iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Congrats!! Und toll, dich in Österreich zu haben 😊

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Kate Mackenzie @katemac.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Goated quote from the late Marty Weitzman in @geoffmann.bsky.social lecture at Sydney Uni SSPS

“To summarize, the economics of climate change
consists of a very long chain of tenuous inferences fraught with big uncertainties in every
link: beginning with unknown base-case GHG emissions; compounded by big uncertainties
about how available policies and policy levers will affect actual GHG emissions; compounded
by big uncertainties about how GHG flow emissions accumulate via the carbon cycle into
GHG stock concentrations; compounded by big uncertainties about how and when GHG
stock concentrations translate into global average temperature changes; compounded by
big uncertainties about how global average temperature changes decompose into specific
changes in regional weather patterns; compounded by big uncertainties about how adapta-
tions to, and mitigations of, climate change damages at a regional level are translated into
regional utility changes via an appropriate ‘‘damages function’’; compounded by big
uncertainties about how future regional utility changes are aggregated into a worldwide utility
function and what its overall degree of risk aversion should be; compounded by big uncer-
tainties about what discount rate should be used to convert everything into expected present
discounted values. The result of this lengthy cascading of big uncertainties is a reduced form
of truly extraordinary uncertainty about the aggregate welfare impacts of catastrophic climate
change, which is represented mathematically by a PDF that is spread out and heavy with
probability in the tails.

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Just in case we'll be asking ourselves why European industry is not competitive in building trucks anymore in a few years...

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Gerold Riedmann @riedmann.net · 24/08/2026

Ein Grund, warum mir das neue Global Briefing im Montags-STANDARD so viel Freude macht. @economist.com

Economist-Artikel: Does AI stop children from learning? Mit Infografiken zum Verhaltnis zwischen KI-Nutzung und Lernerfolg.

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Für alle die 2026 unter der Hitze gelitten haben/leiden... 2027 wird (mit El Nino Vorhersage) noch einmal deutlich heißer... (und ja eh, mittelfristig werden das alle Jahre, wenn wir nicht endlich in die Gänge kommen...)

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Adam Schwarz @adamjschwarz.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

When the story of why humanity didn't stop climate change is written, it will feature front pages like this. Even as the skies blacken with climate change-induced wildfires, right wing media continue their relentless crusade against measures to tackle it.

The Times: Net zero risks blackouts. Below a photo of French wildfires.

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

100% Zustimmung. Ist zB in UK Standard, tlw. auch schon bei MSc Arbeiten. Die Betreuer*innen die einzigen, die der Prüfung NICHT beiwohnen dürfen. In meiner Erfahrung steigert das oft die Betreuungsqualität - man will ja nicht, dass Kolleg*innen sich denken "was betreut der/die denn daher?"

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Wolf-Peter Schill @wpschill.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

1/ You might not have even thought you needed this, but here it is: an update of the German duck curve! 🦆 The curve shows the distribution of average hourly wholesale prices over the course of the day (normalized with the yearly average price). You can see an ongoing (and not so great) trend:

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Gernot Wagner @gwagner.com · 09/07/2026

"We Cannot Choose to Become Idiots"...except apparently we have. The real litmus test is whether we consider students 22 and 31 'AI illiterate' or patsies on the one hand, or admirably honest. Yes, this is a crisis in (higher) education www.insidehighered.com/news/faculty...

ECON 1170 Midterm & Final Scores
After Serrano made the final in-person, 18 students dropped the class and nine students did not take the exam. The scores of the remaining 59 students are displayed here.

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Can you explain the Austria result? Austria had over 90% renewable power generation in 2025 (with a large share of hydro)

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Amanda Kolson Hurley @amandakhurley.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

Incredible chart from @propublica.org. If you don’t follow enviro stuff closely, your instinct might be that the hold-your-nose solution (carbon capture from fossil fuels) would be the “pragmatic” one versus covering Earth in solar panels, which seems utopian. In fact it’s the opposite

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Christian Stöcker @christianstoecker.de · 29/05/2026

Repeat after me: Elektrifizierung und Erneuerbare gewinnen. Der Mark hat längst entschieden. (das violette Streifchen ganz unten ist übrigens die angeblich „überall“ stattfindende „Renaissance der Atomkraft“).

Iea energy investment landscape

decade of turbulence and transformation for energy investment
Global investment in energy
2026e
USD 3.4 Trillion
2015
USD 2.6 Trillion
Renewables
Oil
Grids
Natural gas
Oil
Renewables
Grids
Efficiency
Coal
Electrification
Nuclear
Low-emissions fuels
Natural gas
Electrification
Efficiency
Coal
Storage
Nuclear
Low-emissions fue

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Lots of Article 6.2 projects going to pop up in the future. Will be interesting to see the details on this.

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Michael Liebreich @mliebreich.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

You Loved the Hydrogen Ladder (I know, Version 6.0 is long overdue!), meet the Electrification Staircase. Electrify Everything is dead; long live Electrify Almost Everything. And here's the road map. mliebreich.substack.com/p/the-electr...

mliebreich.substack.com

The Electrification Staircase is go!

You Loved the Hydrogen Ladder (I know, Version 6.0 is long overdue!), meet the Electrification Staircase. Electrify Everything is dead; long live Electrify Almost Everything. And here's the road map.

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John Hanger @jrfhanger.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Good morning with good news: Australian homes & businesses installed more rooftop solar in April 2026 than in any other month ever! Rooftop solar rose 31% in April over March & doubled 3/2025! 4.2 million (38%) homes had solar by 6/2025! #energysky www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2026/05/05/r...

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

Interessant! Wie schätzen Sie die neue Studie zu den Ausschreibungen steuerbarer Energie von Connect Energy ein? Mir scheint deren Analyse recht schlüssig, dass es hier schon billigere Alternativen gäbe... www.connect-ee.com/wp-content/u...

connect-ee.com

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

If you're looking for even more reasons why it's a bad idea 😅 bsky.app/profile/volt...

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Überschriften mit denen man nicht rechnet 🫠😉

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

p.s. Appreciate the study’s quiet jab: quoting Hayek’s “Pretence of Knowledge” speech… One wonders who that might be aimed at 👀

Friedrich August von Hayek bezeichnete in seiner Nobelpreisrede 1974 die„Anmaßung von Wissen“ als den Irrtum, dass komplexe Wirtschaftssysteme sichzentral so steuern ließen, als lägen alle relevanten Informationen vollständig vor.Seine Kritik richtete sich insbesondere an die ökonomische Zunft, die zunehmendWerkzeuge für staatliche Planungsprozesse bereitstellt. Er forderte stattdesseneinen demütigen Umgang mit der Begrenztheit unseres Wissens. Wissen überKnappheiten, Präferenzen, Risiken und technische Möglichkeiten ist aufMillionen von Akteuren verteilt und verändert sich kontinuierlich. Preiseerfüllen deshalb eine zentrale Koordinationsfunktion: Sie bündeln dezentraleInformationen und machen sie nutzbar, ohne dass eine zentrale Stelle jedesDetail kennen muss, das sie nicht kennen kann. Problematisch wird es, wennPolitik oder Regulierung aus wenigen Durchschnitts- und Modellwerten denEindruck ableitet, die „richtige“ Lösung lasse sich präzise vorab berechnen. SolcheKennzahlen können Orientierung geben, ersetzen aber nicht denEntdeckungsprozess im Markt. Werden sie übergewichtet, steigen die Risiken vonFehlsteuerung, Fehlanreizen und kostspieligen Lock-in-Effekten bzw.Pfadabhängigkeiten. Hayeks Kernaussage lautet daher: Gute Ordnungspolitiksetzt robuste Regeln für Wettbewerb und Verursachergerechtigkeit, statt aufdie Illusion einer vollständigen Steuerbarkeit zu vertrauen.

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

This is based on the study itself: www.connect-ee.com/wp-content/u... and this article: www.welt.de/wirtschaft/p...

connect-ee.com

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

In other words: Get the regulatory environment right - and then let the market do its thing!! This will be smarter - and much cheaper for everyone.

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

This is an underestimated but crucial alliance: Industry/Business associations oppose central planning by government and trust market forces - and embrace that renewable energies and batteries is the only way to a cheap and reliable future electricity market! A hugely influential dynamic!!

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Every market participant would need to take out insurance, which would create demand for stability products; and would force participants to provide electricity for the spot market in a crisis. The study compares it to a mandatory car insurance - creating trust in the market and sharing costs.

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Instead, the study recommends to impose regulatory obligations for market participants to essentially insure themselves against a crisis to avoid free-riding. Internalising this risk would correct a market failure and would lead to a more stable grid - at least cost. A Pigouvian solution!

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

In conclusion, the study emphasizes that the plan to subsidise gas plants would: - increase (and lock-in) costs on consumers and public budgets - guarantee economic rents (profits) for a few players - disincentivise investment + innovation - be incompatible with EU law - increase CO2 emissions

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Beside the economic madness of the proposal, the study also points out that it would very likely fail to pass EU state-aid regulations. It would fail to show the necessity and appropriateness of the proposed model. Not to speak of the climate effects of the additional Gas infrastructure.

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

The study also points out that existing methodologies massively underestimate (compared to other countries) the potential of batteries to react to dynamic pricing. This leads to a self-fulfilling prophecy - without considering innovative dynamics, we're bound to end up in an old (fossil) world.

A screenshot of the study:
• EXPLIZITE LASTFLEXIBILITÄT DURCH INDUSTRIE UNDGEWERBE/HANDEL/DIENSTLEISTUNGEN: Für Deutschland werden nur1,9 % der Spitzenlast im Jahr 2035 als flexibel angenommen. Derentsprechende Wert für UK beträgt dagegen 16,7 % und für Schweden31 %.• HEIMSPEICHER: Es wird angenommen, dass im Jahr 2028 lediglich 3 %und im Jahr 2035 lediglich 24 % der Heimspeicherkapazität auf Preisereagieren. Das bedeutet, dass 22 GW im Jahr 2028 und 36,3 GW im Jahr2035 sich nicht am Markpreis orientieren.• ELEKTROAUTOS: Laut den Annahmen im ERAA-Modell reagierenlediglich 19 % der Ladevorgänge im Jahr 2028 und 31 % derLadevorgänge im Jahr 2035 auf Strompreise, selbst bei hohenPreisspitzen.• WÄRMEPUMPEN: Laut den Annahmen im ERAA-Modell reagieren im Jahr2028 in Deutschland lediglich 3 % der Wärmepumpen auf Strompreiseund im Jahr 2035 lediglich 24 %. Die entsprechenden Werte für dieSchweiz liegen bei 62 % im Jahr 2028 und 73 % im Jahr 2035.

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

It does so by pointing out that the existing analysis by the @bnetza.bsky.social uses inadequate and outdated assumptions and parameters (with cost differences across studies in other EU countries by factors of 2-56 for the same parameter).

A screenshot of the study:
Die Berechnung des „Zuverlässigkeitsstandards“ basiert auf nicht mehrzeitgemäßen Methoden aus der Zeit vor der Strommarktliberalisierung. Durchschnittliche Kennzahlen und festgelegte Referenztechnologien, die für die staatliche Planung zwingende Voraussetzung sind, können die große Bandbreite der technischen und wirtschaftlichen Lösungsmöglichkeiten nicht abbilden. Belege dafür sind die Abweichung länderspezifischer Werte um ein Vielfaches:
• Der Value of Lost Load (VOLL) basiert u.a. auf einer grundsätzlich ungeeigneten Berechnung einer durchschnittsbasierten Zahlungsbereitschaft für die Vermeidung von Lastabwurf, die sich in benachbarten Ländern um fast den Faktor 10 unterscheidet.
• Der Cost of New Entry (CONE) legt administrativ eine Referenztechnologie fest, die für die Aufrechterhaltung der Versorgungssicherheit notwendig ist. Die Kostenannahmen allein für Gasturbinen unterscheiden sich in Deutschland und Polen um mehr als den Faktor 2. Die Kostenannahmen zwischen verschiedenen infrage kommenden Technologien unterscheidet sich um mehr als den Faktor 56.

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

This new study by Connect Energy Economics now says: This mechanism is entirely inappropriate to solve this problem, not needed, and increases costs for everyone.

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

It plans to do this with a mechanism that lets power plants compete to provide capacity & cheapest bidders receive subsidies for it. It's aimed to subsidise mainly gas PP with public money-with a secondary/much smaller role for batteries. Gov claims it needs this and there is no alternative.

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

In essence @bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de aims to subsidise 12.5 GW of new "directable" power stations (about 10 GW of gas/2,5 GW batteries) to avoid the "Dunkelflaute" - a period of no PV/wind that would need to be bridged with other means. www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de/Redaktion/DE...

bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de

Grundsatzeinigung mit der Europäischen Kommission über Eckpunkte der Kraftwerksstrategie

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Bombshell study that questions a key German electricity market policy. tldr: DON'T SUBSIDISE NEW GAS PLANTS WITH PUBLIC MONEY! Most interestingly: it was not (only) commissioned by the renewable industry but (i.a.) by one of DE's main business lobby groups (@dihk.bsky.social)! A 🧵analysing it:

A screenshot showing the title page of the study:

ENDBERICHTERFORDERLICHKEIT UNDGEEIGNETHEIT VONKAPAZITÄTSMECHANISMENÖKONOMISCHE ANALYSE UNDVERGLEICH MIT EINERZUKUNFTSFÄHIGENABSICHERUNGSPFLICHT Studie im Auftrag von BNE Bundesverband neue Energiewirtschaft e. V., DIHK Deutsche Industrie- undHandelskammer, EEX European Energy Exchange AG,VEA Bundesverband der Energie-Abnehmer e. V.

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 20/04/2026

THREAD: The IEA global energy review 2026 * CO2 record high, but growth nearly ground to halt * Clean energy shaved 3bn tonnes off CO2 * Fossil-fuel power pushed into reverse * Age of Electricity "confirmed" * "Extraordinary" solar growth * Batteries up 40% * EVs up 20% 1/10

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Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Heute Abend im Volkstheater Wien. Veranstaltung des Netzwerk Klimajournalismus mit @lukasbayer.bsky.social. Ich freu mich drauf. @iiasa.ac.at www.volkstheater.at/event/332609...

volkstheater.at

CLIMATE OVERSHOOT –WIE KRIEGEN WIR NOCH DIE KURVE? - Volkstheater Wien

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Wolfgang Blau @wblau.bsky.social · 04/04/2026

Why is it so hard to understand a. the difference between primary and secondary energy, and b. why it amounts to journalistic malpractice to compare current renewables capacity with the primary energy provided (and to a large part wasted in the form unused heat) by fossil fuels?

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Auke Hoekstra @aukehoekstra.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Great addition to a recent blogpost from @nworbmot.bsky.social nworbmot.org/blog/solar-b... Most of humans can go 90% solar in 2030. It's mostly northern Europe that's the edge case that also needs loads of wind. And the last 10% fuel... we'll take care of that before too long.

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Randall Munroe @xkcd.com · 02/04/2026

Home Solar xkcd.com/3226/

4-panel comic. (1) [Two people standing next to house with solar panels on roof. Person 2 has a black hat.] PERSON 1: Wait, you got solar panels? I thought you were against renewables. (2) PERSON 2: Oh, definitely. I hate the environment and want to harm it as much as possible. I’d *love* to have an oil furnace. (3) PERSON 2: But the technology just isn’t there and the cost is too high. I despise solar, but it makes more financial sense in my situation. (4) PERSON 2: But with the money I’m saving, I can buy and burn industrial waste in my yard to try to make up for it. PERSON 1: Ah, yeah, carbon onsets.

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Wolfgang Rössler @wolfiroessler.jetzt.at · 21/03/2026

Viktor Orbán redet seit Tagen davon, dass irgendwelche Ukrainer ihn umbringen wollen. Stellt sich heraus: Der russische Auslandsgeheimdienst SWR wollte tatsächlich einen Mordanschlag auf Orbán fingieren, um Putins bestem Mann doch noch die Wahl zu retten. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

washingtonpost.com

To tilt Hungarian election, Russians proposed staging assassination attempt

To aid Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a friend of Russia, in his election, operatives proposed “the Gamechanger” — a staged assassination attempt to stir supporters.

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

„'Entzauberung durch Einbindung' ist keine evidenzbasierte politische Strategie, sondern eine gefährliche Wunschvorstellung"

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Leonhard Gandhi @energy-charts.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

Von Februar auf März 2026 ist der Day-Ahead Börsenstrompreis von Deutschland nur um 0,6 % gestiegen, während Erdgas an der Börse um 43,7 % teurer wurde. 1/2 energy-charts.info/charts/price...

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Moritz Schwarz @moritzpschwarz.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

Super interesting thread - could you expand slightly on what you mean by committing to a CO2 tax? Do you mean in addition to the ETS (and in the German case the national price)?

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Natalia Fabra @nataliafabra.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

1/⚡ For Europe, #competitiveness is a priority. And this has much to do with #energy costs. Yet we keep on relying on #electricity markets that make European industry structurally uncompetitive. Ahead of 6 March, a few thoughts on #energy & #competitiveness 🧵👇

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 13/03/2026

NEW: Why does gas set the price of electricity – and is there an alternative? Make yourself a tea (or grab a beer??) and enjoy my Friday longread on marginal pricing, ideas for market reform – & how to break the link btwn gas & power prices for good www.carbonbrief.org/... 1/8

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Isabella Velásquez @ivelasq3.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

Who needs PowerPoint when you have Quarto and @emilhvitfeldt.bsky.social's extensions?! I wanted to make an image-heavy presentation. Usually, I'd reach for Keynote. But Emil shared quarto-revealjs-editable, which let me stay in Quarto land 🥰 Thanks, Emil! Find it here: github.com/EmilHvitfeld...

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Michael Liebreich @mliebreich.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

I've largely stopped posting #HydrogenSoufflé because it seems distasteful to dance on the graves of so many dreams. But... Aberdeen is flogging its hydrogen bus fleet for scrap. How much money was wasted on this 100% predicable outcome? Will heads roll? aberdeenbusinessnews.co.uk/aberdeen-hyd...

aberdeenbusinessnews.co.uk

Aberdeen Hydrogen bus fleet to be sold off - Aberdeen Business News

Aberdeen City Council is set to sell its entire fleet of 25 hydrogen double-decker buses and exit a £20 million joint venture with oil giant BP, marking the

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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

A tax economist put his entire life savings into a prediction market bet that DOGE wouldn’t cut spending. His wife read the Kalshi comments from the people on the other side and grew *more* confident because “they didn’t seem to understand what they were buying.” He made a 37% return

wsj.com

The Tax Nerd Who Bet His Life Savings Against DOGE

Until Elon Musk came roaring into the nation’s capital, Alan Cole was largely a plain-vanilla investor.

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