iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Part of Oil rise over $100 the last 3 weeks? SPR blew out (lack of pressure) and was approaching statue limit and gave up the ghost. Effectively no SPR draw past four weeks

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Saudi Pipeline Attack Risks ‘Disastrous’ Loss of Oil www.nytimes.com/2026/09/16/b... via @NYTimes Article misses many things 1. Short repair time ignores the obvious. US and Saudi incapable of defending pipeline from more attacks 2. Bab el closure cuts pipeline capacity in half

nytimes.com

Global Oil Prices Could Hit Highest Levels in Months After Saudi Pipeline Attacks

Estimates vary on how long it could take before a crucial pipeline is repaired, but a prolonged shutdown could push oil prices to their highest levels in months.

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Reposted by Mike Donnelly

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 03/09/2026

“Looking just at the long duration component in 2026, we estimate $310bn in ten year equivalents. That's 70% (!!) of new Treasury long duration borrowing this year.”

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

The decline in students attending college is not appreciated nationwide and the massive decline in spending on college

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Gap between health insurance inflation in the PPI and the CPI is a comical 45ppts. Have premiums nationwide fallen 24% or risen 21%? I know what my paystub shows

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

targeting civilian infrastructure dedicated to water is a new red line both nations crosses this week. Iran attacked a Kuwaiti desalination plant on July 17 US attacked this one in Iran on July 18

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

World Cup Miami: England v Norway. England given the Visitor side which is in the sun and has been as much as 30 degrees hotter than the home team side . Massive advantage for Norway

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

the correlation of my more successful friends who did this, as compared to me, is alarmingly high

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

22B in Tariff refunds in May 2026 pushing the effective tariff rate to zero for the month. Massive clawback. (Table 4) fiscaldata.treasury.gov/static-data/...

fiscaldata.treasury.gov

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

One Federal Inflation Measure Says Health Insurance Costs Are Falling. Two Others Disagree.

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

fixed it. officials, with every incentive to lie, say no toll was paid to Iran

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

maybe we don't tariff Canadian Oil ?

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

CPI: Services haven't returned to ~2% since Covid and at 6.7% in April (the m/m annualized rate) showing rapid Energy Price pass thru

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Aka trump does a taco on the blockade due to spiking gas prices

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Something real is happening www.ncregister.com/news/the-new... whether it is good or a symptom of something ill pressuring people to seek community I will leave for others to opine upon @besttrousers.bsky.social ps EconIRL2026??

ncregister.com

The Holy Spirit Is Moving in Manhattan

Young adults are turning out in droves at Masses and other faith-centered gatherings at a trio of parishes in the heart of New York City.

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

aka: US announces is has no intention of honoring the terms of the ceasefire

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 04/04/2026

I am once again begging the Federal Reserve to absorb all the statistical agencies

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

$200 Billion would be bigger than first year request for Iraq (a land war) and more than all the money for Ukraine

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Reposted by Mike Donnelly

Adam Schwarz @adamjschwarz.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Reporter: Why didn't you notify Japan that you were going to attack Iran? Trump next to the Japanese PM: "Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Habour? You believe in surprise I think much more so than us."

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

aka "I'm here for Fed Independence"

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

Red hot PPI in Jan and Feb. Rate cuts? i don't think so

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

US Service Sector is: down the last 6m (S&P) up the last 6m (ISM)

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Reposted by Mike Donnelly

George Pearkes @peark.es · 14/03/2026

1) Roughly 10-15% of the crude shortfall best case near term 2) essentially zero change in demand below $120 3) sure but the scope for rapid demand destruction is still small 4) doesn’t help at all near term because electricity and liquid carbon fuels aren’t direct substitutes.

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

Inflation in PPI: services hot goods not @usbls.bsky.social imo: energy down, prices constant (aka cost down, sticky prices), & USD$ fell & sellers raised prices to offset in advance & uncertainity

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 19/02/2026

The US effective tariff rate declined in November and December. Noise? Demand Destruction? Supply Chain re-routes? One on One Deals?

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

FFS would the Fed just absorb this agency already

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

I expect consensus to move much higher in the next three weeks (Feb 20, huge delay from Jan 29, due to shutdown)

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

36% of Alaskans said they want to leave the US. I’m sure the admin would be cool if Canada supported this idea. /s

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

Don't be so confident the tariffs aren't showing up in Goods prices. Inflation in Goods was flat for 2.5 years before "liberation day" #CPI #inflation

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

hard to read too much into the Dec data, survey was taken at a strange point in the month, the prior 2 months have to be averaged out. etc. Overall not bad. We need Oct, Nov and Dec PCE data !

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

2022–24: Tight labor markets pulled workers out of gigs & second jobs (CPS) as firms hired aggressively (CES). (Green line>Blue) 2025: Corporate hiring cools → growth reappears in temp, gig & multi-job work (CPS). (Blue line narrows gap) #numbersday #jobs

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

2025: First jobs estimate to the current number. Jobs have steadily been revised lower all year. Nontrivial chance December 50k is revised to a negative number.

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

While I was out: 3Q US GDP data was very strong (eyeroll) it's ~always very strong. US has seasonal issues with GDP data that deflate 1Q and inflate 3Q

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Can we get a president who can grasp basic calendar facts? October and November do not occur during July-Sept

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Reposted by Mike Donnelly

Pitchfork Economics @pitchforkeconomics.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

A new Harvard study—the first large-scale comparison of Amazon, UPS & FedEx drivers—shows what worker power really means: 🔴 Amazon: ~$19/hr, no raises, high turnover. 🟢 UPS (union): ~$35/hr, steady wage growth, long careers. Same job. Different power. Full study → buff.ly/rpn6H5E

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

Tariffs are bad but (surprisingly) not responsible for high coffee prices. US Tariffs on coffee invisible on the global stage

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

@jc-econ.bsky.social "We can count if we want to, or we can leave our data behind, ’cause if we don’t count and if we don’t measure, then the narratives will leave us blind." — “The Safety Dance,” Men Without Hats (1982) — “The Data Dance,” MD (2025)" ...keep my day job?

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 06/11/2025

Sorry but no idea is worth $400 Million per day, every day for 8 years. #tesla #musk

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

Is this a new form of QE? researching....

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

@danielzhao.bsky.social about 10% of Federal workers during shutdowns claim UI and then have to pay it back after getting back pay. Its a hassle, but this shutdown is longer. Rent and mortgages are due Nov 1. What could UI claims look like if Fed workers need it? Roughly this

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

Looking forward to the Fed's comments today. I expect "data dependent" to be entirely removed. There is no data and won't be for some time.

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

Reminder: the GOP could end the shutdown today, they have all the votes they need.

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

Reminder when 1 party holds all the reins, Senate, House and the White House they can pass a budget any time they want.

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 17/10/2025

QT is nearly over Green FRN's are already in QE, Blue T-bills and Red Bonds have ended QT. Only item on the Fed's balance sheet still contracting is MBS (which makes sense)

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

ACA question. corp open enrollment is now. When do the folks on ACA see their new 2026 premiums ? I'm guessing not until next year or there would be a panic

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Reposted by Mike Donnelly

Sara Estep (she/her) @saraestep.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

Aaron is spot on, our paper shows that Trump proposed a 17% reduction in FTEs and currently 34% of senior career staff positions sit empty. Without adequate budget and without protecting these career positions we risk losing this independent analysis. www.americanprogress.org/shareable/mo...

americanprogress.org

More than one-third of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) leadership positions are vacant

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

Coffee tariffs lifting price? No. US prices muted by strong USD$ + lag. Sweden’s free market = world’s highest coffee inflation. Elsewhere, state controls mask true cost. Brazil? Demand destruction when price rose 10% y/y in Feb

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

No it is exactly how this works. And democracy around the world doesn’t have an answer

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 10/09/2025

PPI final demand services fell -0.2% m/m as service prices for trade slid -1.7% m/m. Tariffs hitting demand hard. But Stage 1–4 service inputs all rose — B2B costs are climbing. Price pressures are building further up the pipeline.

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