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Natalie

@natalievotes.bsky.social
904 followers 1.6K following 475 posts

PhD student, political strategist, Pol Sci researcher & scientist-practitioner: US election law • voting rights • Latino vote • Pol Psych (intergroup relations) • quant methods

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Natalie @natalievotes.bsky.social · 15h
One of the things I am enjoying at this point in my PhD training is turning my ideas into mathematical notation. Those variables represent real, live observed phenomena.
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Natalie @natalievotes.bsky.social · 16h
It's more than this. State Dem parties are training and organizing poll watchers, as well as observers for every other part of the voting profess.
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Natalie @natalievotes.bsky.social · 16h
Not a celeb defender but Kelly Clarkson is a woman who minds her own business and doesn't start drama, who walked into a store asking to spend her hard earned $$ on a little whimsy in this hellscape, just to be told No You Can't by a shitty man who didn't follow the rules and then lied abt it.
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Natalie @natalievotes.bsky.social · 16h
Ok but will they also pay for the damn journal publishing fees? Kind of not kidding...
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Natalie @natalievotes.bsky.social · 16h
Here's the issue I have w/ this: the military will not accept recruits with ADHD and other disabilities but so many public service jobs will still give you the job, as long as you can fulfill the duties of the job. Don't get pissed that the civilian federal or state gov't will give me a way to serve
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Katie Spoon @kspoon.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
As a PhD student designing my first survey, I added what I thought was a throwaway question at the end. To my surprise, thousands of academics answered it! The paper is out today: doi.org/10.1093/pnas...
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Matthew Gertz @mattgertz.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
STOP LETTING JD VANCE MEET POPES
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Julia Curlee @juliacurlee.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
This is not a peace plan. It’s a surrender plan. 72 hours: sanctions on Russian diesel lifted, a threat to blind Ukraine’s military, a friendly call with Putin, Zelensky told to leave office, Kash Patel headed to Moscow. Reject this betrayal. Slava Ukraini @anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu
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Dante Atkins @danteatkins.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
When Dems talk about the Ilhan Omar situation, they need to stop using language that implies that Omar might have done anything wrong. Trump is not "investigating" Omar. They are trying to denaturalize and deport a sitting Congressmember by scrutinizing decades old paperwork from when she was a kid
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Tyler, from the Internet (Haunted) @tylerfromtheinternet.com · 11/10/2026
people keep making movies where the premise is "it's kind of like a man but it looks like a monstrous freak but it's nice and sexy and doesn't abuse the woman so it's basically the most romantic thing ever" and men keep not getting it.
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Natalie @natalievotes.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
True patriot
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Natalie @natalievotes.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
National treasure, indeed!
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🦋💔🇺🇸SEB🇺🇸💔🦋 @sebastiangarof5.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
F_ck ICE
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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
After seeing so many elites—in business, media, politics, more—eagerly jump on board with Trumpism fascism, or weakly acquiesce to it, the public is craving leaders who act like this awfulness is serious and bad. Yes, the public. The real public. A majority of the people, not only right-wing volk.
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sarah jeong @sarahjeong.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
this is fucking insane. fuck this country. jesus.
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Matt Binder @mattbinder.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
the tech industry is about to invent books
Andrew Yeung 
@andruyeung
X.com
We created gyms because modern day work no
longer required physical activity. Without exercise,
our muscles atrophy.
I predict we'll need gyms for our brains too, once Al
starts doing our knowledge work.
10:53 PM • 10/4/26 • 1.3M Views
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Melissa Gira Grant @melissagiragrant.com · 07/10/2026
reading this, recalling how quickly the killing of Minnesota Rep. Melissa Hortman slipped out of the news
phoenixnewtimes.com
Congressional candidate is raped while repairing her campaign signs
Embarrassed, she initially didn’t want to report attack. Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office's investigation is ongoing.
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Natalie @natalievotes.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
I am happy to report that my sparse use of Amazon means my "About Me" is information I've given Amazon myself, such as the city where I likely live. Great job knowing my latest shipping address!
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Kai Ryssdal @kairyssdal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
If your newscast says Hastert was 'tied to' a child sex abuse scandal, you're failing your listeners.
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ashley fairbanks @ziibiing.com · 05/10/2026
this is my favorite example ever of an interactive clearly, creatively illustrated concept
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Natalie @natalievotes.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Terrifying, truly
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Jay Kuo @nycjayjay.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
This is a community note for the ages.
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Natalie @natalievotes.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
And they say bureaucracy is boring
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Kashana @kashana.blacksky.app · 20/09/2026
Americans: oh, look, a systemic issue. I will solve it individually
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rax ‘levon honkers’ king @raxkingisdead.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Who the fuck starts a conversation like that?
I just sat down!
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Ian Boudreau @ianboudreau.com · 11/09/2026
Pretending the days after Sept. 11, 2001 were some kind of gauzy Hallmark special when we came together as a country is nauseating and ahistorical. The country went completely insane and has not recovered
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ashley fairbanks @ziibiing.com · 12/09/2026
i am incredibly excited to share our research about how paying people’s rent through mutual aid made an impact on minnesota this year we accidentally collected more data than anyone ever has for an effort like this, and can very seriously say we prevented an eviction bubble that everyone expected
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John Walton @thatjohn.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
this second session being impossible to schedule is the most D&D thing you could possibly imagine
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Ben Collins @bencollins.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
The Milo stuff is the perfect picture of fascism. You think you're protected because you go as big as you can on racism, you spend years harassing the movement's perceived enemies, you even disavow your own sexuality. They'll still throw you in a cage over the tiniest disagreement already forgotten.
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Natalie @natalievotes.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
🤦🏽‍♀️
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Greg Jericho @grogsgamut.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Happy 10 year anniversary of the best mic drop on Twitter. Hard to believe it’s been so long! Congrats @astrokatie.com

Katie Mack @AstroKatie
16h
Honestly climate change scares the heck out of me and it makes me so sad to see what we're losing because of it.

Gary P Jackson (RAT) @gary4205
@AstroKatie Maybe you should learn some actual SCIENCE then, and stop listening to the criminals pushing the #GlobalWarming SCAM!

Katie Mack @AstroKatie
@gary4205 | dunno, man, I already went and got a PhD in astrophysics.
Seems like more than that would be overkill at this point.
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Dante Atkins @danteatkins.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Nothing against the OP poster at all, but just because this has come up a lot: The vote at the resolutions committee was not unanimous. The vote for final passage was unanimous, as the entire resolutions package passed unanimously. The AP, like so much else in media, is not exactly up on this.
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
This paper shows that immigration enforcement can _increase_ crime. Undocumented immigrants already have the lowest crime rate, but tough-on-immigration policy makes immigrants less likely to report crime. So immigration enforcement worsens the problem it was ostensibly meant to solve
Community Engagement and Public Safety: Evidence from
Crime Enforcement Targeting Immigrantst
By FELIPE GONÇALVES, ELISA JÁCOME, AND EMILY WEISBURST*
We study the role of victim reporting in the production of public safety.
We examine the Secure Communities program, a crime-reduction policy that involved police in detecting unauthorized immigrants and increased deportation fears in immigrant communities. We find that the policy reduced the likelihood that Hispanic victims report crimes to police and increased offending against Hispanics. The number of reported crimes is unchanged, masking these opposing effects. We show that reduced reporting drives the offending increase and provide the first elasticity of offending to victim reporting in the liter-ature, calculating that a 10 percent decline in reporting increases offending by 7.9 percent. (JEL J15, K37, K42)
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ProPublica @propublica.org · 27/07/2026
The FDA won’t tell Americans where their generic drugs are made, so ProPublica did it instead. Use information from your prescription label to locate the factory and see if the plant has a history of inspection violations.
projects.propublica.org
Where Was My Generic Prescription Drug Made? - Rx Inspector - ProPublica
The FDA won’t tell Americans where their generic drugs are made, so ProPublica did it instead. Use information on your prescription label to locate the factory and see inspection reports.
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Joel S. @joelhs.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
We still have the cultural image that actual Nazis were defeated in the 1940's, and the remaining Nazis are either unemployed basement-dwellers or fringe militias in Idaho. There is still a reluctance by media and business leaders to say openly that the world's wealthiest person is a Nazi.
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Erin Biba @erinbiba.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
If you’re surprised Bernie is supporting misogyny you haven’t been listening to women for (checks watch) ten fucking years.
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Matt Ford @mford.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Didn’t know that Ben Affleck’s mom was one of the original Freedom Riders. RIP.
hollywoodreporter.com
Chris Affleck, Mother of Oscar Winners Ben and Casey Affleck, Dies at 83
A schoolteacher, she was recently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and died June 2, her family announced.
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Natalie @natalievotes.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
😭😭😭
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Thor Benson @thorbenson.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Now I'm just a simple country lawyer but this guy sounds like a criminal
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Rabbi Danya Ruttenberg @theradr.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Dear Media. Vatican II wasn’t just about praying or not in Latin. *Vatican II decided to be less antisemitic. By a lot. * And now Pope Leo (like Francis) is reading the Bible HARD, all that “love immigrants” & “care for others” “🖕 Empire” stuff?! This story is not complicated.
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derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Justice Brown Jackson's argument for birthright citizenship is very moving. I recommend reading it in full. An excerpt with alt-text below. “The Reconstruction Amendments were an anticaste, antisubordination reset for the Nation, not a mere spot treatment for the dark stain of slavery.” — KBJ
Still, most freed Blacks resisted the pressure to self-deport. Instead, many started organizing toward the creation of the kind of Nation the colonizationists opposed—one that guaranteed liberty and justice for all. In the decades leading up to the ratification of the Fourteenth Amendment, Black Americans organized and gathered at more than 600 local and national conventions across the country. There, delegates erected the political and intellectual scaffolding for the Fourteenth Amendment and, later, for the Black Civil Rights Movement more generally. 

Critically for present purposes, these visionaries already understood themselves to be American citizens. “The refrains ‘we are Americans’ and ‘we are citizens’ echoed in conferences throughout the North.” Moreover, “[b]irthright figured importantly” as “delegates frequently characterized their status as that of native-born citizens.” The delegates argued that, as such, they had the requisite allegiance, so, at a minimum, the Federal Government owed them the duty of protection. 

The famed orator Frederick Douglass was one of these delegates. Capturing the spirit of the moment, Douglass proclaimed that Chief Justice Taney—the author of the majority opinion in Dred Scott v. Sandford, 19 How. 393 (1857)—“[could] do many things, but he [could not] … change the essential nature of things.” In the absence of the artificial evils of slavery and racial subordination, Douglass explained, “the glorious birthright of our common humanity, will become the inheritance of all the inhabitants of this highly favored country.”

Do note this: The citizenship thesis of the Colored Conventions was thus not that some new status should be created and conferred on freed Blacks.It was instead that freed Blacks already had a rightful claim to citizenship because they had been born on American soil. After all, the Nation, from its founding, had “boldly proclaim[ed] that all men are born free and equal, and that consequently life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, are inherent in every individual, vested inalienably by natural birthright.” No ideal was more inherently American. Now, “rest[ing their] cause on the republican standard of the revolutionary Fathers,” freed Blacks were “knock[ing] at the doors of the constitution and demand[ing] an entrance.” And “[i]f … asked what evidence [they] bring to sustain [their] qualifications for citizenship, [they would] offer them certificates of … BIRTH and NATIVITY.” Would the Nation live up to its promise?

Such universalist appeals were a conscious choice. Yes, Black Americans had suffered a singular wrong. And yes, they had “fought and bled” for the Union, paying a steep price for their freedom. But the delegates did not rest on these laurels. Rather, they drew upon the moral and political force of the universal principles that were already core to the Nation’s identity.

That bears repeating: Freed Blacks did not advocate for a unique set of rules that catered only to their situation. Nor did they seek to advance their own position relative to, or at the expense and exclusion of, other marginalized groups.Instead, those whose gatherings helped galvanize the push for full equality understood that “[a] diverse origin does not disprove a common nature, nor does it disprove a united destiny.” The firmest foundation for freedom would require an anticaste reset—“both for his sake and for ours”—and would benefit all.

During his U. S. Senate candidacy, Abraham Lincoln developed a similar vision. In the lead-up to the now-famous Lincoln-Douglas debates, Lincoln explained that the promise of liberty and equality in the Declaration of Independence “was held sacred by all, and thought to include all.” Lincoln expressly and intentionally linked the fate of Black Americans and immigrant groups (“among us perhaps half our people who are not descendants at all” of the Founders), and noted that the Nation’s future hinged on a universal definition of citizenship that excluded neither. He explained that the Declaration’s promise that “all men are created equal” was the “electric cord … that links the hearts of patriotic and liberty-loving men together,” regardless of race or descent.

The case was made. First, there was war. And then, the delegates’ (and Lincoln’s) universalist view of citizenship made its mark on the Constitution.
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ProPublica @propublica.org · 01/07/2026
Leonard Leo is a lawyer, but he's never argued a case in court. He's never held elected office. But for years he rebuilt the American legal system, resulting in the Supreme Court's right-wing supermajority. (Published Oct. 2023)
propublica.org
We Don’t Talk About Leonard: The Man Behind the Right’s Supreme Court Supermajority
The inside story of how Leonard Leo built a machine that remade the American legal system — and what he plans to do next.
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Natalie @natalievotes.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Enron, but with eggs
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
"Why should Pennsylvania, founded by the English, become a Colony of Aliens, who will shortly be so numerous as to Germanize us instead of our Anglifying them, and will never adopt our Language or Customs, any more than they can acquire our Complexion." - Ben Franklin on Emmers' German ancestors
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Dems have performed better in years they ran left—06, 08, 18—but that’s likely because those were also strong turnout years. The best evidence shows progressives don’t outperform moderates, or vice versa. A reasonable read is that progressive primary wins reflect an energized base.
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