Les tarifs et les stablecoins sont-ils en train de tuer l’industrie américaine ?

Puntata podcast · Macro Musings with David Beckworth · 19/05/2025 · 1 h

YouTube video by Mercatus Center

On strength lost, strength regained, and the scars that shape an economy.

Public debt-to-GDP ratios have climbed to historic highs in most advanced economies. This column studies the connection between productivity growth, fiscal policy, and public debt. Using a theoretical model, it argues that a feedback loop is possible between fiscal policy and growth. Large primary surpluses are associated with fiscal distortions which depress investment and productivity growth, and lead to further pressure on public debt-to-GDP ratios. A fall into fiscal stagnation can result from hysteresis effects or pessimistic animal spirits. Meanwhile, exiting fiscal stagnation requires large policy interventions that reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio, such as credible pro-growth strategies.

This paper describes the stylized facts characterizing periods of exceptionally large capital inflows in a sample of 70 middle- and high-income countr…

A Financial Times Book of the YearA ProMarket Book of the Year“Superbly argued and important…Donald Trump is in so many ways a product of the defective capitalism described in The Great Reversal. What...

The surpluses of Edwardian Britain were not benign and should not be used to justify similar surpluses in Japan, Germany, and elsewhere.

Accelerating the transition to a green economy is a necessity. This column argues that the green transition will create trade-offs for central banks. Phasing out polluting technologies is likely to temporarily slow down productivity growth, thus creating inflationary pressures. If central banks choose to ‘look through’ and let inflation temporarily rise, inflation expectations may de-anchor. A tight monetary policy approach, instead, will lead to unemployment, lower investments in green technologies, and potentially permanent damages to GDP and the green transition. Fiscal and credit policies that sustain green investments may be the best option to address these trade-offs.

Accelerating the transition to a green economy is a necessity. This column argues that the green transition will create trade-offs for central banks. Phasing out polluting technologies is likely to temporarily slow down productivity growth, thus creating inflationary pressures. If central banks choose to ‘look through’ and let inflation temporarily rise, inflation expectations may de-anchor. A tight monetary policy approach, instead, will lead to unemployment, lower investments in green technologies, and potentially permanent damages to GDP and the green transition. Fiscal and credit policies that sustain green investments may be the best option to address these trade-offs.