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Paul L 🇨🇦

@paullmma.bsky.social
370 followers 238 following 193 posts

Ontario, Canada based nursing student. Citizen scientist. Variant tracker.

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Reposted by Paul L 🇨🇦
David Elfstrom 🍁 @davidelfstrom.bsky.social · 20h
Yeah, that coughing and "something going around" discussions is COVID. That nice low summer is over. Toronto's wastewater viral load is showing a consistent upward trend in COVID-19 and nearly zero levels of influenza A & B and RSV. wwater.ca/Ontario/Toro...
Most recent wastewater virus levels for Toronto, with date ending week ending September 27, 2026, showing a clear upward trend in COVID-19 and minimal for influenza and RSV.
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Witchy Annie 🏳️‍⚧️ 🔞 @possmom.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
"JK Rowling is already a billionaire and everyone already knows about Harry Potter, what's the point of boycotting?" Nobody thinks boycotting will bankrupt her. We know she's gonna die rich. We're just asking you to show a shred of solidarity with trans folk. Absolute low bar bare minimum shit.
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PacoOnPause @pacoonpause.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
It's 2026 and doctors are recommending handwashing as a way to prevent inhaling airborne viruses.
three panel comic:

panel 1: guy on bike with stick in his hand and the caption says: I'm a doctor

panel 2: guy on bike putting stick into his wheel spokes with the caption: Protect yourself from airborne viruses with lasting health consequences by washing your hands 

panel 3: guy on ground in pain holding his knee because his bike crashed with the caption: Why is my ER full
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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Since Aug 31, 12.8% (10/78) airport surveillance seqs from international travelers to the US have been PJ.2.1. 45% (9/20) from Latin American travelers in that period are PJ.2.1: 4 from Cuba & 1 each from Chile, Colombia, the DR, Ecuador, & Guatemala. PJ.2.1 is the fastest variant in the world now.
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Polling Canada @canadianpolling.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Support For Starting A Formal Process To Join The European Union 🇪🇺 🔵 Support: 53% 🟡 Oppose: 32% www.canadianpolling.com/p/canadians-...
canadianpolling.com
Canadians Are Opening the Door to China and Europe
From Carney’s tariff approval to rising EU support, the polling points to a Canada reconsidering its relationship with the US
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🇨🇦Joe Vipond🇨🇦 @jvipondmd.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
HEY ALBERTANS! The referendum ain't over yet. 2 weeks to go. We need to push things over the line. Polling says we may have the seperation question in hand, but still outstanding are the anti-immigrant, anti-constitutional qs. Donate now to make the change Alberta needs! albertasvoice.ca/donate
albertasvoice.ca
Donate Now | Alberta's Voice
Support the campaign to keep Alberta in Canada with a secure contribution.
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autumn coded @hoovybaby.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Just talk to another human already jesus fucking christ
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Federico Gueli @siamosolocani.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
This is a milestone paper. Read it and read the 3D that makes everyone able to access very difficult informations. Congrats to @turville.bsky.social for this giant 4-5years long work.
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Stuart Turville @turville.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
SARS-CoV-2 phenotypic trajectory and the Omicron Paradox. Discussion of the following pre-print and the complex intertwined pathways that have dictated phenotypic outcomes for SARS-CoV-2. This can be otherwise termed the pandemic to endemic trajectory: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...
biorxiv.org
Proteolytic control of the SARS-CoV-2 furin cleavage site defines the phenotypic evolution from the pandemic to endemic state
The successive emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with altered tissue tropism has progressively decoupled transmissibility from lower respiratory tract pathogenicity. Omicron lineages transmit exception...
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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This new one represents a second independent acquisition of A475V by PJ.2.1. I think seeing A475V twice already—in addition to the existing reasons to think it could be advantageous in PJ.2.1 (see next post)—mean it's very likely that A475V will grow faster than baseline PJ.2.1.
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Andrew Urquhart @wolfeagle1989.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I’m concerned about PJ.2.1 descendants especially with S:A475V (now observed) or with S:D420N or S:N487D (neither observed). The preprint www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6... from Yunlong Cao’s group noted all 3 mutations as potentials for PJ.2.1, and that group has a track record of good predictions.
biorxiv.org
Increased receptor binding capability of the SARS-CoV-2 saltational variant PJ.2.1
The recently identified SARS-CoV-2 saltational variant PJ.2.1, a highly mutated descendant of MC.10.1, has achieved rapid intercontinental spread since its detection in May 2026. Here, we show that PJ...
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Raywat Deonandan 🍁🇨🇦 @deonandan.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
7/19 sequences (37%) just uploaded from New Brunswick, Canada, are PJ.2.1, including 4/7 collected since Sept 1. This is the highest local percentage we've seen yet.
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Elizabeth Jacobs, PhD @elizabethjacobs.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Just send the meteor already
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Dr Kathleen Millen @neurodevkathy.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This ...person...(ahem) is the head of Health and Human Services in the USA. Are you wondering why scientists, physicians and citizens are aghast at what is happening to science in USA?
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Federico Gueli @siamosolocani.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
PJ.2.1 is running now in the United States, also the super useful "Lungfish" dashboard by @solidevidence.bsky.social and his team is now showing a clear cluster of mutations all linked to PJ.2.1 growing faster than the other growing mutations (linked to other lineages), do you see that tiny "arch"?
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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
As @siamosolocani.bsky.social points out, @solidevidence.bsky.social's wastewater variant dashboard makes it clear that PJ.2.1 is the fastest-growing lineage in the US. I've inserted arrows pointing to some of the PJ.2.1 mutations. The farther above the dotted diagonal line, the faster the growth.
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Anung Un Drama @space-ghost.com · 14/09/2026
“I'm not going to lie Gohan when you told me your father went around the world collecting dragon balls I automatically thought he was a heroin addict. A drug user Gohan. Chasing the dragon is what they call it."
A little boy with a bowl cut stands next to a large man with red hair and a red shirt. They are both of a different animation style. The little boy is Gohan from Dragon Ball Z. The large man is Coach McGuirk from Home Movies.
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Paul Scott Canavan @paulscottcanavan.com · 12/06/2026
So tired of this shit. Literally any concept artist can doodle up a better solution in minutes. And you know it’s original and not just plucked from some other IP. And they can iterate on it in realtime, allowing the whole team to be in on the process. We had this process for fucking decades.
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Rory Blank @roryblank.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Little Business Man On My Shoulder
A crude drawing of a little man in a suit sitting on an even more crudely drawn person's shoulder.
Caption text says "the angel and devil on my shoulder have been replaced by an incredibly dull businessman. 
All he does is drone on and on about 'quarterly earnings' and 'diversifying portfolios and 'maximizing potential revenue streams' and invite me to happy hours where he threatens to do karaoke.
He says he can do a mean rendition of 'Dancing On My Own' by Robyn.
I don't think he can."
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Canada Healthwatch 🍁 @canadahealthwatch.ca · 08/09/2026
Health minister must stand up to Alberta on dual-practice care, Bolu Ogunyemi writes. Find this article and more at canadahealthwatch.ca #CdnHealth
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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Stark difference in the ratios between cases vs hospitalisation levels: - COVID 7:1 - Influenza 19:1 COVID cases are roughly 2.5X more likely to be hospitalised.
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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
The new @bsky.app feature that automatically numbers each post is GREAT. Now I don't have to worry about numbering each post so people know how long the 🧵 is & where they're at. Thank you, @bsky.app! Please, enable posting images in chat groups/DMs next. Really frustrating that we can't do this.
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Tyson Graber @rnaguru.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Ottawa WAVE (Wastewater Analytics for Viral Epidemiology) as of Aug 30. LEFT IMAGE: 7d trendline of SARS-CoV-2 signal since spring 2020 (A); Past year (B), and 2 months (C), inferred case incidence (D), and Reff (E) determined with ern (PMID: 38905266). RIGHT IMAGE: other viral traces
Plots of SARS-CoV-2 signal across time in Ottawa, Canada;Plots of IAV, RSV, IBV, MPOX wastewater signal across time in Ottawa, Canada;
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Federico Gueli @siamosolocani.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
New batch from Ontario, we were expecting PJ.2.1 and instead an undesignated branch of SV.2 defined by S:H445Q is dominating there reaching 50% prevalence. github.com/cov-lineages...
github.com
SV.2+S:H445Q (28, Singapore, US-CA NY, AUS-NSW, HK, Taiwan-imported, Canada Ontario) now dominant in Ontario · Issue #3246 · cov-lineages/pango-designation
SV.2 >> S:H445Q (T22897G) Query: T22897G,G2324A,T22930A (new) Samples: 6 First 2026-07-10 CA and NY Places: Singapore, US CA NY, AUS NSW, HK, Taiwan Tree: https://nextstrain.org/fetch/genome-test.g...
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Rory Blank @roryblank.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Unwanted Wizards
A rough drawing of a wizard sticking out of a sewer drain accompanied by text saying "many families adopt wizards while they're young and cute looking and they do not know or expect that the wizards will grow up to become wizened and craggy.
Tragically, the families will often end up flushing the suddenly unwanted wizards down the toilet. 
Think before you bring a wizard into your house."
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Paul Waldman @paulwaldman.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
I know at least a half-dozen adults who are obviously on the spectrum and never got diagnosed because it just wasn't a thing when they were kids
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Alt CDC (they/them) @altcdc.altgov.info · 12/08/2026
Jay Bhattacharya, who has been serving as the interim CDC director, sent his goodbye email today. Every political from this admin writes with a tone of profound surprise that CDC staff are highly competent and dedicated. Like. No shit. Don't let the door hit you on the ass on your way out, Jay.
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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Definitely a Delta, so about a 5-year-long infection at this point, during which it has accumulated hundreds of mutations. The selection pressure in these Cryptics is exquisite. I need to do a comprehensive examination of all Cryptics to check, but I think there's also evidence of either.... 1/4
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Federico Gueli @siamosolocani.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
New batch and more recent from India uploaded today, 28 samples from 6 different states 100% RF:5 25/28 RF.5.4 , 12 of them in the N:R204Q branch 3/28 RF.5.3.1
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JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
PJ.2.1 is a brand new, highly mutated variant (from a BA.2.86 Pirola base) It's looking to me like it may have some speed 👀 Will continue to monitor this one. Most interesting variant in a good while.
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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
...but I think there's a legitimate public health interest in identifying the source of this lineage, something that has never been done with other major saltation lineages, like Alpha, Beta, Delta, BA.1/2/3, BA.4/5, XBB, BA.2.86, BA.3.2, etc.
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Paul L 🇨🇦 @paullmma.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
This is a very interesting new variant. Many of the changes are in some ways stranger than BA.3.2. We may find out more very soon if it keeps rising.
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Bloom lab @jbloomlab.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
In new study led by @bdadonaite.bsky.social, we show many influenza HAs (H5, H7, H9, H1, H2, H3) can use avian or human MHC-II to enter cells. We then use novel combo of deep mutational scanning & cryoEM to define how H5 HA binds to avian MHC-II. Preprint: doi.org/10.64898/202...
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ADHD Memes @adhdforreal.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
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Federico Gueli @siamosolocani.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Just look at how far we went from WT with PJ.2.1:
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Federico Gueli @siamosolocani.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Now designated PJ.2.1
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IamLou 🇨🇦 @louisongagnon.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Funny, I found this today...
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Trevor Foster @darthfos.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
This is a must read for people to understand WHY the fires in Canada, located across 857 million acres of forest, can't just be "put out" or "managed better". Canada is huge, lightning starts fires hundreds of miles away from anything in the middle of nowhere. Don't like it? YOU come put it out.
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Enough Eh @enougheh.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
If we can spend billions on weapons, we can fund environmental protections and fire response. www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
cbc.ca
Carney says Trudeau-era climate plan was 'too expensive' and 'divisive' | CBC News
Prime Minister Mark Carney echoed critics of the previous Liberal government's climate plan in a video posted on Tuesday, saying the plan he inherited was too expensive and divisive.
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Julie S. Lalonde @julieslalonde.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
I was born and raised in Northern Ontario and I am absolutely boiling with rage at the ways in which people elsewhere are talking about the forest fires there as though this is a common occurrence. The air thick with smoke for kilometers, entire communities wiped out - this shit is not normal.
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Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @mayor.nyc.gov · 14/07/2026
This morning in Biddeford, Maine, a 26-year-old man said goodbye to his wife and daughter and left for work. Moments later he was dead, shot in the head by ICE agents, the second man ICE has killed in six days. ICE is killing our neighbors. ICE cannot be reformed. Abolish ICE.
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Kai Kupferschmidt @kakape.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
The Ebola outbreak in the DRC keeps growing at a shocking pace. We're already close to 2000 confirmed cases. Right now: 1926 confirmed cases (incl. 53 new cases in the last 24 hours) 702 of these have died insp.cd/sitrep-n058-...
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Federico Gueli @siamosolocani.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
2 MC.10.1.7 saltation sampled recently in NY cc @solidevidence.bsky.social @ryanhisner.bsky.social cc @corneliusroemer.bsky.social Designation needed i think
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 09/07/2026
How it started / how it's going, Lena Wen edition. I appreciate the change of heart but I'd be substantially more sympathetic if it hadn't been breathtakingly in March of 2025 that Bhattacharya is utterly unsuited for the job.
Lena Wen WaPo Opinion piece: The NIH and FDA nominees are surprisingly strong. Democrats shouldn't reflexively oppose these Trump nominees. 

Published March 11, 2025

Photo of BhattacharyaLena Wen WaPo opinion piece: Why the CDC refusing to publish covid vaccine research is so worrying. Published yesterday.

Photo of Bhattacharya.
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Tyson Graber @rnaguru.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Ottawa WAVE (Wastewater Analytics for Viral Epidemiology) as of Jul 05. LEFT IMAGE: 7d trendline of SARS-CoV-2 signal since spring 2020 (A); Past year (B), and 2 months (C), inferred case incidence (D), and Reff (E) determined with ern (PMID: 38905266). RIGHT IMAGE: other viral traces
Plots of SARS-CoV-2 signal across time in Ottawa, Canada;Plots of IAV, RSV, IBV, MPOX wastewater signal across time in Ottawa, Canada;
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Jennifer ScareCrow @writerjencrow.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
We’re nearing the game dev singularity, in which all big games will be developed by one guy named Steve who’s making them in his mom’s basement on a gig basis while trying to get people to pay for his medical costs on GoFundMe.
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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Ended up writing a mini-🧵 describing some past variants that somewhat resemble the current saltation variant from Ontario. They had a wide variety of outcomes—from no real impact whatsoever to global dominance. The Ontario one is unique in at least one way, though it's not clear what it means.
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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
A mysterious, unusually diverse saltation lineage descended from KP.3.1.1 (last seen early 2025) has circulated at a low level for ~8 months in Ontario (see 🧵 on next post). Seemed a local anomaly, but @solidevidence.bsky.social just spied a weird spike in NYC wastewater—& it's the same one! 1/14
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Ryan Hisner @ryanhisner.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Successfully appealed the biorxiv rejection and today our paper (co-authors @darrenmartin.bsky.social & Ravi Gupta) is posted. The paper's too long to do a single summary thread, but I'll do a cursory overview here, then more detailed subsection threads later. 1/16 www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...
biorxiv.org
Coevolving Mutations in Chronic SARS-CoV-2 Infections
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been marked by two outstanding features that have had major impacts on global public health: the repeated emergence and growth of highly divergent saltation variants with n...
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