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Paul Gronke

@pgronke.bsky.social
982 followers 116 following 123 posts

Professor, director, gardener, and a few other things. I mainly do elections. Follow my work at EVIC.reed.edu LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/paul-gronke-834…

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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This isn’t complicated. 12/2=6. Even if one “peacock caucus” or “moderate” is replaced, the Portland City Council is still very likely to have 6-6 divides. (The dividing line will just move.) It’s a basic flaw in the design and is why legislatures need to have an odd number of members.
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MIT Election Lab @mitelectionlab.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Data Driven Democracy is our new LinkedIn newsletter! Give us a follow for the latest insights and developments in the field of election science, from our analysis of the trends in 2026's election data to new research in list maintenance procedures and best practices. buff.ly/NNWzvtE
Lab Update
Suscribe to 
Data Driven Democracy 
A new monthly newsletter from the MIT Election Data + Science Team
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All Voting is Local @allvotingislocal.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Election officials nationwide have faced threats, political pressure, and intimidation as we get closer to midterm elections. A bipartisan group of 50 business & civic leaders signed onto a letter standing with election officials against these threats ⤵️ bit.ly/4h2x0pj
bit.ly
Political pressure on election administration has intensified across the country and in Ohio
We affirm every eligible citizen’s right to vote and to have that vote counted; impartial and transparent election administration; the resolution of disputes through established legal processes; and r...
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Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Our paper on citizens' expectations for and evaluations of democratic representation is now out in Representation! Great pleasure working with David Talukder on this paper! www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
The Expectation Gap: Citizens’ Expectations for and Evaluations of Democratic Representation
Concerns about a potential erosion of political support in established democracies have motivated scholars to study the failure of democratic institutions in realising democratic representation. Ye...
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
@epssnet.bsky.social anyone still in Belfast willing to grab a pair of glasses (in a case) that I left at the Crown Pub (Victoria Street) at dinner Saturday night? Called, they are there, but I’m heading back to USA. Can compensate with Reed College swag! DM or email gronkep@reed.edu
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
@epssnet.bsky.social anyone still in Belfast willing to grab a pair of glasses (in a case) that I left at the Crown Pub (Victoria Street) at dinner Saturday night? Called, they are there, but I’m heading back to USA. Can compensate with Reed College swag! DM or email gronkep@reed.edu
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
New, from me: Trump finalized his Schedule F policy, allowing him to remove job protections from career civil servants. The new rule is dishonest and unmoored from reality in its effort to formalize the politicization of the federal government 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/trumps-sch...
donmoynihan.substack.com
Trump's Schedule F Rule Finalized
A bizarro rule formally justifies politicizing public services
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Breaking news: Trump cabinet official learns that POTUS is a narcissist who only cares about himself.
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Changing organizational culture — especially a military one — takes a hell of a lot more work that reassigning a leader and installing another one. The Admin has spent six months hiring thugs and praising them when they terrorize the populace. The only way to deescalate is rewind the whole thing
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Noem is next. She’s cosplayed for the last time.
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
I’m relearning German and while I’ve always known the word Grupenfuhrer, I don’t know the word for sacrificial lamb. Both apply to Bovino.
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Kyle Cheney @kyledcheney.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
JUST IN: In a new lawsuit, Minnesota officials say DHS mishandled evidence from today's crime scene and made "astonishing" law enforcement decisions. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
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Rick Hasen @rickhasen.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Absolutely reprehensible that AG Bondi is offering ICE stand down in exchange for access to voting rolls. Outrageous and disgusting. It shows ICE is in Minneapolis is not for law enforcement purposes. Instead it’s a way to stir up shit in blue states and extort them.
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Attorney General Keith Ellison @ag.state.mn.us · 25/01/2026
Tonight, on behalf of Minnesota law enforcement, I filed a lawsuit against DHS to prevent the destruction of evidence related to the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti. DHS is not above the law, and Alex sure as hell is not beneath it.
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Justin Levitt @justinlevitt.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
I stopped posting the daily reminder, but just in case it’s in need of a refresher: Congressional Republicans can stop this any. time. they. want.
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
Could be a long hot summer
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Pro tip #3 for #spsa2026 There is no event WiFi for @spsanews.bsky.social so have your hotspot ready if your slides are on the web.
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Pro tip #2 #spsa2026 The app you want is “SPSA” and is categorized as “reference” Not “SPSA connect” which is categorized as education!
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Hot funk along with hot plates at Frenchman’s Street for #spsa2026
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
NOLA pro tip for #spsa2026 Fixed fare for cabs from MSY of $36, $18 a person for 2, $15 apiece for 3 or more. Uber and Lyft were showing me fares over $50.
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Reponytt @reponytt.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
openelections/spsa2026 is a new repo by openelections: github.com/openelections/spsa2026 Presentation materials
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Neil Vigdor @gettingviggy.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Austin Peay State University in Tennessee also reinstated Darren Michael, a tenured acting professor whose post about Charlie Kirk’s killing inflamed conservatives. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/u...
nytimes.com
University to Pay $500,000 to Professor It Fired Over Charlie Kirk Post
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
This football game is nuts
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
I want someone to cut prices 500%
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Understand the need to fill space, a reminder that Harris won 68% of the vote in NYC. There were also three deeply flawed contenders. Not underplaying the amazing Mamdani campaign and his talents, but IMO this is a lot more about campaigning (and shitty opponents) than ideology. Time will tell.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
"Dress for the job you want, not the job you have"
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Robert Mackey @robertmackey.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
The Oregon Republican Party tried to help Donald Trump make the case for military intervention in Portland with an image of a fiery protest — but since Portland is calm, they had to fabricate one by merging old photos of police in Ecuador and protesters in Brazil www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
theguardian.com
Republicans post fake image of Oregon protest – using photos of South America
A federal judge had blocked Trump’s request to deploy California national guard to Portland
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social: Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain. Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government. www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
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Nancy Kanwisher @nancykanwisher.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
I am proud of MIT, where our branch of AAUP has voted unanimously to endorse this statement urging MIT leadership and the MIT Corporation to reject the Compact wholesale docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com
Letter Regarding Compact
MIT Chapter of the American Association of University Professors October 6, 2025 Statement on the “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education” MIT has been invited by the federal governmen...
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
@ivelasq3.bsky.social The new book on survey weighting in R is amazing but you may want to reconsider the first section on weighting the ANES (summarized at this post www.r-bloggers.com/2025/08/anes...) I don't think many end users produce "population size" estimates, as the book describes. 1/
r-bloggers.com
ANES 2024 is Out! How to Analyze the Data with R | R-bloggers
Last fall, my co-authors Stephanie Zimmer, Rebecca Powell, and I released Exploring Complex Survey Data Analysis Using R. Earlier this August, we had the joy of teaching a workshop based on the book a...
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Governor Gavin Newsom @governor.ca.gov · 26/08/2025
A glimpse into Trump's make-believe world of "giant water valves" in Northern California…
A fictional giant faucet.
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Brandon Friedman @brandonfriedman.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
JD Vance is suddenly opposed to gerrymandering. Someone tell Greg Abbott.
@JDVance on X: The gerrymander in California is outrageous. Of their 52 congressional districts, 9 of them are Republican. That means 17 percent of their delegation is Republican when Republicans regularly win 40 percent of the vote in that state. 

How can this possibly be allowed?
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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
📣 Mark your calendars: The first-ever EPSS Conference will be held in Belfast, 18–20 June 2026 Organized under our new not-for-profit model. ➡️ epssnet.org/belfast-2026/ More details soon, so watch this space. See you all in Belfast! 🇬🇧☘️
epssnet.org
Belfast 2026 – EPSS
© 2025 – European Political Science CIC
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
The Supreme Court’s “shadow docket” has cast very different shadows depending on which party holds the White House. When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases. For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.
Infographic titled “One Court, Two Standards” compares how the Supreme Court used emergency powers to rule on lower-court injunctions against the Biden and Trump administrations. Two panels show:
	•	Biden Administration: Lower courts blocked policies in 21 cases. All 21 cases are represented by red squares, indicating that 0% of injunctions/TROs were lifted by SCOTUS.
	•	Trump Administration: Lower courts blocked policies in 86 cases. 66 green squares and 20 red squares show that 77% of injunctions/TROs were lifted by SCOTUS.

Key takeaway box below reads:
“Using its ‘shadow docket,’ the Supreme Court granted emergency relief to lift 77% of lower-court injunctions against the Trump administration. It lifted 0% of those against the Biden administration.”

Sources and notes below include: CourtListener data through July 7, 2025; analysis by Adam Bonica.
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Elections & Voting Information Center @electionsvoting.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Today's @electionline.bsky.social Weekly features EVIC Director @pgronke.bsky.social's by-line: "Declining Job Satisfaction Among Local Election Administrators: Survey reveals trend in smallest jurisdictions, but identifying cause is a bigger challenge"w/ findings from EVIC LEO Survey Program.
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FairVote @fairvote.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
NYC just used #RankedChoiceVoting in its city primaries. FairVote CEO Meredith Sumpter explains how RCV delivered more choice, more competition, and better campaigns for NYC voters. 👀
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
This decision to reverse an earlier decision that threw out a grants package is ultimately a good news story. Learning when to lead and when to defer isn't easy. Glad to see the 7 members were willing to admit their error. Now let's see if the lesson sticks. www.wweek.com/news/city/20...
wweek.com
Amid Outcry, City Council Restores Portland Children’s Levy Grants Package
Close to ten BIPOC executive directors of nonprofit organizations testified to the council, railing them for rejecting the funding recommendations.
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Dan Garisto @dangaristo.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
NEW: NSF will be kicked out of their building. Announcement will be made tomorrow by HUD Sec. and Governor of VA. HUD will take over the NSF building over the next two years. NSF staffer: "There is no planning for NSF, no identified future location, appropriation for a new building or a move."
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Derek Willis @dwillis.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Every time I hear about the dangers of electing inexperienced people to be a NYC mayor, I think about how Vincent Impellitteri, an absolute nobody, became acting mayor, lost the primary and then won running as the “Experience Party” candidate: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent...
en.m.wikipedia.org
Vincent R. Impellitteri - Wikipedia
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
POTUS and administration claims about the results of the bombing were nearly a complete fabrication / fantasy/ wishful thinking? I’m shocked!
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Elections & Voting Information Center @electionsvoting.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
We hope all #ElectionGeeks are enjoying the fabulous agenda of #ESRA2025. Our @electionsvoting.bsky.social Director @pgronke.bsky.social is with you in spirit, and our Research Director @paulonabike.bsky.social is onsite.
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
Life must be difficult as an upright biped with no spine.
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Rick Hasen @rickhasen.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
You can see why MARINES are necessary.
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Sad to be missing #esra2025 due to a series of flight delays that would get me there a day late. But there in spirit with the topsiders and pastel shirt I put aside to go to the reception, and the bagels I made for the early morning flight. #electionscience #aesra #esra2025
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Midnight, June 7 is the deadline to comment on the revised Schedule F, Trump's plan to politicize the civil servants by converting them into at-will appointees that can be fired for the mildest pushback against illegal actions. It's easy - here is how: donmoynihan.substack.com/p/last-day-t...
donmoynihan.substack.com
Last day to weigh in on Trump's plan to politicize the civil service
Trump has already shown us how he would use Schedule F powers
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
Judge Richard L. Leon understands the appropriate use of exclamation points to signal his outrage. Starting right on page 1. Fundamental constitutional are no bullshit and can’t be taken away by executive order. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
We don’t need an officer corps of “careerists”? Does the POTUS have even a basic understanding of how we maintain our military?
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