iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Very excited that this project is out in the world! It has something for everyone: • Modern diff-in-diff! • Issue ownership + retrospective voting! • An analysis of Maine prison bond measures! (Maybe that last one’s just for me) Appreciate any comments, questions, and reactions!

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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

🚨 New Working Paper! 🚨 Do voters *like* local prisons? Are prisons that good for the economy? After years of data collection (+ using a novel estimator?!), @nottone & I find new prisons: • Reduce Republican incumbent vote shares 1-3pp • Decrease per cap. incomes >$2,500 osf.io/dnwke 🧵👇

Abstract for the paper "The Electoral Effects of U.S. Prison Construction" by Ottone & Weiss: From 1980 to 2000, the United States opened over 400 prisons, a rapid expansion of carceral capacity mirroring the punitive turn in public policy and public opinion. Yet few studies have examined the impact of prison construction on nearby residents and their political behavior. We develop a theoretical model tracing how prison openings affect economic, attitudinal, and electoral outcomes in surrounding communities. Us- ing modern difference-in-difference methods and a novel county-level dataset covering forty years of prison openings, we find that prison construction decreases county-level vote share for Republican candidates, especially if Republicans represented the county during prison construction. Drawing on analyses of economic outcomes and prison bond measure support, we argue that voters sanction issue-owning Republican candi- dates for negative economic externalities and turn against funding for prisons. These findings challenge conventional wisdom about the political economy of prisons and have implications for how we understand contemporary expansions of carceral capacity.

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

What's been driving the success of progressive insurgents in Democratic primaries? Ideology? Maybe. Old-fashioned canvassing? Definitely. New short working paper (osf.io/preprints/so...) on the impact of canvassing in a local election @houseourneighbors.bsky.social Thread below ⬇️ 1/9

Abstract for working paper by Nicholas Ottone: "Canvassing Mobilizes and Increases Vote Share: Evidence from a Local Election in Seattle":

A long line of research has shown that door-to-door canvassing is a potent campaign tactic for increasing turnout and, in some cases, vote share. More recent work has theorized, however, that canvassing effects are largest in low-salience elections without party cues and concentrated among occasional voters canvassed closer to Election Day. In this research note, I test these theoretical expectations by examining the effect of canvassing in a February local election in Seattle for a housing-related ballot measure. Using a novel geo-coded dataset of seventy doorknocking campaigns over three months, I find that voters more proximate to canvassing operations were more likely to vote and that proximate precincts had a slightly higher vote share for the targeted ballot measure. Moreover, consistent with recent theorizing, I find that turnout effects were concentrated among targeted Democrats canvassed soon before the election.

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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 24/08/2026

frustrated with myself that it took me so long to watch this. what a picture!

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Yale ISPS @ispsyale.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

If you've ever been to ISPS, you have almost certainly met Pam Greene, who is retiring this week after 35 years: bit.ly/43hvNml

Pam Greene speaks at a lectern next to a projection screen showing a photo of her in a classroom.

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

After submitting my students' final exam grades, it's starting to sink in that I'll be graduating in just a few days. I'm so grateful to my committee (@jkalla.bsky.social @allipatter.bsky.social and sky-less Greg Huber) and to everyone at Yale for supporting me during the PhD.

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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

The theme of public excellence is something Mamdani emphasized in his inauguration address. One big potential he mentions here is inhousing tech talent rather than spending too much on contracts that don't deliver.

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Michael Hankinson @hankinson.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

Building affordable housing ➡️ support for funding housing. Nearby homeowners ⬆️ support; renters ⬇️ support. Both are “the policy adjacent”—secondhand recipients & drivers of policy feedback. Forthcoming @ajpseditor.bsky.social ( doi.org/10.1111/ajps...) w/ A. Magazinnik & @msands.bsky.social 1/9

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

This is my favorite NYC fun fact

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Moira Donegan @moiradonegan.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

Why do I have to pretend that I'm going to print something in order to save it as a PDF. Why do I have to engage in a little ruse.

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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

So much of classic political science research is woefully underpowered. I'm glad we're slowly coming to our senses.

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Jeff Stormer @jeffstormer.gobirds.online · 26/11/2025

Audience culture is the worst it's ever been, I swear to god. People forgot how to act. I'm at the theater, trying to enjoy my show, which I've paid GOOD MONEY for, and these two old assholes are in the balcony heckling the life out of the poor bear onstage. Not letting him finish a single joke.

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Hannah Walker @hlw.bsky.social · 19/09/2025

Another great talk, this time from Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social at @priec.bsky.social on the impact of group based diversity on downstream sentencing decisions (He’s on the market!! Look out, he’s on the way up!!)

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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 09/09/2025

the free press trying to make a scandal out of reading robert dahl is very funny (shoutout to dahl, one of the best to ever do it)

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

An interesting example of “outside lobbying” in the wild!

A New York City political ad on a TV screen. On the screen are three people split across with the text “City Council: Keep Grocery Delivery Affordable. Protect Grocery Delivery Work.” Appearing in front of them. Below in smaller text says “Paid for by Instacart”

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 12/08/2025

Let he who has not sought friendlier data cast the first stone

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Excited to see this column with Limor Peer published in Harvard Data Science Review! Also very mystified by the (seemingly AI-generated) thumbnail! hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/suy0nbh5...

hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu

Code Review, Reproducibility, and Improving the Scholarly Record

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

Original thought alert! Very strange how this same party attacked Michelle Obama’s healthy school lunches and Bloomberg’s Big Gulp ban as “nanny state” intrusions on their precious liberties. Would read a book on this evolution.

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 31/03/2025

For this very reason, I really don't think it's a coincidence that mass deregulation has been ordered by a big-time government contractor, who would have a LOT of contact with regulators. Why we should be normatively concerned about government contractors' lobbying and influence!

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

So excited that this study is finally published! We focus on the methods that organizations use to mobilize *existing supporters* of abortion rights to move them from passive to active supporters Turns out messaging targeted to them does not work... but it doesn't alienate people either 🤨

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

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Journal of Politics @thejop.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

"Electoral Turnover and Government Efficiency: Evidence from Federal Procurement" by Kyuwon Lee. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 09/03/2025

re the previous repost: if they can disappear permanent residents they can disappear citizens

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Emily Badger @emmbadger.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

The federal government spends a lot on contracts with outside organizations — most of it in places where DOGE isn't cutting. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez @aoc.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

Adams must be removed. The city cannot sustain being governed for nearly a year by a Mayor who is being coerced by Trump admin in order to escape charges. This corruption poses a real threat to the people of the city. He should have resigned a while ago, but will not. So it’s time for him to go.

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Shana Gadarian @sgadarian.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

You are right that we should be looking outside the US for understanding but I’d also say probably some of the work on authoritarianism in the US are relevant. A non-Cambridge book: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

press.princeton.edu

Paths Out of Dixie

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The Urbanist @theurbanist.org · 12/02/2025

Social housing funding appears poised to pass by a wide margin in Seattle. The Prop 1A version to enact an excise tax on employers with highly compensated employees is leading with 58% of the vote.

68% yes, 32% no; 58% Prop 1A, 42% Prop 1B

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Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Me researching and reporting: Haha!! Fuck yeah! Yes!! Me writing: Well this fucking sucks. What the fuck.

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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

#OpenAccess from our new issue - Shared Demographic Characteristics Do Not Reliably Facilitate Persuasion in Interpersonal Conversations: Evidence from Eight Experiments - cup.org/4getJPI - @dbroockman.bsky.social, @jkalla.bsky.social, @nottone.bsky.social, Erik Santoro & @amandaweiss.bsky.social

BJPolS abstract from a scholarly article discussing the impact of interpersonal conversations on political views and demographic cooperation.

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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

My baby sister is a UCLA undergrad and I'm sending texts every six hours like "ARE YOU STILL OKAY DO YOU HAVE A GO-BAG???" Anyhow re-upping mutual aid resources in the greater Los Angeles area: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

docs.google.com

MALAN Fire & Wind Storm Resources

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

When Twitter was still useful, I’d post a year-end list of art I had enjoyed. Here’s my list for 2024: Abbott Elementary Just for Us (Edelman) Anora Decameron His Three Daughters Get on Your Knees (Novak) Merrily We Roll Along Oh, so we have to keep doing this forever (Petri) Outsiders Sing Sing

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Waldo Jaquith @waldo.net · 19/12/2024

Constrained market, little competition, excessive complexity, uninterrogatable pricing, no government subject matter experts, a one-way ratchet on pricing...it's all a recipe for adding an extra zero to the price tag of every big project.

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Hey everyone! I'm working on an experimental project with text as data. Does anyone know of a dictionary of words about race or racism in the American context, such that one could use it to detect participants talking about race in web chat data? Any help appreciated!

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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Thrilled that this article is out! And just in time for anyone who needed holiday reading! Catch up on the latest persuasion research in between dinner and football.

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katie honan @katiehonan.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Nonprofits who contract with the city on crucial services say they’re owed millions on unpaid and/or unregistered /delayed contracts. They’re mulling layoffs or service cuts — but the city says everything is fine: www.thecity.nyc/2024/11/26/n... @thecity.bsky.social

thecity.nyc

Nonprofit Service Providers Take on Debt, Mull Layoffs as City Hall Slow Walks Payments

At least one major organization has had to shutter, while others are preparing to scale back work and staff because of snowballing financial issues.

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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

@nottone.bsky.social and I have made a starter pack of Junior Quant Americanists! If you want to understand American politics and policy through research by cutting-edge (mostly ABD/postdoc) researchers, then this is the list for you. Let us know who we are missing! go.bsky.app/KKmVtH6

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

Congestion pricing saved by negative polarization?

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 04/11/2024

For one week, every four years, the best job in America is well-respected pollster with deep knowledge of a swing state’s idiosyncratic electorate.

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Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 26/09/2024

Apropos of an indictment, the Eric Adams quote that has taken up residence in my head: “If I see a piece of chicken, I’m going to nibble on it.”

“Later, in 2022, he had to deploy ‘perfectly imperfect’ to stave off criticism, after Politico reported that Adams wasn’t a strict vegan: he ate fish. He initially denied this; he denied to me, untruthfully, that he’d ever claimed to be a vegan. His statements about diet continue to surprise. Adams told me, “If I see a piece of chicken, I’m going to nibble on it.””

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Amanda Sahar d’Urso @asdurso.bsky.social · 12/09/2024

I will NEVER understand why people think qual research is easier. It is NOT. Omg I’m dying over here. (But it’s really rewarding!!)

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John Attridge @johnattridge.bsky.social · 26/08/2024

Academics love to say "most famously" and then describe a fact that 9 people in the world are aware of

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