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Nathaniel Forde

@nathanielforde.bsky.social
1.1K followers 777 following 260 posts

nathanielf.github.io Statistics, Probability previously Logic and Philosophy

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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Justin Hendrix @justinhendrix.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
“Hype is eating the future, and leaving us the bones.” Sun-ha Hong of UNC-Chapel Hill says the Silicon Valley hype machine systematically “borrows credibility from the future to purchase legitimacy in the present.” The cost, he argues, is a planetary-scale drain on our alternatives.
techpolicy.press
Tech Hype is Cannibalizing the Future
Every day, we are told that we live in the future—but hype is eating the future and leaving us the bones," writes Sun-ha Hong.
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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Noah Greifer @noahgreifer.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
This is one of my favorite statistical facts, which I never see referenced:
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Real but understated motivation. Spent yesterday struggling to plot multinomial logit coefficients on one scale. Gave up and just ran the fit with Bambi instead.
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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Emily Riederer @emilyriederer.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
For no real reason, I was looking up something about the ancestry of causal DAGs in path diagrams and came across this picture. I got to see it so you do to. HT to Sewall Wright who both set the course for a very useful analytical tool but also took the time to include cute drawings of guinea pigs
Sketch of Wright's path diagram showing the influence of heredity and environment on the inheritance of color of guinea pigs. Drawing is mostly a directed acyclic graph but includes four cute sideways drawings of guinea pigs.
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Open source contributions to pymc, stan or similar?
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
For my 2 cents, the accuracy and laws of credence (great book!) stuff is a natural gateway for ML folks via loss function design. But you also have broader decision theoretic angle and i'd love to hear you discuss the rational permissivism/demands of rationality. Cc @learnbayesstats.bsky.social
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Yeah, i'd second that for sure!
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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
It’s a new @adambonica.bsky.social joint! data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-bulwar...
data4democracy.substack.com
The Bulwark Killed an Investigation into Political Fundraising Spam After Its Publisher Took the Consultants’ Side
This is a story about the Democratic Party captured by its consultants, and about what happens when the pro-democracy press is asked to say so.
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Maybe bsky.app/profile/stat...
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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Bayesian Workflow free pdf! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/08/25/b...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Bayesian Workflow free pdf! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
PyMC Labs @pymc-labs.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
PyMC-Marketing v1.0 is live! Stable Bayesian marketing analytics by PyMC Labs: • Multidimensional & ~1.5x faster • Predicted Incrementality (PIE) • Funnel-Aware MMM • Long-Term Brand Effects Docs & Release: dub.sh/NIB4SZm #MMM #PyMC
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Maybe a Dynamic Epistemic Logic with trivial update operation which re-asserts the Emperor's truth each time?
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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Dirk Eddelbuettel @eddelbuettel.com · 11/07/2026
Norm Matloff (1948-2026) @matloff.bsky.social I was made aware of the post below made by his daughter. We lost another friend and valued long-time contributor the #Rstats community, gone far too soon, and sure to be missed. His memory will be a blessing.
Screenshot of post on X in the account of Norm Matloff in which his daughter announces his passing. Gone too soon, and sure to be missed.
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
That sounds right. Yep. causalpy.readthedocs.io/en/stable/no...
causalpy.readthedocs.io
Staggered Difference-in-Differences — CausalPy 0.8.1 documentation
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
It makes sense. Fwiw though, I think it's hard to have good intuition these details with out a concrete sense of the DGP. So much opportunity for illegal contrasts that throw off the estimator. Iirc there is an imputation based estimator for Staggered DiD in CausalPy...
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Increasingly believe this, and yet, haven't found the way to give up on the first....
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Can you parameterise the unidentified assumption and vary it in a sensitivity analysis routine? Report the bounds and expectations given by that process?
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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Eric Ma @ericmjl.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Are data scientists losing sight of what matters in the AI era? I think measurement—not just building apps—is our real value. Here's why focusing on evaluation beats chasing full-stack roles. What do you think? Comment or share if this resonates! buff.ly/Ff6Ch6w #.datascience #.ai
buff.ly
What data science is actually about in the age of AI
written by Eric Ma on 2026-05-20 | tags: measurement llms evaluation reliability engineering science expertise tools roles product
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Congratulations
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
That's only in one direction though, they must also communicate the value of that high leverage work back up the chain. Distil Bullshit and sell quality.
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
I think i somehow fell into being a real statistician. At least, I know the odds were low and surely that's sufficient...
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
Aren't you in business school?
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
✈️ Excited to be speaking at @pydatalondon.bsky.social this year! My talk, “Hazards on the Causal Path” will cover Mediation in Survival time modelling with @pymc.io . This gets at differences between process and intervention semantics in causal inference. See you there! pretalx.com/pydata-londo...
Poster for PyData London 2026 showing Nathaniel Forde will be giving a talk called: "Hazards on the Causal Path" about mediation in survival analysis.
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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Though not without their flaws, Universities they have *already* done more to drive economic development and innovation than pretty much any other human institution, and that's in addition to creating informed citizens and otherwise enriching the human experience. The evidence for this is...
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Bat signal for @learnbayesstats.bsky.social
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
Ah that's rubbish. On the linguistics point though, I think Grandpa is rare here. So fwiw a tailored insult suggesting at least some acuity.
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
A concise summary of the riddle of induction.
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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Gasper Begus @begus.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
New paper out in Proceedings of the Royal Society B: we apply linguistic tools to sperm whale vowels. The result: sperm whale vowels do not just look like human vowels. They also behave like them. We found several parallels. Like in Latin, whales have short and long vowels.
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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Michael Flynn @flynnpolsci.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Finally finished up a blog post on estimating Bradley–Terry models using brms. www.m-flynn.com/posts/2025-1...
m-flynn.com
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
It just undersells that there are other ways to achieve an appreciation of complexity than parsing the intricacies of the Odyssey. The contrast case is not education without literature, it's education by PowerPoint and cheat sheet...
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
I like this one: thepointmag.com/examined-lif... Suggests the causation is strongly mediated. The mediation structure also makes it harder for the "empiricist" to establish clean attribution. More anecdotally, i think the complexity point holds water i.e. the ability to absorb complexity matter
thepointmag.com
The Left Case for Great Books | The Point Magazine
A great-books model at the undergraduate level is, in fact, so consonant with Freire’s radical critique that it represents a far better path forward for a left-wing vision of education than virtually ...
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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Laura @takeithandy.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Meanwhile in Dublin - @dubcitycouncil.bsky.social insists on "pruning" trees to take them back to stumps. No idea what their logic is but I have a few guesses
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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Nutpie: state-of-the-art mass matrix adaptation for HMC statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/20/n...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Nutpie: state-of-the-art mass matrix adaptation for HMC | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Great product! Thanks for your work.
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
This is a great recommendation!
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Hat tip @danielsaunders.bsky.social
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Thanks for the reminder. He was hand down the best thing I read in that school.
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
He's was a founder in something, something though... so, ya know, why split hairs.
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
I buy it.
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Will never forgive them for that!
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Once identified, these conditions suggest how we should design for robust collective decision making patterns in both organisations and agentic-architectures. Hope to see you there!
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
This is not a talk about AI agents, but it indirectly probes the conditions required for useful truth-apt aggregates of agent opinion.
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Really looking forward the Python March-Meet-up in Dublin. I'll be speaking about Skill Estimation with IRT models in @pymc.io We'l gauge skill and aggregate votes over agents to stress test the Condorcet Jury Theorem. 👉 Meetup Link: lnkd.in/d4bgGyAk 👉 Link to initial work: lnkd.in/dQ9TfFsa
meetup.com
Python Ireland March 2026 Meetup, Wed, Mar 11, 2026, 6:30 PM | Meetup
**Talk: Skill Estimation, Agents and the Condorcet Jury theorem.** The Condorcet Jury Theorem promises that groups are smarter than individuals — add more voices, get clos
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Same group that killed the library bar iirc...
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Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Dan Sinykin @dan-sinnamon.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
"a great-books model at the undergraduate level is, in fact, so consonant with Freire’s radical critique that it represents a far better path forward for a left-wing vision of education than virtually anything else currently on offer in the US" thepointmag.com/examined-lif...
thepointmag.com
The Left Case for Great Books | The Point Magazine
A great-books model at the undergraduate level is, in fact, so consonant with Freire’s radical critique that it represents a far better path forward for a left-wing vision of education than virtually ...
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Ah, don't knock the philosophy degree. Yglesias is not our best.
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Bambi, PyMC...
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Similar idea in the game God of War. Kratos carries around the chatty head of Mimir
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Nathaniel Forde @nathanielforde.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
This was fascinating! Thanks for sharing.
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