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Patrick Sullivan

@patrick-sullivan.bsky.social

Postdoctoral Researcher at the American Political Economy Exchange (APEX), @ispsyale.bsky.social. Associated Researcher @excinequality.bsky.social. Green Bay Packers Part Owner

Posts Replies Media

Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 02/07/2025

Moreover, majorities of all groups (Democrats, Independents, EVEN Republicans) who learned about distributional effects of the bill said they would be LESS likely for their senator in the future if they were to vote YES on the budget bill

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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 02/07/2025

Even Republicans who learned about the regressivity of the bill became overwhelmingly opposed 61 percent of Republicans in this group opposed the bill, with less than one-quarter supporting

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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 02/07/2025

But among those who learned about how regressive the bill is, opposition increased drastically, to 78 percent In fact, opposition outnumbered support by a ratio of 7 to 1!

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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 02/07/2025

@jacobhacker.bsky.social and I found similar results in a recent survey we conducted, examining Americans' attitudes towards the GOP's budget bill Among those who were asked directly for their opinions, opposition already outpaced support by nearly 20 percentage points

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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 29/06/2025

We also examined how the effects of this information varied by respondents' political affiliation. Opposition increased for all groups (Dems, Independents, Reps) who received information on the bill's regressivity. However, the effects of this information were largest among Republicans

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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 29/06/2025

Amongst respondents in our study that were asked directly for their opinions (our "control" group), opposition already outnumbered support (47 to 28). But for those who learned about how regressive the bill was (our "treatment" group), opposition increased to 78% (and support dropped to 11%).

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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

Finally, we examined how the effects of our information varied by partisanship. We found that relative to our control group, support dropped by over half amongst all three groups (Democrats, Independents, and Republicans), and opposition increased significantly.

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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

We found that relative to the “control” group, who were just asked about their attitudes about the bill directly, opposition in the group which received information on the regressivity of the bill increased dramatically, by 31 percentage points.

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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

However, we also presented another random group of respondents with information on how the bill would affect the incomes after-taxes-and-spending for those in the top 1% percent and the poorest Americans (those in the bottom 20%)

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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

First, and in line with recent polling, we found opposition already largely outnumbered support amongst a group of respondents who were asked directly about their opinions of the OBBBA.

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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

Should the Trump administration’s reported goal of slashing IRS staff by 50 percent (~50k workers) come to fruition, and noncompliance increase as a result, our colleagues at @budgetlab.bsky.social estimate the amount of unpaid taxes (aka “tax gap”) could increase by $2.4 trillion over 10 years.

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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

Combined with an additional 5.1 million losing coverage due to expiring premium tax credits for insurance purchased in ACA marketplaces and executive action, these total losses of 16 million rival the 23 million that was projected as part of the failed Republican “repeal and replace” effort of 2017.

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Patrick Sullivan @patrick-sullivan.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

A permanent, and expanded deduction on “pass-through” business income, for instance, would result in an average tax cut for those in the top 0.1% of over $120,000. This group would also be the largest beneficiary of this provision in terms of percent increase in after-tax income.

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