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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

This is the killer in an anti-elite political environment: the more Republican an archetype perception, the more likely voters were to view that archetype as part of the elite.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Voters on both sides want see their party on the side of dog owners, nurses, fishing enthusiasts and (American) football fans. The chart below shows partisan coding vs in-group scores (was someone more likely to assign it to their own party or their opponent?)

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

The Republican brand in the US has become *heavily* 'elite-coded'. Out of 40 archetypes we tested in our latest survey with @financialtimes.com, billionaires, CEOs, and country club members were the most Republican-leaning groups in the eyes of American voters.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Excited to reveal the first @focaldata.bsky.social House of Representatives MRP poll of 2026. 🔵 Democrats: 228 seats (+13) 🔴 Republicans: 207 seats (-13) Fieldwork conducted up to Monday this week, and the model accounts for last night's redistricting referendum in Virginia.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

The economy might cost Donald Trump the House in November. Economic hardship is driving voter behaviour at more than twice the rate of the next biggest issue.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

Greens up to a record high of 13% in our first post-G&D poll. 🟣 RFM: 27% (+1) 🔴 LAB: 20% (-1) 🔵 CON: 18% (-2) 🟠 LDM: 14% (-) 🟢 GRN: 13% (+3) ⚫️ Restore Britain: 2% (NEW) ⚫️ Your Party: <1% (NEW)

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Attention spans have collapsed. So why are some politicians more popular than ever?

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

We're about to release a piece on the attention crisis gripping young people. Some pretty shocking stats in it

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

Overall, inflation and economic concerns are boosting the Democrats by ~2 points, equivalent to an extra 2.5 million votes in November.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

Trump approval is now sharply correlated with voters' perceived financial positions, a pattern which holds among his own voters.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

In the generic House of Representatives ballot, the Democrats lead by 5 points with registered voters, and 7 with likely voters.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

We just released our first US midterms polling of 2026. The main story is a familiar one, that the cost of living is again set to punish the incumbent. Since 2024, the Democrats' vote margin has increased by double digits with those most concerned about food/gas prices.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

The geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting towards China, driven primarily by Europe's increased distance from the US under the Trump II era. We analysed decades of UN voting data to create a new US-China axis, and found the US advantage is at its lowest level this century.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

Over the last month, I've been analysing the results of thousands of UN votes to create a new geopolitical axis. I was struck by just how severe the Trump effect has been since his second term began. UK-US alignment is now at an all-time low.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

The drop coincides with immigration and asylum falling down the agenda. 35% now say it's one of the most important issues facing the country, down from 49% in early November. As we found earlier this year, Farage-led parties typically move in lockstep with migration concern.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

GB voting intention results: 🟣 RFM: 28% (-2) 🔴 LAB: 20% (-1)* 🔵 CON: 20% (+1) 🟠 LDM: 13% (-) 🟢 GRN: 10% (+1) *All-time low

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

On budget measures, voters are split on whether freezing income tax thresholds and removing the two-child benefit cap are the right thing to do. Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters narrowly back both measures, but Reform & Conservative supporters are typically opposed.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

The result is this... Labour still leads on 31% with those who say they are 'living comfortably', but Reform now dominates with those facing economic hardship with 38% of the vote, with Labour narrowly in fifth place (12%).

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

On the eve of the Autumn Budget, our latest polling finds that *over half* of 2024 Labour voters who are 'finding it difficult' economically have now switched parties. 17% now back the Greens, and a further 17% back Reform. 🧵

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

These findings are part of a wider piece of research on climate messaging. We used our new conjoint analysis tool to estimate the effects of messengers, tone and focus on climate messages tailored for 2025. We found that messengers mattered more than the actual messages...

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

With COP30 coming to a close today, which party do Brits trust most on climate and energy topics? Greens are trusted most on core environmental issues, but fare less well on energy policy. Reflects a common issue, that voters aren't sure climate action = better economic outcomes.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Finally, we used a combination of public MRP polls, modelled with our own data and the preferences given above to estimate how the UK would vote under different electoral systems.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

We also asked people to give their ranked ballot preferences under a PR system. Some interesting findings here (almost a quarter of Reform voters would rank Labour, the Lib Dems or Greens second).

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Which parties would people be willing to go into coalition with? The public splits into pretty clear left and right blocs...

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

However, messages against PR are more effective at changing people's minds than those in support. The average anti-PR message reduces support by 3.8 points, whereas the average pro-PR message only increases support by 1.2 points.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

In contrast to the Brexit referendum, voters on both sides of the debate more or less want the same things. Being able to vote for your preferred party rather than tactically is the characteristic most selected by supporters of each system.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Voters narrowly back PR over FPTP 41% to 36%, with the model below showing the key drivers of PR support. People who disapprove of their local MP are much more likely to back PR!

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

Full write-up below, including our latest Westminster voting intention figures. www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

NEW: Brits would back Zack Polanski if they had a vote in the Green Party leadership election. After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

In-donor refugee costs and misinformation around where aid is spent are both damaging support for the aid sector.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

Overseas aid is by far the UK public's lowest spending priority ‒ almost off-the-charts bad.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

Voters across the four countries we studied basically don't trust their government to deliver anything. Overseas aid is the area where governments are least trusted to spend money well. Unsurprising, then, that unpopular govts are cutting aid while increasing defence spending.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

Net Zero has quietly become a culture-war issue, and is now almost as politically-divisive as multiculturalism.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 18/07/2025

Latest Westminster voting intention from us at @focaldata.bsky.social sees minor impact of votes at 16 (Reform's lead cut from 3.7 points to 3.3)

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 17/05/2025

Stats-based forecast for tonight's Eurovision final. The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion. Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight based on 5,000 simulations.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

Labour about to fall into *sixth* including independents...

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

However, while some of the fundamentals favour the Liberals, we think we should be cautious. The 'wisdom of the crowd' method, which successfully predicted Trump's swing state victories in November, points towards a polling error and a Conservative victory today.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

Trump's actions have dramatically affected Canada's views of the United States. Almost half of Canadians now see the US as either 'unfriendly', or an enemy of Canada, a higher percentage than those who say the same about China.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

With Canadians whose vote was influenced by Trump's recent actions, the Liberals dominate with 53% of the vote, and Mark Carney leads by 44 points on who would be best to handle the US-Canada relationship (the second most important issue) among those who see it as important.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

🇨🇦🧵 Quick thread on some of our findings ahead of today's Canadian election. Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Our poll for Monday's Canadian election finds the Liberals with a narrow 3-point lead, with 40.5% of the vote to the Conservatives' 37.5%. Some very interesting findings under the hood -- more details coming over the weekend.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

Latest UK voting intention from us finds Labour, Conservatives and Reform neck-and-neck... www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 07/11/2024

Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been. The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true. On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 23/09/2024

To combat the problem, we built a turnout model which considers the effects of self-reported likelihood to vote, alongside other demographics, on whether someone actually votes or not. The result is that Harris' lead falls by an average of 2.4 points compared to the general population.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 23/09/2024

However, there is a large difference in turnout among 'definite' voters when looking at age, race or education. Only around half of those under 35 who said they would vote last time ended up voting. For over 65s, the figure is much higher, at 85%.

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 23/09/2024

The polls underestimated Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020. There's a risk that may happen again in November. Pollsters' reliance on self-reported likelihood to vote is causing some of the problem. 🧵

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