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Oliver Meier

@olivermeier.bsky.social
785 followers 521 following 379 posts

Head of Programme on Nuclear and Multilateral Disarmament at the European Leadership Network @theeln.bsky.social‬, based in Berlin. WMD elimination through arms control, disarmament, nonproliferation. Personal views only.

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Reposted by Oliver Meier
Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 18h
“The demarche request appears to be an unusual administration effort to use allied government pressure to silence criticism from European citizens and Americans abroad” www.politico.com/news/2026/10...
politico.com
EU, Canada and Lithuania pull out of disinformation conference after US pressure
The Trump administration was bothered by panels that referred to the U.S. as a disinformation threat.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
3/3 Well, not anymore. Hymans was right to ask "whether a populist administration in Washington would be willing to trade Pittsburgh for Portland." Respect! www.nytimes.com/2026/10/06/u...
nytimes.com
What, Exactly, Did Trump Say About Iran Taking Out Los Angeles and San Diego?
President Trump’s comments caused an uproar from members of both parties. A White House official said he was taken out of context.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
2/ This was in response to a @thenonproreview.bsky.social article on "Upsetting the nuclear order: how the rise of nationalist populism increases nuclear dangers" by @marenvieluf.bsky.social and myself. At the time, I thought this argument may be a bit over the top. is.gd/Oc34Na
is.gd
Upsetting the nuclear order: how the rise of nationalist populism increases nuclear dangers
Nationalist populists as leaders of states that possess nuclear weapons undermine the nuclear order and increase nuclear dangers in novel, significant, and persistent ways. Such leaders talk differ...
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
1/ Four years ago, Jacques Hymans wrote that "populists are likely to be insensitive to nuclear threats to the political strongholds of their domestic opponents." www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Jacques E. C. Hymans, Associate Professor of International Relations, University of Southern California
Published in The Nonproliferation Review (Vol. 28, No. 1-3, 2021)
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
European Leadership Network (ELN) @theeln.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Is Iran’s leverage beginning to erode? The latest ELN Iran Briefing examines the shifting strategic debate in Tehran after Washington rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks. Read the full briefing here👇 mailchi.mp/europeanlead...
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
Gregory Koblentz @gregkoblentz.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Good summary of what is known so far RFI: Fatal laboratory-acquired infection in Irkutsk Region, Russia; possible pneumonic plague; 197 contacts hospitalized for observation via @beaconbio.bsky.social - beaconbio.org/en/report/?r...,
beaconbio.org
BEACON
Track biological threats, share vital information, and collaborate on solutions for community protection and preparedness.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Apparently no involvement of NATO non-nuclear weapon states, including Germany, at France's recent Poker exercise? united24media.com/war-in-ukrai...
united24media.com
France Just Rehearsed a Nuclear Strike With Rafales—Here’s How Operation Poker Works
A Le Parisien military report details how Rafale teams, refueled by A330 MRTT Phénix tankers, flew six to eight hours in France’s strategic nuclear exercise.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I have a new piece in @armscontrolnow.bsky.social with my take on the 2026 #NPTRevCon. It includes a few thoughts on how to address the structural problems that have plagued the NPT and make this review cycle more productive and interesting: www.armscontrol.org/node/15506
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
2/ Also a good opportunity to re-post my small @theeln.bsky.social piece on why the private sector is not going to solve the AI-related problems they it has caused: europeanleadershipnetwork.org?p=26270
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
Want to prevent nuclear war caused by AI? Count the private sector out
Drawing on parallels with the Manhattan Project, the ELN's Oliver Meier argues that AI companies cannot be relied upon to govern the risks their technology creates. Examining Anthropic co-founder Chri...
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
1/ Irony is dead: Donald Trump, the great moral authority, explains that a statement of intent by AI billionaires to reign in the technology that made them rich is "morally binding". www.nytimes.com/2026/09/29/u...
nytimes.com
At A.I. Event, Trump Asks Meta, OpenAI and Microsoft to Make Safety Decisions Themselves
President Trump’s meetings with tech leaders produced some voluntary safeguards and a commitment to rebrand artificial intelligence as “super intelligence,” the term that Mr. Trump prefers.
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
Sascha Schmidt @saschaschmidt.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Diese Abstimmung ist ein Skandal. Und vor dem Hintergrund der - zum Teil berechtigten - Vorwürfe der CDU in Bezug auf Antisemitismus in der Linken, umso mehr. Die CDU sollte auch den Antisemitismus in den eigenen Reihen angehen.
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
Georg Restle @georgrestle.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Zitat: „In einer Zeit, in der eine teilweise offen faschistische Partei (…) auf dem Weg zur Macht ist, entziehen sich die großen Publikumsmedien (…) ihrer Verantwortung, wenn sie weiterhin so tun, als würde die Linke die größte Gefahr für jüdische Sicherheit darstellen“ www.zeit.de/politik/deut...
zeit.de
Debatte um Antisemitismus: 150 jüdische Berliner kritisieren Antisemitismus-Vorwurf an die Linke
In einem offenen Brief kritisieren jüdische Berliner den Umgang mit der Linkspartei. Sie werfen Medien und Teilen der jüdischen Community »Instrumentalisierung« vor.
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
European Leadership Network (ELN) @theeln.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
@kjolvegeland.bsky.social writes that the CTBT is one of the last remaining legal frameworks underpinning European security. This commentary asks what the test-ban regime can teach us about building a new European security architecture. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/t...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
The Nuclear Test Ban and Europe’s Next Security Order
30 years since the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) opened for signature, many of the legal frameworks underpinning Europe's security have eroded. What can the test-ban regime teach us abo...
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
European Leadership Network (ELN) @theeln.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
A special episode of the Ok, Doomer! podcast, taking stock of what the treaty has achieved over the past three decades, why it remains an important part of the global nuclear order despite never entering into force, and the challenges it faces today. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/multimedia/o...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
Ok, Doomer! podcast: 30 years of the nuclear test ban
In our latest episode, we look at what the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) has achieved over the past three decades, why it remains an important part of the global nuclear order despite n...
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
European Leadership Network (ELN) @theeln.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
@janabaldus.bsky.social argues that despite the treaty’s successes, it faces renewed pressure, not only in upholding verification and strategic stability, but also in addressing the humanitarian and environmental consequences of nuclear explosions. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/w...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
We know how to detect a nuclear test. But why shouldn’t we conduct one?
30 years ago, the CTBT opened for signature. Despite its successes, the global norm against nuclear testing faces renewed pressure. The case for preserving the test-ban is not only about verification ...
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
European Leadership Network (ELN) @theeln.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
30 years ago, the CTBT opened for signature. Despite never entering into force, the treaty established a global norm around the prohibition of nuclear explosive testing. Marking this, @theeln.bsky.social is posting a series exploring what the treaty has achieved and what comes next 🧵
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
“Amodei urged the UN to pursue “narrow” international agreements that ‘every member can support’ on AI safety, such as a ban on the use of models to build biological weapons.” Can somebody tell Amodei that such an agreement already exists, and that it's called the Biological Weapons Convention?

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	The disclosure came hours after AI chiefs presented to the UN Security Council, calling for greater global co-operation to address safety issues.

Amodei urged the UN to pursue “narrow” international agreements that “every member can support” on AI safety, such as a ban on the use of models to build biological weapons.

He warned it was possible runaway AI could threaten humanity, calling the technology “the most important global security issue facing the world today”.
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
The Daily Show @thedailyshow.com · 23/09/2026
Trump's rant at the U.N. shows he's not just a wannabe dictator, he's also a wannabe Real Housewife
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Odd, to suggest a linkage here? "Move came after Latvia agreed ⁠to abstain on an agreement among the EU member states to ​drop 2 billionaires from bloc's Russian sanctions list and to roll over remaining 3,000 ​individuals and entities for 2 years." www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
France agreed to open talks on Latvia joining nuclear deterrence initiative, Latvian leader says
Latvia's Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said on Tuesday that French President ​Emmanuel Macron had agreed to start ‌talks with his country about joining a French nuclear deterrence initiative and that...
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
How Much Has the U.S. Spent on the War in Iran? The Pentagon has given its most detailed estimate to date of the cost of the Iran war: $43.6 billion. Here’s how that breaks down. (No question that this is an underestimate of the true cost).
nytimes.com
U.S. Estimates It Spent $43.6 Billion on Iran War. Here's a Breakdown.
A detailed look at the $43.6 billion the Pentagon has spent so far.
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Just had a quick read of the US-Greenland-Denmark agreement and it seems like a complete non-event. Trump threatened the territorial integrity of a NATO ally and got nothing.
stm.dk
Aftale mellem Grønland, Danmark og USA
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
What could possibly go wrong? "The startup wants to push how its Claude AI can direct ​robotic units to carry out science experiments with limited human intervention, one of the people said." (This from same "people" who urgently call for slower AI development, btw.) www.reuters.com/world/anthro...
reuters.com
EXCLUSIVE: Anthropic quietly sets up biology lab as it ramps AI drug program
At a time when fears of AI are gripping the public, the startup has built a wet lab — or ​place for physical experiments — in the San Francisco Bay Area, two people familiar with the matter said.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Dark: To celebrate delivery system for weapons of mass destruction the “living proof” of "the health" of the transatlantic relationship.🧐 breakingdefense.com?p=96128
breakingdefense.com
First German F-35 rolls off the line - Breaking Defense
German defense minister Boris Pistorius called the F-35 “a promise that Germany will step up to defend itself and defend its allies.”
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Now imagine that during a crisis an AI draws from a huge amount of data to conclude that Russia or China are preparing a nuclear first strike and an under-pressure analyst sends that immediately up the chain.
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
The launch of a sounding rocket from Hawaii tested technology for the Mk7 reentry vehicle being developed for the U.S. Navy’s new W93 nuclear warhead. Mk7 will also be used for Britain’s next warhead. First full Mk7 flight test is planned in two years. newsreleases.sandia.gov/atrax_test/
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Reading the @nytimes.com article, it sounds more like Putin is offering enticements to Trump. Not the other way around. 🧐https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/us/trump-putin-russia-sanctions.html
nytimes.com
Trump Wants Putin to End the War. He May Offer Russia Business Deals First.
A new sanctions bill is meant to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to end the war in Ukraine. But President Trump is doubling down on a different approach: offering enticements to Russia.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Another tick on the "balancing" side of my balancing vs. bandwagoning scorecard. Keep'em coming, please.✅
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
And now for something positive: A great development and in so many ways an allegory on the problems the world is facing today. (And is there any issue left the US would actually support in the UN these days?)
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
Nick Kodama 🌳👻 @nickkodama.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
the part he's not saying is that the admin thinks an increased reliance on nukes can offset the US conventional contribution
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Who would have thought? Only diplomacy can offer a way out of the conflict. 🤷‍♂️ "At a conference early this month, Anwar Gargash, a senior Emirati official, acknowledged that a diplomatic approach was inevitable, regardless of what had transpired." www.nytimes.com/2026/09/15/w...
nytimes.com
Gulf Arabs Seek Options After U.S. Bases Did Not Deter Iran
The American presence in these countries has not shielded them from retaliation during the Iran war. Now they are hoping direct talks with Iran could help.
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
European Leadership Network (ELN) @theeln.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
It has come to our attention that a fabricated article predicting the collapse of Ukraine’s economy is circulating on Facebook and TikTok. The image falsely bears the ELN logo. The article was not published by the ELN, is fabricated, and does not reflect the views of the author.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
A good opportunity to re-up my @thebulletin.org piece in which I argue that France’s non-nuclear partners can reduce inequities, institutional inconsistencies and political discrepancies through stronger coordination amongst each other. thebulletin.org?p=132809
thebulletin.org
Forward deterrence: What's (not) in it for France's partners
Four months after President Macron pitched a European "forward deterrence" concept, uneven bilateral terms and strict French nuclear autonomy threaten to leave non-nuclear allies with little say. To p...
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Finland officially joins French forward deterrence initiative, bringing the number of Paris' non-nuclear partners to nine. www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-...
elysee.fr
Joint Statement on Finland’s Participation in French Forward
Read the statement.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Really interesting: Salvage fuzes as anti-failsafe measures.
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
The Associated Press @apnews.com · 09/09/2026
The U.N. atomic watchdog's board reported Iran to the U.N. Security Council for the first time in 20 years for failure to cooperate in a long-running investigation into uranium traces detected by inspectors at various undeclared sites in Iran.
bit.ly
UN nuclear watchdog board reports Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years
The U.N. atomic watchdog’s board reported Iran to the U.N. Security Council for the first time in 20 years for failure to cooperate in a long-running investigation into uranium traces detected by inspectors at various undeclared sites in Iran.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
True: "The strikes were unjustifiable because it was evident that they would not succeed." Also true: They were unjustifiable because they clearly violated the UN Charter, thus undermining international law and diplomacy. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
America’s Iran War Forgot About Nukes
When was the last time you heard a meaningful proposal to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear arsenal?
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Grossi: "South Korea has officially notified the Secretariat of its intention to initiate discussions with the IAEA regarding a separate agreement under Article 14 of the CSA." www.chosun.com/english/nati...
chosun.com
South Korea Notifies IAEA of Intent to Discuss Nuclear-Powered Submarine
South Korea Notifies IAEA of Intent to Discuss Nuclear-Powered Submarine IAEA Director Notes North Koreas Uranium Facility May Be Operational
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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
The White House Military Office Navy aide is on “Football” duty for Trump’s return to the White House from his golf course in Bedminster, NJ. The ~45-lb. satchel trails Trump 24/7, enabling him alone to authorize the use of any of our ~1,770 deployed nuclear weapons—up to 900 on alert—at any time.
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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 04/09/2026
In 2026, military spending accounts for 44% of all Russian federal budget spending, a new all-time high. Link to the data (SWP Russian Budget Monitor): data.swp-berlin.org/ru-budget-tr...
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Related/unrelated: Law also does not allow this. Still ... www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
Dutch health institute issues warning over Trump-shaped ecstasy pills
The drugs have a delayed effect which "increases the risk of overdose", the health institute says.
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
Alan Jagolinzer @jagolinzer.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Gaming has consistently been a pathway for propaganda. www.whitehouse.gov/arcade/
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Reposted by Oliver Meier
Eliot Higgins @eliothiggins.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
A new video from Syria shows M4000 chemical bombs being disassembled. These bombs were used in 3 attacks in 2017, including the notorious Khan Sheikhoun chemical attack. After that attack I pieced together their identity back in 2017 using open source evidence www.bellingcat.com/news/2020/04...
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Cool new tool from Alva Myrdal Center: "Comprehensive overview of 129 #armscontrol agreements across all weapons categories. Explore agreement parties, obligations, mechanisms of control, and agreement associations through datasets, data visualisers and encyclopedia." amcdata.uu.se/en
amcdata.uu.se
AMC DATA
Web site for clearifying agrees of disarmament.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Die Lieferung von potentiell atomwaffenfähigen U-Booten an einen außerhalb des nuklearen Nichtverbreitungsvertrags stehenden Staat mag gut für die "strategische Zusammenarbeit" sein. Für globale Bemühungen um die Nonproliferation von Kernwaffen ist sie es nicht. www.zeit.de/news/2026-09...
zeit.de
Rüstungskooperation: U-Boot aus Kiel auf dem Weg nach Israel
Hier finden Sie Informationen zu dem Thema „Rüstungskooperation“. Lesen Sie jetzt „U-Boot aus Kiel auf dem Weg nach Israel“.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Some honesty here at least with regard to the name: Janus, the two-faced god. And if the plan is indeed to deploy these microreactors at US bases abroad, I would have additional questions, including legal ones.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
"This summer, the Chinese foreign minister visited me, and I brought up the subject [of Moscow escalating by using nuclear arms against Ukraine]. And he said, 'We will never allow that to happen.' And I believe that is a pretty effective deterrent," Stubb said. kyivindependent.com/russia-wont-...
kyivindependent.com
Russia won't use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or attack NATO, Finland's president says
"At the moment, Russia's options for escalation are quite limited. The only thing Russia can still escalate with is mobilization. And I believe mobilization would have domestic political repercussions...
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Good: NATO SACEUR "remains ready to engage in military-to-military dialogue with the chief of the general staff of the Russian Federation [Valery Gerasimov] to avoid miscalculation and to provide a means for avoiding unintended escalation by either side.” www.politico.eu?p=8906189
politico.eu
NATO and Moscow must increase dialogue to avoid accidental war, Russian envoy says
Despite recent U.S. moves to restore military contact, the risk of conflict is rising “significantly,” Nikolay Korchunov says.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Hear, hear. "Poland does not want to have nuclear warheads on its territory. We ​want to participate in NATO nuclear deterrence, which does ⁠not mean having nuclear warheads on our territory," Deputy Defence ​Minister Pawel Zalewski said "very clearly and openly". www.reuters.com/business/aer...
reuters.com
Poland does not want nuclear warheads on its territory, deputy defence minister says
Poland does not want to have nuclear warheads on its territory, Deputy Defence ​Minister Pawel Zalewski said on Thursday.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Well said: “When your friend kicks you in the back, one of the first rules is you don’t then go and buy $12 billion of fighter jets from that person,” Mr. Eby said on Tuesday, citing roughly the cost of the first 16 airplanes. “It makes absolutely no sense,” he added. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/27/w...
nytimes.com
As Anger Grows Over Trump Tariffs, Some in Canada Want Out of U.S. F-35 Deal
A year into a government review of the purchase of as many as 88 F-35s, one premier says buying American warplanes makes no sense in the face of President Trump’s latest tariffs.
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Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
It was a pleasure to sit down with Ambassador Đỗ Hùng Việt, President the 2026 #NPTRevCon to discuss NPT and its future. Favourite line: "If we can get rid of nuclear weapons, we would have very nice Review Conferences." Watch recording at @theeln.bsky.social: europeanleadershipnetwork.org?p=26893
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
Three Strikes and We’re Out? What’s Next for the NPT Review Process
Ambassador Đỗ Hùng Việt, Vietnam’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, New York, and President of the 2026 NPT Review Conference, reflects candidly on the 2026 NPT Review Conference's coll...
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