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natasharsarin.bsky.social

@natasharsarin.bsky.social
1.6K followers 165 following 59 posts

Professor, Yale Law School & Yale School of Management; President @budgetlab.bsky.social; Contributing columnist @postopinions.bsky.social Former Counselor at Treasury, Professor Penn Law & Wharton www.natashasarin.com

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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
This bill spends $3T+ to make the tax code more complex and Americans less healthy In every regard, it is a mistake: Grows deficits but shrinks the economy, makes gun silencers more available but healthy food less so My latest from @postopinions.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | 6 things you probably didn’t know were in Trump’s mega-bill
Trump’s budget bill includes eliminating tax on gun silencers, a garden of heroes and more.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Here is what the distribution of the reconciliation bill looks like including tariffs, hot off @budgetlab.bsky.social presses. Income falls for the *bottom 80%* of households. Full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/com...
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Columbia Institute of Global Politics @columbiaigp.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
LIVE NOW at @columbiaigp.bsky.social 🔴 @awhf.bsky.social, R. Glenn Hubbard, Jennifer Klein, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, & Richard Clarida discuss the far-reaching implications of the federal budget bill Tune in: youtube.com/live/sxYxjDL... @columbiasipa.bsky.social @columbiauniversity.bsky.social
youtube.com
IGP Rapid Response: The Fight Over the Federal Budget
YouTube video by Columbia SIPA
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
Great to be with Wolf Blitzer and @pamelabrowncnn.bsky.social on @cnn.com Situation Room this morning talking China and the latest inflation numbers. Link here: youtu.be/yQM08o-jM5Q
youtu.be
Natasha Sarin on U.S.-China Trade Talks, Inflation, and Tariffs
YouTube video by The Budget Lab
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
So fun to join @econjared today for lunch with a healthy dose of econ to talk reconciliation, interest rates, and why we should invest in -- not gut -- the IRS. Link to our conversation here: natashasarin32.substack.com/p/7280ed14-6...
natashasarin32.substack.com
Natasha Sarin
Click to read Natasha Sarin, a Substack publication. Launched 3 hours ago.
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
@natasharsarin.bsky.social: Loss of insurance from GOP bill could mean more than 100,000 preventable deaths. Some estimates based on existing research on Medicaid effects on mortality: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Pretty sobering estimates here. Magnitudes vary but the headline conclusion does not: Tens of thousands will die prematurely if this bill becomes law.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Loss of insurance from GOP bill could mean more than 100,000 deaths. My latest from @postopinions.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Loss of insurance from GOP bill could mean more than 100,000 deaths
It is hard to articulate a justification for ballooning the federal debt in service of saving fewer lives.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Wonderful to join @pbsnews.org last night to talk about the risks of our high and rising national debt. Link here: www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...
pbs.org
Explaining the national debt, how we got here and what it means for future generations
Republicans in Congress are hashing out a new tax cut and spending bill that's projected to add trillions to the national debt. Economics correspondent Paul Solman explains the ballooning national deb...
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
This is unlawful, un-American, and ultimately -- like so much we've seen recently -- will serve to make this country less great And from a President who just last year thought college grads should get green cards so we retain the brightest foreign talent www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Administration Says It Is Halting Harvard’s Ability to Enroll International Students
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Washington Post Opinions @postopinions.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
Republicans are haggling over the details of how much to cut Medicaid and food stamps while also trying to give bigger tax breaks to the richest Americans. @danamilbank.bsky.social, James Hohmann and @natasharsarin.bsky.social discuss whether Republicans can get this bill over the finish line:
wapo.st
Opinion | There’s nothing beautiful about this big bill - The Washington Post
Republicans are haggling over the details of how much to cut Medicaid and food stamps while also trying to give bigger tax breaks to the richest Americans. Meanwhile, the rating agency Moody’s has dow...
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Washington Post Opinions @postopinions.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Here are three arguments the Trump administration might try to make to revoke Harvard’s tax-exempt status, none of which should hold water in the eyes of the law, @natasharsarin.bsky.social writes: wapo.st/42ScSPt
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Great to be with Sara Sidner @cnn.com last night talking tariffs and @budgetlab.bsky.social new analysis of the China pause. Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbxP...
youtube.com
Natasha Sarin on US-China Tariffs
YouTube video by The Budget Lab
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Center for American Progress @americanprogress.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
Join us today at 12 pm for an important conversation between @neeratanden.bsky.social and @larrysummers.bsky.social on the fiscal impact of DOGE's IRS layoffs. Janet Holtzblatt, @jessicabriedl.bsky.social, and @natasharsarin.bsky.social will also be joining in a panel discussion:
americanprogress.org
The Fiscal Impact of DOGE’s IRS Layoffs
Please join the Center for American Progress for an event featuring former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers and an expert panel on the importance of adequate funding for tax enforcement…
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
No, the Administration cannot legally revoke Harvard's -- or other nonprofits' -- tax-exempt status. My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social here: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Trump’s attack on nonprofits has an ugly history
The White House’s war on Harvard is testing the guardrails that Congress put in place after Watergate.
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Washington Post Opinions @postopinions.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
"The question facing Republican lawmakers in Congress now is a math one," @natasharsarin.bsky.social writes. "They are failing that arithmetic test." wapo.st/43izlVU
wapo.st
Opinion | The Trump administration’s tax math doesn’t add up
Budget gimmicks for Congress mean higher deficits and borrowing costs for the rest of us.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
Funding the IRS to reduce tax gap has been proposed by every President since Reagan (incl Trump, in first term!) ROI for high-end enforcement efforts is 12:1. Doing less of it costs a lot of $ Better tech will increase efficiency. But decimating the agency doesn't get you there
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
Before the IRA, IRS was way understaffed As a result, the agency couldn't collect taxes owed, per Commissioner Rettig (a Trump appointee) IRS has already lost 30% of its auditors. That's not going back to this (bad) base. It is making things much worse! www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
This is a bonker bananas statement that reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how the IRS works and flies in the face of the vast empirical evidence that shows dollars spent on tax enforcement activities have huge returns. subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...
subscriber.politicopro.com
POLITICO Pro: Bessent: More IRS auditors doesn't mean more revenue
His comments to lawmakers come amid steep cuts in the ranks of enforcement personnel at the agency.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
Tax cuts for all — paid for by none — isn’t an equation that makes much sense for the American economy. My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | The Trump administration’s tax math doesn’t add up
Budget gimmicks for Congress mean higher deficits and borrowing costs for the rest of us.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Great to be with @cnn.com this morning on the market's latest movements, Fed independence, and @budgetlab.bsky.social's work on how political risks threaten our safe harbor status. Link here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF7-...
youtube.com
Natasha Sarin on the economic fallout of tariff policy changes
YouTube video by The Budget Lab
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Re-upping this helpful explainer from @taxlawcenter.org here: medium.com/@taxlawcente...
medium.com
Understanding the Tax System’s Protections Against Political Interference in the Tax Code
By: The Tax Law Center
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
The tax code has protections against exactly this: Section 7217 makes it illegal for political officials within the Executive Branch -- incl the President -- to request an audit or investigation of a particular taxpayer Need an investigation to revoke tax exempt status. www.cnn.com/2025/04/16/p...
cnn.com
IRS making plans to rescind Harvard’s tax-exempt status | CNN Politics
The Internal Revenue Service is making plans to rescind the tax-exempt status of Harvard University, according to two sources familiar with the matter, which would be an extraordinary step of retaliat...
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
President Trump has said tax filing should be so simple that you could file on a postcard! The IRS had built something even better: a way to freely file with the govt directly rather than paying hundreds to third parties. It's devastating to watch so much good work undone
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
This is terrible, terrible, terrible news for the American people and the tax system. The only winners are high-cost tax preparers. When fully built out, Direct File would've saved taxpayers ~$20B annually. apnews.com/article/irs-...
apnews.com
Trump administration plans to end the IRS Direct File program for free tax filing, AP sources say
The Trump administration plans to eliminate the IRS’ Direct File program. That's the electronic system for filing tax returns directly to the agency for free.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Wonderful to discuss tariffs, Tax Day, and our work @budgetlab.bsky.social with @stephruhle.bsky.social on @msnbc.com's 11th Hour last night Also featuring the great @gilliantett.bsky.social, @jonallendc.bsky.social and @lukebroadwater.bsky.social Link here: www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/wa...
msnbc.com
'Traders are like vultures': Who's raking in money during the tariff chaos
As the Trump administration keeps talking about the trade deals they're going to make, American businesses and consumers are caught in the whiplash of the tariff policies. But Wall Street traders are ...
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Exactly this, from @natasharsarin.bsky.social & former IRS commissioner Danny Werfel: "In other words, an extremely diminished IRS could unlock a race to the bottom and create an evasion advantage for those who are comfortable skirting their tax bills." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
This team is so brilliant, and I'm so grateful to get to learn from them each day. Also so grateful for the icon that is @marthagimbel.bsky.social! Starting something is hard and scary. But much less so with Martha at the helm. We at @budgetlab.bsky.social are so beyond fortunate to have her.
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Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Last April @natasharsarin.bsky.social Danny Yagan and I launched @budgetlab.bsky.social. We were excited about our team and what we were planning to produce - but absolutely could not have predicted this wild year 1/
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Today is Tax Day. And while few people enjoy paying taxes, they want a fair system. That system is in danger right now. My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social pinions with former IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel is here: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | It’s not just tariffs. Trump is creating chaos with taxes, too.
Gutting the IRS enables more people to cheat the government system.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
Great to be back with Squawk Box @cnbc.com discussing the impact of tariffs on inflation and our work at @budgetlab.bsky.social www.cnbc.com/video/2025/0...
cnbc.com
Data says inflation would be coming down if not for trade war escalation, says Yale's Natasha Sarin
Natasha Sarin, former Biden Treasury official, and Joe Lavorgna, former Trump NEC chief economist, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss each expert's thoughts on the economy, Lavorgna's thoughts on the tariff...
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
New from @budgetlab.bsky.social e_Budget_Lab on tariff latest. In aggregate, tariffs are basically at same level they were prior to this "pause" / China increases. And that level is *high* Highest since 1909. Resulting in higher prices for American families, ~$4,400 annually in short-run.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
And thanks to @jacobbogage.bsky.social for his great piece in @washingtonpost.com covering it this morning, here: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
Analysis | Trade rep under fire
In today’s edition … How the IRS turning over migrant tax data to ICE will affect tax revenue ... Rep. Carson gets primary challenger.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Read @budgetlab.bsky.social report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/pot...
budgetlab.yale.edu
The Potential Impact of IRS-ICE Data-Sharing on Tax Compliance
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Worth noting that the IRS has just lost its 3rd commissioner in *this* filing season. That’s unheard of. With tax day around the corner, fair to be worried about this filing season – and what’s to come with respect to our ability to collect taxes and raise revenue
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Losses could be more – and not just with undocumented population – as this action, along with many others, make people more nervous about sharing data with the IRS and skeptical of the tax system writ large.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Hard to know how much of a loss this will be. @budgetlab.bsky.social has a range depending on scope of behavioral adjustment: between ~$150B-$480B over the next decade.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Why? Today, undocumented immigrants pay about $66B in federal taxes, w/ about 2/3 as payroll taxes. As a result of this agreement, this population will worry about tax data being weaponized – and could stop filing taxes and/or shift to work arrangements that won’t withhold.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: The IRS is entering into an agmt to share data about undocumented immigrants with ICE. Historically, the agency promised data would not be used in this way. We estimate the govt will lose ~$300B in the next decade as a result.
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Jacob Bogage @jacobbogage.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
This morning in my “Big, beautiful bill” newsletter: The potential cost of tax noncompliance. IRS’s deal to share confidential taxpayer data with ICE could cost up to *$479 billion* over 10 years, @natasharsarin.bsky.social’s team at Yale finds. More here: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
One of the biggest fears many tax experts have with the agreement between Treasury and DHS is that it will discourage not just undocumented immigrants, but also untold numbers of other taxpayers, from filing their taxes.
For the purposes of the GOP tax bill, that has a monetary cost, and a big one. Sarin’s team at Yale found that rising tax noncompliance from undocumented immigrants — spurred by this new arrangement to provide tax data to immigration officials — could cost up to $479 billion over 10 years.
Some context: That’s nearly a quarter of the $2 trillion House Republicans say they want to cut over 10 years.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
So thrilled to get to speak with @kyla.bsky.social this week on the importance of funding the IRS -- and the risks of decimating the agency. Here's a link to our conversation for @leadingindicator.bsky.social: www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKqz...
youtube.com
Economist Explains Why DOGE Cuts to the IRS Will Backfire
YouTube video by Leading Indicator
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Full report from Harris Eppsteiner and John Ricco here: budgetlab.yale.edu/news/250319/...
budgetlab.yale.edu
Illustrative Distributional Effects of Policies Consistent with the House Concurrent Budget Resolution for Fiscal Year 2025
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
This is illustrative ofc, will ultimately depend ofc on how the legislative debate evolves. But we think combining spending and tax provisions to understand overall distribution is important -- so it's what we plan to do in the months ahead. Post piece: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
Analysis | 2028 POV on 2025 Dems
In today’s edition … Analysis shows Republican tax cuts and benefit reductions will cause loss of income for poorest taxpayers.
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Grateful to @jacobbogage.bsky.social for covering @budgetlab.bsky.social new report on the distributional effects of the House-passed Budget Resolution. Overall: huge tax cuts for higher-income families are partially paid for by cutting healthcare and SNAP, *raising costs* for the bottom 40%
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
"When you meet those dying children and look into their eyes and hold their hands and feel faint heartbeats flutter, you can’t bear the gleeful laughter. You see children just like your own and hang your head in shame." www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Musk Said No One Has Died Since Aid Was Cut. That Isn’t True.
A journey through the front lines of global poverty shows that when the world’s richest men slash aid for the world’s poorest children, the result is sickness, starvation and death.
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Groundwork Collaborative @groundwork.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
The top 1% already dodges $200 billion in taxes every year. Slashing the IRS means less enforcement ➡️ billions back in the pockets of wealthy tax cheats. It’s anything but efficient. @natasharsarin.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Lots of room to reform IRS. Agency shouldn't be manually transcribing paper returns or running on 1960s-era technology. But building that future state requires investing in the IRS -- not destroying it. Much more in our @budgetlab.bsky.social report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/rev...
budgetlab.yale.edu
The Revenue and Distributional Effects of IRS Funding
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Beyond revenue losses, tax system where only some play by rules is unfair Wage earners already pay all they owe (taxes automatically withheld) Gutting IRS means carte blance to cheat for those who accrue income in opaque ways, disprop at top Top 1% = $200B unpaid taxes/yr
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Chaos at IRS is already impacting filing season. WIld facts: 1/ Phone service is down. In part, bc employees are queing up at shared computers to send DOGE's "5 things" emails rather than manning phones 2/ Tax receipts appear low, suggests voluntary compliance already falling
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natasharsarin.bsky.social @natasharsarin.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
This Admin is considering shrinking the IRS by 50% to levels not seen since 1960. @budgetlab.bsky.social estimates this costs at least $400B ($350 net) in uncollected taxes over a decade. Could be closer to $2.4T if taxpayers comply less when they realize no tax police on the beat.
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