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Patrick Sullivan

@patrick-sullivan.bsky.social
93 followers 102 following 51 posts

Postdoctoral Researcher at the American Political Economy Exchange (APEX), @ispsyale.bsky.social. Associated Researcher @excinequality.bsky.social. Green Bay Packers Part Owner

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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Washington Center for Equitable Growth @equitablegrowth.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
1/ @lilyroberts.bsky.social on the #OBBBA's impact, a year later: "Families, communities, and states will have to shift resources to compensate for federal defunding of social programs, and are likely to spend less on education and economic investment." equitablegrowth.org/the-one-big-... -🧵-
equitablegrowth.org
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, one year later: Parsing the evidence on the law’s consequences so far
One year after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was passed, research shows that its cuts to social programs negatively impact U.S. families.
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Consortium on the American Political Economy (CAPE) @cape-team.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
The 6th Annual CAPE Research Conference program is live! Join us virtually July 27-29 at 12:00 PM ET for the latest (and greatest) in American Political Economy (APE) research. Free registration and full schedule: americanpoliticaleconomy.org/events/annual-conference 👇
americanpoliticaleconomy.org
Annual Conference | Consortium on the American Political Economy
The annual CAPE research conference is a forum for APE-oriented scholars to present work in progress and receive feedback from the broader APE community.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
So so grateful you could both make it and for the really invigorating discussions! Looking forward to keeping these conversations going moving forward. We’ll, of course, have to find another opportunity to get us all together again in the near future!
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Jacob Hacker @jacobhacker.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
Republicans' hugely unpopular bill is law; will they pay the electoral price for it they should? My research with @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social for @equitablegrowth.bsky.social has good news: voters informed about the bill's effects overwhelmingly oppose it. equitablegrowth.org/americans-in...
equitablegrowth.org
Americans informed about the distributional effects of Republicans’ tax and budget bill overwhelmingly oppose it
Republicans’ tax and budget bill would, if enacted, be the most regressive U.S. tax and budget law in at least the past four decades.
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Consortium on the American Political Economy (CAPE) @cape-team.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
Join us for the 5th Research Conference on the American Political Economy, July 28-30 on zoom, 12-2:30pm ET, to discuss cutting-edge APE research! Register here: yale.zoom.us/meeting/regi... or check out the program (www.americanpoliticaleconomy.org/events/annua...) featuring@adambonica.bsky.social
yale.zoom.us
Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: 2025 APE Annual Research Conference. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting.
The 2025 APE Annual Research Conference will be held on Zoom from July 28 to 30 (Monday to Wednesday) from 12:00 to 2:30 pm ET each day.
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Washington Center for Equitable Growth @equitablegrowth.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
Just days after President Trump signed his federal budget bill into law, EG is responding, highlighting why this is the most regressive piece of tax/budget legislation to be passed in recent memory. Read our full statement below. ⬇️ equitablegrowth.org/press/equita...
equitablegrowth.org
Equitable Growth responds to passage of the federal budget bill
The federal budget bill dramatically exacerbates inequality by sending more than 50 percent of its tax benefits to the top 10 percent of U.S. households
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
Today, I was asked by Newsweek to comment on the dangerous implications of the BBB's slash to Medicaid. I had a whole lot to say. Since I know only a small share of it will wind up in the article, I'm including here the entirety of what I wrote today. open.substack.com/pub/miranday...
open.substack.com
The Danger of the Not-So-Beautiful Bill
Today, I was asked by Newsweek to comment on the adverse impact of the not-so-beautiful bill to dismantle America’s safety net.
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Washington Center for Equitable Growth @equitablegrowth.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
7/ Maybe that’s part of the reason why the bill is so unpopular? The more people know about it, the more they hate it, per EG collaborators @jacobhacker.bsky.social & @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social. equitablegrowth.org/working-pape... - END 🧵-
equitablegrowth.org
Americans Informed About the Distributional Effects of Republicans’ Budget Bill Overwhelmingly Oppose It
Survey results show that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is broadly unpopular—overwhelmingly so after respondents learned of its regressive distributional effects.
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
Legitimately feel sick. We are hours away from the largest cuts to low-income people in history. People’s lives will be ruined. It is so unfair. It’s unfair to be born into a system that allows this level of poverty in the first place and it’s evil to rip away aid from the needy. Hard to watch this.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
But more importantly, they should vote "NO" on this horrendous and cruel piece of legislation because it's the right thing to do...
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Republican members of Congress should take note Republicans who voted to "repeal and replace" the Affordable Care Act in 2017 were more likely to lose reelection than their co-partisans who voted "No" link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
The Electoral Consequences of Roll Call Voting: Health Care and the 2018 Election - Political Behavior
For years, Republicans in Congress promised to “repeal and replace” the Affordable Care Act. The results of the 2016 elections put them in position to take action on the seminal domestic policy achiev...
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
You can read more about this in a soon-to-be updated Working Paper we published @equitablegrowth.bsky.social equitablegrowth.org/working-pape...
equitablegrowth.org
Americans Informed About the Distributional Effects of Republicans’ Budget Bill Overwhelmingly Oppose It
Survey results show that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is broadly unpopular—overwhelmingly so after respondents learned of its regressive distributional effects.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Moreover, majorities of all groups (Democrats, Independents, EVEN Republicans) who learned about distributional effects of the bill said they would be LESS likely for their senator in the future if they were to vote YES on the budget bill
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Even Republicans who learned about the regressivity of the bill became overwhelmingly opposed 61 percent of Republicans in this group opposed the bill, with less than one-quarter supporting
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
But among those who learned about how regressive the bill is, opposition increased drastically, to 78 percent In fact, opposition outnumbered support by a ratio of 7 to 1!
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
@jacobhacker.bsky.social and I found similar results in a recent survey we conducted, examining Americans' attitudes towards the GOP's budget bill Among those who were asked directly for their opinions, opposition already outpaced support by nearly 20 percentage points
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Trying to stay cautiously optimistic that we will see a few "profiles in courage" in the House today in the form of "NO" votes on the most regressive tax and budget bill in living memory It's cruel, it will harm vulnerable Americans, and the public absolutely HATES it www.cnn.com/2025/06/20/p...
cnn.com
Analysis: The many ugly polls on Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ | CNN Politics
President Donald Trump isn’t asking Congress to do much these days. In fact, it often seems like he’d rather he didn’t have to bother with the legislative branch at all.
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
You know what’s agonizing? Not being able to get medical attention when you’re sick because you got dropped from Medicaid. Rationing meds because you can’t afford it without insurance. Realizing you don’t have enough food for you and your family because your SNAP benefits were reduced. You own this.
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Brendan Duke @brendanvduke.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
NEW: The Senate version of One Big Beautiful Bill is one big ugly transfer of wealth from low-income families to the rich. Americans struggling to get by will pay more for groceries & health care so the highest income families can get big tax cuts. This isn’t shared sacrifice.
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
As Republicans expedite their efforts to rip health coverage from millions of Americans, re-upping my writing on the not so-beautiful bill. First, my piece in The Hill w/ @mshepruralpolitics.bsky.social on harms to rural (conservative) communities (ex: hospital closures). thehill.com/opinion/heal...
thehill.com
Medicaid cuts will harm rural Republican communities most
Trump’s budget will actively harm the health and incomes of rural communities and Republican voters, well beyond those who themselves are enrolled in Medicaid.
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
As @brendanvduke.bsky.social says, this isn’t a case of shared sacrifice. The bill isn’t asking everyone to tighten their belts a little in the name of deficit reduction. Instead it’s asking the poorest to tighten their belts so the richest can loosen their belts. That is profoundly unfair.
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
E.J. Dionne @ejdionne.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
The Senate is racing to pass “a stand alone in history—a reconciliation bill that drives up poverty and the number of people uninsured, while increasing deficits and debt.” @centeronbudget.bsky.social How many GOP Senators who will vote for it think this is a good idea? www.cbpp.org/press/statem...
cbpp.org
Senate Republicans Can Still Abandon Disastrous, Rushed Reconciliation Bill | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
The Senate is barreling toward a vote on a still-not-finished bill that would take away health coverage and food assistance from millions of people who need it, raise families’ costs, and make a large...
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
E.J. Dionne @ejdionne.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
“Legislation speaks louder than words.” Excellent analysis by @jacobhacker.bsky.social & @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social of the bill before the Senate today that is “the most regressive, least populist policy package in memory.” It’s terrible on tax equity, heath care & hunger.
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
1 in 5 Americans depends on Medicaid to access health care. 1 in 7 Americans depends on SNAP for their food security. These cuts— all to funnel tax cuts to the wealthiest— will cause needless suffering & death, not just among the poor: when rural hospitals close (which they will), everyone loses.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
And if you would like to learn more about what is exactly in the so-called "Big Beautiful Bill," what makes it so regressive, and why it could even get worse, check out our recent policy report, also published at @equitablegrowth.bsky.social equitablegrowth.org/congressiona...
equitablegrowth.org
Congressional Republicans’ budget bill is the most regressive in at least 40 years
Jacob Hacker and Patrick Sullivan shine a light on the hidden regressive elements of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
In addition to the linked article above, you can also read more on the survey in a Working Paper we published with the great folks at @equitablegrowth.bsky.social equitablegrowth.org/working-pape...
equitablegrowth.org
Americans Informed About the Distributional Effects of Republicans’ Budget Bill Overwhelmingly Oppose It
Survey results show that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is broadly unpopular—overwhelmingly so after respondents learned of its regressive distributional effects.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
Whereas Republican support for the the bill in our control condition strongly outnumbered opposition, opposition dominates support in our treatment group - with Republicans opposing the GOP budget bill by a nearly 3:1 margin.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
We also examined how the effects of this information varied by respondents' political affiliation. Opposition increased for all groups (Dems, Independents, Reps) who received information on the bill's regressivity. However, the effects of this information were largest among Republicans
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
That is an opposition to support ratio of 7:1!
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
Amongst respondents in our study that were asked directly for their opinions (our "control" group), opposition already outnumbered support (47 to 28). But for those who learned about how regressive the bill was (our "treatment" group), opposition increased to 78% (and support dropped to 11%).
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
Great to speak with @michaelmechanic.bsky.social the other day regarding a recent study @jacobhacker.bsky.social and I conducted examining attitudes toward the GOP's historically regressive budget bill. First, the bill is already VERY unpopular www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
motherjones.com
Ordinary Republicans hate Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill"—once they know what it does
Solid support turns to strong opposition, a new Yale study shows.
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
"the parts of the bill that are most expensive -- things like the big deductions for business income -- almost no-one knows about. The parts that are cheap and don't really change people's lives... a lot of people know about."
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
When Republican voters learn that the "Big Beautiful Bill" takes from the poor to give to the rich, they oppose it.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Thanks, Steffi!
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Yale ISPS @ispsyale.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
New op-ed from @jacobhacker.bsky.social and @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social: The Four Ugliest Points About the Big Beautiful Bill (Gift Link) www.nytimes.com/2025/06/25/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | The Four Ugliest Points About the Big Beautiful Bill
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Great NYT op-ed by @jacobhacker.bsky.social and @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social on the not-so-beautiful bill. Read it, then call your members of Congress to oppose it. Capitol switchboard: 202-224-3121 www.nytimes.com/2025/06/25/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | The Four Ugliest Points About the Big Beautiful Bill
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Reposted by Patrick Sullivan
Washington Center for Equitable Growth @equitablegrowth.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
"It would shift more resources up the income ladder than any bill passed since scorekeepers started keeping track." In this opinion piece, @jacobhacker.bsky.social and @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social highlight four most regressive aspects of the 'Big Beautiful Bill.' www.nytimes.com/2025/06/25/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | The Four Ugliest Points About the Big Beautiful Bill
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Thank you, Miranda!
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Our takeaway from this study and other polling is clear: voters are already opposed to the so-called Big Beautiful Bill, but when they learn about its inegalitarian effects, they become overwhelming opposed. As big as it is, it is certainly anything but beautiful.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
In fact, here, the ratio of support to opposition completely flips, and Republicans in this group were 38 percentage points more likely to OPPPOSE the bill than support it.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Whereas support among Republicans outnumbered opposition by a ratio of over 2.5 to 1 (34 percentage points) in our “control” condition, those who received information on the bill’s regressive ramifications were over three times as likely to oppose the bill.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
However, we saw the largest ‘movement’ among our Republican respondents.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Finally, we examined how the effects of our information varied by partisanship. We found that relative to our control group, support dropped by over half amongst all three groups (Democrats, Independents, and Republicans), and opposition increased significantly.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Moreover, already tepid support dropped by over half, with only 11 percent of respondents supporting the OBBBA among this latter group, and opposition outnumbered support by a ratio of over 7:1!
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
We found that relative to the “control” group, who were just asked about their attitudes about the bill directly, opposition in the group which received information on the regressivity of the bill increased dramatically, by 31 percentage points.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
As the figure above illustrates, while the top 1 percent would see their after-tax-and-transfer incomes increase by 4 percent on average, those at the bottom would see their incomes decrease by nearly the same percent (3.8 on average)
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
However, we also presented another random group of respondents with information on how the bill would affect the incomes after-taxes-and-spending for those in the top 1% percent and the poorest Americans (those in the bottom 20%)
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
First, and in line with recent polling, we found opposition already largely outnumbered support amongst a group of respondents who were asked directly about their opinions of the OBBBA.
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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
That is a question we address in our second report (currently in working paper format), featuring results from a randomized survey experiment. Here, I’ll highlight three notable findings. equitablegrowth.org/working-pape...
equitablegrowth.org
Americans Informed About the Distributional Effects of Republicans’ Budget Bill Overwhelmingly Oppose It
Survey results show that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is broadly unpopular—overwhelmingly so after respondents learned of its regressive distributional effects.
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