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Nicolai von Ondarza

@nvondarza.bsky.social
17K followers 1.1K following 4.5K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Senior Fellow in Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination.

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 09/10/2026
Trump thinks he made a brilliant deal with Putin about diesel exports from Russia. But Russia planned to allow some diesel exports anyway. Putin managed to sell it as a gift to Trump. This is from 3 days ago:
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Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck.bsky.social · 6h
I would laugh but it‘s actually not that funny
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6h
To be fair, Ukraine was always the topic where I agreed most with Boris Johnson, and where he did a fairly good job in supporting Ukraine even before the 2022 invasion as PM.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7h
'how it started' - 'How it is going'- Boris Johnson, Trump & Ukraine edition:
Boris Johnson endorsement of Trump in 2024 as the only one who has the strength and bravery to end the war in UkraineBoris Johnson today, calling the lifting of sanctions against Russia 'sickening' and transparently ridicilous to blame Ukraine for high Diesel prices.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 10h
Well.
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Finally read the new AfD strategy paper on Europe. It casts 2029 as a “historic window” to reorient the EU’s foundations through Treaty change, with a right-wing majority in the EP and a German government with AfD participation both within reach. Thread on some notable points:
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Maria Popova @popovaprof.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Theatre of the absurd! Trump announces US will buy diesel from russia even though he signed a law mandating sanctions for any country buying russian energy. Meanwhile russia actually has a diesel export ban because they can’t meet domestic demand.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
As the Americans like to say, there ain't no such thing as a free lunch (and much less free diesel)...
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
It really was brutal during the hight of the Eurozone crisis.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
With all the attention on the bond markets in recent weeks, it should of course also be noted that Greek 10y bonds now have lower yields than either Italy, France or the UK, with only Germany still faring (substantially) better. How times have changed.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Another 'wow the Eurozone crisis is a long time ago'-moment - Greek (seasonally adjusted) youth unemployment has now fallen below EU average, something that would have seemed absurd 10 years ago:
Graph of seasonally adjusted youth unemployment, with Greece below EU average.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Very sad news. UK in a Changing Europe was one of the most influential voices in the Brexit debate and beyond, and I always enjoyed working with all the colleagues there. Here is to all what was achieved, and hoping the signalling that there is more to come bears out!
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Daniel Fiott @danielfiott.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
In a recent conversation we talked about how killing FCAS and MGCS might be better now than under different governments in 🇫🇷 and 🇩🇪 that may seek to make wider points about European defence cooperation. Still, a huge waste of time this dalliance, this dance… leading to nothing.
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Edward Luce @edwardluce.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
This is where we are. Live stream executions for Maga porn. Such barbarism is not easily wiped away.
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Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Utter barbarism. Like watching the reverse evolution of man into beast.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
MFF negotiations also usually involve at least one failed summit. With Spain’s election now called for 29 November (which happened after our conversation) Costa has even less room for manoeuvre to steer the negotiations towards agreement.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
My view: Costa’s approach is well suited to strategic debate, but struggles when technical details require political ownership. And if anything, the MFF negotiations are all about technical details, with opposing camps currently in deadlock and with every number creating winners and losers.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
António Costa has made informal retreats and frank political exchanges central to his leadership of the European Council. I spoke to @clothildegouj.bsky.social at @contexte.com about how this approach may fare in the upcoming MFF negotiations: www.contexte.com/eu/article/p...
contexte.com
Costa’s political playbook faces a €2 trillion EU budget test - Contexte
The European Council president has made EU leaders’ summits more informal and strategic. Negotiations over the EU’s next seven-year budget will test whether his approach can survive a fight over numbers, national interests and painstaking detail.
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Georgina Wright (on leave) @georginaewright.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Another great piece by @samfr.bsky.social on the route back into the EU for the UK. That said, one thing that is massively underappreciated in the UK is the EU's own appetite to begin membership talks with the UK. samf.substack.com/p/the-route-...
samf.substack.com
The route back into the EU
Back in 2022 I wrote about the long-term prospects for undoing Brexit and made two predictions.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I also quite liked Jørgensen clear answers when interviewed by @therestpolitics.bsky.social earlier this year:
youtube.com
The Truth About Russian Oil, Net Zero, and North Sea Drilling
YouTube video by The Rest Is Politics
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 06/10/2026
Heute präsentiert die EU-Kommission ihre Vorschläge für eine Erweiterung der EU und die dafür notwendigen Reformen. Dazu empfehlen wir noch mal das SWP-Aktuell von Barbara Lippert, @nvondarza.bsky.social, @swp-europe.bsky.social und Frauke M. Seebass. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
swp-berlin.org
EU-Erweiterung: Sonderfall Ukraine – Regelfall Westbalkan
Kyjiw durch Beitrittsassoziierung neuen Typs in der EU verankern
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Yes, but the side-plot of an engagement in the baltics having gone wrong and plunging the person into financial difficulties, bringing them to sell state secrets, sounds very spy-novel like.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Lots of crazy things happening these days, but the spy scandal unfolding in Germany at the moment about the former BND head handling out secret information seems quite high up there in the 'that usually only happens in a Le Carré novel'-list of events...
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
New post: Burnham has opened the door to a "rejoin" manifesto pledge. The politics make more sense than a lot of people seem to realise. I look at what it would involve at every step from pledge to referendum. There are significant barriers but it can be done. samf.substack.com/p/the-route-...
samf.substack.com
The route back into the EU
Back in 2022 I wrote about the long-term prospects for undoing Brexit and made two predictions.
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Minna Ålander 🌻 @alanderminna.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Yes since 2025 European involvement in Ukraine’s defence effort has both deepened and widened. Trump’s return to the White House was a watershed moment. European countries now host Ukrainian production and logistics to the extent that Russia has started to consider Europe as Ukraine’s ”rear”.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The uploading of polarisation goes even further - the ECR Group is calling for a suspension of funds for the European Left Alliance for failing to uphold European values, on the basis of the membership of LFI (Mélenchon's party) in the European Left:
X Post from ECR MEP Charlie Weimers: "No EU funding for leftist violence

School fires, attacks on police and firefighters, looting and serious vandalism are shaking France.

French intelligence has pointed to La France Insoumise as a driver of the violence. Together with the Swedish Left Party, LFI is a member of the European Left Alliance — an EU party that receives nearly €1 million a year from the European Parliament.

Taxpayers should not bankroll the left’s vandalism. I am now seeking support from fellow MEPs to stop that financing."
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Another uploading of national politics today in the EP plenary - a centre-right to far-right majority just voted in favour of a debate on the students riots in France, called for by the ECR/Marion Marechal, from the Le Pen family:
Majority from centre/centre-right to far-right on motion for a debate on students protests in France.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
For EU-Analytics, I took a look at the EU votes in September. They provide another confirmation that despite 'State of the Union' calls for unity, European politics is fragmenting:
substack.com
The fractures of EU politics laid bare despite calls for unity
EU-Analytics September 2026 review
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Federico Pisani @federicopisani.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
In a way, a more "political" EU politics. This possibly a reflection of the increased importance of EU level decision-making, and its increasing effort to reconnect with citizens' concerns. Political conflicts and democratic battles are rising to the European level, legitimizing it more.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
As always, here is a substack-free version thanks to @foederalist.eu:
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Together, these votes do not point to one stable new majority. They show a more fragmented, issue-dependent EU political landscape: national conflicts increasingly shape European coalitions, while both Parliament and Council become more willing to act through contested majorities.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Third, the Council closed the social-security coordination file proposed in 2016 by qualified majority, despite four governments voting against and two abstaining. To me, this shows national governments becoming more willing to take contested decisions rather than always seek consensus.
Graph on the Council vote, with 4 votes against (Dk, Nl, PL, LU) and 2 abstentions (AT, HU)
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Second, Renew joined the winning majority in 97.5% of September’s final votes. Its flexibility made it pivotal. But if Renew and parts of the left become more open to case-by-case majorities with the far right, the EPP may also find itself on the losing side more often.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
With Sánchez now calling an election for 29 November, I expect this PP–PSOE conflict to intensify at EU level. Also striking: many MEPs from countries most exposed to Russia’s instrumentalisation of migration showed relatively little solidarity with Spain.
Geographical distribution of the Ceuta resolution vote in the EP.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
First, the EP resolution on hybrid attacks and the instrumentalisation of migration in Ceuta passed with EPP, ECR, PfE and ESN support. But this was not a simple left–right split: Renew was divided, and Spanish polarisation was uploaded into European group politics. Data from @howtheyvote.eu:
Voting chart on the ceuta resolution, in a left-right split with Renew split in the middle.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
For EU-Analytics, I took a look at the EU votes in September. They provide another confirmation that despite 'State of the Union' calls for unity, European politics is fragmenting:
substack.com
The fractures of EU politics laid bare despite calls for unity
EU-Analytics September 2026 review
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Also note that the connection between the Spanish PP and Vox was one of the key drivers of the 'Venezuela majority' of centre-right to far-right in the European Parliament, with the initial - name-giving - resolution on Venezuela being prepared between Vox and PP.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Vox is also a case of radicalisation of the far-right - used to be part of the ECR and present itself as more moderate, and now has become one of the more radical voices amongst the 'Patriots for Europe'.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
It can be tested here. My understanding is that this is just a first step, with hopefully more to come. It could be particuarly interesting for European businesses or governments who neither want to rely on US or Chinese models:
tesseracted.com
Kolibri-1 Chat — Try Aleph Alpha’s Model | Tesseracted Labs
Try Aleph Alpha’s Kolibri-1 in your browser. Start chatting free without signup. An independent demo hosted by Tesseracted Labs GmbH.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Finally, there is a bit more competition on the AI space from a European initiative, here from Germany in the form of Kolibri-1. It looks like a model that can compete with some of the Chinese open-source model, and is particuarly trained on German/European data:
aleph-alpha.com
Kolibri Has Landed: A Sovereign Open-Weight Model — Aleph Alpha
Kolibri is an English-German Mixture-of-Experts model with 78B total and 3B active parameters, a context of up to 1M tokens and open weights under Apache 2.0, specialized for sovereign, mission-critic...
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Great to see two Germans/Europeans amongst the Nobel prize winners for medizine today:
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Important side effect of the Spanish snap elections: The EU MFF negotiations will either be fully compressed into December, or more likely, fail to be concluded this year and run straight into a series of crucial national elections.
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Klara Müller @klaramueller.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Pedro Sánchez creating an unexpected (?) occasion to put this out here again. Seems like we will need to add a new robustness test to this piece… 🇪🇸👀
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Here is an example of lagging politics - the whole time German parties to the right fought against the 2035 ICE car ban, and here we are at the end of 2026 and EV sales have risen to more than a third, overtaking petrol and diesel car sales combined.
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Ministers ready to match the EU’s 45 per cent tariffs on Chinese EVs to avoid pain of Made in Europe proposals
thetimes.com
Britain expected to impose tariffs on Chinese electric cars
Ministers are ready to match the EU’s 45 per cent levy to avoid pain of Made in Europe proposals
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
EU super election year - with elections scheduled in France, Poland, Italy, Spain plus more equalling about a third of the EU - has been moved forward and is now starting in November 2026:
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 05/10/2026
This is an interesting move – and one that I suggested myself in summer. The current "EPP minority government" (as @nvondarza.bsky.social & @sophia-russack.bsky.social called it) depends on S&D and RE without benefitting them in return. So it makes sense for them to demand a more formal coalition.
table.media
Opinion: The case for a formal grand coalition in the European Parliament
The political scientist argues that, in the current parliamentary term, the European Parliament’s informal pro-European centrist coalition has effectively given way to a minority government led by the Christian Democrats.
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Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 02/10/2026
A sad day: Germany's Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is closing its office in Georgia because it has become impossible for the foundation to do its work in Tbilisi. www.kas.de/de/pressemit...
kas.de
Die Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung schließt ihr Auslandsbüro in Tiflis
detail
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Ben Crum @bencrum.nl · 02/10/2026
Interesting as usual by @nvondarza.bsky.social 👇 This made me think: “this month saw three votes with an “everyone but the EPP” majority. […] If the left opens up to some targeted majorities with the far-right, some day the EPP could be on the losing side of more polarised European politics”
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SWP Europe @swp-europe.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
"Queen of the EU"? In Folge 13 von LensEU fragt Anna Wallner @mediawall.bsky.social, wie viel Macht Ursula von der Leyen in Brüssel gesammelt hat, mit Blicken aus Brüssel, Kroatien, Polen und Deutschland. Die deutsche Perspektive kommt von @nvondarza.bsky.social. 🎧 buff.ly/ipuVWyB
buff.ly
All LensEU Podcasts | The Audio Marketplace
Listen to all LensEU podcasts.
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