Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 05/10/2026Agree that it distorts incentives but ads are a necessary “tax” for those that want things for “free”. 031
Reposted by Peter Garnry, CFABob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Annual revisions lifted the savings rate level, but the sharp downward trajectory remains. Despite all the noise about AI, the biggest driver of strong US growth over the last 2.5yrs has come from household's spending growing much faster than their incomes. 2217
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 29/09/2026Monzo is planning a broader European launch but it will require more tier 1 capital and more scale. I can see the synergies but as a shareholder I have the same worries as the market. But we have high confidence in David Velez and the management team so for now we believe in their decisions. 020
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 29/09/2026The rumours on Nubank being in early talks about acquiring UK-based Monzo took down the stock price by 10% yesterday. Investors are fearing shareholder dilution, lack of focus and too high premium. On the other hand, Monzo is fast growing a very successful digital bank. 141
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 26/09/2026Incredible downfall for Nike. The most outrageous thing is that it could much more given the bleak sales outlook. The ultimate test of brand strength… 030
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 25/09/2026Det er fuldstændig misforstået, hvis man tror, at en landstræner skal gå ind i et studie og hyggesnakke med kommentatorerne samt acceptere alle kommentarer på spillet. Pilen peger på Peter Møller og DBU. 020
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 25/09/2026En ting er at det sender et signal om en ledelseskultur i ubalance. Men det sender også dønninger ind i truppen og kan forvolde ganske meget skade. Riemers interview efter kampen med David Nielsen og Bo Henriksen udstiller også den manglende autoritet. 120
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 25/09/2026Det danske herrelandshold i fodbold har en massiv ledelseskrise. Det har stået klart længe og ansættelsen af Kent Nielsen var et klart tegn. Du må ikke havne et sted hvor en anfører ventilerer sine følelser i pressen og basalt stiller et ultimatum mod holdets bedste spiller. 140
Reposted by Peter Garnry, CFALuke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Search interest in “Muse” was still higher in September 2009 than it is now (That’s when the band Muse released its amazing “Resistance” album) 3448
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 24/09/2026The AI token deflation wave is the largest ever since in the modern economy. Some will survive this but the ROIC economics will be tough to manage. It will require an insane operational cost focus. Completely opposite modus operandi of the past for hyperscalers. 031
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 23/09/2026Google search is dying. The question is how long it will take. And more importantly, can Google offset search revenue with YouTube, cloud and AI? 051
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 23/09/2026I grove træskolængder så er Novo værdiansat som om, at de vil have negativ vækst og ikke skabe værdi i årene fremoverhvilket er skørt, men markedet er altid hysterisk 😭 010
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 23/09/2026Meta’s Muse is interesting but is it a most. That is the market’s current verdict but Amazon’s rejection says that the path is complicated. Interesting point sequence: Claude Code - software Mythos - cybersecurity Muse - banks The first narrative has often been wrong. Could happen again… 020
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 23/09/2026Menneskeheden kæmper mod en ekstrem dygtig og innovativ fødevarebranche, der er gode til at udvikle vanedannende mad som hjernen ikke kan sige nej til. GLP-1 er vores mad-antivirus. Om Novo vinder eller ej må tiden vise. Men som kineserne ynder at sige om demokratiet: “fremtiden er lang” 😉 110
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 23/09/2026I love when investors talk about this era is exponential across so many dimensions. Sorry to break the party. The economy has always been exponential. What they actually mean is super exponential but the physical world will destroy that dream before it even starts… 020
Reposted by Peter Garnry, CFADare Obasanjo @carnage4life.bsky.social · 19/09/2026From looking at data from OpenRouter, Ramp & Vercel, we can see the AI business model in real time. Anthropic remains the monetization leader, but revenue growth is slowing as customers shift to cheaper models. OpenAI is going the other direction, with usage and spend on its models accelerating. 1262
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 15/09/2026Of course this is the strategy. Any rational person should see this and not believe this extinction nonsense. The paradox is that Trump flips the narrative on the call with Jensen saying it a hoax. My take is that it is all about a giant political battle shaping up… 021
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 14/09/2026Extremely valid point and likely something that could be extended to other domains in our new geopolitical era. 2425
Reposted by Peter Garnry, CFAClaudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Last time the Fed hiked before an election? 2022 midterm under Biden. From 1984 to 2024, the Fed adjusted rates (up or down) within 60 days of an election (43%) as often as in any other 60-day period (45%). 69033
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 11/09/2026Yes, it will be the hall of fame for inside view predictions that were wildly off mark. 000
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 11/09/2026Saudi Arabien er efter sigende i panik og har bedt USA om angreb på houthierne. Saudi Arabiens olieproduktion faldt voldsomt i august til det laveste august produktionsniveau siden 1990. Udviklingen er bestemt ikke positiv for vækst eller makro i almindelighed. 100
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 11/09/2026A correction, it is closer to -19bn in FCF and I excluded working capital changes so the FCF figure is more clean/smooth. 001
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 10/09/2026Exactly. I bet Nvidia is a big player. There is a big CapEx narrative to control. The prepayment saved Oracle against the FCF estimate. Microsoft recently shifted capital leases to operating leases to lower CapEx. See a pattern? 020
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 10/09/2026Yeah because of 11bn prepayment from a customer - will they continueto come indefinitely? And your direct read from the cash flow statement adds back SBC so the true underlying FCF is definitely not -5bn. It is way higher, but the Nvidia central bank made it look better vs estimates 000
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 10/09/2026Another issue is that their supposedly massive increase in operating income does not reflect the true underlying profitability of the new assets. With the massive deflation in token prices and competition from open weight models I don’t see how this is sustainable. Time will tell… 010
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 10/09/2026Management says that despite the change in RPO to 664bn… “there is no incremental impact on its plans to raise capital”. This due to customer prepayments which amounted to ~11bn in the quarter. This is where Nvidia comes into the picture. They help with the financing through circulation of capital 110
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 10/09/2026Oracle earnings 🍿 my takeaways: Oracle NOPAT for the quarter is around 6.2bn with CapEx at 28.5bn leading to negative FCF of just ~22bn in a single quarter. CapEx increased to 28.5bn from 8.5bn a year ago. 251
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 09/09/2026Exactly my thinking. The middle expands again when extremistan in both ends exhausts itself. 010
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 09/09/2026These are inside views. They are rarely the best calibrated predictions. 030
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 08/09/2026I cannot help thinking on the “Pisa Shock” that… Either we are measuring the wrong thing here, or we are indeed measuring the right aptitudes but have poor understanding of the causal drivers delivering the outcomes we want to see through our measurements? Any wise thoughts from educators? 132
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 08/09/2026Jeg så godt nyheden. De hyper ikke sig selv ligeså meget, men de holder skruen i vandet og det er godt for Europa. 000
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 07/09/2026All the accounting policy changes in the AI ecosystem with Microsoft doing the latest reducing capex by 15bn due reclassifying finance leases into operating leases tells you that we are playing a game. But a serious investor reading financial statements will not be fooled… 131
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 05/09/2026Relationer i mange faggrupper er en undervurderet faktor men også behovet for at placere et ansvar. 110
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 02/09/2026So AI datacenter spending and higher bond yields are impacting construction spending ex AI… 020
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 01/09/2026And even more importantly a big jump in amortisation of acquired intangibles. Adjusting for these non-recurring and non-cash flow items things look fine. Orders are growing fast and cybersecurity has entered a wild inflection point. Excited to follow Palo Alto’s performance… 010
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 01/09/2026A lot of volatility in aftermarket trading in Palo Alto post Q3 earnings release. Everything looks good and then you look at the negative operating income for the quarter. But…there are one-time SBC effects from acquisitions and one-off acquisition costs. 130
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 01/09/2026The workers union here in Denmark it should have said… 000
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 01/09/2026Jep. Der har sjældent været mere på spil for Energinets bestyrelsen og ledelse i disse år og vi skal op på en helt anden klinge. 020
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 01/09/2026The sector that is seeing the biggest adoption and impact from AI because of the nature of the work. The chair of the workers union for the finanacial sector sounded the alarm yesterday that the adoption rate is too high. 120
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 01/09/2026Med mindre du kører elbil i Spanien hvor de har fået reduceret gasprisen betydning for prissætningen af el til et noget nær minium i 2026 ☺️ 120
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 31/08/2026The sequence must be, acquire domain knowledge first and then later apply AI to speed up some things. Essentially an effective human-AI feedback loop. 041
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 28/08/2026Seriously a great read from Gorman. I recommend all investors that believed the software is dead narrative to counterbalance that view with an inside perspective rooted in realism. 0104
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 28/08/2026Cyber security events in the UK recently is a crude awakening of the treat from AI on our precious public infrastructure. 020
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 27/08/2026100%, jeg vil jo gerne have et ungt menneske træner kritisk sans og kan forstå hvorfor en model er som den er. Pointen er at man skal udvikle domæneviden og når du har den så kan AI hjælpe dig med at speede ting op og du forstår output qua din domæneviden og kan se når tingene er forkerte… 110
Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 27/08/2026Jeg komme med et konkret eksempel. Vi har en ung person, der gerne vil arbejde for os og vi bad om en værdiansættelsesmodel på et selskab. Vi modtog en overdrevet kompleks model udarbejdet med AI. Jeg ville hellere have haft en model der så grim ud og have fejl fordi så kunne vi diskutere. 120