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Paolo Fornaro

@paolofornaro.bsky.social
408 followers 242 following 77 posts

Researcher at Labore. Interested in nowcasting, machine learning and big data, productivity analysis. Wannabe rockstar and videogame geek.

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Reposted by Paolo Fornaro
Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE @labore.fi · 08/10/2026
Laboren johtaja @maliranta.bsky.social ja johtava tutkija @paolofornaro.bsky.social käsittelevät Kansantaloudellisessa aikakauskirjassa julkaistussa tutkimuksessa luovaa tuhoa. Rinnakkaisartikkelissaan Maliranta käsittelee palkkamalttia.
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Alex Hanna @alexhanna.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Why isn't this on every TV screen and not the fairy tale of killer robots
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Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE @labore.fi · 07/10/2026
Laboren tutkimusohjaaja @ilkkakiema.bsky.social  ja ennustepäällikkö Juho Koistinen ovat antaneet lausunnon valtiovarainvaliokunnalle hallituksen vuoden 2027 talousarvioesityksestä.  Lue lausunto ➡️ labore.fi/julkaisu/suomi-poikennee-…
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Markku Lehmus @markkulehmus.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Julkaisimme tänään laajan kattauksen euroalueen talousnäkymiin, inflaatioon ja rahapolitiikkaan liittyviä artikkeleita. Luettavissa täältä: www.eurojatalous.fi
eurojatalous.fi
Etusivu
Suomen Pankin ajankohtaisia artikkeleita taloudesta
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Paolo Fornaro @paolofornaro.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
How did I (almost) miss this gem!?!
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Ilkka Kiema @ilkkakiema.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Valtion budjettiesityksessä esitetyn ennusteen mukaan Suomi rikkoo EDP-menettelyn (liiallisen alijäämän menettelyn) mukaisia nettomenojen rajoitteita jo ensi vuonna. Tämä vaikeuttaa tulevaa sopeutusta entisestään. Mm. tämä lausunnossamme valtiovarainvaliokunnalle: labore.fi/wp-content/u...
labore.fi
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Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE @labore.fi · 02/10/2026
Miten eri alojen palkkatasot muodostuva? 🤔 Laboren johtava tutkija @paolofornaro.bsky.social  kommentoi aihetta Talouselämän julkaisemassa jutussa.  Lue juttu (maksumuuri) ➡️ www.talouselama.fi/uutiset/a/0fc356…
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Otto Kyyrönen @ottokyyronen.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
STT:n toiminnan päättyminen heikentää suomalaisen uutistarjonnan moniäänisyyttä. Samalla Ylen rahoitusta leikataan ja yksityiset uutismediat edellyttävät enenevissä määrin joko käyttömaksuja tai käyttäjän dataa uutisten lukemiseksi. Kehityksen suunta on huolestuttava.
journalisti.fi
STT:n toiminta on päättymässä nykymuotoisena – muutosneuvotteluissa uhan alla lähes kaikki työpaikat - Journalisti
Uutinen päivittyy. Suomen tietotoimiston STT:n toiminta on päättymässä nykymuotoisena 31. maaliskuuta 2027. Tähän liittyen STT aloittaa 7. lokakuuta muutosneuvottelut. Ne...
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Lauri Finér @laurifinest.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Tässä jutussa kerrotaan tekoälymalleista, jotka eivät toimi. Silti niitä kutsutaan "kehittyneiksi tekoälyohjelmiksi". Ennen vanhaan toimimatonta ohjelmaa olisi kai kutsuttu "surkeaksi" tai ihan vaan "paskaksi", mutta maailma muuttuu. www.hs.fi/visio/art-20...
hs.fi
Tekoäly | Uutislähde: Tekoälymurrot ovat vasta jäävuoren huippu – tutkijat käyvät läpi kymmeniä tuhansia tapauksia
Johtavien tekoäly-yhtiöiden kehittyneimmät tekoälymallit ovat aiheuttaneet jopa kymmeniä tuhansia ongelmallisia tilanteita. Vakavimmat niistä ovat tietomurtoja.
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Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 25/09/2026
@lucafornaro.bsky.social writes for CEPR's #Europe2050 and argues that Europe's transformation into an innovation leader depends less on structural reform alone than on getting the macroeconomic mix right. Robust productivity and strong demand can be mutually reinforcing. ow.ly/PqH850ZQZF9
The European Union faces a choice: keep competing in low-tech sectors by compressing wages, or become a genuine technological leader through innovation. Writing for CEPR's Europe 2050 series, Luca Fornaro argues that this transformation depends less on structural reform alone than on getting the macroeconomic mix right. His starting point is the "European stagnation trap" of the 2010s, when fiscal austerity and a monetary policy constrained by the zero lower bound produced a decade of weak demand and depressed investment, business investment took ten years just to recover its pre-2008 peak, and the productivity gap with the United States widened as a result. Fornaro's central argument is that robust productivity growth and strong demand can be mutually reinforcing rather than in tension: faster productivity growth is disinflationary, which gives central banks room to support demand without stoking inflation, which in turn encourages the business investment that drives further productivity gains. He argues this "virtuous cycle" means the composition of any economic expansion matters as much as its scale, with booms driven by high-tech, tradable sectors proving far more sustainable than those driven by construction or credit expansion in non-tradables. On fiscal policy, he points to evidence that public R&D investment can be self-financing, given estimated returns of 140 to 210%, and argues that high-debt countries in particular stand to benefit from redirecting spending towards such high-return public goods rather than treating debt as a reason to retrench. His final concern is that public debt overhangs risk splitting the EU into a fiscally sound bloc that invests and grows, and a fiscally stagnant one that cannot, with capital flowing from the latter to the former and widening the divide; joint EU-level financing of public goods, he argues, is one way to guard against this two-speed outcome.
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Might Scare-ger @mikesager.net · 10/09/2026
They built a feature without thinking about how it would work. This is just idiots testing in production on an internet connected server. The answer to stop this idiocy is to use existing laws and legal resources to go after the humans who did this. Stop assigning agency to tools.
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Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE @labore.fi · 09/09/2026
⏰ Vielä ehdit hakea! ✨ Etsimme väitöskirjatutkijaa neljän vuoden määräaikaiseen työsuhteeseen. Hakuaika päättyy 13.9.2026. Lisätietoa ja hakuohjeet ➡️ labore.fi/julkaisu/labore-hakee-tal…
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 27/08/2026
US payroll records from 2016-2025 show that many workers have experienced a lasting reduction in their purchasing power. Erik Hurst & Christina Patterson argue that the lack of systematic wage indexation in the US is central to this story. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
 Figure shows real wage indices using CPS and ADP panel micro data. The CPS wage series comes from the weighted median nominal wage growth for all matched CPS respondents as reported by the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker. The ADP wage series combines the median nominal wage growth of job-stayers and job-changers. An index is created for both series using the monthly nominal growth rates, normalized to 1 in January 2017, and deflated by the corresponding monthly CPI-U in January 2017 prices. The red dashed line extrapolates the 2017–2019 linear trend in the ADP real wage index through December 2025.

Inflation in the US has receded from its 2022 peak. This column uses payroll records from 2016 to 2025 to show that many workers have experienced a lasting reduction in their purchasing power, and argues that the lack of systematic wage indexation in the US is central to this story. When inflation surged, most firms continued to grant familiar raises of 2% to 4%, allowing purchasing power to fall. Once inflation slowed, those raises again produced modest real wage growth but did not compensate workers for what they had already lost.
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Ilkka Kiema @ilkkakiema.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
1/2 Eri vero- ja menolajien muutokset vaikuttavat talouskasvuun eri tavoin, mutta tätä vaikutusta mittaavien fipokerrointen erottelu on vaikeaa. Tästä lisää blogissamme: labore.fi/julkaisu/fin...
labore.fi
Yksi luku, monta oletusta: mitä finanssipoliittinen kerroin todella kertoo? - Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE
Finanssipoliittinen kerroin ohjaa miljardiluokan säästö- ja veropäätöksiä. Blogissa käydään läpi, mitä kerroin kertoo – ja mitä sen tulkinta edellyttää.
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Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE @labore.fi · 19/08/2026
Kiinnostaako tutkijanura taloustieteen parissa?🎩 Etsimme väitöskirjatutkijaa neljän vuoden määräaikaiseen työsuhteeseen. Hakuaika päättyy 13.9.2026. Lisätietoa ja hakuohjeet ➡️ labore.fi/julkaisu/labore-hakee-tal…
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Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE @labore.fi · 20/08/2026
Julkiset T&K-tuet lisäävät yritysten omaa T&K-toimintaa, mutta vaikutus innovaatioihin ja tuottavuuteen on epävarmempi.  @paolofornaro.bsky.social  katsaus ▶️ labore.fi/julkaisu/julkiset-tk-tuet…
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 14/08/2026
the gaslighting over the pervert glasses is in a class of its own. They think we're idiots. www.engadget.com/2236054/meta...
engadget.com
Meta is giving away 15,000 AI glasses to blind and visually impaired people in Ireland - Engadget
Meta is donating 15,000 Ray-Ban Meta glasses to an Irish charity supporting people with sight loss.
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Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE @labore.fi · 04/08/2026
"Norjalaisten tutkimusten mukaan järjestäytymisasteen nousu yrityksessä kohottaa sekä palkkoja että tuottavuutta ja voi kiihdyttää luovaa tuhoa", kirjoittavat Laboren johtava tutkija @paolofornaro.bsky.social ja johtaja @maliranta.bsky.social @hs.fi ➡️
hs.fi
Vieraskynä | Kestävä kilpailukyky vaatii tasaväkistä sopimista
Tuottavuuden kasvu edellyttää sekä yritysten että yritysrakenteiden uudistamista. Se taas edellyttää, että työmarkkinoille luodaan uudistumiselle otolliset olosuhteet.
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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 21/07/2026
Look, on the one hand they allow perverts to covertly film your children and upload the footage to pedophelia forums. On the other hand, they can save someone half a second by projecting in front of them information they'd otherwise have to glance at their phone to get. What's a regulator to do?!
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Paolo Fornaro @paolofornaro.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
The transatlantic divide in labour’s share of income cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
The transatlantic divide in labour’s share of income
Across advanced economies, workers have been receiving a smaller share of national incomes. This column compares the evolution of labour’s share of income in Europe and the US from 1960 to 2023. Europ...
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Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE @labore.fi · 27/05/2026
Toimiiko tutkimus- ja kehitystyön tuki? Johtava tutkija @paolofornaro.bsky.social ja tutkimusohjaaja @ilkkakiema.bsky.social tarkastelevat rahoituksen merkitystä T&K-toiminnalle. Lue blogi ➡️ labore.fi/julkaisu/toimiiko-tutkimu…
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NBER @nber.org · 11/05/2026
Offshoring intermediate inputs to China dramatically reduced R&D by Canadian firms, as lower costs of existing products weakened incentives to develop new products, from Wulong Gu, Alla Lileeva, and Daniel Trefler www.nber.org/papers/w35167
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 05/05/2026
T Takalo & O Toivanen find meaningful differences b/w R&D tax credits & subsidies. Tax credits can be more effective by ensuring sufficient uptake whereas subsidy policy would benefit from internalisation of application costs & reducing costs/uncertainty to firms. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Figure shows project-level R&D subsidy rates awarded in Finland. The horizontal axis shows the percentage of an applicant’s R&D project costs subsidized by the government agency and the vertical axis shows the fraction of applications for each subsidy rate decision. 

R&D subsidies and tax credits are widely used around the world to encourage private sector R&D by reducing its cost for firms. This column argues that these policy tools have meaningful differences that should be considered in innovation policy and by those conducting research on the topic. R&D tax credits are a rule-based registration system whereas R&D subsidies are a discretionary examination system. R&D tax credit policy can be made more effective by ensuring sufficient uptake and removing firm-specific caps, whereas R&D subsidy policy can be made more effective by internalising the application costs and reducing its costs and uncertainty to firms.
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Paolo Fornaro @paolofornaro.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Very interesting analysis. The weaker US job ladder has slowed wage growth cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
The weaker US job ladder has slowed wage growth
Since the 1980s, real wages in the US have grown only slowly, even as productivity has continued to rise. This column shows that a weaker job ladder helps explain why. Employed workers now receive bet...
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Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE @labore.fi · 02/04/2026
"Öljyn hinnanmuutokset voimistavat suhdannevaihteluita" Laboren kevään 2026 talousennusteen artikkelissa tarkastellaan, mitä makrotaloustieteellinen kirjallisuus kertoo öljyn hintashokkien vaikutuksista. Laatinut Laboren johtava tutkija @paolofornaro.bsky.social. Lue! ➡️ labore.fi/julkaisu/olj...
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 27/03/2026
A Cesa-Bianchi, @apferrero.bsky.social @lucafornaro.bsky.social & M Wolf examine how industrial policies shape global imbalances. Countries negatively affected by those imbalances should include industrial and innovation policies as part of their policy toolkit. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Figure shows industrial policy, manufacturing employment, and TFP growth. Each bubble represents a country. The x-axis shows the average industrial policy intensity over the 2002-2019 period. The y-axis shows the change in manufacturing employment share (left panel) and the log change in TFP (right panel), on average, over the same period.

Industrial policies are a key feature of many countries running persistent trade surpluses. This column develops a framework to examine how industrial policies shape global imbalances and asks whether countries should worry about trade deficits, in the context of the ‘Second China Shock’ affecting mostly innovation-intensive high-tech sectors. The findings suggest that countries negatively affected by global imbalances should include industrial and innovation policies as part of their policy toolkit.
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Hadas Weiss @hadas.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
europeans when asked to help unblock the strait of hormuz
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Frances: Meh and Loving It @francesmeh.reviews · 12/03/2026
Can this be a solution?
that twitter billionaire's dumbass grok image proposing oil transfer by land through what looks like oman and uae, both currently in range of iranian drones and missiles. the trucks have been replaced by a giant slip n' slide running between the ships and a caption that reads "Pour Oil into Giant Slip n' Slide"
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Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE @labore.fi · 10/03/2026
"Alkuvuonna Suomen taloudessa näkyi hienoista kasvua, mutta Lähi-idässä leimahtanut sota uhkaa nyt romuttaa sen", kirjoittaa @iltalehti.fi tämän päivän lehdessä. Asiantuntijana haastattelussa Laboren ennustepäällikkö Juho Koistinen.
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Paolo Fornaro @paolofornaro.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Torille?
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Ed Newton-Rex @ednewtonrex.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
In the House of Lords today, a government minister refused to rule this out. To be clear, this would amount to legalising theft. It would fly in the face of public opinion on what is fair, and would mean a surrender of British creatives' work by this Labour government. 3/4
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
6/6 To put it another way, this means that rather than allowing European policymakers to decide what is in Europe's best interest, Europe should allow foreign policymakers to decide, as I explain below. carnegieendowment.org/china-financ...
carnegieendowment.org
Which Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy?
The decision Americans must make about industrial policy is whether policies that drive the nature and direction of the U.S. economy should be designed at home or abroad by its trade partners. In a hy...
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Paolo Fornaro @paolofornaro.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
It’s the most wonderful time of the year…
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Tilastokeskus @stat.fi · 13/02/2026
Varoitus! ⚠️ Tilastokeskuksen nimissä on lähetetty viime päivinä huijausviestejä yritysvastaajille. Viestin otsikkona on "Tietopyyntö tilastollista analyysiä varten". Viestiin ei tule vastata, eikä sen linkkejä klikata. Tilastokeskuksesta tulevat viestit tunnistaa lähettäjän stat.fi-osoitteesta.
Kuva huijausviesti
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Jussi Systä @jussisysta.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Aikamoinen lista tärkeitä tilastoja lakkautusuhan alla Tilastokeskuksen määrärahojen leikkausten vuoksi. Muun muassa väestöennuste, asuntojen vuokrat, teollisuuden uudet tilaukset ja työtaistelutilasto ja moni muu. Ei ole löysää, mistä leikata, vaan tärkeää tietoa katoaa. stat.fi/fi/uutinen/T...
stat.fi
Tilastokeskuksen tilastotuotantoa lakkautus- ja supistusuhan alla | Tilastokeskus
Tilastokeskuksen määrärahoihin kohdistuu hallituskaudella lähes 6 miljoonan euron leikkaukset, mikä on noin 10 prosenttia vuoden 2023 määrärahoista. Henkilöstön määrä on supistumassa hallituskaudella ...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
This morning on @cnbc.com, B of A said the “K-shaped” economy is increasingly about not just the split between high and low-income — but high and MIDDLE-income consumers.
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
2/6 And as Marriner Eccles, FDR's Fed chairman, explained in the 1930s, this creates a dangerous illusion. The extent of business profits depends almost wholly on the purchasing power of ordinary people, which in turn depends on wages.
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
1/11 SCMP: "China’s potential growth rate could fall to about 2.5 per cent in the coming years unless action is taken, prominent Chinese economist Zhou Tianyong has warned." sc.mp/itwrt?utm_so...
sc.mp
China’s future growth rate could drop to 2.5% without market reforms: economist
China will struggle to keep growth above 4 per cent unless there is a ‘strong turnaround’ in productivity and consumer spending, economist warns.
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Colin @colin-fraser.net · 06/02/2026
It’s called R
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Hendrik-Jan @slowpokedj.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Europeans after managing to prevent the collapse of NATO for another 1-2 weeks… #Europe #Rutte
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Paolo Fornaro @paolofornaro.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Quite interesting, didn't expect Finland to be so high up. The table is from the Daily shot
Table which indicates the size of venture capital funding per capita for a number of countries. Top country is US, followed by Singapore, Israel and Finland
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 13/01/2026
Large & persistent changes in tariffs affect firms' #innovation decisions and the pattern of technological hegemony. Countries should be wary of using trade policies to boost innovation, as the strategy may easily backfire. @lucafornaro.bsky.social & Martin Wolf cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Image shows the impact of import tariffs on high-tech goods imposed by the home country. Top left shows Home GDP, income decomposition; top right shows Foreign GDP, income decomposition; bottom left shows Home GDP, expenditure decomposition; bottom right shows foreign GDP, expenditure decomposition.

The Trump administration’s sweeping tariff measures are intended to increase the competitiveness of US firms – especially in high-tech sectors – and reduce US trade deficits. This column discusses the impact of trade policies on innovation and technological hegemony. The analysis suggests that large and persistent changes in tariffs are likely to affect firms’ innovation decisions and the pattern of technological hegemony. However, countries should be wary of using trade policies to boost innovation by their domestic high-tech firms, since the strategy may easily backfire.
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Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE @labore.fi · 13/01/2026
Suomessa yritysrakenteiden uudistuminen on ollut 2010-luvulla vilkkaampaa kuin Yhdysvalloissa, selviää @labore.fi tuoreesta analyysistä. Sen laativat johtaja @maliranta.bsky.social ja johtava tutkija @paolofornaro.bsky.social. Tiedote ▶️ labore.fi/julkaisu/suo... Analyysi ▶️ labore.fi/julkaisu/kas...
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funcas.bsky.social @funcas.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Nuevo episodio de Future is Blue. Hablamos con @LucaFornaro.bsky.social y @miguelgonzsim.bsky.social sobre fiscalidad, innovación, aranceles y la productividad europea. ¿Qué puede hacer Europa para salir del estancamiento? Escúchalo aquí: share.transistor.fm/s/7c29062f
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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 24/11/2025
"Russia is an undefeatable juggernaut against which Ukraine could never hope to score victories. That's why it's imperative we limit Ukraine's military size so as to give Russia confidence Ukraine won't attack it." Do these people fucking hear themselves?
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Luca Fornaro @lucafornaro.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Are public debts in the European Union sustainable? This recent article is a great introduction to this topic, I learned a lot by reading it. One thing that struck me is that debt sustainability analyses typically abstract from the impact of fiscal policy on productivity growth.
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Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE @labore.fi · 08/10/2025
Palkkahajonta on kasvanut Suomessa tasaisen varmasti. Taustalla vaikuttavat erityisesti toimialarakenteen muutokset ja ammattien palkkaerojen kasvu, jotka muovaavat työmarkkinoiden dynamiikkaa, johtava tutkija @paolofornaro.bsky.social Laboresta kirjoittaa. Lue koko juttu ▶️ labore.fi/t&y/mista-pa...
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Paolo Fornaro @paolofornaro.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
For the Helsinki crowd, lots of nice proposals on omastadi, here is one on offering more reading opportunities in public spaces omastadi.hel.fi/processes/os...
omastadi.hel.fi
Ruutu pois ja lukemaan! - Ehdotukset - Osallistuva budjetointi 2025-2026 - OmaStadi
OmaStadi on Helsingin tapa toteuttaa osallistuvaa budjetointia.
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 03/10/2025
Administrative data from US workers' paycheques and firms' payrolls show considerable monthly fluctuations in earnings. Pay instability is widespread and represent a genuine, welfare-relevant risk. @ganong.bsky.social, P Noel, C Patterson, J Vavra, A Weinberg cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Graph of the heterogeneity of earnings volatility for salaried and hourly workers measured as a change from the previous month.

Over the past decade, cities and states in the US have enacted ‘fair workweek’ laws to stabilise worker schedules. This column uses administrative data on US workers’ paycheques and firms’ payrolls to document considerable monthly fluctuations in earnings. Pay instability is widespread, disproportionately hits lower‑paid hourly workers, and is largely driven by firms’ labour demand rather than worker-related determinants such as childcare demands. These fluctuations represent genuine, welfare-relevant risk that materially shapes household decisions and has attendant effects on the economy.
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Paolo Fornaro @paolofornaro.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Reforming the education of economists in Europe: Breaking the tyranny of the top five
Many European countries have adopted the American model of doctoral training and academic evaluation. While this model suits America’s vast, mobile labour market, in Europe it has created perverse incentives and distorted research priorities. This column argues that Europe needs a more pluralistic, socially grounded, and inclusive system for the training of economists. It proposes a two-track approach for PhD training and evaluation that balances both frontier research and applied economics and policy. Europe should also consider broader evaluation and promotion criteria, more diversified PhD programmes, invest in policy-oriented research institutes, and promote the social relevance of the discipline.
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