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Raúl Peralta Lozada

@raulpl25.bsky.social
205 followers 832 following 3 posts

Data scientist interested in causal inference, Bayesian statistics and data visualization.

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Reposted by Raúl Peralta Lozada
Polars @pola.rs · 06/10/2026
We just released Polars 2.0. It removed many of our legacy decisions makes the streaming engine our default and promotes SQL to a first class citizen within Polars. pola.rs/posts/releas...
pola.rs
Release of Polars 2.0
DataFrames for the new era
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Armin Ronacher @mitsuhiko.at · 06/10/2026
I wrote a bit about what Codemode actually is and how it works. lucumr.pocoo.org/2026/10/6/co...
lucumr.pocoo.org
What is Codemode
If you just need bash, why do you need codemode?
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Gabriel Peyré @gabrielpeyre.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Inverse optimization seeks to recover the parameters of an optimization problem from observed solutions. When the objective depends linearly on these parameters, the gap loss is convex, yielding a convex formulation. Inverse optimal transport is one example. www.gpeyre.com/blog/2026/10...
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David Duvenaud @davidduvenaud.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The Lighthaven Post-AGI Workshop talks are out! From galaxy-brained theories of convergent morality, to hard-headed discussions of political power, here's a 🧵 of the talks: post-agi.org/talks-berkeley
post-agi.org
The Post-AGI Workshop: Economics, Culture and Governance | San Diego 2025
Join us in San Diego on December 3rd, 2025 to explore post-AGI economics, culture, and governance. Co-located with NeurIPS.
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Armin Ronacher @mitsuhiko.at · 01/10/2026
We released Pi 1.0! earendil.com/posts/pi-1-0/
earendil.com
Pi 1.0 | Earendil
Today we are shipping Pi 1.0, a hardened, minimal, extensible agent harness, alongside Pi Durable, a new experimental substrate for long-running agentic applications.
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marimo @marimo.io · 28/09/2026
marimo now supports @prefix_dev Pixi sandboxes! Share portable notebooks with dependencies beyond Python, including CUDA-enabled @PyTorch, ffmpeg and R. Already using Conda or Pixi? Bring your ecosystem to marimo’s reactive notebooks, with Conda and PyPI requirements saved alongside your code.
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hardmaru @hardmaru.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Our Neuroevolution textbook is finally in print! Free online edition: neuroevolutionbook.com Pre-order: a.co/d/06DpkH9h I am incredibly grateful to my co-authors Sebastian Risi, Yujin Tang, and Risto Miikkulainen for making this happen. Thread:
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Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Big news! 🎉 𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚐𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚕𝚎𝚏𝚏𝚎𝚌𝚝𝚜 1.0.0 for #Rstats is out. It’s a big number and it feels like a big step. I wrote a blog on the challenges of interpreting statistical models, SPEED, cool new features, the future, and a 5 year package development and writing odyssey. arelbundock.com/posts/margin...
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Polars @pola.rs · 26/08/2026
We've released Python Polars 1.44. Some of the highlights: • Schema evolution when writing to Iceberg • Adaptive rate limiting for cloud I/O • Correlated subqueries in SQL Blog post: pola.rs/posts/polars... Full changelog: github.com/pola-rs/pola...
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Charles Margossian @charlesm993.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
📘 Reference manual: mc-stan.org/docs/referen... 📖 Case study: htmlpreview.github.io?https://gith... 📝 Technical details: - arxiv.org/abs/2306.14976 (arXiv '23) - arxiv.org/abs/2004.12550 (NeurIPS'20) 🌎 Open-source code: github.com/stan-dev/math
github.com
math/stan/math/mix/functor/laplace_marginal_density.hpp at develop · stan-dev/math
The Stan Math Library is a C++ template library for automatic differentiation of any order using forward, reverse, and mixed modes. It includes a range of built-in functions for probabilistic mode...
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 18/08/2026
There is now StanCon 2026 Uppsala playlist www.youtube.com/playlist?lis... At the moment talks by @mjskay.com, @aseyboldt.bsky.social, @paulbuerkner.com, @charlesm993.bsky.social are up, and we'll keep uploading more during the week
youtube.com
StanCon 2026 Uppsala - YouTube
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
All four books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - Bayesian Workflow at avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... Links to other three books are in the quoted post 👇 (too many books to fit in one post!)
avehtari.github.io
Bayesian Workflow book: Website – Bayesian Workflow book
Website for the Bayesian Workflow book by Gelman, Vehtari, McElreath, et al. — case studies, code, and exercises in R and Stan.
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ArviZ @arviz.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
ArviZ 1.3 has been released! 🎉 python.arviz.org/en/latest Check out the highlights 👇
python.arviz.org
ArviZ: Exploratory analysis of Bayesian models
Rank ECDF Diagnostic along the posterior’s KDE using plot_rank_dist https://arviz-plots.readthedocs.io/en/stable/api/generated/arviz_plots.plot_rank_dist.html Forest Plot with ESS using plot_forest...
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Gautam Kamath @gautamkamath.com · 10/08/2026
I'm pleased to share our #ICML2026 tutorial on machine unlearning! Presented by Vinith Suriyakumar and myself, it includes a full set of videos recorded and posted to YouTube! Please check it out: unlearning-tutorial.github.io
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Iain Murray @imurray.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Sharing this postdoc opportunity at Imperial to develop and apply machine-learning and structural-bioinformatics methods for protein design, with focus on modern generative approaches such as protein diffusion models and flow-based models.
imperial.ac.uk
Description
Please note that job descriptions are not exhaustive, and you may be asked to take on additional duties that align with the key responsibilities ment...
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 08/08/2026
New blog post in which we discover the secret to immortality: accounting errors. www.the100.ci/2026/08/08/m...
the100.ci
My Immortal Time Bias
Preamble: This shortie is my attempt to come up with an example that makes the problem underlying immortal time bias as obvious as possible.  In Japan, people who reach the age of 100 are handed a co...
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Noah Greifer @noahgreifer.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
I'm so happy to announce version 2.0.0 of my #Rstats package WeightIt is out on CRAN! New features: censoring weights, multilevel propensity scores, improved weights for continuous treatments, bias-reduced ordinal and multinomial models, M-estimation in subgroups Check out the website below!
ngreifer.github.io
Weighting for Covariate Balance in Observational Studies
Generates balancing weights for causal effect estimation in observational studies with binary, multi-category, or continuous point or longitudinal treatments by easing and extending the functionality ...
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Arman Oganisian @stablemarkets.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Cross posting my response to a thread (www.linkedin.com/posts/richar...) about the “hazard of the hazards” on LinkedIn - the original thread was unfairly dismissive of claims that contrasts of hazards are non-causal. I think it’s important to understand such claims fully - so here it goes.
linkedin.com
It is frequently claimed that hazard ratios are somehow “non-causal” or have “inherent selection bias”. I think the associated critique is really about collapsibility, rather than causality or bias… |...
It is frequently claimed that hazard ratios are somehow “non-causal” or have “inherent selection bias”. I think the associated critique is really about collapsibility, rather than causality or bias. (...
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Prefix.dev - the Pixi company @prefix.dev · 30/07/2026
Pixi v0.75.0 now ships with an --offline mode. Install your environments directly from the shared cache, even on the train or plane! 🛫 Find out more here: pixi.prefix.dev/latest/refe...
A terminal window displays the command "pixi update --offline," suggesting functionality for updating in offline mode.
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Demetri @phdemetri.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
More thoughts about the normal prior vs the student's t prior dpananos.github.io/posts/2026-0...
dpananos.github.io
Adaptive Shrinkage and the Student’s t Prior – Demetri Pananos Ph.D
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Aaron Roth @aaroth.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
It was fun giving this tutorial. If you missed it, check out calibration-tutorial.github.io where all of our materials are available, including slides, hundreds of pages of lecture notes, an interactive demo, and an annotated reading list.
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Arman Oganisian @stablemarkets.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Happy to see this paper out. It deals with a practical question in Bayesian causal inference: “𝘈𝘳𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘱𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘺𝘰𝘶'𝘳𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨?” Short answer: you may not be. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
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trevor manz @manzt.sh · 20/07/2026
marimo.io/pair has a fresh landing page and some updates! for the launch, i wrote about why we moved beyond mcp and how we gave the agent @marimo.io itself as a tool through python.
marimo.io
marimo pair — a thinking canvas for you and your agent
Give your agent a marimo notebook. The ease of chat, the rigor of software.
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Marc Lanctot @sharky6000.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I'm delighted to announce the release of OpenSpiel 2.0! ♟️🎲♦️🎉 Structured types for states, observations, and actions, standard trajectories (based on JSON), 19 new games, AlphaZero ported to JAX, Windows PyPI support, language model fine-tuning examples and an MCP server (demo below 🤩👇)! 🧵 1/N
OpenSpiel visual asset
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Sakana AI @sakanaai.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Introducing Sakana Fugu: A full multi-agent orchestration system accessible via a single model API. Our ‘Fugu Ultra’ model matches the performance of Fable and Mythos, delivering frontier capability without the risk of export controls. Try it: sakana.ai/fugu 🐡
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Simon Willison @simon.fedi.simonwillison.net.ap.brid.gy · 14/06/2026
It's now possible to compile Python extensions (C, C++, Rust etc) to WebAssembly and distribute them through PyPI such that Pyodide can install them directly simonwillison.net/2026/Jun/13/publi…
simonwillison.net
Publishing WASM wheels to PyPI for use with Pyodide
The Pyodide 314.0 release announcement (via Hacker News) includes news I’ve been looking forward to for a long time: You can now publish Python packages built for Pyodide (or any …
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Simon Willison @simonwillison.net · 14/06/2026
It's now possible to compile Python extensions (C, C++, Rust etc) to WebAssembly and distribute them through PyPI such that Pyodide can install them directly simonwillison.net/2026/Jun/13/...
simonwillison.net
Publishing WASM wheels to PyPI for use with Pyodide
The Pyodide 314.0 release announcement (via Hacker News) includes news I’ve been looking forward to for a long time: You can now publish Python packages built for Pyodide (or any …
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
You can find a 20% discount code in our Bayesian Workflow book website avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor...
avehtari.github.io
Bayesian Workflow book: Website – Bayesian Workflow book
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 19/05/2026
CmdStan 2.39 has been released! - embedded Laplace approximation - new yule_simon distribution - gamma_lccdf more stable - optimization convergence status in output - length-1 tuples See more at blog.mc-stan.org/2026/05/19/r...
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Jonah Gabry's talk “Bayesian Workflow and the Software That Shapes It” today May 19th 13:00 UTC can be followed online!
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trevor manz @manzt.sh · 12/05/2026
got to talk through more of the engineering behind marimo-pair, writing skills, and interactive visualization. thanks for having me on! www.youtube.com/watch?v=K791...
youtube.com
Pair Programming with AI in Your Python Notebook — with Dr. Trevor Manz
YouTube video by Super Data Science: ML & AI Podcast with Jon Krohn
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Sander Dieleman @sedielem.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
My first blog post in over a year is a deep dive on flow maps🗺️, or how to learn the integral of a diffusion model to enable faster sampling and several other cool tricks. It's the longest one yet👀 Let me know what you think! sander.ai/2026/05/06/f...
sander.ai
Learning the integral of a diffusion model
A deep dive on flow maps.
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Just wrapped up another year of Quant 2, my PhD-level causal inference course. Lots of updates to the literature this year, did an "estimator tournament" as part of an assignment on DID estimators, and included regular in-class pen and paper exercises. Materials here: cyrussamii.com?page_id=4190
cyrussamii.com
[2026 Spring] POLS GA 1251 Quant II – Cyrus Samii
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Skrub @skrub-data.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
✨ Skrub version 0.9.0 has been released ✨ This release adds some advanced features to the Data Ops, the has_dtype() selector, as well as some clarity improvements for the Cleaner and TableReport. Release post: github.com/skrub-data/s...
github.com
Release 0.9.0 · skrub-data/skrub
✨ Skrub version 0.9.0 has been released ✨ Main changes Scorers used by Data Ops can now take additional arguments (like sample weights). By @jeromedockes in #1995 The new methods .skb.find() and ....
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Armin Ronacher @mitsuhiko.at · 26/04/2026
My kids and I built a little game with pi and codex over the weekend and it was a ton of fun. Some rough edges but with a bit of polishing I think getting agentic coding to be kids friendly is within reach. mitsuhiko.github.io/rope-man-game/
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Scientific American @sciam.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
The deep dive on the cocaine salmon paper you didn't know you needed, with the one and only @tomlumperson.bsky.social
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Vincent D. Warmerdam @koaning.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
We're slowing adding features so that you might consider stepping away from powerpoint. Remember: this can connect to your postgres/bigquery/databricks datasets *and* you have sliders/widgets.
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Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
🚨 #RStats and #PyData devs! I'm looking for β testers for this thing I just built: A unified dashboard + orchestrator for code and data quality checks. It has lots of neat features and I'm super eager for feedback and bug reports. Check out the video demo: vincentarelbundock.github.io/scrutin/
A Unified Dashboard and Orchestrator for Quality Checks¶

Unit tests · Data validation · Linting · Spelling

Run every quality check on your project using a single command: unit tests, data validation, linters, spell checkers. Scrutin watches for edits, figures out which checks are affected, and re-runs them in parallel. Drill into a failure to see the expected and actual values, as well as the relevant source code. Use quick keystrokes to fix linting and spelling issues, or to open files in your editor of choice.
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Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
The great @eddelbuettel.com invited me to his STAT447 class at the University of Illinois. If you'd like to hear me speak about the interpretation of statistical models in #RStats, using the {marginaleffects} 📦, check out the video! www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3TX...
youtube.com
STAT 447 (2026) Guest Lecture by Vincent Arel-Bundock
YouTube video by Dirk Eddelbuettel
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sbi - Simulation-based inference @sbi-devs.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
sbi v.0.26.1 is out 🎉. We initially planned this release for January, but then the Grenoble Hackathon and GSoC applications happened. Now we have three new methods, better neural nets, cleaner internals, better docs, and 9 new contributors 🤗. Highlights below 🧵
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marcogorelli.bsky.social @marcogorelli.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
✨ New Narwhals expression: `nw.corr` 👥 Supported in both group-by and window contexts 🌐 Polars, DuckDB, PyArrow, PySpark, pandas...all supported 🗒️ PS. please don't draw conclusions about ice cream sales and drownings from this post
Demo of narwhals.corr
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
I would have preferred to have the "draw the rest of the owl" meme on the cover, but this will do. Seems like it is on schedule, and we'll leave some typos so you know we didn't write it with AI.
cover of the book "Bayesian Workflow" by Gelman, Vehtari, et al. Coming out later this year, in the summer probably.
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ArviZ @arviz.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
ArviZ now has built-in tools for prior & likelihood sensitivity analysis via power-scaling! Instead of fitting multiple models with different priors, you fit once and use importance sampling to approximate the effect of perturbing the prior or likelihood.
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Leland McInnes @lelandmcinnes.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
EVoC is a library designed specifically for fast clustering of high dimensional embedding vectors. It can produce high quality clusters extremely efficiently, and requires little to no hyperparameter tuning. Better clustering than UMAP + HDBSCAN; faster clustering than KMeans.
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marimo @marimo.io · 26/03/2026
Run marimo inside JupyterHub using the marimo Jupyter extension: www.youtube.com/watch?v=fnB...
youtube.com
You can now run marimo from Jupyter too!
Jupyter let's you add custom kernels. So went the extra mile and added one for marimo! You can the full marimo experience in the Jupyter UI which is great ne...
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Gaël Varoquaux @gaelvaroquaux.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
New skrub release ✨️ I'am really excited about the more general ApplyToCols. I've found that it enables me to write very naturally complex data transformations on dataframes, as I combine it with skrub's selectors to choose which columns I apply transformations on. skrub-data.org/stable/refer...
skrub-data.org
ApplyToCols
Gallery examples: Getting Started Hands-On with Column Selection and Transformers
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Statistical Rethinking 2026 is done: 20 new lectures emphasizing logical and critical statistical workflow, from basics of probability theory to causal inference to reliable computation to sensitivity. It's all free, made just for you. Lecture list and links: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
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ArviZ @arviz.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
ArviZ 1.0 is out! We have refactored it to be more modular, flexible & lightweight. For an overview of the changes, check the migration guide. python.arviz.org/en/stable/us...
python.arviz.org
Getting started — ArviZ 1.0.0 documentation
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Sander Dieleman @sedielem.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
In October, I gave a talk at ML in PL in Warsaw: a whirlwind tour of what goes into training image and video generation models at scale. 📺 video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFIT... 🖼️ slides: docs.google.com/presentation...
youtube.com
Sander Dieleman - Diffusion models for image and video generation | ML in PL 2025
YouTube video by ML in PL
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Ben Recht @beenwrekt.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
How much do you need to know about a system to control it?
argmin.net
Small World Models
How much do you need to know about a system to control it?
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