iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 24/04/2026

I chart highlighting this phenomenon that price volatility is often significant relative to volatility in fundamentals. Myers has done some interesting research on this topic. We observe the same phenomenon in our portfolio and the chart highlights Visa.

000

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 24/04/2026

Software vs semiconductors since 1999 in one chart. Epic

000

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 24/04/2026

New Substack piece out covering SaaS/software and the violent collapse vs hardware (semiconductors) we have observed. open.substack.com/pub/petergar...

262

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 19/02/2026

The word "uncertainty" comes up a lot, but is the world really that more uncertain than the 100-year pandemic and the great financial crisis?

131

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 17/12/2025

Oracle's FCF chart is still one for the ages. The huge remaining performance obligation figure is all depended on credit available for AI and equity funding for OpenAI. You cannot blame Oracle's management for being risk adverse...

051

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 28/11/2025

Here is another good one on Intel. The growth dynamics are completely destroyed at this company.

020

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 28/11/2025

It always find it interesting to plot a company’s revenue on a log scale. You clearly see patterns of growth rates changing. In the case of Tesla it is quite remarkable… $TSLA

391

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 20/11/2025

I think I will print Oracle’s FCF over the past 30 years, frame it, and then put it up on the wall of our office. It really is one for the ages…

170

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 20/11/2025

An early Christmas present arrived today. Really looking forward to read the book “The Compounders”.

030

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 16/06/2025

Last week Oracle reported CapEx for the previous fiscal quarter at $9.1bn compared to just $414mn four years ago. CapEx in percentage of sales has exploded to almost 60% which is twice the level of the other hyperscalers. Investment levels at this rate comes with high risk for shareholders. #stocks

000

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 02/05/2025

Sell-side analysts have only shifted Tesla's revenue expectations down reflecting the Q1 impact, but not changed the long-term growth rate with revenue growth expected >20% annualised from to 2025 to 2028. In order words, analysts believe there has been no permanent damage to growth rates.

120

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 02/05/2025

While the high-frequency indicators in Dallas WEI show hard data are not impacted yet (it will come) from tariffs, an export economy such as Germany has seen a visible impact from Trump policies over the past four weeks. Potentially a good indicators on what will soon happen to the US economy.

020

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 26/04/2025

Starting 17 days ago Meta's platforms are swarmed with fake profiles and disgusting ad campaigns using my name and photos. As Martin Wolfs says in the FT article you are playing 'whack-a-mole" with Meta. The company is not upholding GDPR or the EU's DSA directives. (2/n)

100

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 04/03/2025

Eutelsat, French-based satellite communications company, is in talks with Ukraine to replace Starlink. New geopolitical security interest asset. It doesn’t matter that it is a bit more expensive than SpaceX. Europe will now prioritise its own technology. #equities

000

Peter Garnry, CFA @petergarnry.gesdacapital.com · 03/03/2025

I did a presentation for business leaders in Denmark last week. One of my slides naturally had perspectives on geopolitics and defence stocks. Under the assumption of EU defence spending going to 4.5% of GDP and nominal GDP growing 3% p.a. then defence spending will grow 13% p.a. until 2034. 2/n

100