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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl.bsky.social
1.4K followers 165 following 91 posts

Pollster and Senior Data Journalist at Focaldata. Hoping this platform takes off. (he/him) 🏳️‍🌈 patrick@focaldata.com

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
New post from me on 'Ossoffism' and party brands in the US 👇 www.focaldata.com/blog/ossoffi...
focaldata.com
'Ossoffism' and the GOP's Elite Problem
This month's survey sought to find out which party’s brand was more ‘elite-coded’, and whether the nascent ‘Ossoffism’ has a future in US politics over the next few years.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
This is the killer in an anti-elite political environment: the more Republican an archetype perception, the more likely voters were to view that archetype as part of the elite.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Voters on both sides want see their party on the side of dog owners, nurses, fishing enthusiasts and (American) football fans. The chart below shows partisan coding vs in-group scores (was someone more likely to assign it to their own party or their opponent?)
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
The Republican brand in the US has become *heavily* 'elite-coded'. Out of 40 archetypes we tested in our latest survey with @financialtimes.com, billionaires, CEOs, and country club members were the most Republican-leaning groups in the eyes of American voters.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
We know that the public is increasingly unforgiving and eager for change. Having to introduce yourself to the public properly and set out your vision while simultaneously doing the job as PM effectively is a very difficult pair of tasks. Why not separate the two?
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Surely the better course of action would be to conduct a proper leadership election over the summer, even if Burnham is only opposed by a paper candidate who gets 15% of the vote, so policy/vision/performance can actually be debated.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
The party risks replicating what the Democrats did with Kamala Harris -- crowning someone in a very short timeframe based mostly on vibes, with zero scrutiny or democratic debate.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Labour electing Burnham unopposed is a big risk in my view. Sure, it avoids potential party in-fighting over the summer, but is that risk really bigger than electing a new PM in a matter of weeks where few MPs, let alone the public, actually know what his plan is for the country?
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
New post-locals piece with my brilliant colleague @matthewbprice.bsky.social unherd.com/2026/05/six-...
unherd.com
Six coping myths about the local election
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Excited to reveal the first @focaldata.bsky.social House of Representatives MRP poll of 2026. 🔵 Democrats: 228 seats (+13) 🔴 Republicans: 207 seats (-13) Fieldwork conducted up to Monday this week, and the model accounts for last night's redistricting referendum in Virginia.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
If you haven't seen it, you can read the blog here: t.co/WczGHfOG2g
t.co
https://www.focaldata.com/blog/cost-of-living-fuelling-democrat-strength-in-new-midterms-polling
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
The economy might cost Donald Trump the House in November. Economic hardship is driving voter behaviour at more than twice the rate of the next biggest issue.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Greens up to a record high of 13% in our first post-G&D poll. 🟣 RFM: 27% (+1) 🔴 LAB: 20% (-1) 🔵 CON: 18% (-2) 🟠 LDM: 14% (-) 🟢 GRN: 13% (+3) ⚫️ Restore Britain: 2% (NEW) ⚫️ Your Party: <1% (NEW)
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Read the full @focaldata.bsky.social blog here: www.focaldata.com/blog/how-to-...
focaldata.com
How to Communicate in an Attention Crisis
New survey research using TV ads reveals that falling attention spans among younger generations are reshaping what messages cut through, and why weird, disruptive content now outperforms serious, slow...
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Attention spans have collapsed. So why are some politicians more popular than ever?
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
We're about to release a piece on the attention crisis gripping young people. Some pretty shocking stats in it
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Overall, inflation and economic concerns are boosting the Democrats by ~2 points, equivalent to an extra 2.5 million votes in November.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Trump approval is now sharply correlated with voters' perceived financial positions, a pattern which holds among his own voters.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
In the generic House of Representatives ballot, the Democrats lead by 5 points with registered voters, and 7 with likely voters.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
We just released our first US midterms polling of 2026. The main story is a familiar one, that the cost of living is again set to punish the incumbent. Since 2024, the Democrats' vote margin has increased by double digits with those most concerned about food/gas prices.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Great to see our latest geopolitics white paper written up by the Guardian's dataviz team! www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...
theguardian.com
These charts show how Trump is isolating the US on the world stage
Analysis shows that the world is moving closer to China, as Trump’s isolationism rears its head at the United Nations
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
The geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting towards China, driven primarily by Europe's increased distance from the US under the Trump II era. We analysed decades of UN voting data to create a new US-China axis, and found the US advantage is at its lowest level this century.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Over the last month, I've been analysing the results of thousands of UN votes to create a new geopolitical axis. I was struck by just how severe the Trump effect has been since his second term began. UK-US alignment is now at an all-time low.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Releasing a poll of 143 people, besides all the other issues involved with this particular pollster, is quite the move.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
guys...
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
The drop coincides with immigration and asylum falling down the agenda. 35% now say it's one of the most important issues facing the country, down from 49% in early November. As we found earlier this year, Farage-led parties typically move in lockstep with migration concern.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Our first voting intention poll of 2026 sees Reform slipping to 26%, down 3 points since late November. 🟣 RFM: 26% (-3) 🔴 LAB: 21% (+1) 🔵 CON: 20% (+2) 🟠 LDM: 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN: 10% (-2)
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
We (and others) try to account for the fact people say they voted when in reality they didn’t, so we have recalled turnout quotas (~74%) rather than actual (60%). Haven’t yet quantified how much of the Labour gap is explained by this alone though, but suspect it’s around 2 points
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Been planning to do a write up on differences between the pollsters. Biggest difference is that FON uses actual 2024 turnout quotas (ie 40% recalled non-voters). Issue is that effectively makes the assumption that social desirability bias doesn’t exist and everyone is telling the truth abt voting
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Pleased to say we've just launched a new white paper on digital sovereignty (a phrase we'll probably be hearing more of in the next 12 months). Download it here: www.focaldata.com/blog/britain...
focaldata.com
Britain's Digital Future: A new white paper from Focaldata
We are delighted to announce the release of our latest white paper, Britain's Digital Future: Why digital sovereignty could become
the next major political divide.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
www.focaldata.com/blog/labour-...
focaldata.com
Labour drops to record low amid gloomy Budget outlook
Ahead of the Autumn Budget on Wednesday, the public is in a very bleak mood about the state of the economy and many expect things to get even worse.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
GB voting intention results: 🟣 RFM: 28% (-2) 🔴 LAB: 20% (-1)* 🔵 CON: 20% (+1) 🟠 LDM: 13% (-) 🟢 GRN: 10% (+1) *All-time low
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
On budget measures, voters are split on whether freezing income tax thresholds and removing the two-child benefit cap are the right thing to do. Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters narrowly back both measures, but Reform & Conservative supporters are typically opposed.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
The result is this... Labour still leads on 31% with those who say they are 'living comfortably', but Reform now dominates with those facing economic hardship with 38% of the vote, with Labour narrowly in fifth place (12%).
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
On the eve of the Autumn Budget, our latest polling finds that *over half* of 2024 Labour voters who are 'finding it difficult' economically have now switched parties. 17% now back the Greens, and a further 17% back Reform. 🧵
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Other interesting findings in the piece: www.focaldata.com/blog/how-to-...
focaldata.com
How climate change narratives fare in a new era
Climate change and Net Zero could be headed down the same path as overseas aid unless policymakers and advocates act quickly.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
These findings are part of a wider piece of research on climate messaging. We used our new conjoint analysis tool to estimate the effects of messengers, tone and focus on climate messages tailored for 2025. We found that messengers mattered more than the actual messages...
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
With COP30 coming to a close today, which party do Brits trust most on climate and energy topics? Greens are trusted most on core environmental issues, but fare less well on energy policy. Reflects a common issue, that voters aren't sure climate action = better economic outcomes.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Finally, we used a combination of public MRP polls, modelled with our own data and the preferences given above to estimate how the UK would vote under different electoral systems.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
We also asked people to give their ranked ballot preferences under a PR system. Some interesting findings here (almost a quarter of Reform voters would rank Labour, the Lib Dems or Greens second).
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Which parties would people be willing to go into coalition with? The public splits into pretty clear left and right blocs...
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
However, messages against PR are more effective at changing people's minds than those in support. The average anti-PR message reduces support by 3.8 points, whereas the average pro-PR message only increases support by 1.2 points.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
In contrast to the Brexit referendum, voters on both sides of the debate more or less want the same things. Being able to vote for your preferred party rather than tactically is the characteristic most selected by supporters of each system.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Voters narrowly back PR over FPTP 41% to 36%, with the model below showing the key drivers of PR support. People who disapprove of their local MP are much more likely to back PR!
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Our latest blog looks at attitudes to proportional representation in the UK, and why the debate is likely to go mainstream in the next couple of years. But how would a PR referendum campaign go? What would the House of Commons look like under PR? 👇 www.focaldata.com/blog/has-the...
focaldata.com
Has the time come for Proportional Representation?
After bubbling away in policy circles since the AV referendum in 2011, the debate over electoral reform is likely to burst back into the mainstream in the coming years. There are a few major factors d...
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
A&E: www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpYl... ZP: www.youtube.com/shorts/0MDzM...
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
Full write-up below, including our latest Westminster voting intention figures. www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
NEW: Brits would back Zack Polanski if they had a vote in the Green Party leadership election. After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
We've got some polling coming on the Green Party leadership race this week, with voting still open for party members. We showed the public videos from the two campaigns and asked who they would vote for if they were eligible. One campaign leads with voters of *all parties*.
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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
You can read more on this ‒ including a message-testing case study on how the aid sector could restore support ‒ on our blog 👇 www.focaldata.com/blog/foundat...
focaldata.com
Foundations at Risk: A new white paper from Focaldata
We are delighted to announce the release of our latest white paper, Foundations at Risk: Why support for philanthropic ventures like overseas aid and climate action is crumbling across the West – and ...
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