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Paddy Carter

@paddycarter.bsky.social
3.6K followers 1.2K following 2K posts

Head of development economics at British International Investment, formerly CGD, ODI, lapsed academic economist and macroeconomics hobbyist. sites.google.com/site/paddycarter

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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 11h
And Iceland.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 13h
Acemoglu should win it again for taking revolutionary bolshevism mainstream i.e. Automation and Repression: economics.mit.edu/sites/defaul...
economics.mit.edu
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 16h
absurd in comparison to the sums usually given to refugees
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 16h
a questionable decision by the International Rescue Committee to help Trump give absurd sums to Afrikaans "refugees" cis.org/Rush/Trump-R...
cis.org
Trump Rekindles Biden-era Relationship with Refugee NGO
The Trump administration has awarded the New York-based non-profit International Rescue Committee (IRC) – a vocal critic of the administration – a $20 million contract to provide virtual professional ...
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
er ...
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
presumably firms are going to start using AI price setting. In another context, someone was telling me how AI capacity to cooperative is astonishing (i.e. not act as decentralised rational actors in econ sense) so I suppose we are going to see tacit collusion between AI price setters
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Whatever the barriers are, the Chinese seem to have overcome them en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTR-PM and this one is at least under construction, currently claiming 2029 completion: www.gevernova.com/nuclear/carb...
en.wikipedia.org
HTR-PM - Wikipedia
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Interesting to read alongside voxdev.org/topic/method...
voxdev.org
Does Africa need development economics?
Ken Opalo on the craft of policymaking and the economic research that Africa needs.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Judging by my hip pain progression I want this available on the NHS within 5 years please www.sciencedaily.com/releases/202...
sciencedaily.com
Goodbye joint replacements? Stanford scientists found a way to regrow cartilage and stop arthritis
Scientists have found a surprising way to regrow damaged knee cartilage by blocking a protein that becomes more abundant with age. In old mice, the treatment restored naturally lost cartilage and also...
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
yeah yeah kiddo, this is payback for the three hours queuing for Nemesis at Alton Towers
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
for reasons I cannot explain this scared the pants off me www.itv.com/watch/chorlt...
itv.com
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
but there are large effects on the taxes paid by those wealthy individuals and the firms they own. Their firms shrink or are acquired by other domestic firms.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
here is ungated version of paper in new AER about what happens when wealth taxes cause rich people to leave the country. The economic impact looks small and if I am reading correctly, if tax cut ought to raise £1, you lose 24p because of behaviour response - in aggregate. But ...
cowles.yale.edu
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
imo that makes things ambiguous - could say CB is helping out capital, could say CB is responding to people's widespread dislike of inflation
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Oh, because falling U and rising wages would be occuring alongside inflation?
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
What the mechanism there though? U shrinks, bargaining power up, labor share up capital down, capital grumpy ... but what stops U falling further, return on investment and hence rate of investment falling?
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
other than that worker effort argument, the other reason I can imagine small U being inefficient could be if entrants or growing firms find it too hard to hire, having to lure workers from existing jobs (with "too hard" necessarily meaning needing too many HR staff) but no obvs that inefficient
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
God my memory for this stuff has just gone... this is the sort of argument I recall for u>o "Firms set wages above the market-clearing level to induce effort, which generates involuntary equilibrium unemployment" and I presume there is an efficiency point tied to effort
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I can imagine a zero employment planned economy or market plus govt workfare or whatever, I presume we are appending "in a market economy" to that claim
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
is "zero unemployment is not feasible" a statement you would agree with? I am not sure the problem is that as unemployment approaches zero the HR department in each firm would get too large
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I can sort of get the idea that the labour market might be inefficiently tight - unemployment too low - if it makes recruiting to slow or expensive or something, but they seem to have this idea of recruiters needed to "service a vacancy" - I don't understand what that is
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This is interesting. I suppose one might still believe that multinationals are ripping off poor countries because they ought to be paying even more tax. Zucman is hardly a shill for big business. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
This paper builds and analyzes a new global macrohistorical database of effective tax rates on capital and labor in 154 countries. We establish a new stylized fact: While effective capital tax rates fell in developed countries between 1965 and 2018, they rose in developing countries after 1990. Multiple country-, sector-, and firm-level research designs suggest that trade openness contributed to this rise by increasing the share of output produced in corporations and larger firms, where effective capital taxation is higher. In contrast to a common view, globalization appears in many countries to have supported governments' ability to tax capital
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I've got a vague memory of someone eviscerating this, with a history of self help groups in West, but I don't have that knowledge myself. I'd say self help helps, nobody ever thought it made poor countries rich
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
here: brewyork.co.uk
brewyork.co.uk
Home | Brew York Craft Beer
Brew York - Award winning craft beer. Two breweries located across York brewing a wide variety of beer. Shop online now. Free delivery when you spend £50
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I was in York last weekend and was paying £3.80 I nearly fainted
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I couldn't make up my mind about Holden - I mean whether he's a depiction of anything that really exists (or close to it) - which is not necessarily necessary in a depiction of evil in art ... but he is rather over the top
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I reckon the baddies in Andor are excellent - most of the time they don't seen especially bad and they just seem like people doing their jobs
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
pick of this week's NBER WPs. The commoditization of labour: masaofukui.github.io/Commoditizat... Atlantic current collapse could be good for North Africa/Southern Europe bfi.uchicago.edu/working-pape... As of 2026, humanity is below replacement fertility. www.nber.org/papers/w35809
masaofukui.github.io
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
You mean!
The people's republic of south London
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
OK ... but MAGA has a track record of doing things people would have said in advance was not possible, so I don't think it's that surprising a lot of people's instinct is that they will pull off something outrageous
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I wonder if UK HMG sends people on the World Bank's courses about how to use administrative data to improve public service delivery courses.wbginstitute.org/course/gover...
courses.wbginstitute.org
Government Analytics: Fall 2026
The course explores how government analytics can leverage government-wide microdata to evaluate every team in every public organization, thus addressing information gaps on public sector performance a...
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
if you have experience in loan syndication / distribution and fancy working on something a little different - emerging and frontier market assets - we are hiring for a senior position: isw.changeworknow.co.uk/bii/vms/e/ca...
isw.changeworknow.co.uk
Director and Head of Distribution
About BII British International Investment (BII) is the UK’s leading development finance institution, wholly owned by the UK Government. Our primary mission is to address global development challenges...
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Ok this justifies the gazillions $ spent on AI I'm a convert
share.google
AI machine 'helps save 25 million Lego bricks from landfill'
The automated technology can sort up to 100,000 pieces a day at a Lancashire mill.
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Reposted by Paddy Carter
Bartapest @bartapest.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
China’s new 134km Pinglu Canal creates a direct river-to-sea gateway to #ASEAN, cutting shipping routes by 560km and logistics costs up to 30% - a game-changer connecting Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing to booming regional #trade: www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/... #China #Vietnam
aljazeera.com
What’s the Pinglu Canal, China’s new gateway to Southeast Asia?
China's first modern river-to-sea canal could significantly cut down time and costs of trade to Southeast Asia.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Emily St John Mandel is imo the best contemporary sci fi writer, style wise
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Ursula le Guin was just great without an editor - Jack Vance has style (but needed trimming here and there) - but otherwise God yes I so often read sci fi thinking I could cut 25% and leave a better book. Just flabby writing.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
My most frequent use of copilot is compensating for outlook's dreadful search function. Find me that email about X
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I feel like there are lots of firms in LMICs that cannot obtain all the capital they need. I reckon there might be one or two in UMIC too. I just WB announce something with BNDES in Brazil for hard to decarbonise sectors, perhaps them
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This is bait.gif
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
UK development finance helping with that: ar2024.bii.co.uk/building-the...
ar2024.bii.co.uk
Building the infrastructure for India’s green transition - BII
This innovative partnership is developing transmission and battery storage projects across India.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
And still early days with batteries ramp up
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
You mean: The Rise of the Planet of the Mice.
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Reposted by Paddy Carter
Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Michael Kremer to be World Bank Group Chief Economist (effective October 1). www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
worldbank.org
Michael Kremer Appointed as World Bank Group Chief Economist
WBG President Ajay Banga announced that Nobel laureate Michael Kremer has been appointed as World Bank Group Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics, bringing one of the wo...
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Check out Silent Alarm remixed, if you have not.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Oh god. I am reading Godless Youth at the moment, here is the page I happen to be on:
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I think the only explanation for, well, everything, is that approaching 50% of people are mean, stupid or both. Which is a pretty negative take on humanity. But where are the not mean and stupid billionaires? This exceeds my negativity.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I still can't quite accept that so many otherwise intellectually competent people (which I mostly presume of the non-inherited rich) cannot see what an appalling evil clown show MAGA is and are, I presume, dreadful racists. I realise this means I am not believing the evidence of my own eyes.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
You ask a banker about the counterfactual they think you're asking them to describe possible alternative universes.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
God yes. But see my reply to myself - there are better ways of talking about the idea
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
For some reason the wor always triggers a reaction about ridiculous imaginary scenarios. Whereas if you just say the same thing in different words - such as why are we needed and what different are we making - people can answer without wigging out
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