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Parag Mahajan

@paragmahajan.bsky.social
428 followers 415 following 10 posts

Assistant Professor of Economics at U of Delaware. Labor/Migration www.parag-mahajan.com

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Parag Mahajan @paragmahajan.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Proud to be part of such a cool set of papers! Thanks Giovanni, @jeeanews.bsky.social, and the referees for an awesome experience that substantively improved the paper! Now ungated here: doi.org/10.1093/jeea...
doi.org
Immigration and Business Dynamics: Evidence from U.S. Firms
Abstract. This paper studies the impact of immigration on U.S. local business dynamics using a comprehensive collection of survey and administrative data.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Person who was fired here - you should still trust BLS data. The agency is being run by the same dedicated career staff who were running it while I was awaiting confirmation from the Senate. And the staff have made it clear that they are blowing a loud whistle if there is interference.
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The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Who’s Afraid of the Minimum Wage? Measuring the Impacts on Independent Businesses Using Matched U.S. Tax Returns,” by Rao (@nirupama.bsky.social) and Risch: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
doi.org
Who’s Afraid of the Minimum Wage? Measuring the Impacts on Independent Businesses Using Matched U.S. Tax Returns*
Abstract. A common concern surrounding minimum wage policies is their impact on independent businesses, which are often feared to be less able to bear or p
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Joël Machado @joelmachado.eu · 24/11/2025
‪ With @jeromevalette.bsky.social & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, we are happy to announce the CfPapers for the 4th edition of the Junior Workshop on the Economics of Migration on May 26-27, 2026 @uc3meconomics.bsky.social, Spain. Submit until February 1, 2026 on economig2026.sciencesconf.org
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Joshua Mask @joshuafmask.bsky.social · 24/08/2025
Goodbye summer
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 03/08/2025
Any economists on here who cen speak about experiences in their (non-US) country with the politicization of official statistics? DM me. #EconSky
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Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
Why do the jobs numbers get revised? our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months 1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...
The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the
businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. (See chart 1.)
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, a longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today
I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under “TRUMP” despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting “Kamala” elected – How did that work out? Jerome “Too Late” Powell should also be put “out to pasture.” Thank you for your attention to this matter!
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Bitsy Perlman @bitsyperlman.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Everyone who helps the creation of meaningful accurate data for the good of the public: I admire your service and appreciate you ❤️🧡🤍🩷❤️
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Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
🚨 Should (macro) investors should care about ICE raids? on.ft.com/4f34KQz
on.ft.com
Should investors care about ICE raids?
Deportation nation
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Dan Diamond @ddiamond.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
Please read this @khoureld.bsky.social story about the consequences of USAID cuts. Children are dying from starvation on the streets of Sudan — and the food that could save them, already paid for by our government, is languishing in U.S. warehouses. (No paywall)
wapo.st
In Sudan, where children clung to life, doctors say USAID cuts have been fatal
The Trump administration’s cuts to USAID had an immediate and deadly impact in war-ravaged Sudan, according to civilians, doctors and aid officials.
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Valerie Mueller @valmuellerasu.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
What an important contribution from UMD (Go Terps!) alum @anamibanez.bsky.social and co-authors. Programs that integrate refugees work and are fiscally more efficient for host governments as evidenced in Colombia. #EconSky check out great paper: academic.oup.com/jeea/article...
academic.oup.com
Life Out of the Shadows: the Impacts of Regularization Programs on the Lives of Forced Migrants
Abstract. We examine the well-being effects of a regularization program offered to half a million Venezuelan forced migrants in Colombia. We collected data
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Parag Mahajan @paragmahajan.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
Check out some of my new work on H-2B workers and firms during the pandemic. Thanks to @upjohninstitute.bsky.social and @bradhershbein.bsky.social for their support!
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Elizabeth Weber Handwerker @elizwebhand.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
Economists love when random variation makes it possible to measure causal impacts. I wrote a CRS 2-page summary of three studies that use random variation in application processing to measure the impact of the H-2B visa program on employers and employees: www.congress.gov/crs-product/...
congress.gov
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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 01/06/2025
The reason why this article is so bad is that the only argument it marshals against international students is a fallacy. There isn’t a fixed set of slots for people to compete for, given by nature. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/01/o...
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Adrienne Lucas @profalucas.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
New @nber.org working paper "Targeted Education Transfers Reduced Long-Run and Intergenerational Ethnic Inequality in Chile" with #PatrickMcEwan & #DavidTorresIrribarra. Title summarizes it. More details: www.nber.org/papers/w33798
screen shot from NBER website that contains paper title, authors, and abstract:  Targeted Education Transfers Reduced Long-Run and Intergenerational Ethnic Inequality in Chile
Adrienne M. Lucas, Patrick J. McEwan & David Torres Irribarra

Working Paper 33798
DOI 10.3386/w33798
Issue Date May 2025

Since 1991, Chile has provided large, renewable cash grants to indigenous children in lower-income households, conditional on school enrollment. We estimate intent-to-treat effects of grant exposure on indigenous adults and their children, leveraging variation in expected grant exposure across birth cohorts and never-treated adults, and using fixed effects to absorb unobserved variables shared by adults born in the same year and community. Cohorts with the greatest exposure had 0.6 more years of schooling, 10% more hours worked, and 22% higher labor earnings, reducing pre-treatment ethnic differences. Mothers’ exposure increased their children’s early-grade test scores and reduced second-generation grant receipt.
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Barton Willage @bartonwillage.com · 17/05/2025
My cake on a face!
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Parag Mahajan @paragmahajan.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/13/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | The Science I Would Be Doing if I Weren’t in ICE Detention
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Elizabeth Weber Handwerker @elizwebhand.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
How many farmworkers in the US have no work authorization? I've published a guestimate in my new CRS 2-pager, "Work Authorization Among Hired Agricultural Workers," www.congress.gov/crs-product/... (One common estimate is 42%. That estimate doesn't include H-2A workers in the denominator.)
congress.gov
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Ian Carrillo @iansociologo.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
Please highlight this story. ICE stormed into the wrong house, trashed the place, and made women/girls stand outside in the rain in their underwear. ICE also stole phones, laptops, and cash savings from the family, who moved to OKC two weeks ago. kfor.com/news/local/w...
kfor.com
'We're citizens!': Oklahoma City family traumatized after ICE raids home, but they weren't suspects
A woman says her family’s fresh start in Oklahoma turned into a nightmare after federal immigration agents raided their home, taking their phones, laptops, and life savings – even though they were …
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
This morning ICE deported 3 more US citizen children held incommunicado. The families were disappeared and isolated without legal access; one child with cancer deported without medication and pregnant mother deported as well www.aclu.org/press-releas...
aclu.org
ICE Deports 3 U.S. Citizen Children Held Incommunicado Prior to the Deportation | American Civil Liberties Union
Families disappeared and isolated without legal access; one child with cancer deported without medication and pregnant mother deported as well
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James Fallows @jfallows.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Almost every line of this story would have been simply unbelievable a few months ago: —Pioneering cancer researcher; —*Arrested* at airport in Boston; —Now indefinite ICE detention in Louisiana; —"Crime": not declaring some frog-embryo samples for research. Read it. www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...
nbcnews.com
New images could change cancer diagnostics, but ICE detained the Harvard scientist who analyzes them
Without scientist Kseniia Petrova’s expertise, no one can fully unlock the data’s potential, putting crucial advancements in early cancer detection at risk.
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Review of Economics and Statistics (REStat) @restatjournal.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
Unprecedented return migration from the US has contributed to Mexico's economic development in recent decades. In the March issue, by José R. Bucheli and Matías Fontenla zurl.co/h2IZ1
direct.mit.edu
The Impact of Return Migration on Economic Development
Abstract. Mexican migration to the United States—one of the largest flows in human history—inverted in the late 2000s, and during the next decade more Mexicans returned home than those who migrated north. We exploit this historical reversal to estimate the effects of return migration on economic development in Mexico. We find that return migration leads to higher levels of development through improved income, labor, health, and educational outcomes. Our findings suggest that the benefits of migration extend beyond individuals’ tenure abroad, as accumulated capital, skills, and social norms have the potential to contribute to development back home.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 15/04/2025
Despite what you’ve probably heard, Trump’s immigration agenda isn’t actually popular. While Americans sometimes approve of “the way he is handling immigration” in abstract, they are very negative on the details. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-imm...
gelliottmorris.com
Trump's immigration agenda isn't popular, actually
Polling shows most Americans oppose the details of enforcement and the president’s most extreme tactics
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Barack Obama @barackobama.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Harvard has set an example for other higher-ed institutions - rejecting an unlawful and ham-handed attempt to stifle academic freedom, while taking steps to make sure students can benefit from an environment of intellectual inquiry, rigorous debate and mutual respect. Let’s hope others follow suit.
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ian bremmer @ianbremmer.com · 14/04/2025
bloomberg: ~90% of deported migrants to el salvador had no criminal record
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Maya Sen @mayasen.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
Here is the situation if I’m understanding it correctly: 1. They are deporting lawful immigrants erroneously to prisons overseas 2. They are claiming no recourse to return these individuals 3. They say they are open to deporting citizens in the same way
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
No, absolutely not. I do not think we should be reading that into anything. The primary reason the government does not want him back is the much simpler explanation: they don't want to admit any mistakes, his very presence would be a huge embarrassment to them, and he'll tell tales about CECOT.
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Joe Weisenthal @weisenthal.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
If it weren't for the tariffs, this would be one of the biggest stories right now.
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David Evans @daveevansphd.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
A remedial education program in India worked well when teachers were given strict implementation guidelines. It worked just as well when teachers had discretion to adapt. www.nber.org/papers/w33242 by Beg, @annefitz13.bsky.social, @jkerwin.bsky.social, @profalucas.bsky.social, & @kwrahman.com
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 08/04/2025
this is a great example of trying to rationalize a fundamentally irrational decision. you’ll notice that at no point does cass ever articulate what the american public is supposed to get out of the deal here. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/08/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | ‘Liberation Day’ Was Messy, but Trump’s Tariffs Can Still Work
It’s a matter of timing and communication.
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60 Minutes @60minutes.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
60 Minutes found no criminal record for 75% of the Venezuelan migrants the U.S. sent to a mega-prison in El Salvador. cbsn.ws/4lC4Vp5
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Max Berger @maxberger.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Donald Trump and Elon Musk are disrupting a breakthrough cancer treatment so they can fund tax cuts for billionaires. Tell your friends.
washingtonpost.com
NIH scientists have a cancer breakthrough. Layoffs are delaying it.
A big step forward in cancer therapy has been slowed by layoffs and new restrictions at the National Institutes of Health, where it was developed.
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Seema Jayachandran @seema.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
When home heating is less affordable, more people die each winter. That's what our analysis found for a period when LIHEAP was in place. Without LIHEAP, the effect would presumably much larger. Ungated copy of the study here: bit.ly/2JrJfxR
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 01/04/2025
A Maryland man who was in the U.S. legally was deported to El Salvador and imprisoned there because of an “administrative error,” Trump administration officials said in a court filing on Monday. The man has lived in the U.S. since 2019 and his wife and 5-year-old child are both U.S. citizens.
nytimes.com
U.S. Says Deportation of Maryland Man Was an ‘Administrative Error’
Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, who was in the U.S. legally, is now in prison in El Salvador, and federal courts have no jurisdiction to order his release, the Trump administration said in a court filin...
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
FT ed board weighs in on the White House war on federal statistics. I hope more media outlets do as well. Still waiting for more market participants who rely on these critical data series to speak up. www.ft.com/content/a2cb...
ft.com
The White House war on federal statistics
Economists and scientists worry over disappearing data and advisory groups
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Upjohn Institute @upjohninstitute.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
Before becoming parents, men and women increasingly move to higher-paying employers and to higher-paying roles with current employers. After childbirth, men stay on this upward path while women move to lower-paying employers, the research finds.
upjohn.org
Gender pay gap widends at childbirth, research finds
Throughout their careers, U.S. women earn less, on average, than do men. New research funded by the Upjohn Institute’s Early Career Research Awards program shows how drastically parenthood widens…
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Ellen Nakashima @ellenwapo.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
NEW: Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.)& Trump's former NatSec Advisor Matt Pottinger make the case that funding for scientific R&D isn't a gift to academia. It's vital to U.S. national security, as China, the United States' primary strategic adversary, is already investing heavily in R&D. shorturl.at/PgUK0
shorturl.at
Opinion | Funding for R&D isn’t a gift to academia
Investing in scientific research and development is vital to U.S. security.
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
NEW: @aclu.org obtained ICE's "Alien Enemies Act Validation Guide," confirming all it takes to be sent to rot in prison in El Salvador is being Venezuelan and 1) having a tattoo an ICE officer says is a "gang tattoo" and 2) displaying "logos," "symbols" or clothes an ICE officer says are gang signs.
ALIEN ENEMIES ACT:
ALIEN ENEMY VALIDATION GUIDE
In the case of: ________________________________ A-File No:__________________
1. The person named above is fourteen years or older:
2. The person named above is not a citizen or lawful permanent resident of the United
States:
3. The person named above is a citizen of Venezuela:
If any of these three requirements are not satisfied, the person named above shall not
be ordered removed under the Alien Enemies Act (AEA). In such a case, you should consult
your supervisor and the Office of the Principal Legal Advisor (OPLA), U.S. Immigration and
Customs Enforcement, and, where applicable, initiate removal proceedings under the
Immigration and Nationality Act (INA).
4. The person named above is validated as a member of Tren de Aragua (TDA), as
determined by reference to the following evaluation form:
Instructions: Complete the following validation evaluation form for each suspected
alien targeted for removal under the AEA, or, following apprehension, for each alien
potentially subject to an AEA removal.
After accounting for the two comments below, aliens scoring 8 points and higher are
validated as members of TDA; you should proceed with issuing Form AEA-21B, titled, “Notice
and Warrant of Apprehension and Removal under the Alien Enemies Act.” Aliens scoring 6 or
7 points may be validated as members of TDA; you should consult with a supervisor and
OPLA, reviewing the totality of the facts, before making that determination; if you determine
an alien should not be validated at this time as a member of TDA, when available, you should
initiate removal proceedings under the INA. Alien scoring 5 points or less should not be
validated at this time as member of TDA; when available, you should initiate removal
proceedings under the INA.The following alt-text is excerpted of a larger checklist, as the whole page doesn't fit within alt-text character limits.

Comment 2: For purposes of validating an alien as a member of TDA, at least one
scoring category must involve conduct occurring, or information received, within the past five
years.
Valuation Explanation
Category Definition Explanation Points
Judicial
Outcomes and
Official
Documents
a. Subject has been convicted of violating Title 18, United States Code,
Section 521 or any other federal or state law criminalizing or imposing
civil penalties for activity related to TDA
10
b. Court records (e.g., indictments, criminal complaints, sentencing
memorandums) identifying the subject as a member of TDA, describing
specific activity of TDA
5
Self-Admission
a. Subject self-identifies as a member or associate of TDA verbally or in
writing to law enforcement officer, even if that self identification to a
law enforcement officer is unwitting, e.g., through lawful interception of
communications.
10
Criminal
Conduct and
Information
a. Subject participates in criminal activity (e.g., narcotics trafficking,
human smuggling, etc.) with other members of TDA, including
preparatory meetings and significant incidents directly attributed to TDA
6
b. Law enforcement or intelligence reporting identifying subject as a
member of TDA, to include Bureau of Prisons validations and reliable
foreign partner information.
4
c. Credible testimonies/statements from victims, community members, or
informants that affirm the subject’s membership in or allegiance to TDA. 3
d. Detailed open-source media (e.g., newspapers, investigative journalism
reports) that describe arrest, prosecution, or operations of a subject as a
member of TDA
2
e. Subject conducts and/or facilitates business with TDA (e.g., money
laundering, mule, service provider) 2
Documents and
Communications
Final page: Association
a. Surveillance documentation that a subject is frequently observed closely
associating with known leaders and members of TDA 2
b. Subject part of group photos with two or more known members of TDA 2
c. Subject presently resides with known members of TDA 2
Total Points
VALIDATION DETERMINATION
Note: If any of the four requirements are not satisfied, do not
complete this validation determination.
Based on the validation guide and instructions above, including Comments 1 and 2, I find
that the person named above, _______________________________________________:
1. Is fourteen years or older;
2. Is not a citizen or lawful permanent resident of the United States;
3. Is a citizen of Venezuela; and
4. Is a member of Tren de Aragua.
Accordingly, the above-named person is validated as an Alien Enemy.
 _____________________ _________________________ __________________
 Name of Agent/officer Signature of agent/officer Date
 completing the form completing the form
 ______________________ _________________________ ____________________
 Name of Supervisor Signature of Supervisor Date
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Pam Herd @pamherd.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
Trump has cut the NIH budget by more than half in defiance of Congressionally mandated appropriations for the agency. No comparison historically, not even the Great Recession. This is clearly not legal and Congress needs to address it.
Graph from the Washington Post showing declines in spending at NIH. New grants cut from 1 billion to around 400 million. Overall grants down from 4.5 billion to 2.4 billion.
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
NEW! The Trump administration appears to have sent a married father with NO CRIMINAL RECORD in any country to rot in a prison in El Salvador because of a PAPERWORK ERROR. This man doesn’t even have tattoos! But his paperwork has two different peoples’ ID numbers listed and the wrong last name!
The U.S. government claims on Reyes Mota's I-213 form, a document the Department of Homeland Security uses to support that someone is deportable, that he "may be a Tren de Aragua associate." But in those same documents, the government says he has no criminal records or immigration history in the United States. The government also uses someone else's last name in several parts of the document, identifies him with female pronouns, and uses two different unique identification numbers that immigration authorities use to keep track of individuals, raising questions about the reliability of Trump officials accusations against him.
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Ken Opalo @kopalo.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
There’s a certain form of paternalism out there that refuses to acknowledge this fact. This, of course, isn’t just about personal income. It’s also about the sorts of social and physical “civic goods” that high-income affords societies.
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
This ridiculous deflection is such a non sequitur. Due process is what distinguishes us as a people from the monsters who do commit heinous crimes. If there’s no due process, we’re a society that can just lynch people on an accusation, with no need to get it right.
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Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
A pie graph worth keeping in mind as the NIH budget plummets jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... for 356 new FDA drugs approved
graph of NIH basisfor new drugs
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Virginia Gewin @virginiagewin.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
Just the beginning of real-world consequences to Trump scientific funding cuts: “The early results — a scientific first — were published Wednesday even as study participants worried that politics could cut their access to a possible lifeline.”
apnews.com
Researchers find a hint at how to delay Alzheimer's symptoms. Now they have to prove it
An experimental treatment appears to postpone Alzheimer's symptoms in some people genetically destined to get the disease at a young age.
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Mark Cuban @mcuban.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
From 2010 to 2016 (latest data I have ), NIH research contributed to EVERY drug approved by the FDA
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Jen Jennings @jenjennings.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
International students don’t take opportunities from American students. They create them. Mingyu Chen (PhD @princetonecon.bsky.social now@Amazon) built a powerful tool showing exactly how much international students contribute by state, degree type, & over time. Please share this tool far & wide!
ers.princeton.edu
By destination state in the US
Open in new window (recommended for mobile)
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