iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Key takeaway: canvassing works in low-info elections, and it works even better close to Election Day. Feedback + questions very welcome! Hopefully this is the first of a few looking at the impact of campaigns. 9/9

010

On the other hand, evidence on canvassing being more effective among "occasional" voters than habitual or infrequent voters is less conclusive. 8/9

Finding 2: Canvassing is more effective closer to Election Day. Canvasses within 2 weeks of Election Day (when voters had mail ballots) were 4-5pp more effective at mobilizing Democrats. Although: no detected effect for shifting vote share. 7/9

Table 3: Effect of Canvassing Close to the Election on Turnout.

Finding 1: Canvassing works! As you move away from canvassing sites, the turnout gap between targeted voters (i.e. Democrats) and non-targeted voters shrinks --- but you don't see the same with the placebo parks. +4-5pp for turnout, +1-3pp for precinct-level vote share 6/9

Figure 2: Predicted Turnout, by Distance and Party. Shows two lines in each facet. For canvasses, the lines converge, from 24.3pp to 20.3pp and for placebo, they are nearly parallel.

Two main findings, testing claims from the canvassing literature (esp. Gerber & Green's foundational work and Kalla/Broockman 2018): 1. Canvassing mobilizes targeted voters and shifts vote share 2. It's more effective closer to Election Day 5/9

Unlike other studies, I'm not using individualized records of who was canvassed. I construct an original geo-coded dataset of Prop 1A's 70 doorknocking campaigns. Most started in parks, so I also construct a matched placebo dataset of parks where they *could* have started. 4/9

Figure 1: Location of Canvass Sites and Placebo Parks. A map of Seattle with precincts outlined in black. Parks are shown with black dots and canvasses are shown with blue dots. Proximate precincts are shaded with light blue (close to canvasses) and light green (close to parks).

This paper focuses on the surprise success of Seattle progressives in the Feb 2025 special election. Before Mamdani's campaign crested, Prop 1A campaigners fought a late-breaking wave of cash to win a new tax on corporations, which has already raised $115 million for affordable housing. 3/9

Flyer for the Proposition 1A campaign. Says: "On your February 11 2025 ballot, Vote Yes on Prop 1A, Tax Wealthy Businesses to Fund Social Housing" along with details.

Inside the Left’s Playbook for Winning Elections

High-profile primary wins by left-wing candidates, from Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan to Angie Nixon in Florida, have shocked observers. One common thread: "old-fashioned ground games, harnessing the anger and energy on the left to recruit armies of volunteers." (www.nytimes.com/2026/08/10/u...) 2/9

nytimes.com

Progressives are being outspent and are receiving little support from the Democratic Party. Their tactics show a different way to succeed.

jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 24/08/2026

What's been driving the success of progressive insurgents in Democratic primaries? Ideology? Maybe. Old-fashioned canvassing? Definitely. New short working paper (osf.io/preprints/so...) on the impact of canvassing in a local election @houseourneighbors.bsky.social Thread below ⬇️ 1/9

Abstract for working paper by Nicholas Ottone: "Canvassing Mobilizes and Increases Vote Share: Evidence from a Local Election in Seattle":

A long line of research has shown that door-to-door canvassing is a potent campaign tactic for increasing turnout and, in some cases, vote share. More recent work has theorized, however, that canvassing effects are largest in low-salience elections without party cues and concentrated among occasional voters canvassed closer to Election Day. In this research note, I test these theoretical expectations by examining the effect of canvassing in a February local election in Seattle for a housing-related ballot measure. Using a novel geo-coded dataset of seventy doorknocking campaigns over three months, I find that voters more proximate to canvassing operations were more likely to vote and that proximate precincts had a slightly higher vote share for the targeted ballot measure. Moreover, consistent with recent theorizing, I find that turnout effects were concentrated among targeted Democrats canvassed soon before the election.

1112

Reposted by Nick Ottone

frustrated with myself that it took me so long to watch this. what a picture!

184245272

Reposted by Nick Ottone

Yale ISPS @ispsyale.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

If you've ever been to ISPS, you have almost certainly met Pam Greene, who is retiring this week after 35 years: bit.ly/43hvNml

Pam Greene speaks at a lectern next to a projection screen showing a photo of her in a classroom.

1135

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

But I'm also very excited to begin as a Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford in August! Looking forward to working with @tomsclark.bsky.social and meeting some wonderful people in the Bay Area. On to the next chapter!

140

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

After submitting my students' final exam grades, it's starting to sink in that I'll be graduating in just a few days. I'm so grateful to my committee (@jkalla.bsky.social @allipatter.bsky.social and sky-less Greg Huber) and to everyone at Yale for supporting me during the PhD.

160

Reposted by Nick Ottone

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

The theme of public excellence is something Mamdani emphasized in his inauguration address. One big potential he mentions here is inhousing tech talent rather than spending too much on contracts that don't deliver.

23968142

Reposted by Nick Ottone

Michael Hankinson @hankinson.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

Building affordable housing ➡️ support for funding housing. Nearby homeowners ⬆️ support; renters ⬇️ support. Both are “the policy adjacent”—secondhand recipients & drivers of policy feedback. Forthcoming @ajpseditor.bsky.social ( doi.org/10.1111/ajps...) w/ A. Magazinnik & @msands.bsky.social 1/9

24621

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

This is my favorite NYC fun fact

000

Reposted by Nick Ottone

Moira Donegan @moiradonegan.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

Why do I have to pretend that I'm going to print something in order to save it as a PDF. Why do I have to engage in a little ruse.

333191422875

Reposted by Nick Ottone

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

So much of classic political science research is woefully underpowered. I'm glad we're slowly coming to our senses.

56820

Reposted by Nick Ottone

Jeff Stormer @jeffstormer.gobirds.online · 26/11/2025

Audience culture is the worst it's ever been, I swear to god. People forgot how to act. I'm at the theater, trying to enjoy my show, which I've paid GOOD MONEY for, and these two old assholes are in the balcony heckling the life out of the poor bear onstage. Not letting him finish a single joke.

272821759

Reposted by Nick Ottone

Hannah Walker @hlw.bsky.social · 19/09/2025

Another great talk, this time from Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social at @priec.bsky.social on the impact of group based diversity on downstream sentencing decisions (He’s on the market!! Look out, he’s on the way up!!)

163

Reposted by Nick Ottone

jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 09/09/2025

the free press trying to make a scandal out of reading robert dahl is very funny (shoutout to dahl, one of the best to ever do it)

491998209

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

An interesting example of “outside lobbying” in the wild!

A New York City political ad on a TV screen. On the screen are three people split across with the text “City Council: Keep Grocery Delivery Affordable. Protect Grocery Delivery Work.” Appearing in front of them. Below in smaller text says “Paid for by Instacart”

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 12/08/2025

Let he who has not sought friendlier data cast the first stone

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Excited to see this column with Limor Peer published in Harvard Data Science Review! Also very mystified by the (seemingly AI-generated) thumbnail! hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/suy0nbh5...

hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu

Code Review, Reproducibility, and Improving the Scholarly Record

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

Original thought alert! Very strange how this same party attacked Michelle Obama’s healthy school lunches and Bloomberg’s Big Gulp ban as “nanny state” intrusions on their precious liberties. Would read a book on this evolution.

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 31/03/2025

For this very reason, I really don't think it's a coincidence that mass deregulation has been ordered by a big-time government contractor, who would have a LOT of contact with regulators. Why we should be normatively concerned about government contractors' lobbying and influence!

011

Reposted by Nick Ottone

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

So excited that this study is finally published! We focus on the methods that organizations use to mobilize *existing supporters* of abortion rights to move them from passive to active supporters Turns out messaging targeted to them does not work... but it doesn't alienate people either 🤨

151

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

One thing I'm really proud of here is the data we brought to bear on the extremely common campaign topic of targeted messaging: qualitative interviews, an online field experiment, two survey experiments, and a meta-analysis. Thankful for my two co-authors and for all the feedback along the way!

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

151

Reposted by Nick Ottone

Journal of Politics @thejop.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

"Electoral Turnover and Government Efficiency: Evidence from Federal Procurement" by Kyuwon Lee. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

061

Reposted by Nick Ottone

jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 09/03/2025

re the previous repost: if they can disappear permanent residents they can disappear citizens

4334850310698

Reposted by Nick Ottone

Emily Badger @emmbadger.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

The federal government spends a lot on contracts with outside organizations — most of it in places where DOGE isn't cutting. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

317744

Reposted by Nick Ottone

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez @aoc.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

Adams must be removed. The city cannot sustain being governed for nearly a year by a Mayor who is being coerced by Trump admin in order to escape charges. This corruption poses a real threat to the people of the city. He should have resigned a while ago, but will not. So it’s time for him to go.

16578560814564

Reposted by Nick Ottone

Shana Gadarian @sgadarian.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

You are right that we should be looking outside the US for understanding but I’d also say probably some of the work on authoritarianism in the US are relevant. A non-Cambridge book: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

press.princeton.edu

Paths Out of Dixie

2224

Reposted by Nick Ottone

The Urbanist @theurbanist.org · 12/02/2025

Social housing funding appears poised to pass by a wide margin in Seattle. The Prop 1A version to enact an excise tax on employers with highly compensated employees is leading with 58% of the vote.

68% yes, 32% no; 58% Prop 1A, 42% Prop 1B

111425

Reposted by Nick Ottone

Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Me researching and reporting: Haha!! Fuck yeah! Yes!! Me writing: Well this fucking sucks. What the fuck.

1694259

Reposted by Nick Ottone

British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

#OpenAccess from our new issue - Shared Demographic Characteristics Do Not Reliably Facilitate Persuasion in Interpersonal Conversations: Evidence from Eight Experiments - cup.org/4getJPI - @dbroockman.bsky.social, @jkalla.bsky.social, @nottone.bsky.social, Erik Santoro & @amandaweiss.bsky.social

BJPolS abstract from a scholarly article discussing the impact of interpersonal conversations on political views and demographic cooperation.

0103

Reposted by Nick Ottone

Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

My baby sister is a UCLA undergrad and I'm sending texts every six hours like "ARE YOU STILL OKAY DO YOU HAVE A GO-BAG???" Anyhow re-upping mutual aid resources in the greater Los Angeles area: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

docs.google.com

MALAN Fire & Wind Storm Resources

041

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

Here’s the Substack write-up if you’re interested: open.substack.com/pub/somegood...

open.substack.com

Some Good Art from 2024

Yup, doing this again

000

Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

When Twitter was still useful, I’d post a year-end list of art I had enjoyed. Here’s my list for 2024: Abbott Elementary Just for Us (Edelman) Anora Decameron His Three Daughters Get on Your Knees (Novak) Merrily We Roll Along Oh, so we have to keep doing this forever (Petri) Outsiders Sing Sing