iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 05/10/2026

Agree that it distorts incentives but ads are a necessary “tax” for those that want things for “free”.

Reposted by Peter Garnry, CFA

Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Annual revisions lifted the savings rate level, but the sharp downward trajectory remains. Despite all the noise about AI, the biggest driver of strong US growth over the last 2.5yrs has come from household's spending growing much faster than their incomes.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 29/09/2026

The rumours on Nubank being in early talks about acquiring UK-based Monzo took down the stock price by 10% yesterday. Investors are fearing shareholder dilution, lack of focus and too high premium. On the other hand, Monzo is fast growing a very successful digital bank.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 26/09/2026

Incredible downfall for Nike. The most outrageous thing is that it could much more given the bleak sales outlook. The ultimate test of brand strength…

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 25/09/2026

Det danske herrelandshold i fodbold har en massiv ledelseskrise. Det har stået klart længe og ansættelsen af Kent Nielsen var et klart tegn. Du må ikke havne et sted hvor en anfører ventilerer sine følelser i pressen og basalt stiller et ultimatum mod holdets bedste spiller.

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Reposted by Peter Garnry, CFA

Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Search interest in “Muse” was still higher in September 2009 than it is now (That’s when the band Muse released its amazing “Resistance” album)

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 24/09/2026

The AI token deflation wave is the largest ever since in the modern economy. Some will survive this but the ROIC economics will be tough to manage. It will require an insane operational cost focus. Completely opposite modus operandi of the past for hyperscalers.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 23/09/2026

Google search is dying. The question is how long it will take. And more importantly, can Google offset search revenue with YouTube, cloud and AI?

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 23/09/2026

Meta’s Muse is interesting but is it a most. That is the market’s current verdict but Amazon’s rejection says that the path is complicated. Interesting point sequence: Claude Code - software Mythos - cybersecurity Muse - banks The first narrative has often been wrong. Could happen again…

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 23/09/2026

I love when investors talk about this era is exponential across so many dimensions. Sorry to break the party. The economy has always been exponential. What they actually mean is super exponential but the physical world will destroy that dream before it even starts…

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Reposted by Peter Garnry, CFA

Dare Obasanjo @carnage4life.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

From looking at data from OpenRouter, Ramp & Vercel, we can see the AI business model in real time. Anthropic remains the monetization leader, but revenue growth is slowing as customers shift to cheaper models. OpenAI is going the other direction, with usage and spend on its models accelerating.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 15/09/2026

Of course this is the strategy. Any rational person should see this and not believe this extinction nonsense. The paradox is that Trump flips the narrative on the call with Jensen saying it a hoax. My take is that it is all about a giant political battle shaping up…

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 14/09/2026

Extremely valid point and likely something that could be extended to other domains in our new geopolitical era.

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Reposted by Peter Garnry, CFA

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Last time the Fed hiked before an election? 2022 midterm under Biden. From 1984 to 2024, the Fed adjusted rates (up or down) within 60 days of an election (43%) as often as in any other 60-day period (45%).

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 10/09/2026

Oracle earnings 🍿 my takeaways: Oracle NOPAT for the quarter is around 6.2bn with CapEx at 28.5bn leading to negative FCF of just ~22bn in a single quarter. CapEx increased to 28.5bn from 8.5bn a year ago.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 09/09/2026

These are inside views. They are rarely the best calibrated predictions.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 08/09/2026

I cannot help thinking on the “Pisa Shock” that… Either we are measuring the wrong thing here, or we are indeed measuring the right aptitudes but have poor understanding of the causal drivers delivering the outcomes we want to see through our measurements? Any wise thoughts from educators?

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 07/09/2026

All the accounting policy changes in the AI ecosystem with Microsoft doing the latest reducing capex by 15bn due reclassifying finance leases into operating leases tells you that we are playing a game. But a serious investor reading financial statements will not be fooled…

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 02/09/2026

So AI datacenter spending and higher bond yields are impacting construction spending ex AI…

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 01/09/2026

A lot of volatility in aftermarket trading in Palo Alto post Q3 earnings release. Everything looks good and then you look at the negative operating income for the quarter. But…there are one-time SBC effects from acquisitions and one-off acquisition costs.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 01/09/2026

The sector that is seeing the biggest adoption and impact from AI because of the nature of the work. The chair of the workers union for the finanacial sector sounded the alarm yesterday that the adoption rate is too high.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 31/08/2026

The sequence must be, acquire domain knowledge first and then later apply AI to speed up some things. Essentially an effective human-AI feedback loop.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 28/08/2026

Seriously a great read from Gorman. I recommend all investors that believed the software is dead narrative to counterbalance that view with an inside perspective rooted in realism.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 28/08/2026

Cyber security events in the UK recently is a crude awakening of the treat from AI on our precious public infrastructure.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 27/08/2026

The thing is that Bill Gates and many other entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley have made horrible predictions in the past. The base rate is still everything will be fine unless this is the Turkey getting slaughtered moment in the Taleb sense.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 26/08/2026

It was such a wonderful technology I’m sure it would have transformed just one industry by now but I still fail to see the good use case…

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 26/08/2026

Vi har undervurderet “attention økonomien”. Dens incitament struktur gør det svært at træffe gode valg, specielt hvis du lever eller har brug for attention.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 26/08/2026

Patience has always been a key skills to develop. In a world where our attention span constantly goes down, patience will be a huge edge in many parts of life including investing.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 19/08/2026

Another cross ownership deal in US technology. It is really the American version of “Keiretsu”.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 19/08/2026

Today’s intervention is a very telling signal about the underlying fragility in US assets due to rising bond yields.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 15/08/2026

Wow, it is literally less than three months ago they were crowned as the ultimate powerhouse on Wall Street.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 14/08/2026

Probably one of the easiest low hanging fruits for creating a net positive welfare gain from a policy.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 14/08/2026

I had a thought the other day. I was listening to a podcast featuring a chief portfolio manager from one of the more successful equity funds in the US the past 20 years. They were up to 200 people in the investment team grouped in sectors etc. They did a lot of management meetings and other things.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 14/08/2026

In the past it was said that investors should just go with the flow of central banks. In the ne wgreat power competition age fiscal dominance means investors must look at the direction of governments.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 07/08/2026

When some say the market has become cheaper this year on forward earnings, I want to point out that 12-month forward consensus EPS has historically come with a 15% prediction error. This prediction error cut both ways so in a market downturn estimates are too pessimistic and vice versa.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 05/08/2026

Nike on EV/Sales ratio has approached levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis. Revenue has completely diverged from its long-term trend and margins are significantly below the long-term average. I know they angered the resellers with their big bet on DTC. But is it really that bad?

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 05/08/2026

Given how I understand Hassabis’ value compass this could be a sign that he thinks the current vector of AI is sucking away resources from more important scientific breakthroughs with AI. The ones that solve the very biggest challenges.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 03/08/2026

Hyperscalers are on a tear today. Investors are willing to pay EV/Sales NTM 8.1x for Alphabet today which is a level on par with around 2007 when growth rates and the runway were significantly more attractive.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 03/08/2026

AI CapEx will not roll over. The lifetime of these AI chips means that this CapEx cycle has a shorter round trip than say building out railroads or some other previous infrastructure. The million dollar question becomes the ROIC on all these new investments.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 03/08/2026

Probably the biggest pivot in US business in living memory.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 29/07/2026

As I have said before, the massive success in software/digitalisation is actually ressource curse for the US economy that suffers from poor productivity and competitiveness.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 29/07/2026

We own Ferrari shares in our portfolio and we had several discussions about Luce when it was criticised. Our take was that the critique from primarily older loyal customers showed that Luce was speaking to the right potential customer group. The new wealthy generation that wants tech.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 29/07/2026

I’m sure this dynamic in the Great Power Competition has missed on some VC people in Silicon Valley when they make up their TAM. SpaceX TAM in their prospectus is 100% a victim of overestimating market sizes for mega caps under this dynamic.

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Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 28/07/2026

And this excludes gambling in junk and loss-making momentum stocks

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