump, on a cette histoire absolument lunaire qui nous arrive ce soir.
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