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Kevin Carey

@kevincareywb.bsky.social
1.4K followers 359 following 3.8K posts

World Bank Macro / Climate Opinions are mine and not WB X: Kevin_Carey_WB

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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 20h
The start of a fine breadcrumb trail in the NYT review of the reopening of the Goya Museum in Zaragoza, Spain: he was a member of the Royal Aragonese Economic Society of Friends of the Country, which among other things founded Spain's first chair of economics (1784). www.nytimes.com/2026/10/09/a...
nytimes.com
At a Revamped Museum, Goya’s Nightmares Seem Scarily Relevant (Gift Article)
The artist’s portrayals of uncertainty and social upheaval are likely to resonate with visitors to an expanded museum in Zaragoza, Spain, that opens Friday.
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 23h
"In view of the evolving conditions and to ensure orderly functioning of the foreign exchange market, the Reserve Bank of India has today issued two circulars - [...] announcing the following regulatory measures ..." www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_P...
rbi.org.in
Press Releases | Official Website of Reserve Bank of India
Press Releases - Reserve Bank of India
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 23h
"The anger over the voting lists has melded with grievances from young Indians struggling to find work, together presenting a stiff challenge to Modi." www.wsj.com/world/india/...
wsj.com
India Locks Down Heart of Capital to Thwart Voter Rights Protest
The anger over the voting lists has melded with grievances from young Indians struggling to find work.
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Also for World Bank & IMF Meetings followers, the WB has published 2 pager Macro-Poverty Outlooks & Poverty Equity Briefs for most developing countries. From a comment, Argentina will be of particular interest (next tweet) www.worldbank.org/en/publicati... www.worldbank.org/en/topic/pov...
worldbank.org
Macro Poverty Outlook
The Macro Poverty Outlook analyzes macroeconomic and poverty developments in developing countries.
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Enthusiasts for all things related to the World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok next week (you know who you are) may find useful the WB paper for the Development Committee meeting on the topic of private capital mobilization and jobs. www.devcommittee.org/content/dam/...
devcommittee.org
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
"Nigeria is proposing a measure to cap petrol prices at about 1,350 naira ($1.02) per litre, asking refiners and fuel importers to absorb temporary increases and recoup losses once costs ease, its finance minister said on Thursday." www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/nigeria...
cnbcafrica.com
Nigeria proposes petrol price cap to curb fuel cost volatility | CNBC Africa
ABUJA, Oct 8 (Reuters) – Nigeria is proposing a measure to cap petrol prices at about 1,350 naira ($1.02) per litre, asking refiners and fuel importers to absorb temporary increases and recoup losses ...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Zambia / IMF new ECF ($ 1.4bn) staff-level agreement (SLA): "Reforms will also strengthen fiscal risk management, improve oversight of FRA [Food Reserve Agency] operations, state-owned enterprises, and public-private partnerships, ..."
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
"A heuristic Ken [Opalo] uses for assessing a policymaker’s ability and ambition is whether they lead their speeches with the SDGs – “no ambitious minister should consider the SDGs as a goal for their country.” voxdev.org/topic/method...
voxdev.org
Does Africa need development economics?
Ken Opalo on the craft of policymaking and the economic research that Africa needs.
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
“Investors are no longer just debating France’s fiscal trajectory; they also have to consider the possibility that a future government might challenge the conventional treatment of some sovereign debt,” Gregory Peters, co-chief investment officer of PGIM Credit, told me." www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Default May Be the Tail Risk Haunting French Bonds
Plus, a growing trade deficit, MAGA economics after Trump, and the Fed’s rate-hike outlook
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Mongolia / IMF staff visit: “In this context of a mining boom and supply-side shocks, the 2026 supplementary and 2027 draft budgets propose a large fiscal expansion, ..."
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Pakistan / IMF EFF 4th review SLA: "They [govt] remain committed to reducing debt rollover risks and servicing costs amid elevated gross financing needs, while advancing the development of the domestic government securities market and diversifying the investor base." www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
IMF Staff Complete the 2026 Article IV Consultation and Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on the Fourth Review for the Extended Fund Facility and the Third Review for the Resilience and Sustainability Fac...
IMF staff and the Pakistani authorities held discussions under the 2026 Article IV consultation and have reached a staff-level agreement on the fourth review under Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility (E...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
From The Theory of the Leisure Class (1899) by Thorstein Veblen, chapter III (Conspicuous Leisure): "Under the requirement of conspicuous consumption of goods, the apparatus of living has grown so elaborate and cumbrous, in the way of dwellings, furniture, ..."
https://www.ft.com/content/6843c0fe-b1cf-46f9-85d6-d1d4a7da6601
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
How it started / how it's going
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Congo (Brazzaville) / IMF mission in context of ECF request: "[engagement focused on] measures to strengthen fiscal resilience and enhance debt sustainability, ..."
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Nigeria / World Bank Nigeria Development Update. The recent poverty story in one chart: poverty has been rising, related to macroeconomic volatility, and reduction is going to require growth and disinflation (inflation adverse effect on the poor). www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Ghana / Cocobod: "The debt, issued on Monday, carried an interest rate of 11% and will mature in June 2027, according to results of the debt auction shared by Cocoa Capital, the special purpose vehicle through which the debt was issued." www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/ghanas-...
cnbcafrica.com
Ghana’s cocoa regulator secures $288 million for farmer purchases | CNBC Africa
ACCRA, Oct 8 (Reuters) – The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) has secured 3.39 billion cedis ($288.02 million) through the issue of short-term debt on the domestic market, results of the debt sale show, fu...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Martin Wolf: "Yet do not forget that we consume products, not crude oil."
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Yemen / IMF new staff monitored program: "Monetary policy implementation will be anchored by clear quantitative targets, including limits on [CB] financing of the budget. A market-determined exchange rate will act as a shock absorber & protect external buffers ... " www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Iraq: "The unofficial rate had risen to more than 1,600 dinars to the dollar before the official devaluation was announced. After the announcement of the new official exchange rate, the market rate jumped to more than 1,700 dinars to the dollar." apnews.com/article/iraq...
apnews.com
Iraq devalues its currency as US-Iran war disrupts oil shipping routes
Iraq has devalued its currency, changing the official exchange rate from 1,300 to 1,500 Iraqi dinars to the U.S. dollar.
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
"Rather than selling bonds, the People’s Bank of China this year has been a net buyer. That suggests Beijing now sees lower borrowing costs as helpful for struggling parts of the economy." www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
wsj.com
Bond Yields Are Surging Around the World—but Not in China
Chinese government bond prices have risen this year, pulling down the yield on China’s benchmark 10-year bond on Wednesday to as low as 1.7%.
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Bolivia / IMF new EFF staff report. Very useful box (Box 2) on creditor composition. Most of the Eurobonds are owned by Gestora, the pension fund. www.imf.org/en/publicati...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
"Bert Hofman, a former China country director for the World Bank, said reducing tax rebates might have a bigger impact than allowing the renminbi to appreciate in terms of freeing up government revenue for domestic priorities." www.nytimes.com/2026/10/06/b...
nytimes.com
The Hidden Policies That Power China’s Export Boom (Gift Article)
Huge tax breaks and a weak currency sustain exports, widen the government budget deficit and complicate the country’s efforts to rebalance its economy.
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Malawi / IMF mission on potential new program: "The authorities have also taken decisive actions, such as fuel and sugar pricing reforms, which helped improve market functioning. Discussions are advanced on measures to reduce the burden of high public debt." www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Senegal -- presentation to debt investors from today (via Ministry of Finance website). apimfb.finances.gouv.sn/files/minfin...
apimfb.finances.gouv.sn
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Rwanda / IMF ECF 1st review SLA: "Fiscal performance has been robust with a deficit falling to 4.8 percent in fiscal year 2025/26. Tax collections were strong, while the full pass-through of higher international prices to pump prices limited fuel subsidies." www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
"EMDEs with a higher share of short-term debt face median yields of about 7 percent, versus 6.1 percent for those with lower short-term debt." blogs.worldbank.org/en/developme...
blogs.worldbank.org
Why have rising sovereign bond yields in advanced economies not hit developing economies harder?
Advanced economy bond yields have surged since the Middle East conflict, yet emerging market and developing economies have avoided the severe fallout often associated with higher global rates. Dollar-...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
"Senegal has told creditors that it is targeting an “agreement in principle” with its official lenders and bondholders by December, three sources told Reuters." www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/senegal...
cnbcafrica.com
Senegal targets debt deal with official creditors, bondholders by December – sources | CNBC Africa
DAKAR/LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) – Senegal has told creditors that it is targeting an “agreement in principle” with its official lenders and bondholders by December, three sources told Reuters. The count...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Ongoing debate about whether the rise in US & global long-term yields is inflation, or fiscal, or AI hyperscaler issuance. Another perspective today from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane: "In terms of the overall macro-financial impact of AI, ..."
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
"While other countries would be pleased with a 1.9 per cent inflation rate, decades of deflation in [Japan] have made these “normal” inflation levels, alongside a weak yen and energy shock, a bigger jolt to the economy." www.ft.com/content/f212...
ft.com
Chart of the Week: What’s driving the global bond sell-off?
Looking at the most cited factors reveals a mixed picture
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Somalia / IMF A4 mission: "Inflation rose sharply amid prolonged drought conditions and global trade disruptions, and is projected to reach 6.5 percent in 2026." www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Sri Lanka / IMF EFF 7th review SLA: "Efforts to strengthen public investment management should continue to address bottlenecks to capital spending execution, including to accelerate Cyclone Ditwah-related recovery and reconstruction." www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Was wondering if a Niger / Nigeria confusion could have economic implications ... www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/niger-o...
cnbcafrica.com
Niger or Nigeria? India probes soybean imports over suspected tax evasion, sources say | CNBC Africa
MUMBAI, Oct 5 (Reuters) – Indian customs authorities are investigating a surge in soybean imports declared as originating in Niger, suspecting the cargoes came from Nigeria and were mislabelled to eva...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Bolivia / IMF new EFF ($ 1.9bn): "The frontloaded fiscal effort includes phasing out remaining fuel subsidies through an automatic pricing mechanism alongside stronger and better-targeted social protection.” www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Senegal: "Out of 113 offshore and onshore [gas] blocks, 5 will be evaluated by Italian oil company Eni and 104 will be presented to investors on a roadshow, he [Energy Minister] said." www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/senegal...
cnbcafrica.com
Senegal power cuts highlight need to embrace gas, minister says | CNBC Africa
DAKAR, Oct 2 (Reuters) – Power cuts in Senegal in September have underscored the need to embrace gas as a means of electricity generation, the West African country’s energy minister said. ($1 = 577.00...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Cameroon / IMF post-financing assessment: "Fiscal policy weakened in 2025, with the overall deficit rising from 1.5% of GDP in 2024 to 2.1% of GDP. A modest further weakening is expected in 2026 with the international oil price shock generating sizeable fuel subsidies." www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Panama / SEC 18-K update. Nice table of public sector debt service showing big role of various multilateral and regional development banks. www.sec.gov/Archives/edg...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Martin Wolf: "My take from the IIF’s report is not that we are on the eve of disaster but that important countries are losing room for manoeuvre on an unsustainable long-run path. As the late economist Herbert Stein famously said, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
"His work brought him closer to Trump’s political orbit. In February, he accepted an award as the year’s top Hispanic political consultant at a gala at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, where he thanked Parscale." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Assassination Plot Allegation Lands a MAGA Fixer in Bolivia Jail
Nadia Beller accuses her former lover, the political consultant Fernando Cerimedo, of organizing a hit on her life.
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
"Today, Beijing’s priority is to make sure it has enough fuel supply at home rather than maximising profits for refineries. The global supply of crude oil for refinery feedstock is more volatile now than it was four years ago." www.wsj.com/business/ene...
wsj.com
China Has the Power to Bail Out the Diesel Market. Will It Use It?
Chinese oil refineries are only using 75% of their capacity at the moment.
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Estonia / IMF Selected Issues paper on energy transition. Distinctive legacy energy source, oil shale which EU ETS (and other issues) make increasingly uneconomic. Attarat in Jordan is one of the few examples of this technology outside Estonia. www.imf.org/en/publicati...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Senegal (Reuters): "The call, which is scheduled for Oct. 6, “will allow the authorities to share with external creditors an update on Senegal’s economic and financial situation, its economic reform program, and its debt treatment strategy, ..."
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Not sure of the back story here, but this iteration of US Treasury OFAC Cuba sanctions whereby a Cuban could have a US bank account under certain circumstances and now, oops, actually they can't, seems potentially disruptive. ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/added/2...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Indonesia: "A slate of stocks fell by more than 14%, close to the maximum limit in a single day. That list included ride-hailing firm GoTo Gojek Tokopedia, which has dropped 14% in both sessions." www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
msn.com
MSN
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"A document provided to media on Monday, and signed by finance minister Cheikh Diba, showed Senegal had hired Sodali as part of its effort to identify bondholders and “facilitate communications” with them." www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/senegal...
cnbcafrica.com
Senegal hires adviser Sodali to seek out bondholders | CNBC Africa
DAKAR (Reuters) – Senegal has hired advisory firm Sodali & Co to help identify its international bondholders, as it starts the process of trying to restructure billions of dollars of its public debt. ...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Liberia / IMF program reviews: "Publishing the governance diagnostic report and implementing a focused action plan would signal to development partners the authorities’ firm commitment to addressing institutional weaknesses and combating corruption." www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
“If you just take it at its face value, investors are buying up to 100 years of unsecured debt in a transformational technology,” says Peters of PGIM. “Not to overly simplify it, but 100 years is a long time. I don’t think it’s good risk reward ... it’s unknowable.”
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Gabon / IMF mission: "Technical discussions on fiscal and public debt developments, along with the outlook, will continue in the coming weeks, with a view to paving the way for program discussions." www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Cat makes it to slide of NBER Firms & Technology Program presentation (the person with the cat is the legendary Zvi Griliches (RIP), whose work is being discussed by Josh Lerner). www.nber.org/conferences/...
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Andorra / new base prospectus for Eurobond issuance (after all, how often are you going to do a deep read of the economy of Andorra?) www.luxse.com/pdf-viewer/1...
luxse.com
Luxembourg Stock Exchange
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Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Colombia / World Bank $200m development policy lending linked to earthquake recovery: "The operation will provide rapid budget support to address reconstruction needs following the earthquake ..."
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