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NIcholas A. R. Fraser

@narfraser.bsky.social
535 followers 1.5K following 137 posts

(he/him) forensic systems auditor, political scientist, migration & multiculturalism expert @utoronto.ca; RT is not agreement/endorsement; #FirstGen nicholasarfraser.com

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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Evidence-based policy? I audited Canada’s processing of 178+ asylum cases. My Senate briefing is cited in the SOCI 6th report. #BillC12 is now law. Roll back procedural rights, get more litigation & waste. See my @ca.theconversation.com article: #CdnPoli #PolicySky #LawSky #AcademicSky
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Bill C-12 won’t save time and money. Why? It ignores how access to competent & ethical legal counsel: —> REDUCES withdrawn/abandoned (WA) asylum claims We tried this before Harper’s DCO policy: - triggered an 11% cost surge - WA claims increased by 46% #C-12 #Immigration #SenateofCanada
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Bill C-12 won’t save time and money. Why? It ignores how access to competent & ethical legal counsel: —> REDUCES withdrawn/abandoned (WA) asylum claims We tried this before Harper’s DCO policy: - triggered an 11% cost surge - WA claims increased by 46% #C-12 #Immigration #SenateofCanada
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
The Empirical Evidence for the Bill C-12 Debate 🧵 Many discuss the human rights risks. My analysis complements this discussion by looking at what makes immigration procedures more or less efficient. #C-12 #RefugeeLaw #Immigration #DataAnalytics #EvidenceBasedPolicy #SenateofCanada
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
@utoronto.ca supported research 🔬
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
🧵 (8) Full Article: "More than advocates: Lawyers' role in efficient refugee status determination" Canadian Public Administration, 65(4), 647-666. DOI: lnkd.in/gW5G5ARS Technical Annex on Senate website: lnkd.in/g9aqC-bh Proud to serve as an Expert of Record for the SOCI committee!
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
🧵 (7) Gov't must partner with civil society. Bill C-12 is based on the same logic of the DCO policy: strip procedural rights away to speed up procedures. It doesn't work. You cannot shortcut your way to a functional system without creating massive administrative churn and cost.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
🧵 (6) Over 80% of IRB Members agree that specialized counsel makes the process more efficient. Lawyers act as information extractors, ensuring files are hearing-ready and reducing the need for lengthy, unorganized proceedings.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
🧵 (5) Ethical and competent counsel: 1. (informally) pre-screen refugee applicants (lawyers representing applicants); 2. help IRB Members make sense of claims; and 3) provide legal advice that improves decision-making (IRB's Legal Services) and reduces litigation.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
🧵 (4) I found that the DCO policy triggered an 11% surge in operational costs and a 46% abandonment rate. It failed to make immigration procedures more efficient. We must remind policymakers of this now.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
🧵 (3) The Harper government tried what the Carney government is attempting. My research tested whether the Harper government's Designated Country of Origin (DCO) policy effectively met its stated goal of making procedures more efficient by reducing the number of withdrawn/abandoned refugee claims.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
🧵 (2) Sadly, there are very few empirical studies on what makes immigration procedures efficient. My research 🔬 addresses this gap. My own audit of 178,873 cases (SSHRC-funded and done at UofT) seriously challenges the notion that scaling back procedural rights makes procedures more efficient.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
The Empirical Evidence for the Bill C-12 Debate 🧵 Many discuss the human rights risks. My analysis complements this discussion by looking at what makes immigration procedures more or less efficient. #C-12 #RefugeeLaw #Immigration #DataAnalytics #EvidenceBasedPolicy #SenateofCanada
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Great points and tips! When I taught at Harvard, one strategy I used was getting students to present their term paper to the whole class — it was a seminar so it was feasible. I graded them on their slides, how well they presented them, and on how they handled the Q & A session.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Amazing 🤩 work!
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Program on US-Japan Relations, Harvard University @harvardusjapan.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Read "Politically aggressive social media users are creating most of the anti-immigrant content," in the Conversation @theconversation.com by Nicholas A.R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social (2022-23). theconversation.com/politically-...
theconversation.com
Politically aggressive social media users are creating most of the anti-immigrant content
Being selective about the platforms that we spend our time on, and learning how to handle social media conflict will help the digital ecosystem for all of us.
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Sarah Longwell @sarahlongwell25.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
"Most members of Generation Z were still children when Trump came down the escalator…They don’t view Trump as sui generis or beyond the pale, because he’s been the dominant force in our politics for as long as they’ve been politically aware." www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
The Disappointment of Young Trump Voters
Americans under 30 swung to the right in 2024, but they’re not getting what they voted for.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
We need this everywhere.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Politically aggressive social media users are creating most of the anti-immigrant content (below 👇🏻) theconversation.com/politically-...
theconversation.com
Politically aggressive social media users are creating most of the anti-immigrant content
Being selective about the platforms that we spend our time on, and learning how to handle social media conflict will help the digital ecosystem for all of us.
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Phillip Lipscy @lipscy.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
I was interviewed by @asahi.com about the recent Japanese election (article is in Japanese) www.asahi.com/articles/ASV...
asahi.com
ポピュリズムの潮流下でも既存政党は踏ん張れる 米識者がみた衆院選:朝日新聞
■トロント大教授兼東京大教授 フィリップ・リプシー氏 自民党が圧勝した今回の衆院選を、海外の日本研究者はどう見るのか。日本政治が専門で、トロント大学と東京大学で教授を兼任するフィリップ・リプシー氏に聞…
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Nancy Levine Stearns @nancylevinestearns.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
🚨 Google Fulfilled ICE Subpoena Demanding Journalist’s Bank and Credit Card Numbers Trump admin is targeting journalists and those who dissent. Google is complicit. $GOOGL theintercept.com/2026/02/10/g...
theintercept.com
Google Fulfilled ICE Subpoena Demanding Student Journalist’s Bank and Credit Card Numbers
Amandla Thomas-Johnson didn't know how much information ICE requested in a subpoena now. Google never gave him a chance to fight it.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Politically aggressive social media users are creating most of the anti-immigrant content (below 👇🏻) theconversation.com/politically-...
theconversation.com
Politically aggressive social media users are creating most of the anti-immigrant content
Being selective about the platforms that we spend our time on, and learning how to handle social media conflict will help the digital ecosystem for all of us.
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The Japan Times @japantimes.co.jp · 10/02/2026
Commentary: Takaichi’s landslide victory demonstrated that when candidates find compelling issues that affect their lives, young people show up.
ebx.sh
Japan’s youth are quietly securing their nation’s future
Young voters didn’t just express opinions in polls, they showed up at voting stations in increased numbers, many for the first time.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
Download the preprint version of their paper here 👇🏻 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
papers.ssrn.com
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
Opposition parties offer more attractive policies … BUT … Japanese voters trust the LDP brand (the safe bet). Recent studies show this 👇🏻 effectivegov.uchicago.edu/podcast/do-v...
effectivegov.uchicago.edu
Do Voters Sometimes Support Parties They Actually Disagree With?
In elections across democracies, we assume voters cast ballots for candidates whose policies align with their interests. But what happens when that's not the case? This week, we unpack a political puz...
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
#JapanElection2026 🇯🇵 Takaichi’s big electoral win reflects desire for affordability, unity, stability in the face of uncertainties created by great powers (China 🇨🇳 and the US 🇺🇸) Voters turned to Japan’s 🇯🇵 dominant party: the LDP to navigate these uncertain times.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
Amazing talk!
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Kai Arzheimer @kai-arzheimer.com · 09/02/2026
2025 #ThrowBackPaper (open access): In (Western) Europe, #Islamophobia is closely linked to #farright attitudes. But both are unrelated to religiosity 📄🔁📊
journals.sagepub.com
Islamophobia in Western Europe is unrelated to religiosity but highly correlated with far right attitudes - Kai Arzheimer, 2025
The far right’s relationship with religion has become a major focus of current research. Even in Western Europe, one of the most rapidly secularising areas of t...
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The Japan Times @japantimes.co.jp · 09/02/2026
Takaichi’s big victory might not be a mandate for big spending with fiscal hawks in the LDP and the bond market keeping a lid on stimulus spending.
ebx.sh
Takaichi’s big victory might not be mandate for big spending
Fiscal hawks in the LDP and the bond market are expected to keep a lid on stimulus spending.
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The Japan Times @japantimes.co.jp · 09/02/2026
After a crushing debut defeat, Japan’s Centrist Reform Alliance faces a long road back to relevance — starting with a change in leadership.
ebx.sh
The long road to recovery after the CRA’s election loss
The new party must find new leadership after a crushing debut defeat.
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CSIS Korea Chair @korea.csis.org · 07/02/2026
🟥The Impossible State | Feb 10, 11 AM ET In next week's episode, @csis.org @geopolitics.csis.org @victordcha.bsky.social, Senior Associate Adam Farrar, and Igor Khrestin unpack Trump’s 2026 National Defense Strategy—and what it means for the Korean Peninsula. Learn more: csis.org/events/impos...
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CSIS Korea Chair @korea.csis.org · 07/02/2026
🎙️ In a new episode of @koreaeconinst.bsky.social Eye on Korea, Ellen Kim discusses China’s use of economic coercion and strategies for collective resilience, drawing on her new book coauthored with @victordcha.bsky.social and @andysaulim.com ▶️ youtu.be/vAGiQk6DMvk?...
youtu.be
How to Fight Back Against China's Economic Coercion | Eye on Korea Ep. 26
YouTube video by Korea Economic Institute of America
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Omg. WTF is Happening? @lalahaenzy.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Sir Ian McKellen performing a monologue from Shakespeare’s Sir Thomas More on the Stephen Colbert show. Never have I heard this monologue performed with such a keen sense of prescience. Nor have I ever been in this exact historical moment.TY Sir Ian, for reaching us once again. #Pinks #ProudBlue
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Can AI 'vibe research' replace social science? Experiments in research design, planning, data collection, analysis, & writing with Claude Code New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Andy Hall www.niskanencenter.org/can-ai-vibe-...
niskanencenter.org
Can AI ‘vibe research’ replace social science? - Niskanen Center
AI tool improvement is compounding fast enough for researchers to start using tools like Claude Code for real social science tasks.
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uoft-poli-sci.bsky.social @uoft-poli-sci.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Join the Centre for the Study of the United States at Munk School on March 23 for “Backtalking to Save Democracy,” featuring Kimberlé W. Crenshaw, a pioneering scholar and writer on civil rights, Black feminist legal theory, race, racism, and the law. munkschool.utoronto.ca/event/backta...
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uoft-poli-sci.bsky.social @uoft-poli-sci.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
#Minneapolis: @uoft-poli-sci.bsky.social @lucanway.bsky.social on ICE's largest immigration 'operation' ever and why we should not become complacent on @cbcradiocanada.bsky.social. www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...
cbc.ca
© CBC/Radio-Canada 2026. All rights reserved.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
media.tenor.com
a man is dancing on a stage with a memeguy.com watermark on the bottom
ALT: a man is dancing on a stage with a memeguy.com watermark on the bottom
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Efrén Pérez @efrenpolipsy.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
Minnesota Proved MAGA Wrong
The pushback against ICE exposed a series of mistaken assumptions.
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Efrén Pérez @efrenpolipsy.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
All systems of oppression depend on the consensus of some of the oppressed. -Sidanius and Pratto (1999) See also recent, powerful work by Irene Vega (UC Irvine) and David Cortez (Notre Dame) www.propublica.org/article/alex...
propublica.org
Two CBP Agents Identified in Alex Pretti Shooting
The two federal immigration agents who fired on Minneapolis protester Alex Pretti are identified in government records as Border Patrol agent Jesus Ochoa and Customs and Border Protection officer Raym...
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Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
My favorite genre of Epstein emails are powerful people emailing WITH JEFFREY EPSTEIN about how MeToo has gone too far and the woke mob must be stopped.
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Efrén Pérez @efrenpolipsy.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
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Sherrilyn Ifill @sifill.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
More attention here, please.
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Alexander F. Gazmararian @agazmararian.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
New review article on the political economy of the clean energy transition: www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
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Naheed Nenshi @naheednenshi.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Now we can confirm what we’ve always known: this is a separatist government. www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...
ctvnews.ca
Smith says caucus members can sign any petition they want to, including on separation
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says members of her caucus can sign whatever petitions they want to, including one pushing for a referendum on the province’s independence from Canada.
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...
theglobeandmail.com
Opinion: Donald Trump wants to make an example out of Canada. How will we prepare?
We must urgently strengthen our capacity to endure whatever this wildcard President throws at us
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NIcholas A. R. Fraser @narfraser.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Canadians are seriously rethinking deep trade ties with the US. #Canada #Trade youtu.be/-1bBEj9biOo
youtu.be
Andrew Coyne interview: It's a New World. Canada Must Adapt
YouTube video by Energi Media
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Brennan Center @brennancenter.org · 01/02/2026
The federal government has no authority to demand confidential voter information from the states. Making it a bargaining tool to stem the violence in Minnesota is a gross abuse of power. bit.ly/4bj8dL3
brennancenter.org
Bondi Links Minneapolis Violence to Voter Data
The attorney general laid bare the administration’s plan to interfere with the midterms.
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Dee Chan @deechan17.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
We are all immigrants. Unless you came over on the Mayflower. I am an immigrant to Canada having grown up in the US. America was built by immigrants. Some people have forgotten that.
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 29/01/2026
Ossoff: "This is a seismic event. This should have people across the country absolutely shook. This is a huge deal. This is an FBI raid on the Fulton County Elections office ... This is a shot across the bow at the midterm elections. He tried to steal power when he lost it in 2020."
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Adam Parkhomenko @adamparkhomenko.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Seems like a good video for his trial
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